Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

Wasn't the guy born in prison?


If so, he'll feel right at home in Oakland. :D

When he stepped onto the field last year, he already had enough recovery time. This is my point, his knee is done and so is his career.

I don't wish anything bad on him, I'm just being realistic.

Enough recovery time?

Do you realize he absolutely shredded his knee blowing out 3 of the 4 major ligaments on 10/30/05??

So less than a year later he was on the field starting opening day, sorry but that clearly was not enough time to fully recover from that injury and you're definitely not being realistic here.

He states he was probably 85-90% healthy when he tried to come back, but in reality I'd bet he was no better than 70-75%. He then required a 2nd surgery on Nov. 30 to clean up the knee, which turned out to be a more serious surgery than the Dolphins initially let on.

I think, if healthy, Culpepper can still be a very good QB in this league. But the problem is he's playing behind this Raiders offensive line, in a brand new system, with brand new teammates, for only a one-year deal. Clearly JaMarcus Russell is the future of the team. So Culpepper is stuck keeping the seat warm for him.

I don't like Duante's chances of doing well this year, even if he's fully healthy. He didn't spend any offseason time with his teammates or with the team's playbook. He's coming in to Oakland and has to learn a totally new system. Oakland's WRs are pretty much garbage, and you have to wonder if their running game will be any better. The only thing they have going for them is their defense, but that can't help Culpepper in what amounts to a one-season audition for his NFL future elsewhere.

If he tries to come onto the field for the Raiders, his career could end. He can't run like he used to be able to, he'll have no protection and when he can't find one of his mediocre WRs, he'll have to try to outrun defenders on a knee that won't let him run very well on it.

It was a bad decision to go to Oakland, he should've chosen a place where he won't be beaten to death.

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?
The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
In 2004 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2004.php), Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
In 2006 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2005.php), Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

It was a bad decision to go to Oakland, he should've chosen a place where he won't be beaten to death.In that case, I suggest he doesn't try NFL football anymore.

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
In 2004 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2004.php), Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
In 2006 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2005.php), Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?
The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
In 2004 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2004.php), Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
In 2006 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2005.php), Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Very good post.
However, I will point out, that WR's / TE's and of course your line, do indeed make the difference in those numbers. Oakland does not have a good DL, nor WR's, nor TE's. While Culpepper has a great amount of talent, and I do think he can return to form, I don't think he'll do it in Oakland. The sub par team will take him down with them.
I said it before, I thought Culpepper was dumb for signing with Oakland, he needs to show the world what he can do. In Oakland he will be the lone star. I wish him luck, but I am not expecting him to have numbers that reflect his talent this year.

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
In 2004 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2004.php), Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
In 2006 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2005.php), Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Chris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Cris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

I honestly don't know why people say this like it's a fact.
Fact is, during Culpepper's best season (04), there was no Chris Carter, and Moss was 3rd on the team in receptions (almost 4th since Robinson had 2 fewer receptions). Nate Burlson was his favorite target that season.
Granted Moss missed 3 games, but Culpepper spread it around to others including Jermaine Wiggins who led the team with 71 receptions.

ps- Cris Carter in his prime????? 2 years at the end of his career you call in his prime? Culpepper had him in 2000 and 2001 (although only for 11 games in 01). There is no doubt that Moss and Carter were a great combo, but fact is, Culpepper has shown himself to be a great QB without heavily relying on either of them. We are so quick to dismiss his stats with comments like Moss and Carter, but again I say, look at his 04 numbers, one of the greatest qb seasons EVER and Moss was not his #1 wr.