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That Guy · 07-25-2006, 04:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRPLG

As an aside. I have done analysis of every league I have ever been in(in football) and have realized that picking the sandwhich is almost a death kill...

Translation: sandwhich pick sucks.

when i hear sandwich I think the #5 pick, but you mean the #10 right? does the #1 tend to win? this year every #1 seems to get LJ, holt/r moss (user choice) and D Davis to start, and usually ends up with shockey in the 5th as well... that's for 10 man leagues though.

I do get first waiver wire and antonio byrant is undrafted. I can drop Wash D and pick him up until i have to make a choice in week 1. i think he's a lock for 800-1k yards even with the crap 49ers. I'm worried about TD production though.

FRPLG · 07-25-2006, 08:23 AM

Yeah I mean the last pick in the first round.

In fact if you take a total point production from a previous year the 10(or12 or 14 or whichever depending on league size) always has the lowest total.

Just from looking through and doing some subjective analysis I think it has to do with the propensity for the 10 pick to reach. Usually the top RBs are gone by 7 or 8 and then a top WR goes and the top QB. At 10 you have at best a top WR or a second tier RB and inevitably everyone always grabs the RB and immediately puts themselves in a hole. This year and to some degree last year are a little different in that there are a few more good RBs to be had around 10 so maybe the trend is swaying.

FRPLG · 07-25-2006, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by That Guy

when i hear sandwich I think the #5 pick, but you mean the #10 right? does the #1 tend to win? this year every #1 seems to get LJ, holt/r moss (user choice) and D Davis to start, and usually ends up with shockey in the 5th as well... that's for 10 man leagues though.

I do get first waiver wire and antonio byrant is undrafted. I can drop Wash D and pick him up until i have to make a choice in week 1. i think he's a lock for 800-1k yards even with the crap 49ers. I'm worried about TD production though.

Will you lose Wass's D if you drop them? Even without knowing your D scoring I would think the dropoff from Wash to whoever else is there might be precipitous. Maybe not though.

724Skinsfan · 07-25-2006, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Will you lose Wass's D if you drop them? Even without knowing your D scoring I would think the dropoff from Wash to whoever else is there might be precipitous. Maybe not though.

Due to lack of turnover's, Washington's D has never yielded very good fantasy production. They are usually middle of the pack (only as far as fantasy goes). If they can produce more turnover's then they could be a top fantasy defense but until then...

FRPLG · 07-25-2006, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 724Skinsfan

Due to lack of turnover's, Washington's D has never yielded very good fantasy production. They are usually middle of the pack (only as far as fantasy goes). If they can produce more turnover's then they could be a top fantasy defense but until then...

Yeah but TOs are pretty variable. I like to take good defenses and hope they simply have a good TO year.

724Skinsfan · 07-25-2006, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Yeah but TOs are pretty variable. I like to take good defenses and hope they simply have a good TO year.

True. This is why I change Defenses quite frequently based on matchups. Rookie/inexperienced QB's = higher probability for INT for any team.

scowan · 07-25-2006, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Yeah I mean the last pick in the first round.

In fact if you take a total point production from a previous year the 10(or12 or 14 or whichever depending on league size) always has the lowest total.

Just from looking through and doing some subjective analysis I think it has to do with the propensity for the 10 pick to reach. Usually the top RBs are gone by 7 or 8 and then a top WR goes and the top QB. At 10 you have at best a top WR or a second tier RB and inevitably everyone always grabs the RB and immediately puts themselves in a hole. This year and to some degree last year are a little different in that there are a few more good RBs to be had around 10 so maybe the trend is swaying.

This is an interesting observation and study FRPLG. I have that sandwich pick this year, because I won our league and we are doing our draft based on last year's finish. However, we are doing a 2 player "non-last year 1st round" Keeper league. (It means you can keep two players from last year who were not picked in the first round). I am keeping Portis and A. Boldin. So I feel like I already have a top 5 RB, but you are right in that I will be looking at "best available" when my picks come. Unfortunately, other non-1st rounders who are being kept are guys like L.J.(total stinker) Steven Jackson, Ronnie Brown, C. Williams. By the time my number 10 pick comes, I will be looking at RBs 10-15, so I may have to go Manning or C. Johnson or somthing with that pick.

FRPLG · 07-25-2006, 11:53 AM

One thing is for sure. Every draft is totally different. Outside the first round it is hard to predict how a draft will unfold. Knowing your fellow drafters is a big advantage since the name of the game is basically information.

That Guy · 07-25-2006, 12:55 PM

jacksonville D, cards, etc are untaken. the difference between whatever Ds i'm picking from wont be a big deal. i used the last pick of the draft on wash D, meaning no one else wanted them.

last year the bengals (not a good D) and chicago D took me a long way and both were uncontested week 2 pickups (in different leagues).

07-25-2006, 08:23 AM	#17
FRPLG Franchise Player Join Date: May 2004 Age: 34 Posts: 9,232	Re: Rate this draft: Yeah I mean the last pick in the first round. In fact if you take a total point production from a previous year the 10(or12 or 14 or whichever depending on league size) always has the lowest total. Just from looking through and doing some subjective analysis I think it has to do with the propensity for the 10 pick to reach. Usually the top RBs are gone by 7 or 8 and then a top WR goes and the top QB. At 10 you have at best a top WR or a second tier RB and inevitably everyone always grabs the RB and immediately puts themselves in a hole. This year and to some degree last year are a little different in that there are a few more good RBs to be had around 10 so maybe the trend is swaying.

07-25-2006, 11:53 AM	#23
FRPLG Franchise Player Join Date: May 2004 Age: 34 Posts: 9,232	Re: Rate this draft: One thing is for sure. Every draft is totally different. Outside the first round it is hard to predict how a draft will unfold. Knowing your fellow drafters is a big advantage since the name of the game is basically information.

07-25-2006, 12:55 PM	#24
That Guy Living Legend Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Springfield, VA Age: 30 Posts: 15,620	Re: Rate this draft: jacksonville D, cards, etc are untaken. the difference between whatever Ds i'm picking from wont be a big deal. i used the last pick of the draft on wash D, meaning no one else wanted them. last year the bengals (not a good D) and chicago D took me a long way and both were uncontested week 2 pickups (in different leagues). __________________ Who says shameless self promotion is stupid? oh yeah, that was me... Click For Tunes!

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