Understanding the Issues 2008: Energy

Theoretically though economics would say that as thise "day of reckoning" approaches the costs of oil will become untenable driving a major movement towards alternative fuel.

Yeah I agree and that's what is likely to happen. The problem is that we will have a painful adjustment period while we try to figure things out. And I don't mean painful as in having to eat out less, I mean major global instability. That's the worst case scenario, but I don't think an implausible one. It's not as if countries have never gone to war over oil before.

Let me add FRPLG, that's assuming that there aren't any tenable renewable alternatives ready at the time, and right now we are light years away.

I suspect we don't agree on much but I completely get what you're saying here. Unfortunately this is the kind of extended thinking that most Americans seem to not grasp. Or at least it is the type of thinking that never gets into the media cycle because media types don't think we understand it and politicians think we're even dumber than that.


I'd love to know what a "Big Oil candidate" is though. If it means you think he thinks Big Oil is probably the best driver then I agree with him and don't care if he is a Big Oil candidate. On the other hand if it means to leave Big Oil alone and let it happen normally then I say fugetaboutit! We can incentivise it to happen and make it worth it to them. Win/win baby.

Not sure what you're suspicious about. Anyway, Cheney's energy ceo roundtable that wrote the initial Bush energy policy is classic Big Oil candidate stuff. Way too coincidental that he spends the first years of the term: working w/ oil execs to write a policy, backing an idiotic coup in Venezuela because its government refused to "cooperate" w/ our energy needs, then invading and occupying the most oil rich country in the world that could not possibly defend itself. It was especially amusing when the energy firms out of Texas were caught red-handed cutting supply to California to spike prices (remember the tapes of "Yeah, fuck 'em), after Cheney had spent months defending his buddies and touring the country to tell everyone that the real problem is that we weren't subsidizing oil/gas/coal enough.

Anyway, the real point is that McCain has been right there w/ hardliners like Cheney. The difference is McCain says otherwise, which really makes no sense whatsoever to me because if he talked like other hardliners he'd probably be much more popular w/ the conservative base IMO. I'm just saying I am confused about his positioning. What is he going for?

I don't think people adequately understand the paucity of oil that remains in this world. If you are familiar with peak oil theory (which isn't so much a theory as a geoligical fact) then you know oil will reach a peak point of production after which the quality of oil will be reduced and it will be increasingly more difficult to extract. Increasing oil consumption in the developing world, particularily in China but really everywhere, is only quickening this inevitability. Now some argue that oil production peaked last year, but when it peaks is really irrelevant. What matters is that it will.

That means that at some point we are going to face a major day of reckoning, since not only transportation but the world's entire industrial infrastructure is predicated on access to relatively cheap oil. My point is that a major technological project is needed to avert what will likely be an extremely unstable period, as the world's 3 powers - Europe, America, China, and their respective allies - fight over the remaining scraps.

I think all 3 candidates fall short in doing enough on this and I wish someone would speak to the people honestly about the poisonous effect that increased consumption in a world of declining oil production will have on the stability of the global economic system.

I'm starting to really question if we're anywhere near peak production. I mentioned in an earlier post that geologists are finding huge deposits off the coast of Brazil and other places that were previously out of reach but can now be drilled.

Not that I'm arguing w/ you, cause I don't really know the science, but I suspect that environmental damage will become critical before oil supply becomes critical.

I'm starting to really question if we're anywhere near peak production. I mentioned in an earlier post that geologists are finding huge deposits off the coast of Brazil and other places that were previously out of reach but can now be drilled.

Not that I'm arguing w/ you, cause I don't really know the science, but I suspect that environmental damage will become critical before oil supply becomes critical.

Yeah i've heard stuff like that and I am really in no position to judge when oil production will peak. I just think it makes more sense to start preparing for it now, if for no other reason then to put America in a position to technologically dominate the next century the way it did the last.

Not sure what you're suspicious about. Anyway, Cheney's energy ceo roundtable that wrote the initial Bush energy policy is classic Big Oil candidate stuff. Way too coincidental that he spends the first years of the term: working w/ oil execs to write a policy, backing an idiotic coup in Venezuela because its government refused to "cooperate" w/ our energy needs, then invading and occupying the most oil rich country in the world that could not possibly defend itself. It was especially amusing when the energy firms out of Texas were caught red-handed cutting supply to California to spike prices (remember the tapes of "Yeah, fuck 'em), after Cheney had spent months defending his buddies and touring the country to tell everyone that the real problem is that we weren't subsidizing oil/gas/coal enough.

Anyway, the real point is that McCain has been right there w/ hardliners like Cheney. The difference is McCain says otherwise, which really makes no sense whatsoever to me because if he talked like other hardliners he'd probably be much more popular w/ the conservative base IMO. I'm just saying I am confused about his positioning. What is he going for?
Well if that was the case then Obama & Hillary would know this and they could just add that to their platform and promise that gas prices would drop if they were elected. They know that is not the case so they are not using this as a means to get elected. Also if Cheney is to blame for our high gas prices why is gas going up all over the world?

For what it's worth, crude oil is now $110.74 per barrel.

$4/gallon here we come!

$4/gallon here we come!

We're definitely on our way.

The energy that matters to me is the fuel I put in my car, and the fuel that heats my home and runs my appliances...

And while I yearn for the day of $0.79/gallon (Junior year in college, several gas stations in and around Salisbury, MD hit this mark), I'd just like to see gas and heating oil back to relatively user-friendly levels. We're all used to seeing $3+ that $2 would be a relief, but I'd love to see it cheaper than that.

It was a huge mistake allowing companies like Exxon and Mobil, BP and Amoco, and Chevron and Texaco to merge and limit refinery production. It's a matter of another big hurricane to bust through the Gulf of Mexico before we see $5/gallon nationwide.