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Zorn on the 4th of July 01-07-2010, 11:40 PM Doesn't the evidence suggest that the first round is overwhelmingly the most likely place to find a legit franchise QB?
Yes. You are technically correct. If only the Redskins had a starting quarterback drafted in the first round . . .
We are not forced into selecting a QB with our 1st round pick nor are we doing it at random. Therefore, "most likely" means very little. Look specifically at the QBs available in the first round this year. Do they, as individuals, bring more value to the QB position than Jason Campbell?
GusFrerotte 01-07-2010, 11:45 PM Yeah, I think we load up by taking a QB in 2010 and another in 2011 or 2012. Mallet of Arkansas, and Moore from Boise St are sophmores. Top juniors include Dalton of TCU, Keenum of Houston, and Enderle from Idaho. Todd Reesing is also a junior I believe. I like the second tiers because they are gunslingers working with less talent than these media created superstars that could be a just a good QB on a loaded team. McCoys' backup is heating things up now after a rather shaky start.
GTripp0012 01-07-2010, 11:49 PM Moreover, I think drafting a QB high in the first round is historically the best way to get such a player. There are too many other factors that go into catching lightning in a bottle and having your undrafted backup Kurt Warner flourish, or you catfish wrastling journeyman Jake Delhome suddenly morph into a fearless gunslinger in time for the playoff run. Not saying it doesn't happen, but it doesn't happen a lot more than it does.Well, the star QB in SB42 put up 17 points and lost to the pedistrian player, who was admittedly a first overall pick himself. But hardly established or even a sure thing to succeed in the NFL had he lost that game. In SB41, the game was so sloppy that another special teams or defensive touchdown could have helped Rex Grossman defeat (in my opinion) the greatest quarterback to ever lace them up. As good as Matt Hasselbeck was in the mid-2000's, Hasselbeck-types are available in the third or fourth round of any draft. Ditto Jake Delhomme.
Really, I think the common link about getting to the next level in the common game is that the quarterback must play well for most of the season, particularly in the post-season. Whether the quarterback is a franchise player, or merely posing as one in the right situation doesn't seem to matter.
I agree with you that a quarterback can't get his team to the level of a champion playing like Trent Dilfer did in 2000 anymore. Well, except for Grossman.
The Goat 01-08-2010, 12:20 AM I'm in favor of it, although this class is so
deep that you can probably get a second round value in the fourth round.
All you're getting after the top ten picks is a system guy, so I don't see why we'd spend a pick at the top of the second on anyone but McCoy. However, as the draft gets deeper, I'd take pretty much any one of those players as a No. 2 QB who doesn't prevent us from drafting a No. 1 QB in 2011. I like the flexibility of that option.
I think QB in the 2nd or later makes for sense, but why do you have a G. Williams avatar?
GTripp0012 01-08-2010, 12:23 AM I think QB in the 2nd or later makes for sense, but why do you have a G. Williams avatar?Pent up frustration.
Zorn on the 4th of July 01-08-2010, 12:23 AM Admittedly, I don't know a lot about draft strategy, but:
Do we go ahead and trade with K.C., allowing them to reunite Clausen with Weis?
I don't know anything about the Chiefs. Are they committed to Matt Cassel?
The Chiefs have a young, versatile O-lineman from Glen Burnie (former UVA guy Branden Albert). He's now starting at left tackle, but he lined up in college mostly at left guard. With the 5th pick we pick up Okung. We just bolstered the left side of the O-line by not picking up Clausen. Albert and Pick #5 (Okung) for the rights to Clausen.
How realistic is this (again, I have no feel for trades)? Do we "shop" Jason Campbell around to make it look like we're going for Clausen?
We get the O-line we need, K.C. gets a franchise QB who has demonstrated success under their new O-coordinator. Is this even in the realm of possibility?
UPDATE: I just walked away from the computer, went to the bathroom, thought about it, and realized Weis and Matt Cassel have a pretty good working relationship, too. Oh well.
Maybe this becomes a three-way trade with us getting Albert and Pick 5, KC getting Clausen (and maybe someone/something else from Team X), and Cassel going to Team X and team X getting something from Washington? Portis?
So we get O-linemen and offload Portis (maybe picks from Team X).
KC gets Clausen and something from, um, somebody.
Team X gets Cassel and Portis.
I could never be a GM. My head hurts.
Ruhskins 01-08-2010, 12:32 AM Admittedly, I don't know a lot about draft strategy, but:
Do we go ahead and trade with K.C., allowing them to reunite Clausen with Weis?
I don't know anything about the Chiefs. Are they committed to Matt Cassel?
The Chiefs have a young, versatile O-lineman from Glen Burnie (former UVA guy Branden Albert). He's now starting at left tackle, but he lined up in college mostly at left guard. With the 5th pick we pick up Okung. We just bolstered the left side of the O-line by not picking up Clausen.
How realistic is this (again, I have no feel for trades)? Do we "shop" Jason Campbell around to make it look like we're going for Clausen?
We get the O-line we need, K.C. gets a franchise QB who has demonstrated success under their new O-coordinator. Is this even in the realm of possibility?
I might be exaggerating this...but I think the Chiefs are stuck with Cassel. I think the best scenario for us it would be this...
1. St. Louis - Clausen
2. Detroit - Suh
3. TB - Berry
4. Skins - Okung
mlopez0529 01-08-2010, 12:48 AM I might be exaggerating this...but I think the Chiefs are stuck with Cassel. I think the best scenario for us it would be this...
1. St. Louis - Clausen
2. Detroit - Suh
3. TB - Berry
4. Skins - Okung
This to me sounds just about right! However after tonight's Alabama beat down of Texas and Ingram showing what type of RB he is it only makes it real difficult to pass a Heisman trophy winner and the Offensive player of a BCS Championship game. Don't get me wrong I love C.P. but his time is up. Gotta go young and gotta go strong! BTW hopefully now everyone can stop talking about Colt McCoy. Like he just said in his interview his arm feels dead. Can't take no risk. Also 2011 Draft we get Jake Locker at QB! We can't waste Draft picks this year!
Zorn on the 4th of July 01-08-2010, 01:03 AM Team X in my scenario: the Cleveland Browns, who badly need both Cassel and Portis.
Side note: Jahri Evans (Saints RG) should be our main target for free agency for the OL.
Lotus 01-08-2010, 01:10 AM Very thought-provoking post, but remember that great QB play is different than hot QB draft prospects, and improving QB play doesn't necessarily involve the draft or even the QB himself.
Gentlemen, your conference-winning quarterbacks of the last ten years (and NFL draft round):
John Elway (1)
Chris Chandler (3)
Kurt Warner (undrafted)
Steve McNair (1)
Trent Dilfer (1)
Kerry Collins (1)
Tom Brady (6)
Brad Johnson (9)
Rich Gannon (4)
Jake Delhomme (undrafted)
Donovan McNabb (1)
Ben Roethlisberger (1)
Matt Hasslebeck (6)
Peyton Manning (1)
Rex Grossman (1)
Eli Manning (1)
Thank you for that fine list. Let's look at it again:
1) 7 out of 16 were not drafted in the first round. So the statement, "Winning teams can find QB's in later rounds, or even undrafted" appears to be true.
2) But 9 out of 16 came in the first round. The most common draft position, by far, is the first round. So the statement, "Winning teams most commonly have QB's taken in the first round" also appears to be true.
Put it together and we see that winning teams can draft QB's late (or not at all), but the best-worn path to winning is with a first round QB.
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