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Originally Posted by GMScud  Actually not really. While lots of variables factor into injuries- stretching, conditioning, smart play, etc- it's largely random and dumb luck. Not as much as so as flipping a coin, but close. Kinda like JC somehow not blowing out his knee in that preseason game because his foot didn't stick in the turf. Dumb luck. Given last year's miserable rash of injuries to a historically durable group of lineman, it would be pretty unprecedented if it repeated itself just one season later.
Sure there's no real science to it, but isn't wishful thinking what the offseason is all about? |
OK. But using the Law of Averages to say we're due for an injury-free season is bad reasoning, just making sure that kind of reasoning isn't creeping in here.
The Law of Averages says we should have an "average" injury season. Last year's ravage is in the past, and has no bearing on this year. We're not due for an injury-free year any more than we're due to repeat the ravage.
You're right in saying it's dumb luck. But that's why they call it "dumb" luck. It can't even itself out.
What we're really saying here is that last year we had an abnormally high number of games missed along the line. Chances are we won't have to endure that again, as it was a pretty rare event to be that ravaged. But that doesn't mean we should be injury free. The law of averages states that we should have an "average" number of games missed along the line.