Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.

Not looking good for Johnny

The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo. (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiLSpkIoVEXCAKmafB3VTwWEFqJwD93QB5380)

No spin, and I do agree that Obama is heavily favored at this point based on the numbers.

But do those Quinnipac polls account for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader? And do they account for the age bias in likely voters? Because when they say "likely" voters, I'm not certain they're appropriately adjusting for the young voters who tend not to mobilize and the older voters who tend to show up in droves.

From what I know about stats, I'd agree that Obama is favored at this point, simply because sampling errors (as I discussed above) are not enough to make up for a 10 point deficit. But I also think it will be closer than these polls indicate.

And I hear crickets LOL

I've never heard a cricket laugh out loud. Cool...

Sorry I'm not online 24/7 like some of you to respond ASAP. :D



If you have not learned that polls are not trustworthy in the past few decades (especially the last 2 elections), you either haven't been paying much attention or just have your head in the sand and will believe only what makes you happy.

I'm not saying Obama can't win, but I do believe it is a lot closer than most polls indicate (if you examine the internals of the polls) and could go either way.

Also, a LOT can happen in 2 weeks to have a dramatic impact on the outcome, especially economically or even from a terrorist-related action performed solely to sway the election. Osama bin Laden TRIED this last time with a video pretty much endorsing John Kerry 4 days before the election. A video from a terrorist won't do much, but actions could.

BBC NEWS | Americas | Kerry blames defeat on Bin Laden (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4222647.stm)

John Kerry blamed his loss on OBL, but he would've lost anyways due to his own incompetent campaigning.
http://passtheammo.com/wp-content/uploads/john-kerry-hunting-gay.jpg
http://enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0803/081803kerryjohncheesesteak.jpg
http://www.audienceoftwo.com/pics/upload/kerry_drop_football.jpg
http://www.papillonsartpalace.com/JOHN_KERRY_LEAPS_BEFORE_THROWING_FOOTBALL.jpg

http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry7.jpg
http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry4.jpg
http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry9.jpg

http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/6210135_9CFqm-M-1.jpg

http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5924271_5SxjY-M.jpg

http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5924268_emtRv-M.jpg

http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5927521_iGfhq-M.jpg

http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/6210135_9CFqm-M-1.jpg

The Kerry football pics are an all-time classic, I crack up everytime I see them.

This is a pretty cool site that compiles all the polls and gives you an average:

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/)

Here's an even more interesting poll site: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.

Here's an even more interesting poll site: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.

good stuff, thanks