John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances

The Professor weighs in on Redskins - NFC East - ESPN (http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-11-94/The-Professor-weighs-in-on-Redskins.html)

John Clayton, a McCann Award recipient, recently took a road trip to see the Panthers, Falcons, Titans and Bengals. But he took the time to answer an NFC East-related question in his weekly mailbag. John was asked whether he thought the Redskins were a playoff contender and how much their season hinged on Devin Thomas' development.

"To me, the Redskins remain a playoff contender," writes Clayton. "They were last year. They are this year. They do have the easiest schedule in the NFC East. With the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins will have a top-10 defense. If they can avoid injuries, they could be a top-five defense. Thomas should come on as the No. 3 receiver. He's had a decent offseason. If they can get to 21 points a game, they could have a very interesting season."

There it is. That magic 21 points per game barrier. Last year, the Redskins averaged 16.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the league. The defense gave up 18.5 points per game, which put them sixth in the league. So where do the extra five points come from? Well, you're hoping that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly arrive this season. And you need for Stephon Heyer to play relatively well at right tackle. Oh, and Clinton Portis needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

Do you guys see this offense improving by five points per game? Haynesworth and Orakpo should definitely help the defense, but it's not like that side of the ball was a problem last season.

Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.

I expect to see the offense take a big step forward this year. That's all we need to be a very legitimate team.

If that hinges on the development of Devin Thomas we could be in big trouble, but really it's all about the quarterback. If Campbell has a strong year we could be really good.

We have needed 5 PPG for the past 5 years. I do not see our chances improving just by the defensive offseason additions. Unless the defense averages a pick 6 a game, then nothing is going to change. There may be a slight improvement on offense this season and the D might improve as well, but I am not about to make predictions about the scoreboard when points have been at a premium for this team.

With that being said we are going to win some games, but by no means do I believe that we will average 21 PPG.

I won't pencil in Orakpo for many sacks or turnovers. In all fairness to him, he's still a rook. He might have a very avg. season finding his way. Haynesworth of course is a beast, but unless Rak has a tremendous rookier year, you can't count on the d-line to generate that many sacks. I don't see our D as being in the top 15 in terms of sacks. Turnovers are such a hard thing to predict but Hall & Landry have some ball hawking skills. Again, I see improvement but not enough to warrant 5 pts. a game. Maybe 3 pts. a game, which I'd be happy with!

I think that elusive 21 points has got to come from ball control; JC's improvement w/the offense, the wr's stepping up just enough to free up Moss, and the RT spot not being such a weak link. Even if this team kicks 7 fg's a game, they've got to sustain some drives & keep the D off the field. Lost too many games late last year w/a worn down defense.

If Jason Campbell can play more like he did in the first Philly game and less like he did the last 8 games of the season 21 points a game shouldn't be that difficult.

The Professor weighs in on Redskins - NFC East - ESPN (http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfceast/0-11-94/The-Professor-weighs-in-on-Redskins.html)

John Clayton, a McCann Award recipient, recently took a road trip to see the Panthers, Falcons, Titans and Bengals. But he took the time to answer an NFC East-related question in his weekly mailbag. John was asked whether he thought the Redskins were a playoff contender and how much their season hinged on Devin Thomas' development.

"To me, the Redskins remain a playoff contender," writes Clayton. "They were last year. They are this year. They do have the easiest schedule in the NFC East. With the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins will have a top-10 defense. If they can avoid injuries, they could be a top-five defense. Thomas should come on as the No. 3 receiver. He's had a decent offseason. If they can get to 21 points a game, they could have a very interesting season."

There it is. That magic 21 points per game barrier. Last year, the Redskins averaged 16.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the league. The defense gave up 18.5 points per game, which put them sixth in the league. So where do the extra five points come from? Well, you're hoping that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly arrive this season. And you need for Stephon Heyer to play relatively well at right tackle. Oh, and Clinton Portis needs to stay healthy for an entire season.

Do you guys see this offense improving by five points per game? Haynesworth and Orakpo should definitely help the defense, but it's not like that side of the ball was a problem last season.
5 points a game can be a lot. BUT...the addition of Haynesworth and Orakpo should help us with field position. You'd have to think that is worth a point or two a game alone(as long as our kicker can make field goals). The advancement of the offense in general and health along the OLine should be worth another two or three points (although health could go up in smoke of course). That leaves just a shade of need that our WRs improve. So yeah I have some hope that it can come together to get us up into the 20's.

Getting more defensive turnovers will immediately help our offense. More chances to strike.

This is the true key to scoring 5 more ppg. Last year we had 13 ints, and of the 16 teams with more picks, only 2 had fewer ppg -- all the others scored over 21 ppg.

If we get more picks, we should also score more points.

Dockery's addition is getting overlooked a bit, I think with him we got significantly better in drive blocking in short-yardage situations. I like our chances of converting TDs in the red zone by pounding a few more of 'em in there.

But 21 points per game? Probably not. I can't see any of our young WRs stepping up just yet. Maybe in their 3rd year.

Remember, Kelly is essentially a rookie this year due to inexperience thanks to injuries.

This is the true key to scoring 5 more ppg. Last year we had 13 ints, and of the 16 teams with more picks, only 2 had fewer ppg -- all the others scored over 21 ppg.

If we get more picks, we should also score more points.

So you mean half the teams with a lower PPG than us had more turnovers and half didn't? That's not much of a stat. No doubt turnovers could greatly help, but lets not disguise the real issue. Our red zone offense. When you get 7 instead of 3, 21 becomes much easier. Between the 30s our offense looked great. Inside the 30s... not so much.