Thoughts on Potential Draft Trade With Cleveland!!!

SmootSmack

Did I miss something? I don't remember reading the story that said the Redskins "made" Betts sign for millions less. Free country, he could have waited until the off-season.

Besides, this is a business and furthermore this only a rumor started by some reporters bored at a basketball game.

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GTripp0012

Well, let me clarify. I'm not suggesting we use the 6th pick to reach on someone who isn't a projected top 10 pick just to pick for need.

With the proposed trade, its reasonable to dismiss the 6th round pick as negligible due to the magnitude of the trade. Ladell Betts is hardly negligible. He carries a pretty significant cap hit, and is capable of running the ball 12-15 times a game to take some of the load off Portis and help extend his career. That is very significant.

In some cases, I would think that moving from 6 up to 3 would justify a trade of Ladell Betts. But only justifiable if there is a once in a lifetime prospect at a need position. So admitting a player meeting that critera could justify a move up, I can see your position on Johnson.

However, I personally do not view Johnson to be a once in a lifetime prospect, nor do I consider wide receiver to be a need position.

Ladell Betts is our 2nd running back. Calvin Johnson would be our 2nd receiver maybe even into his prime, but at least for the first few years of his career. With Cooley on board, he may not even be our second target. Betts, however, should find himself getting between 12 and 15 touches a game. This is significantly more than Johnson would be getting, even as a number one receiver. Certainly, trading Betts for Johnson would hurt our offense in the present, and maybe even in the future depending on how hard it is to find a replacement for Betts.

Additionally in a bind, we can always put Portis or Betts at a slot receiver for extra receiving options. We lose versatility with Johnson in, because we sort of have to keep him, Cooley, and Moss on the field together to have our best players on the field. He really isnt necessary, and he's going to keep some good players off the field.

Inevitably, a receiver will come along next year who is hyped just as much as Calvin Johnson. Then we will be talking about how we have to trade up for him. Truth of the matter is, receivers taken in the top ten do not have a production advantage over receivers taken latter in the round. There really is no reason to expect Calvin Johnson to buck this trend. Be careful of draft hype, it can really toy with your perceptions of a player.

Johnson is the uniamous top receiver in this class, but as soon as we pass the draft, that title means preciously little. He can't produce at a league average level and still justify a top 5 selection. He has to be dominant, and he hasn't proven that he can do that yet at the next level.

You are wrong one account, that WRs and DEs are positions of equal importance. DEs have a strong affect on the outcome of all plays excluding three step drop quick throws. Receiving ability has no baring on the outcome of any rushing play, and not every receiver is equally involved in any given passing play. We are talking 95% of defensive plays compared to maybe 60% of total passing plays, or about 30-35% of total offense. Additionally, theres a school of thought that a defense controls more over the outcome of a play than the offense. If this is true, it further seperates the positional value of DL vs WRs.

That doesn't mean receivers don't play a part in rushing plays. They play a significant part with their blocking. However, this simply is not a significant part of how a scout evaluates a receiver. It's a significant market deficiency, and taking Calvin Johnson in the top 3 picks is NOT exploiting this market deficency. Quality blocking, smart route running receivers can be found later in the round and throughout the draft. Whether or not Johnson is good at these things are irrelivant. We are talking about a player who can be found much, much later and much, much cheaper doing the same things Calvin Johnson is doing to help his team win without all the hype and flash.

Because of the significant market deficiency and of the reduced positional value, taking a WR in the top 10 is almost always a bad idea. If your WR corps need help because your WRs can't run good routes, and they can't or won't block, you have a problem that needs to be fixed. Drafting a receiver in the top 5 is overkill 99% of the time. Even if he can block with the best of them and is disciplined, you've just used a top 5 pick on a set widely available skills. Congratulations.

Evidence of this is found in the fact that teams that sustain sucess don't pick WRs in the first ten picks. They may have some pretty darn good receivers. With the Colts, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison were both first round picks. But neither of them were TOP 10 picks. Reggie Wayne went 30th in 2001. In that same draft, the can't miss prospect of the decade was the incomprable David Terrell, who went 8th to Chicago with just as much hype as CJ has now. The unianimous 2nd best reciever, Koren Robinson, went a pick later. Rod Gardner was the 3rd reciever off the board. Santana Moss and Reggie Wayne didn't have the hype those other guys did, but have done just fine for their careers. Plus, their teams didn't burn top 10 selections for time.

