Ukraine mega thread

5 March Assessment

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5

5 March Assessment

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5

Russia had a bad day in the air. Wow…they got crushed

Russia had a bad day in the air. Wow…they got crushed

Yep - did you see the shootdown of that helicopter by the manpad (Stinger type missile)? Clearest footage I've ever seen of actual combat action.

Ukraine has been defensive trying to hold territory ..as it should…but at this point they need to try a counteroffensive

They don’t have the weaponry and they don’t have the logistical capability to supply a sustained offensive. When they’re fighting from a defensive position tight to their own cities it’s easier to resupply. They’re going to have to remain there.

Russia’s victory is inevitable, there’s just a raw cold military math at play. They just keep coming and keep coming. Even if losses are 2 parts Russian and 1 part Ukraine in every engagement, Russia still inevitably wins due to sheer numbers.

But the question is can Ukraine weaken them enough in that process to make holding the territory impossible for Russia, at which time you mount the insurrection. In that sense, Russia will assuredly fail. But not before Ukraine is ostensibly destroyed in the process.

I really wish the military math were in favor of the US getting more involved but it isn’t. In which scenario do more people die: 1) US steps in to defend Ukraine and war breaks out between US and Russia or 2) US stands by and watches Russia slowly salt away Ukraine’s defenses.

Far fewer die in scenario 2 and so we must stay away, as much as it feels like the wrong thing to do.

They don’t have the weaponry and they don’t have the logistical capability to supply a sustained offensive. When they’re fighting from a defensive position tight to their own cities it’s easier to resupply. They’re going to have to remain there.

Russia’s victory is inevitable, there’s just a raw cold military math at play. They just keep coming and keep coming. Even if losses are 2 parts Russian and 1 part Ukraine in every engagement, Russia still inevitably wins due to sheer numbers.

But the question is can Ukraine weaken them enough in that process to make holding the territory impossible for Russia, at which time you mount the insurrection. In that sense, Russia will assuredly fail. But not before Ukraine is ostensibly destroyed in the process.

I really wish the military math were in favor of the US getting more involved but it isn’t. In which scenario do more people die: 1) US steps in to defend Ukraine and war breaks out between US and Russia or 2) US stands by and watches Russia slowly salt away Ukraine’s defenses.

Far fewer die in scenario 2 and so we must stay away, as much as it feels like the wrong thing to do.
The US has to back down for now.Once NATO gets involved then yes but the fear is if we go in China backs Russia and goes after Taiwan then we have wars on both sides and it's WWIII . The other fear is Putin is a mad man who doesn't give a flying fuck about others or his own people he will use his nuclear option the question is when?

6 March assessment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6

The US has to back down for now.Once NATO gets involved then yes but the fear is if we go in China backs Russia and goes after Taiwan then we have wars on both sides and it's WWIII . The other fear is Putin is a mad man who doesn't give a flying fuck about others or his own people he will use his nuclear option the question is when?

I think we just said the same thing.

7 March Assessment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7

7 March Assessment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7

So a major push to take Kyiv in the next few days.

Some seige and starving of towns.

Checkneyan assholes shelling civilians.

Mariupol somehow standing strong still.

chico, blame Biden again...............


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