Active HOF candidates

This list is just guys who I believe will eventually get in. The only requirement is a better than 50% chance. No first ballot stuff.

New England Patriots (5):
QB Tom Brady
OG Logan Mankins
LB Jerod Mayo
HC Bill Belichick
Chairman Robert Kraft

New York Jets (3):
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
C Nick Mangold
CB Darelle Revis
I think it's worth listing Rex Ryan here, though he's no where near 50%, he has more years ahead of him than most active players do.

Miami Dolphins (1):
OT Jake Long

Buffalo Bills (0)

Indianapolis Colts (4):
QB Peyton Manning
DE Dwight Freeney
K Adam Vinatieri
Team President Bill Polian

Tennessee Titans (1):
WR Randy Moss

Houston Texans (1):
WR Andre Johnson

Jacksonville Jaguars (1):
Maurice-Jones Drew* Because his lack of size is going to be a big deal in 13 years when he's eligible for HOF inclusion

Pittsburgh Steelers (6):
QB Ben Roethlisberger* Ward is going to get some pull, but its a bad generation to be a WR
LB James Harrison
LB Lamarr Woodley
S Troy Polamalu
HC Mike Tomlin
VP Kevin Colbert
**LeBeau is in.

Baltimore Ravens (3):
DT Haloti Ngata
LB Ray Lewis
S Ed Reed

Cincinnati Bengals (1):
WR Terrell Owens

Cleveland Browns (1):
OT Joe Thomas

San Diego Chargers (2):
QB Philip Rivers
TE Antonio Gates

Denver Broncos (2):
CB Champ Bailey
S Brian Dawkins

Kansas City Chiefs (2):
LG Brian Waters
S Eric Berry

Oakland Raiders (2):
*Davis is already in
CB Nnamdi Asomugha
DL Richard Seymour

New York Giants (2):
QB Eli Manning
RG Chris Snee
*It's kinda funny that Osi and Tuck are almost sure to be screwed over by each other when it comes to the Hall. Umenyiora is a way better rusher than anyone seems to remember him as. In his peak, he was as good of a player as Strahan. Tuck is probably the most complete end in that franchises' history. This is a hall of fame duo, and neither is getting there, in part because of the other.
**When Eli's hall debate rolls around, it's going to center around him being a Manning...though his era adjusted numbers are going to be way closer to Peyton than they were to Archie. I do think his career stats will look better than Roethlisbergers, in hindsight. If he get a second title at some point, he's in. Given the next six years, I think he has good odds.

Philadelphia Eagles (1):
CB Asante Samuel

Dallas Cowboys (3):
TE Jason Witten
C Andre Gurode
LB Demarcus Ware
*I think Tony Romo is going to miss for similar reasons to why I think Eli will make it. Romo's had the better career to date, and I don't even see that as debatable. But this is a bad time to be caught as the Cowboys' quarterback. Even if Romo gets a super bowl ring, he'll fall short of other HOF Cowboys QBs. His upside is being remembered as better than Don Meredith, but that's not the hall of fame.
**Witten was tough. I think if people have to build momentum to induct either Witten or Dallas Clark, I think Witten has the better chance of being remembered as a lunch-pail type traditional TE in an era of big-passing. Clark I think is just going to represent what is disliked about this era by the traditional fan: Peyton Manning shredding defenses on a weekly basis.

Washington Redskins (1):
S LaRon Landry
*I am just trying to project a skill set that will be valuable in the next decade. I don't know if anything Landry's done to date suggests he's hall of fame bound, but regardless of how long he lasts in Washington, dual threat safeties are going to be the centerpiece of defenses in the future. We have one.
**London Fletcher getting no hall of fame push will make me cry. But he has no chance.

New Orleans Saints (3):
QB Drew Brees
LG Carl Nicks
HC Sean Payton
*Payton is going to get credit for revolutionizing the passing game. Mike McCarthy deserves just as much credit for doing so (and so, really, does Josh McDaniels), but he's a crappy interview compared to Payton. And Grilliams is going to be an interesting case. DCs never get in unless they are viewed as revolutionaries. I believe that Gregg Williams is the best defensive mind of the last decade. But revolutionary? He's damn good at his job but innovative might be a better term.

