ESPN Makes Up New QB Stat

ErenCur Eren Cur
I was interested in espn's TQBR until I heard Trent Dilfer helped developed it.... #notago
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Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"

Trent Dilfer actually mentioned on NFL Live not to say that he had a hand in it -- verbatim, "If people know I was involved, they wouldn't respect it"

Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.

Yeah, they'll definitely need to look at game tape so overall it's a more exhaustive process -- I couldn't care less though, you can get a sense of how a player is playing in the game from the stats but if you really want to analyze how well a guy played (i.e. get his TQBR), then a 1-2 day delay is totally understandable.

Interesting. My only concern with the rating is its is verifiability or reliability (not sure which element of the scientific method). IE if another statistician was reviewing the exact same tape could they produce the exact same rating, or at least a rating within a small margin of error. Seems like two or three people could study the same game and come up with two or three different ratings using the same system.

Either way the ratings main problem is how long it takes to compile. I can always see a players QB rating seconds after a play. This new system seems like it'll take a day or two to see how someone did. Of course in the end it is nice to take scrambling, fumbles, and throw aways into account.My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.

My only problem with the splitting up credit thing has to do with it's in-game purpose. If you're going to drop a players single game TQBR in the middle of a football broadcast, the context for that is going to be nearly impossible to have correct during the broadcast.

The denominator for this stat (EPA) is strong. But an EPA rate stat would be about 1,000 times more simple and more predictive than TQBR. And more than that, it was easily available four years ago on the internet. So if ESPN can't use TQBR as a replacement for passer rating during it's broadcasts, then it has no practical value.

To have value, TQBR must flat replace passer rating during all broadcasts to the point where we, as fans, will look at networks like Fox and CBS and be embarrassed to be fed passer rating during a live broadcast.

It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.

It will replace passer rating in the broadcasts.On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?

The hidden thing that TQBR inadvertently does is that its also going to give an EPA component for the other players involved in the play on offense (and hopefully someday, defense). Whereas we already have a ton of useful ways to measure quarterback play (and have for nearly a decade), I really think that the film analysis component of TQBR can provide accurate conclusions about the performance of other players on offense from a statistical perspective.

On a single game basis as well? Do you know if the single game baseline is going to differ in any way from the baseline for a season?

It's Saturday, your question requires my weekday brain

I'm not watching any of the games right now (still at work), but the gamecasts/box scores on ESPN are not using the new QB stat. Is this regular season only?

I believe this stat is an overall barometer for the value that the QB has for each and every play to his team. It does seem that it (TQBR) lowers the value for the "moving the chains" type passes, the short 5 yard slants called on an audible, where one could be broken for a huge gain. One thing that this new system would have a hard time doing is adjusting stats based on game situations during the current game. How can this system adjust the ratings to involve audibles or in game decisions made by a quarterback that positively affect other players performances. It seems that this rating would give a majority of the "responsibility points" to the guy on the other end of the pass who takes a short one for a big gain. Is there a "watered down" version that they will use during in game broadcasts so that they can give an overall description on the value of the quarterbacks play for that given game? I dont see a very accurate way that the TQBR can be accurately projected during in game broadcasts, as the rating depends heavily on situational statistics, and you possibly wouldnt know if a situation, or the stats during a given situation, were inflated at any point during a game, until late in the game, or afterwards.

Seems like a hard rating to gauge in "real time". My thought is there should be a watered down, less situational adjusted version to use for broadcasts, and then release the "TQBR" for each quarterback that played the previous day on Sportscenter weekly after every football week. Kinda like how everyone waits for each specific sites "Power Rankings", Sportscenter could incorporate this into something that is released on Tuesday that everyone is looking forward to. "SC is releasing the TQBRs today, lets see how so and so REALLY fared this week......" type thing.