Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

I do know that Betts is fresh, relatively healthy, and has no theoretical abuse issues. Sellers is the same way...but he can't block for himself.

Well Betts does have a long history of injuries. Does anyone remember that he almost got cut by Gibbs because he was always falling prey to some injury.

And let me reiterate that I really don't care who is playing in the backfield as long as we are running the ball effectively. I just think Portis is clearly the better option at this point. Hopefully, Buges will coach up the linemen and they will gel as the season continues and this whole issue will become a moot.

Well Betts does have a long history of injuries. Does anyone remember that he almost got cut by Gibbs because he was always falling prey to some injury.

And let me reiterate that I really don't care who is playing in the backfield as long as we are running the ball effectively. I just think Portis is clearly the better option at this point. Hopefully, Buges will coach up the linemen and they will gel as the season continues and this whole issue will become a moot.Agreed.

What's wearing him down is the fact that he carried the ball almost 350 times a season for back-to-back seasons. As I've said a number of times, his ypc is way, way, WAY down since leaving Denver, in part because we're trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole by forcing him into an offense that isn't well-designed for his body or talents. He's making it work by compensating with quantity, and that is taking its toll on his body.

Again, this effect is well known in fantasy football circles, but this is a case where the fantasy impact does correlate back to the real game because it directly speaks to a RB's durability and career longevity.

Here's are some of the articles on the topic:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764) (this one isn't bad)
David Yudkin - RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason) (http://footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php) (more FF oriented than "real" NFL based)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part One (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=328)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part Two (Playoff Edition) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=330) (by far the best articles I've read on the phenomenon)
FootballDocs Fantasy Football - Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production (http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_carries_2005.html) (this one is old but it's interesting to see how their predictions panned out)


Excellent post!

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

Wow. He sure does. That's awesome. Imagine if he wasn't banged up all offseason/preseason. With Peterson getting dinged today he has a chance for the rushing title if he stays healthy. (A loud, resounding knock on wood).

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.He's also one of 5 backs to be averaging more than 20 carries a game.

His now 4.2 yards a carry is more than acceptable to run with every game. If he can keep up this pace, we should keep feeding him.

If it falls off, we should go back to emphasizing the pass.

Yup Portis is washed up. He's just got more rushing yards than every back besides Adrian Peterson and Willie Parker.

He had a good game. That's two in a row now. But those were way overdue.

For some reason I didn't think it would take until Week 9 to see it.

portis did well today. Finally the last two weeks he done well, but the other 12 weeks he was shit.

portis did well today. Finally the last two weeks he done well, but the other 12 weeks he was shit.

12 weeks?

yes his first 100 hundred yard game last week was his first in the last 12 weeks that he played in against the jets