|09-05-2007, 10:11 AM||#1|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Prediction League 07 Week 1 Picks
Just FYI The DON'S/doncanabis it's me D'BOIZ That's another alias I use in the Board I'm part of GL
Well, I'm back! After a long 7 months' waiting you can just smell it in the air: preseason is over—REAL FOOTBALL is coming! I did well last year (69% straight up, 62% against the spread) and finished first in the personal league against some other members and analysts—beat the crap out of the few well-known analysts we compared around the web—but I know I can do better; I have to be above 70% in the spread if I want to be taken seriously.
So I, like the players, did my offseason training, went to my personal training camp that consisted in watching almost every preseason game out there—especially the third and most important one (thank you NFL Network and Tivo)—and watched all the "inside training camp" reports that were out there.
I really hope it helps, because I don't want to acknowledge I just wasted the whole summer in a wild goose chase.
Okay, so here we go...just so you know, there are no two weeks an analyst hates more than the first week of the season and the last. Why? Because in the first, you (along with the best) really don't know what's going to happen—you base your analysis on how the team finished, what their moves were, where there were any major changes, how they play away games, how they play at home, in/outside, etc...but the reality is that, until you see them play, you just don't know.
Is Randy Moss going to be the Marvin Harrison to Peyton or the T.O. to Donovan? We just don't know. Are we going to see another New Orleans effect this year? Maybe not as good, but you bet who it's going to be. Who knows? We have an idea, but right now, if you put a gun to my head, I would go with Tampa Bay as the surprise this year. Their D is not old anymore, and I like the combination of Gruden in the hot seat with Garcia. We haven't heard much of them in preseason, but that's what sleepers do: show up when you least expect them to.
But really, everyone can goof around and say, "Yeah, I knew N.O. was going to be great last year." All I have to say is it's bull—those are the least that know, because they would have never bet their house they where going to win the division. Like just last week—name one person who even thought Michigan could lose to Appalachian State. Not even their fans would place that bet; heck, I'd test you if you even knew who Appalachian State was before last week.
Each year you get surprise games during the season, but never is this more true than the first week. Everyone is 0-0; everyone has a chance...well, except Cleveland and Kansas City, that is, but everyone else has a chance.
Now...what's so hard about the last week of the season is that it's again a question of who do you predict is going to win between the 2-13 Lions and the 13-2 San Diego backups. How can you call a spread on a meaningless game when some just want to go home and the others don't want to get hurt? It's a thankless job and sometimes can cause hair loss but, for the satisfaction, it's worth it.
There's nothing better than going to the sports bookie's, placing an upset bet, watching the game with all the other guys that went for the sure thing, and seeing how they scream at the TV, cursing at each other and asking themselves how this happens, and there's you sitting in the center with a small grin on your face, savoring every moment...God, it's good sometimes.
So, I've taken enough of your time...let's let the Year One of the A.V. Era begin (After Vick), and on with the games!
New Orleans at Indianapolis -6 Ovr/Und 51
UPSET OF THE WEEK
What better way to start the season than with a huge upset and what really should have been the Super Bowl last year? Both QBs are in season form, and both offenses look great; but of the two regular defenses, I believe the Colts got hurt the most, losing 4 starting players from last season (3 FA, 1 Injury) and their best player (no, it's not Freeney, it's Bob Sanders) isn't 100%. N.O. has too much offensive power for that defense, and even though I know Peyton loves shootouts and they haven't lost an opening game in like 8 years, still—like there was a first time for Peyton to win a SB—there's this one.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans
Philadelphia at Green Bay 3 Ovr/Und 43.5
McNabb looked better than we all expected in preseason, and Green Bay did better than we expected last season, but the reality is that, with the exception of Favre, they're too...well, green! Donald Driver is hurt, and even if the rookie has shown promise, they're a long way away.
Atlanta at Minnesota -3 Ovr/Und 36
I thought that my days of predicting a Joey Harrington game were over; well, I guess I have to suffer for another year. I don't know what to hope for out of both of these two teams. I don't know what to expect from Chilldress anymore...they have no WRs, they have good RBs, and there's a HUGE question mark at QB. Some are hyped about this kid, but not me—I just don't trust another M. Vick Project, especially when the project looks more like Quincy Carter than Vick. Take the Underdog and the Over.
Miami at Washington -3 Ovr/Und 35
Last year, Miami became a punch line, and sometimes I really wonder what would have happened if Saban would have made the choice of taking Brees. Easy game: there's no O-line, one WR, no QB, and a good RB. Not even the Baltimore defense of 2000 could help this team. Campbell looks better, but I'm not sold on the offense until they show they've learned it.
New England at New York Jets 7.5 Ovr/Und 47.5
After winning three Super Bowl rings by himself, this has become Belichick's new Super Bowl. There's just new bad blood between these teams, and you have to love it, a hard-hitting, back-and-forth game where everyone pulls their guns. New England comes into this a little hurt in their D, with two of their three best defensive players out and another top player just back after a long holdout. The Jets have their own problems with the starting of a QB controversy after the second year QB's preseason play; it reminds me a little of the Romo vs. Bledsoe thing last year. Chad always plays his best against New England, but Brady looks like he's in midseason form. Expect a close game, but in the end the master will take the student.
