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North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Old 03-07-2013, 09:02 AM   #31
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

Had to revive this again. First any time a Trample thread can be revived, that's a good thing, and second:

One day they are going to say/do something, and it's not going to end well for them:

Furious over sanctions, NKorea vows to nuke US - Yahoo! News

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"Now our enemies are trying to make additional sanctions against us, but we can never accept this," said Ri Kum Il, a Pyongyang citizen at the rally. "We will make a preemptive nuclear attack against our enemies wherever they are and turn their strongholds into a sea of flames."
ok Ri, but if you start a fire, you probably will get burned.
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Old 03-07-2013, 09:23 AM   #32
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

Yes they certainly have been getting riled up lately.
Sanctions and our war games have really annoyed them.
Seems like they are more mad at us then actually South Korea.
I think they will have to actually invade or do a lot of shooting towards the south for us to really do anything.
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Old 03-07-2013, 10:37 AM   #33
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

I guess the question is, could they manage to lob a nuke at Japan. I doubt they send one to SK, to close, and if they fired one off at us, they have to know it would be an act in futility, but if they lobbed it at Japan, they(being crazy) may think it strengthens their negotiation position.
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Old 03-07-2013, 10:53 AM   #34
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule View Post
I guess the question is, could they manage to lob a nuke at Japan. I doubt they send one to SK, to close, and if they fired one off at us, they have to know it would be an act in futility, but if they lobbed it at Japan, they(being crazy) may think it strengthens their negotiation position.
If they nuke Japan they will be come the next Iraq.
Except this time we'll get a lot more help.

If they nuked us it would go even worse for them as we would most likely occupy them for the next 80 years while reuniting with the south.

I dont think they are so dumb to think that an action like that will lift their sanctions.
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Old 03-07-2013, 11:14 AM   #35
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

nobody rattles the saber these days like DPRK. China would never let them fire a nuclear missle at us...all talk. My big problem with them is trading nuclear arms with terrorists groups.
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Old 03-07-2013, 11:42 AM   #36
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

I think that if they feel isolated enough, and China apparently helped draft this newest sanction, they will reach out more to Iran, and Japan becomes a very effective "don't tread on me message". I'm not saying it will happen, but only that they could see a path where Iran feeds them nuclear material, and trade, and bolstered by that relationship they think they can get away with a nuke on Japan. It would not be the first time a closed regime misunderstood the way US policy gets made.
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Old 03-07-2013, 06:15 PM   #37
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule View Post
"Now our enemies are trying to make additional sanctions against us, but we can never accept this," said Ri Kum Il, a Pyongyang citizen at the rally. "We will make a preemptive nuclear attack against our enemies wherever they are and turn their strongholds into a sea of flames."
Someone should have asked him: "What about decades of Juche? Was that all a lie to the people of NK?"

In the thread title I'd vote: Other. It's a tragedy.

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Old 03-08-2013, 10:21 AM   #38
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

Young inexperienced leader. Established military bureaucracy. Closed political system in which dissent is punished and information closely controlled. Economic dependency. Nine million active and active reserve army (1M active; 8M, active reserve).

Bad things my friends. Bad things.
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Old 03-08-2013, 10:43 AM   #39
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

Lots of 'em no doubt.
How professional they are is the question.

■The Reserve Military Training Unit consist of approximately 1.7 million persons (men 17-45 and unmarried women 17-30) who are not either in active duty or important rear area personnel. They are mobilized under supervision of provincial military units, for a total of forty days' training out of the year.
■The Worker-Peasant Militia is a combination of older men aged 45-60, along with men ages 17-45 and unmarried women ages 17-30 who are not included in Reserve Military Training Unit. They train for a total of thirty days out of the year. Their current numbers stand at 4.1 million.
■The Young Red Guards consist of 1.2 million male and female Higher Middle (High) School students aged 14-16. They are subject to a mandatory four-hour drill session every Saturday and a total of 160 hours of on-campus drills annually. A total of 450 hours of off-campus training is also mandatory.


Reserve Military Training Unit form the core of the reserves and are under the command of the Ministry of Defense in peace AND in wartime. Party Civil Defense Departments keep track of the Worker-Peasant Militia and the Young Red Guards in peace time, but the Ministry of Defense in contingencies.


Korean People's Army
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:28 PM   #40
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Originally Posted by Chico23231 View Post
My big problem with them is trading nuclear arms with terrorists groups.
It shouldn't be a fear. Nuclear material can be traced to its origin, so anything nuclear passed on to a terrorist would be traced back to NK in the event something were to happen. At that point, NK (or any other country) would be treated exactly the same as if they had launched the weapon themselves.

Take for instance, Pakistan. They are known supporters of terrorists, and hold nuclear weapons. Not a single solitary nuclear device or materials has ever been passed on. They know their existence would end if it did.
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:37 PM   #41
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

North Korea says 'prepare for war' following fresh UN sanctions - Telegraph

I love North Korean propaganda videos. Hilarious.


