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Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

Debating with the enemy


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Old 02-03-2011, 06:07 PM   #16
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this is the design for the hungry protester.
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Old 02-04-2011, 01:29 AM   #17
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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Originally Posted by mlmpetert View Post
Yeah, distress in the middle east doesnt seem like anything new to me, sadly. Hopefully they dont burn down the pymirds or the sphinx.

The one thing im kind of interested in is the whole Muslim Brotherhood thing. People on the right are pointing out all the extreme muslim type terrorist stuff that this group is either partly responsible for, or members of this group have done, or the connections with this group and flat terriorst groups. Then people on the left are saying theres nothing to worry about this group and are almost making the MB sound like a good proposition for control of Egypt and the middle east. Just sounds weird to me.
Yeah, burning down well-guarded stone buildings far far away in the ****ing desert. Really practical. Or are you just ignorant of the logistics?
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:52 AM   #18
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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I'm surprised this thread is so dead with everything thats going on in the ME.
I would say that I have been watching this more closely than a lot of politics in recent years, including listening to govt reports through C-SPAN radio, and the live feeds that have been available. But nothing that I start typing here really adds anything to the discussion. It amazes me that these protests in Egypt have gone on without resolution and without sparking anarchy. It's kind of a suspension of disbelief moment, and until we see the other shoe drop (whether it is Mubarak's resignation, or an immense crackdown), I don't know how to put in words the feelings of these moments. You almost expect to see some sort of crowd rage moment that tops the skirmishes on Tues/Wed, or Mubarak flying out on a US C-130 transport into exile.

We can hope that the end results are to the betterment of Egyptian people, but I think no matter what happens, the Mideast will become a much more unstable place in the short term.

Anyone else wonder what kind of moment could send this thing catapulting out of control, to the point where Israel might feel threatened enough to do some rash/stupid reaction?
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Old 02-04-2011, 11:43 AM   #19
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

Sounds like we got caught a little off-guard.

US intelligence on Arab unrest draws criticism - Yahoo! News
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Old 02-04-2011, 03:57 PM   #20
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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Originally Posted by mlmpetert View Post
Yeah, distress in the middle east doesnt seem like anything new to me, sadly. Hopefully they dont burn down the pymirds or the sphinx.

The one thing im kind of interested in is the whole Muslim Brotherhood thing. People on the right are pointing out all the extreme muslim type terrorist stuff that this group is either partly responsible for, or members of this group have done, or the connections with this group and flat terriorst groups. Then people on the left are saying theres nothing to worry about this group and are almost making the MB sound like a good proposition for control of Egypt and the middle east. Just sounds weird to me.
Rule by the Muslim Brotherhood would not be a good thing. That said, although the MB follows a radical ideology, they are not a violent group now (unlike in the '80's). That is, the MB should not be confused with al Qaeda. If you think radically, you join the MB; if you want to kill folks, you join al Qaeda. So rule by the MB, while it would not be a good thing, is not the same as installing a terrorist regime.

With all of that said, it is extremely unlikely that the MB could seize power. While they are organized and get a lot of press, they are not a particularly large group numerically compared to the total population of Egypt. So if Egypt turned democratic, it is very unlikely that the MB would be a ruling party, although they may capture a seat or two in the legislature.

El Baradei represents a rational and moderate Egyptian political voice. When all is said and done, I hope that he assumes power within a genuine Egyptian democracy. This would be good for us. If you follow terrorists, you know that they almost always come from places with autocratic regimes. Places like Turkey, which are both Muslim and democratic, produce far fewer terrorists.

If I could, I would storm the palace and put Mubarak out on the streets TODAY. I would install a caretaking UN oversight committee to keep the government and economy viable. Then I would schedule democratic elections for as soon as possible and presume that El Baradei would win the elections.
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Old 02-04-2011, 05:29 PM   #21
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

Problem is we are in a messed up situation. Western powers have always pushed pro-western regimes in the ME. These regimes had to be authoritarian to ally with the West the way they did. I am a strong believer that all people have the right to live democratically and their society will push towards that direction against the status quo.

Unfortunately the status quo was pro-Western, so most of the stronger democratic movements in the ME have been anti-Western in nature.

We are screwed whatever way we move on this. It is about minimizing the level of that.
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Old 02-04-2011, 06:08 PM   #22
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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Is that not one of the biggest things the ME hates about out siders today. That would just give fuel to the radicals that say the left just wants to take them over.
I understand your argument. My idea (which was not the most important thing I said) includes the idea that such a presence would be clearly presented as very short-term only and that such a presence would take it as a top priority to provide oversight for genuine elections. That is, such an idea would take pains to make it clear to Egyptians, both in word and action, that it has no intention to do anything but mind the store for a minute. Since it would be a UN committee, it could even be staffed by representatives from Middle Eastern countries, which should allay some fears.
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Old 02-05-2011, 09:12 PM   #23
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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Yeah, burning down well-guarded stone buildings far far away in the ****ing desert. Really practical. Or are you just ignorant of the logistics?
The pyramids and the Sphinx are located in Giza, essentially a suburb if cairo with a population of 5 million. Not exactly the middle of nowhere.

Apparently opposition parties meet with VP Omar Sulieman to discuss constitutional change. The Muslim Brotherhood was not included in the meetings.
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Old 02-06-2011, 10:38 AM   #24
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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The pyramids and the Sphinx are located in Giza, essentially a suburb if cairo with a population of 5 million. Not exactly the middle of nowhere.

Apparently opposition parties meet with VP Omar Sulieman to discuss constitutional change. The Muslim Brotherhood was not included in the meetings.
What a terrible mistake.
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Old 02-06-2011, 01:54 PM   #25
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

It looks like Sulieman did meet with the MB.

In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood reverses course, agrees to talks on transition

Initially it sounds they didn't want to meet with him, but I think once they saw concessions are being made they jumped at the opportunity. Its a little weird hearing they want a democracy, but have it based on religious law. Didn't the puritans try that?
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Old 02-06-2011, 03:33 PM   #26
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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What a terrible mistake.
Why? Just curious, i dont really know what to think either way
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Old 02-06-2011, 08:11 PM   #27
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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Originally Posted by mlmpetert View Post
Why? Just curious, i dont really know what to think either way
They are considered to be one of the largest opposition organizations to the current government. So if there was a transition to occur they would represent the feelings of a large population.
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Old 02-07-2011, 12:24 PM   #28
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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They are considered to be one of the largest opposition organizations to the current government. So if there was a transition to occur they would represent the feelings of a large population.
That and the fact that excluding groups rarely works...see the exclusion of Ba'ath party in Iraq and Taliban in Afghanistan. You want them to have a voice even if you dont agree with them...unlike al qada they can at least play political ball.
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Old 02-07-2011, 03:52 PM   #29
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

first, those types of extremist parties developed because they were not included in the process. They, and segments of the population, get alienated thus creating some of the radical opposition we see in the ME this day.
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Old 02-07-2011, 04:20 PM   #30
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re: Updated Title: World Revolution 2011

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So you think the Taliban should have a say in Afghanistan government? What your doing then is recognizing them because of their violence. Why not just let the prisoners run the jail.
Clearly the violent sections should be held out to whatever extent possible, however, by including all groups in discussions you offer the possibility of co-opting the extreme parties base of support. The majority of people will not look for a revolutionary party when they feel their basic concerns and beliefs are being respected.

There will be a section that will back out on their own, but they should be made to make that decision, thus alienating some of their less extreme supporters who want to try and work things out through a process.
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