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Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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Old 04-22-2007, 07:50 PM   #16
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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Originally Posted by skinsfan_nn View Post
If we were drafting a QB, I would only hope we would take Quinn over Russell. IMO there is a good chance Russell will be the next Leaf.
The differences between Leaf and Russell is that Russell's college production looks monsterous compared to Leaf. Russell just simply didn't play enough college football to adequately prepare himself for the next level. I think the next Joey Harrington, David Carr, or Rex Grossman would be more accurate comparisions.
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Old 04-22-2007, 07:52 PM   #17
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

Quinn vs. Russell is similar to Shane Battier vs. Kwame Brown. The Wizards could have taken Battier who showed throughout his college career that he was a very good player and had all the tangible and intangbile qualities to be a solid pro player.

But Brown was phenomenal in workouts, absolutely abusing other top prospects include Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry. And his "rawness" made him more appealing to coaches/front office staff who thought he had untapped potential that they could bring out, whereas Battier was as good as he was going to get.

Well, six years later maybe Battier has been nothing more than a solid serviceable player and he is as good as he is going to get. But what he is is pretty good, whereas Brown has to be one of the biggest busts ever.

Another analogy, it's like when some girl wants to date the "bad boy" because she thinks she can change him while the nice guy sits in the corner wondering what the heck just happened here.

I guess what I'm trying to say is scouts/coaches/front office execs etc. sometimes try to force things that aren't there and may never be there largely because of their egos, yet fail to see what's right in front of them. In the immortal words of Gmanc711 sometimes "it is what it is"
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Old 04-22-2007, 07:52 PM   #18
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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Hey, if he redefines the position and changes the way defenses play for good, I'll eat crow every day for 5 years.

I'm just wondering what all this hype is being based on.

It's just that WR grading has become so piss poor, that you are better off taking the last remaining receiver of a certain group (like Robert Meachem as opposed to CJ) than to take the most hyped guy. History argues that they have an equal chance at success, and one costs you way less.
Haha I will need to hold you to that. I dont know about the complete redefinition, but I think he will be very good.

But back to the thread, I think there is something else the experts have against Quinn. They just want the bigger, stronger QB rather the smarter experienced one. I still dont get it.
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Old 04-22-2007, 07:56 PM   #19
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

Unfairly to Quinn, I'm sure a lot of NFL teams are comparing him to the last two highly touted Notre Dame QBs-Ron Powlus and Rick Mirer-both who were complete busts.

Unfairly to Russell, I'm sure a lot of NFL teams are saying "Wow, he's just like Vince Young"
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:07 PM   #20
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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But back to the thread, I think there is something else the experts have against Quinn. They just want the bigger, stronger QB rather the smarter experienced one. I still dont get it.
This point is probably worthy of its own thread topic. But since Russell vs. Quinn may be the shining example that ushers in the new era of scouting principles, this may be the best place to make this point.

I'll try to keep this brief. It's not my strongsuit.

Russell vs. Quinn is just the most fitting example of all the problems that are wrong with scouting today. Among them:

1) The gross refusal to learn from past mistakes
2) The overvaluation of skills that do not contribute to winning football OR contribute far less than we are led to believe
3) The TV scouting media is centered around just a few select opinions, and these select few (exception to Kiper) aren't the hardest workers, to say the least.
4) The out-of-control media hype machine and the cutthroat, dangerous nature surrounding the draft.
5) The inability to admit even the possibility that the qualities that created a good football player 40 years ago just maybe might be somewhat obsolete (see: Roy Williams, Dallas Safety)
6) The perception of the draft being a crapshoot and a lack of desire to even attempt to improve scouting techniques to gain a competitive edge.
7) The inexplicable slow nature of incorporating college statistics into the scouting process.
8) The ridiculous emphasis on the combine and the pride that scouts defend the value of the combine with.
9) The ridiculous inability to correctly evaluate NFL talent even when you get to see these guys play every Sunday.
10) The refusal to realize that rookie football players are almost always a liability and the propensity of teams to draft for immediate need, when they should be trying to draft for future need.
11) The propensity to give up on a successful prospect way too early
12) Teams that hold onto a worthless prospect way too long

I'm sure theres a few I forgot, but these inherent biases (and some scouts may avoid Quinn like the plague because they learned to hate ND at a young age...it happens) are causing the draft to become a crapshoot. Either more people will realize stuff like this and there will be a leaguewide upheavel of scouting departments, or a select few teams will fix these principles, and dominate the league while the other teams wallow in their ignorance. With sabremetric football evaluation starting to gain popularity, some teams will get a lot better at avoiding busts in the draft and through FA. The question is, will all teams adhere to this, or just a select few?