Atlanta Falcons (3):
WR Roddy White
TE Tony Gonzalez
DE John Abraham
*Matt Ryan just doesn't strike me as likely to get a whole lot better based on his periphrial statistics. Roddy White will keep going to NFC pro bowls based on superior production, and Ryan will go to a number of pro bowls himself, but I don't know if Atlanta is good enough to represent the NFC in the SB more than once over the next decade, and that will hurt Matt Ryan's legacy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1):
CB Ronde Barber* The historical prototype for cover two cornerback.

Carolina Panthers (1):
WR Steve Smith
*I'm convinced he's not toasted as a wideout and will have some good years elsewhere. He's what DeSean Jackson can someday hope to be. Could run every route. But god, is the burden of production high for a HOF wide receiver. He's not in based on just his existing production.

Green Bay Packers (4):
QB Aaron Rodgers* Looks like a hall of fame player now, but unlike Brees there was no history of success beyond his 5 playoff games when he finally did win the super bowl. Not much above 50%, and if you gave me one pick for the HoF today: Rodgers or Eli, I'd take Eli.
WR Greg Jennings
NT B.J. Raji
CB Charles Woodson

Chicago Bears (3):
KR Devin Hester
DE Julius Peppers
LB Brian Urlacher

Minnesota Vikings (4):
RB Adrian Peterson
LG Steve Hutchinson
DT Kevin Williams
DE Jared Allen
*If the Saints had won the SB this year, but fallen to the Vikings last year, Antoine Winfield is probably a yes while Charles Woodson looks in from the outside. They're that close.

Detroit Lions (2):
WR Calvin Johnson
DT Ndamukong Suh

Seattle Seahawks (1):
OT Russell Okung* It's highly speculative, but he plays against weak competition and is dominant-unbeatable when healthy. Chances of staying healthy for a HoF career: not as likely as Trent Williams staying healthy and becoming a pro bowl player.

San Francisco 49ers (1):
LB Patrick Willis
*I think Willis is a bit overrated, getting a lot of the credit Justin Smith deserves. I think Brian Westbrook is a clear "no" at this point, just not an easy one.

Arizona Cardinals (1):
WR Larry Fitzgerald

St. Louis Rams (0):
But Chris Long has a daddy in the HoF, so at least we have a standard for him to go on.

If my numbers are high for this exercise, it's probably because I speculated "yes" on too many receivers. Are there 8 active HoF level receivers? Yes, but, that's an entire pro bowl roster every year. Guys who aren't perennial pro bowlers at the WR position aren't making it. Which sucks for Greg Jennings et al, but it is what it is. Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald are going to eat three of the four NFC pro bowl spots every year from here on out. Jennings probably isn't going to be a perennial pro bowler because of that.

List is too long dude

List is too long dude

nodobody is going to read the other posts, are they? all right, I learn a little more every day. from now on I include all info in the first post.

With guys like Cris Carter, Tim Brown, and Ricky Watters among others still not in-I don't see how guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Tomlinson are locks.

And it's too early, in my opinion, to say someone like Bradford has at least a 50% chance

Maybe a more interesting discussion would be what active players do we think are first ballot hall of famers?

With guys like Cris Carter, Tim Brown, and Ricky Watters among others still not in-I don't see how guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Tomlinson are locks.

And it's too early, in my opinion, to say someone like Bradford has at least a 50% chance

Maybe a more interesting discussion would be what active players do we think are first ballot hall of famers?

I say they are locks because of the eventuality of the way the HOF works. Over time they are all guaranteed to get in. Carter isn't getting in because of the WR log jam combined with the fact that some people think it is good to wait a year, combined with the fact that older, not as talented or productive players are getting in over him because people remember the past more fondly, the have "paid their time," and when someone is close to having their HOF eligibility taken away, the voters are more likely to vote them in. There will be a time when the future 2nd all time catch leader will take a back seat in the HOF voting to a lesser player that is playing today.

I personally like my topic, but I guess nobody else does or sees what I see in my rule of 65.

You can lock this thread up now, I'll start a new one a little more simplistic...future first ballots.

BTW. I know it is way too early for bradford, but that's what I felt the fun of this thread is, predicting the future. I believe he will become good enough to make it one day.