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The downside to trading down.

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Old 04-17-2007, 07:28 PM   #1
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The downside to trading down.

It looks like a consensus is forming that there isn't a whole lot of first round talent in this draft. It looks like this is a good draft to be drafting early in round one to get a shot at one of the top 7 or 8 players, or in the mid teens or so to get a crack at one of the few second tier first rounders. After the late teens or so, this draft apparently drops to a lot of second round talents, so having a stockpile of second and third round picks is also looking good, because the real sharp talent drop off in the first round is going to make it so the late first round picks aren't going to be a great deal better that their second and third round counterparts.

With that said, I think that overall depiction of this years crop of draftees makes me very hesitant to do anything to land us in the late first round. We have heard a lot of people talk about "value" this offseason. It would appear that the value is around where we're picking and down a couple spots. If we trade too far down we could wind up paying a second round talent first round money, which is exactly what this team doesn't need.

Here is a Peter King (we hate him) article on the topic.

SI.com - Writers - Peter King: Not enough talent to justify first-round money in draft - Monday April 16, 2007 1:12PM

Thoughts?
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Old 04-17-2007, 07:51 PM   #2
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Re: The downside to trading down.

IMO there is NO downside to trading down PERIOD........Peter the Peter just like the rest of um.
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Old 04-17-2007, 08:02 PM   #3
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Re: The downside to trading down.

more draft picks = good thing. just my 2 cents worth
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Old 04-17-2007, 08:09 PM   #4
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Re: The downside to trading down.

I still believe that the best thing to do is get more picks this year. We can sign the start in free agency, but we need two solid players from this draft.
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Old 04-17-2007, 08:15 PM   #5
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Re: The downside to trading down.

I have heard the opposite - that outside of the top 4 or 5 picks there is not a lot of seperation between the players. Also, there are no true elite defensive players in this draft. Since defense is ostensibly where we are looking, I would think trading down would make more sense this year, especially if we are targeting a certain player we believe will still be available further back.
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Old 04-18-2007, 05:54 PM   #6
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Re: The downside to trading down.

Trading down is far more beneficial than trading up. Just look at what the Chargers got when the drafted and traded Eli Manning. If Eli doesnt start picking up the play that might go down as one of the most uneven trades of all time. To trade up you always spend more than what a player is worth. And because the draft is so unpredicatable having more picks is better than putting all your eggs in one basket. If you trade up and the player you pick plays like garbage...Eli Manning you might screw your team over for years to come. On the other side you might pass up on a great player like Reggie Bush because you think you have more pressing needs. The Texans are idiots. The lesson is dont be like the giants or texans
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Old 04-18-2007, 05:56 PM   #7
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Re: The downside to trading down.

I'm fine if we stay put or trade down. Trading up is NOT an option.
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Old 04-18-2007, 08:29 PM   #8
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Re: The downside to trading down.

Can we find second half of round one picks over the last five to ten years? Maybe the answer can be had with them. I know there have been some real good late first rounders, but some bad ones too. What are they like on average. The NFL draft is kind of like a baseball game, you don't know what is going to happen but you should almost always play the averages.
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Old 04-18-2007, 08:35 PM   #9
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Re: The downside to trading down.

I really don't care if we trade down, or use the draft pick...I care about actually making the most of these draft picks. If that means getting Okoye, fine, if that means, getting Gaines Adams, fine, if that means getting more picks, I'm all for it, but don't take a freakin chance on another Patrick Ramsey type player. Use the draft for needs!!!!
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Old 04-18-2007, 09:24 PM   #10
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Re: The downside to trading down.

* He said this year's first round talent isn't as good as last year's star-studded first round.

"There's not much difference between the guy that goes 45 and the guy that goes 25," he said. "There are going to be some guys that go in the first round that aren't necessarily worthy."

Since not many people responded, I thought maybe hearing it from the biggest draft guru on the planet might stir up some less one sided debate. I still say we need more picks, but we also need to be sure that we land one of these two guys:

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

* Kiper is also high on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, another player on the Redskins' radar screen.

"You see a lot of the same qualities in Okoye that you do in Calvin Johnson -- tremendously mature and productive week in and week out," he said. "Athletically and strength-wise, he's what you want."

We must have one of these two players sitting at our position. If they are both there at six I would take a 3rd, 4th or perhaps even a fifth rounder to move down a spot. Best case is that one of the QB's is there as well. We can't get too greedy about what we get back. We need one of those two and a pick if possible. We cannot settle for less. If we trade too far down we are really setting up for an overpaid second round talent who gets paid first round money. Unacceptable.
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Old 04-18-2007, 09:29 PM   #11
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Re: The downside to trading down.