In 1996, Marvin Harrison went 19th overall to the Colts. The Colts once again did not waste a top ten pick, and went on to select one of the greatest receivers ever. The top 2 receivers taken were Keyshawn Johnson first overall, and Terry Glenn seventh. While both have done good things over their careers, they were both bad picks. Johnson (k.) has every bit the amount of hype that Johnson (C.) does now. But that didn't ever make him an elite player. And I think you can agree with me that if CJ does not turn out to be an elite player, its not the best use of a top 5 pick.

Smart football moves involve paying attention to market value. Using your top 5 picks on players who will have the most responsibility within the franchise. Quarterbacks, Defensive Lineman, Left Tackles, Cornerbacks, and elite Running Backs all can justify top 5 picks. Elite players at other postions can justify picks 6-10 assuming you get what you thought you were buying.

We have a very rare case. A defensive line situation which lacks any competant players under the age of 28. Usually teams address this situation before it gets to this point. Now, its all about stopping the bleeding. As of last year, the DL began to show its age, and we are a year later, and still dont have any youth line up. Simply put, we can't go another year without adding youth SOMEWHERE on the DL. It's suicide in the future if we don't. We are already sentenced to another year of poor defensive play. If we don't address it this year, that period of poor defensive play extends through 2008. If we wait any longer, we might as well just onside kick every time.

However, in the interest of answering your question, any offensive line help or the selection of a middle linebacker or cornerback would be a helpful use of the pick. Assuming we get a good player at one of those positions, we fill a future need. It's just that we can't push off adding SOME DL youth any longer. We've waited too long as it is. There is going to be just as strong a facton next year to pass on DL help again. We can't be a good defense again until 1) we get highly touted youth in the system, and 2) the youth we get gaines experience and moves toward the prime of its career.

#1 can be satisfied later this month. #2 will take at least a season. But honestly, how much longer can we wait?

With the Briggs deal, at least we still can pick up some highly touted youth at No. 31. With the Johnson deal, we lose that option, and we don't even get the defensive help that Briggs brings. As much as I am against the Briggs deal, it's better for the team in most every conceivable way (excluding cap value) than a trade up to No. 3 for CJ.

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SmootSmack

brevity is the soul of wit

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GTripp0012

Well, no. I think they are evaluated improperly which is something completely different. The ultimate effect is that the guys who are evaluated to be the really, really cream of the crop best of the best are probably no better than the next tier. The success-failure rates of most top ten picks support my theory. Don't generalize when it isn't necessary.

Getting an Anquan Boldin impact from a 2nd round pick such as...Anquan Boldin is really good value. Getting equal production from a top 3 pick isn't all that special, and with our current D Line situation a WR that is of Anquan Boldin's caliber just doesn't improve our team much at all. It's not like we are a team without any receiving options--not even close.

Tell Kansas City and San Diego that ignoring WRs early in the draft can bottleneck your offense.

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RobH4413

touché

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GMScud

GTripp, I'm not gonna quote your whole post b/c it's wicked long, but dead on. You and I see 100% eye to eye on this issue. If there is one thing the Skins FO should have learned by now with all the bad moves we've made, it's IGNORE THE HYPE. Bread and butter baby. Run the ball, stop the run. STOP THE RUN. Calvin Johnson may well end up putting up Randy Moss type numbers. But he's just as easily a bust. Just ask the Lions how well drafting a WR prospect with gaudy combine numbers worked out for them. D-line is where we need help. Address the need. Address the need.

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GTripp0012

Ignore the hype is the entire key to building a successful franchise in this league.

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Shanahan: “The bad thing is he's [Sav Rocca] probably our best offensive weapon and that’s not good.”

GMScud

Brevity may not be one of GTripp's attributes, but his posts are dead on with regard to this CJ topic. I hate the idea of mortgaging more of the Redskins roster/future on hype. We should know better by now.