Straight: New England
Spread: New York Jets
Tennessee at Jacksonville -6.5 Ovr/Und 37.5
I have two reasons why the Titans will lose this game, but I will only need one: Madden cover...that's your crystal ball right there, you don't need more. Well, maybe the fact that they also have no receivers and their QB is their best RB—have we said this before in other years of another team? Hhhmmmm. Jacksonville's defense is going to have a feast, and by the end of the game, Garrard is going to make us forget about Left― man, what's his name?
Denver at Buffalo 3.5 Ovr/Und 37
The Bills were better last year than I expected, but they lost their best CB and they're still young. They have upgraded a terrible O-line, but their major problem is J.P Losman can only throw the deep ball—he misses every other pass, and how many deep balls can you throw in a game really? The rookie RB hasn't looked good, and Denver has a pretty solid team even if they're a bunch of crybabies...YES, LYNCH, I'M CALLING YOU A CRYBABY...take Colorado.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland 4.5 Ovr/Und 37.5
4.5! Man, even if it was 15, I would take the spread! The only QB in Cleveland who has thrown a TD in the preseason is holding a clipboard. This game is as sure as it can get in the NFL. By Game 6, the Quinn era begins—trust me.
Carolina at St. Louis pick Ovr/Und 43
The Panthers haven't looked good in a long time...their defense looked weak in preseason. I don't know if they no longer believe in Fox anymore, but they look lost. Steven Jackson's attempt to break LJ's TD record starts here (he won't make it—too many weapons—but it will be a fun ride).
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis
Kansas City at Houston -3 Ovr/Und 38.5
Kansas City reminds me of the Bills of the 90's: lots of talent but not their decade. They've lost their window...the agony starts Sunday. LJ is going to win them some games, but the folks better start talking about the better old days. I expect the QB who we forgot his name to sign here, but he won't help right away. I don't know if Schaub is going to have a great career, but I know he's going to win this game.
Tampa Bay at Seattle -6 Ovr/Und 41
UPSET OF THE WEEK II
Hey, I can't come out and say Tampa is going to be this year's N.O. and back down! Seattle is tough at home—almost unbeatable—so I'm putting my money in the "almost."
Straight: Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay
Chicago at San Diego -5.5 Ovr/Und 42.5
Their defense isn't going to be as good this year...they've lost the guys that let Urlacher and Briggs run free and, well, last I looked Grossman is still the QB. San Diego has all the weapons to make it to the big game this year; let's see if the stage isn't too big for Turner.
Straight: San Diego
Spread: San Diego
Detroit at Oakland -1.5 Ovr/Und 39.5
I can't believe this bad of a bad game hasn't let me sleep. Is Kitna healthy? Is Culpepper the guy that fumbles every snap or the guy that throws TDs? I've gone back and forth on this one, and I usually go with the best defense and home team, but I can't put my money on a 31-year old coach in his first NFL game.
New York Giants at Dallas -5.5 Ovr/Und 44
I was really confident with this game when the schedules came out. Why? It's simple: no Tiki. I didn't need to read more—they just lost 80% of their offensive success with the retirement of one guy. But then Newman gets hurt and we drop almost every CB in the roster, and I think okay...deep ball. Some Moss flashbacks came to my head, and for the first time doubt came to my mind, but suddenly I woke up yesterday with the news that Madison (NY's best CB) has a bad hamstring and won't play, and there's a thing about T.O. lining up against Ross and Webster that puts a smile back in my head.
Baltimore at Cincinnati -2.5 Ovr/Und 40.5
There are some great games we have for opening week, and there's a good star for Monday night. Johnson has looked great, Palmer has looked great, and the whole offense has looked great...their defense is another story. There's only one player I know that loves the spotlight more than Johnson, and that's Ray Lewis. He has the most crazy games on Monday night, and when he's on fire, that whole unit is! Great game, but I'll take the winner of the division on this one.
Arizona at San Francisco -3 Ovr/Und 45
Tell me why the NFL will book a game that only 10 people will stay up until 1am to watch? I just don't get it. It's a good game, don't get me wrong...they're two young teams on the rise, but no way it's a Monday night matchup. Many put San Francisco as this year's N.O., and the team has potential, especially because they have a good defense, but I still think they're one year away. Two good offenses, 1 better defense...I'll go with the defense.
Straight: San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco
Well, that's it. I hope you guys like it! See you on Thursday for another game preview.
|09-06-2007, 02:43 PM||#3|
Join Date: Jan 2006
Re: Prediction League 07 Week 1 Picks
I like the fact that you have two upsets of the week. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on the Saints in Indy, but it's a fun pick. I also like the fact that you have Washington beating the spread. Very kind of you. I don't know if they've completely mastered the offense, but I think they will show you some things. Thanks for the hard work and good luck.
This Monkey's Gone to Heaven
|09-06-2007, 02:49 PM||#4|
Join Date: Aug 2005
Re: Prediction League 07 Week 1 Picks
I just see to many troubles in miami to think they can do a decent Job and trent Green will never be tha same at the fisrt sign of presure or a good hit he'll be playing like Ryan Leaf on a good day