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Originally Posted by TenandSix:Unacceptable View Post
* He said this year's first round talent isn't as good as last year's star-studded first round.

"There's not much difference between the guy that goes 45 and the guy that goes 25," he said. "There are going to be some guys that go in the first round that aren't necessarily worthy."

Since not many people responded, I thought maybe hearing it from the biggest draft guru on the planet might stir up some less one sided debate. I still say we need more picks, but we also need to be sure that we land one of these two guys:

* He is high on LSU safety LaRon Landry -- Kiper's mock draft has the Redskins taking Landry.

"He should be a Pro Bowl caliber player," he said. "He'll be better than Roy Williams, no question."

* Kiper is also high on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, another player on the Redskins' radar screen.

"You see a lot of the same qualities in Okoye that you do in Calvin Johnson -- tremendously mature and productive week in and week out," he said. "Athletically and strength-wise, he's what you want."

We must have one of these two players sitting at our position. If they are both there at six I would take a 3rd, 4th or perhaps even a fifth rounder to move down a spot. Best case is that one of the QB's is there as well. We can't get too greedy about what we get back. We need one of those two and a pick if possible. We cannot settle for less. If we trade too far down we are really setting up for an overpaid second round talent who gets paid first round money. Unacceptable.
No, no, no...Either we get Okoye / Gaines Adams, or we trade WAY down. Landry is not the answer for the Skins.
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Old 04-18-2007, 09:34 PM   #12
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Re: The downside to trading down.

I would'nt mind trading down, best scenario if Quinn or Russell fell to #6, highly unlikely but thats where we'd get the most, many teams would be willing to give up a lot.
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Old 04-18-2007, 09:38 PM   #13
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Re: The downside to trading down.

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I would'nt mind trading down, best scenario if Quinn or Russell fell to #6, highly unlikely but thats where we'd get the most, many teams would be willing to give up a lot.

This is why I try to stay away from draft day comments, cause we do not need a Russell or a Quinn...that would be a waste of a pick unless we planned to trade them.
We have glaring needs, and we need the draft to address these needs.
Not that it matters, but neither of those 2 will be available.
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Old 04-18-2007, 10:02 PM   #14
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Re: The downside to trading down.

The fact of the matter is nobody knows if the talent is good in the draft or not. There are always good players in every draft and the good organizations are gonna find them. I gaurentee you Ozzie Newsome won't have any problems finding players. Vinny Cerrato might find it hard.
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Old 04-18-2007, 10:31 PM   #15
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Re: The downside to trading down.

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Originally Posted by jsarno View Post
No, no, no...Either we get Okoye / Gaines Adams, or we trade WAY down. Landry is not the answer for the Skins.
If we trade WAY down, it better be all the way out of the first round. I'm telling you, based on very legit sources, this draft doesn't have a full stock of first round talents. Getting a late first is a terrible move unless it is part of a trade that gets us a BUNCH of seconds, thirds and fourths. For instance, if we got a late first and a second, we have the potential to shell out a lot of cash and have a couple of scrubs in return. Landry is the best athlete IN THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA. He will not bust barring injury and he will be a first year starter and projects as a pro bowler. He will help out our entire back seven, allow ST to roam/headhunt, and take pressure off our cornerbacks.

We're going to have our pick of these two. We should at least expect one of them. The DL is in need of some serious attention, I don't deny it, but you can't fix everything in one offseason and passing up on BPA's for need in the NFL draft is crazy talk unless it means us taking Peterson which would be ridiculous. If they wanted a full slate of draft picks they should have thought about it before being complete ass clowns the last couple years. Gains Adams is the next best option IMO. There are questions about how he'd fit in with us, that's why he worries me so high. But if they trade WAY down as you say, there will be no Adams, no Carriker, no Okoye, no Branch, no Landry. If this was a different type of draft, then trading down to the end of the round would be a great idea. This is not the draft to drop out of the top 14 or so. We can't afford to spend first day money on undeserving chumps and projects.

I am hoping for Landry more and more now just to prove all these haters wrong. Like I've been saying, IF we take LL and the team still sucks, there's always 2008. LL is worth top dollar in terms of talent, the question is does he translate into wins? As far as I can see, our success depends more on JC than anyone we draft. If JC plays well, I'll take a LL and ST lead D into any building in the league, and I'll be damn confident too. We'll see what we do. Whatever it is, I am on record as saying it doesn't look good late first round of this draft. Private message me in three years if I'm wrong.
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