NK is thumping its chest wanting attention like a spoiled brat. It most likely wants more "funding" from us to feed their starving people, even though they'd rather use that money for weaponry. I would dare those assholes to do something. China is fed up with them, as is the rest of the world. WE SEE YOU, NOW SIT THE **** DOWN AND SHUT UP. THANKS!
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Old 03-08-2013, 03:46 PM   #42
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Originally Posted by NC_Skins View Post
It shouldn't be a fear. Nuclear material can be traced to its origin, so anything nuclear passed on to a terrorist would be traced back to NK in the event something were to happen. At that point, NK (or any other country) would be treated exactly the same as if they had launched the weapon themselves.

Take for instance, Pakistan. They are known supporters of terrorists, and hold nuclear weapons. Not a single solitary nuclear device or materials has ever been passed on. They know their existence would end if it did.
Didnt know it could be traced, thats very interesting. I just dont think they would be the ones to fire the weapon, more likely to pass it off to another to use agaisnt us.

I think China would go absolutely ape-shit, they wouldnt want a US backed country up against their border. NK would cease to exist after they launch a nuclear missle.

It would be WW3, Europe, US, SK, Aust, Japan, would probably engage fairly quickly. China's hands would be tied, no way could they defend a pre emptive launch of a nuclear weapon.
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Old 03-08-2013, 04:26 PM   #43
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Originally Posted by Chico23231 View Post
Didnt know it could be traced, thats very interesting. I just dont think they would be the ones to fire the weapon, more likely to pass it off to another to use agaisnt us.

I think China would go absolutely ape-shit, they wouldnt want a US backed country up against their border. NK would cease to exist after they launch a nuclear missle.

It would be WW3, Europe, US, SK, Aust, Japan, would probably engage fairly quickly. China's hands would be tied, no way could they defend a pre emptive launch of a nuclear weapon.
I don't think it's as simple as them having some barometer showing "This is X's enriched uranium", but I positive they would be able to break down the composition and tell which reactor (and make) it came from, thereby narrowing down the possibilities.

Nuclear bomb debris holds clues to who planted it - science-in-society - 08 November 2010 - New Scientist


As far as NK goes, I wouldn't put it past China to invade NK before we could just so that scenario you mention didn't happen.
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Old 03-08-2013, 06:52 PM   #44
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NC_Skins View Post
It shouldn't be a fear. Nuclear material can be traced to its origin, so anything nuclear passed on to a terrorist would be traced back to NK in the event something were to happen. At that point, NK (or any other country) would be treated exactly the same as if they had launched the weapon themselves.

Take for instance, Pakistan. They are known supporters of terrorists, and hold nuclear weapons. Not a single solitary nuclear device or materials has ever been passed on. They know their existence would end if it did.
I agree with you on this. Generically, sometimes it seems like people think nuclear weapon grade material is something that you just get and then bing bang boom you have a bomb. It's not really that simple. Further, even if a terrorist group were to get hold of something usable, getting it anywhere that it would be effective is nearly impossible as well.

All that said, comparing Pakistan's situation with NK, is not a good comparison. Although Pakistan does give aid and comfort to terrorists at some level, they are not a pariah in the international community, and their nuclear level is directly in response to India's equivalent threat. Pakistan needs to be seen as a good nuclear player, for fear of international backlash that would empower India. NK, on the other hand, is a dictatorial regime, and absolutely despises the West, and international rules.

One last difference is that from a perspective of haves and have nots, Pakistan is in the company of the haves on nuclear weapons which entitles them to more leeway, NK is a have not, and there is a belligerence towards all haves that comes from that.
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Old 03-08-2013, 07:05 PM   #45
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Re: North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

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Sounds more like you would have to make an educated guess at best. We could let Collen Powell present the evidence to the UN. I hear he is pretty good at that. You say don't fear it getting into the wrong hands but that's our goverments biggest fear and why we care who has the capability.
To go with NC_Skins on this, the government has a vested interest in keeping people afraid of terrorists. It allows them to act in ways that a non-fearful population would never allow. Between that fact, the media playing up singular fear inducing events, and Hollywood creating impossible situations to make an exciting plotline, I doubt the US population at large has any clue of what is and isn't possible. A terrorist cell doesn't get to test out their stuff, they aren't doing underground testing. They need something quick and dirty, and hope that no intelligence agency gets a whiff of it.


A side note: Do you know why the USSR and USA built enough weapons to destroy the world multiple of multiple times over? (anecdotal answer, not something stated as fact, but someone I know who would have reason to know at the time implied it - (this is my best a friend of a friend who knows a friend who worked in a lab answer):

The simple answer is because we didn't know with confidence that the actual weapons would work. We knew that all the moving parts worked per se, but the actual weapons, not as confident. The reason reduction treaties started being agreed to is that our confidence in the capability was maturing.
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