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GTripp0012

Actually, in the Lions case, they took mega hyped wide receivers (one of the critical errors of building a franchise), a mistake they made way too many times. In defense of Matt Millen, it's just horrible luck that his WR crop of 2003-2005 was as crappy as it was. However, that was 3 years in a row where he passed on players at impact positions on a team that had a lot more serious issues than WR. Even if he had gotten something out of Rogers and Williams, he still made 3 critical errors. Roy Williams appears to have himself a career, but he's going to have to pick up his play in order to justify the 7th overall pick. The other two are just inexcusable.

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GTripp0012

Sometimes, I have stuff to say.

*shrugs*

I'm no english major.

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Shanahan: “The bad thing is he's [Sav Rocca] probably our best offensive weapon and that’s not good.”

That Guy

1200-1400 yards/season consistently is nothing special?
when exactly did KC or SD win their last SB? lack of a true grade-A #1 WR has definately hurt their offenses, though both have monster TEs to help.

what about the certain super bowl with 3 1,000 yard WRs? what about the colt's 3 target passing attack? It certainly didn't hurt them.

DE bust rate is about 50%, it's really not any better than QBs or WRs. I mean, if you want we can throw straw men around all day about why drafting any position other than offensive guard in the first round is likely to be a bust, but that'd be fairly pointless (and yeah, OGs and Cs bust rate are SUPER SUPER low cause very very few go in the 1st round, and those that do go that high are rate VERY highly, like hutch).

I do agree that DEs are always higher priority at equal talent, and even for us it'd probably be a better pick, since our need is dire. That doesn't mean CJ wouldn't help, that he's not the best WR prospect in quite a few years, or that we don't have a gaping hole at the #2 WR spot.

a true #1 WR beats an overpaid LB or a high contract SS, etc though. While signing ian scott and drafting adams or carriker would be much smarter in terms or winning games next year, this deal would beat the briggs or landry rumors in terms of usefulness.

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GMScud

Roy Williams looks like he can be a great WR. Charles Rodgers, Mike Williams, etc.... I don't have the info in front of me, but I'm sure there were some solid QB's, RB's, and O-lineman taken long after them that would be helping that team a ton if their FO had any brains. Point being, the Lions are just an example of how you need to address needs in the draft, not just make that sexy pick.

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GTripp0012

Both Briggs and Landry are defensive players, so I'd have to assume they'd bring more help than CJ. Still, the correct move is to go DT or at the very least DE.

Every year, 31 teams do not win the super bowl. That doesn't mean Kansas City and San Diego did not create cream of the crop offenses over the past few years without paying too much attention to WRs. The Patriots and Eagles don't overvalue WRs either and their track record is even more successful than KC or SD overall, just not on the offensive end.

Again, the Colts did not invest top 10 picks into highly hyped wide receivers. They obviously value the position, but when they got those top picks, they made selections like Edgerrin James, Peyton Manning, and Dwight Freeney (who was the 11th pick in 2002 I think).

Bust rate...it happens. When you aren't talking about QBs, drafting the right guy is at least somewhat a function of luck. But you can always increase your chances of drafting quality players by focusing on the guys with the most college experience. Once a guy hits the NFL, he's going to be subjected to the same amount of practice time as every player of his class, so it's impossible to make a gain on experience on someone after draft day. Obviously, injuries are relatively unpredictable and will hinder development (see: Grossman, Rex), but if a guy only started for 2 seasons in college and then came out, your team is better off looking at a 4 year starter.

Obviously all the experience in the world won't make up for a significant gap in skill, but 4 year starters who become high draft picks don't bust all that often.

As I stated in prior posts, it's possible that CJ could hurt our offense as a rookie if the human nature of playcalling underutilizes Moss and Cooley upon his arrival. Additionally, it reduces the number of packages we can use when he, Moss, and Cooley all need playing time. No one is saying that he doesn't represent a significant upgrade over Randle El in a vaccuum, but the practical application of a "dominant" No. 2 receiver to this offense seems like the epitome of overkill.

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Shanahan: “The bad thing is he's [Sav Rocca] probably our best offensive weapon and that’s not good.”