These are going to be a very interesting next couple of offseasons.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:09 PM   #21
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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The differences between Leaf and Russell is that Russell's college production looks monsterous compared to Leaf. Russell just simply didn't play enough college football to adequately prepare himself for the next level. I think the next Joey Harrington, David Carr, or Rex Grossman would be more accurate comparisions.
In case you don't remember, Leaf had a successful college career at Washington State University, where he was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy his junior year. He was selected as the second overall pick, first overall pick was......that's right Manning in the 1998 NFL Draft, after which many scouts predicted that Leaf would have a stellar career in the NFL. I guess they were wrong to.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:12 PM   #22
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

We can talk about this subject 500 different ways. The only way to tell is about 2-3 years from now. No one has a crystal ball. Brady Quinn is probably better prepared to play right now. But Russell has the higher ceiling and better physical gifts. I think we can all agree on those two things. So who freaking knows? There is no such thing as a draft expert.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:14 PM   #23
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

GTripp,
Do you seriously think hatred for ND would cause a professional scout to make his decision differently?

On the other points, I agree to an extent. For some reason I refuse to believe that all scouts and front offices are plagued by this lack of rationality. I mean these guys are doing this professionally with better resources and knowledge.

You really think they will continue to make mistakes? Why wouldnt GMs get other people to help?
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:16 PM   #24
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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We can talk about this subject 500 different ways. The only way to tell is about 2-3 years from now. No one has a crystal ball. Brady Quinn is probably better prepared to play right now. But Russell has the higher ceiling and better physical gifts. I think we can all agree on those two things. So who freaking knows? There is no such thing as a draft expert.
There are definitely people, currently in the draft media, who should not be making their own mock drafts because they dont even know wtf they are talking about.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:18 PM   #25
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
The differences between Leaf and Russell is that Russell's college production looks monsterous compared to Leaf. Russell just simply didn't play enough college football to adequately prepare himself for the next level. I think the next Joey Harrington, David Carr, or Rex Grossman would be more accurate comparisions.
I would say the jury is still out on Grossman. I mean he did lead his team to the SB in his first year starting.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:19 PM   #26
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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GTripp,
Do you seriously think hatred for ND would cause a professional scout to make his decision differently?

On the other points, I agree to an extent. For some reason I refuse to believe that all scouts and front offices are plagues by this lack of rationality. I mean these guys are doing this professionally with better resources and knowledge.

You really think they will continue to make mistakes? Why wouldnt GMs get other people to help?
Because no GMs even realize that this is an issue. I'm sure Scott Pioli in NE realized this a long time before I did, and had such a huge advantage that it wasn't even fair. I'm sure Pioli also realizes theres a lot left for him to learn.

Most scouts I'm sure think that they've been around the game long enough to know all that the game has to offer. But who can blame them? No one is going to admit they spent a 30 year career doing something incorrectly.

I don't think all scouts that think Russell is better than Quinn hate ND, but I'm sure theres somebody who is critiquing Russell and Quinn differently because of a bias.

I'm also sure some people think Charlie Weis is a genius and just assume that Quinn is good because he says. And that's a horrible reason to draft Quinn.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:24 PM   #27
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

I would think being successful as a scout, a key thing would be the ability to learn, adapt, and change. Why would a successful agent do the same exact thing for 30 years?

I am not trying to be an ass, I just dont buy into stuff that sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:24 PM   #28
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

From what I understand, people are concerned about Quinns arm in making a lot of NFL throws and he's missed open receivers in college, so they're afraid he won't be able to hit what's considered open in the NFL.

I think Russell will rely less on an offensive line and be able to go down the field better than Quinn. As with all prospects, I think more than anything it comes down to the system and situation each player is in.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:28 PM   #29
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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We can talk about this subject 500 different ways. The only way to tell is about 2-3 years from now. No one has a crystal ball. Brady Quinn is probably better prepared to play right now. But Russell has the higher ceiling and better physical gifts. I think we can all agree on those two things. So who freaking knows? There is no such thing as a draft expert.
You don't need a crystal ball when you can correlate 10 years of draft prospects success rate to their college experience. Russell only started 29 games. I don't need a freakin crystal ball to know that he is never going to be an elite player.

Brady Quinn is better prepared right now (46 starts), and this will never change barring injury. There is a common misconception that players have "floors" and "ceilings".

But isn't this concept just a giant neon admittance that the grading process that is used today has flaws.

Think about it. In reality, every player lies at a definate point somewhere between his "floor" and his "ceiling". So all a floor and ceiling really are is an allowance for scouting error. Correct?

So when somebody says "Player X has a lower floor than player Y, but a higher ceiling", what I hear is "I have no freaking clue how to grade prospects".

Please don't take that personally, because its not a knock on you Skinsfan69, it's a knock on the entire process that we have come to accept.

What we can all agree on is that either Quinn is better than Russell or Russell is better than Quinn. That seems redundant, but the concept of floors and ceilings allows scouts to creatively dart around what their actual job is, ranking the players.

We as fans should NOT accept floors and ceilings, because that's just simply a cop out for not scouting a prospect well enough. We should try our best to pinpoint each guys career path prior to the draft, like I have done, and let the QBs themselves prove us right or wrong.
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Old 04-22-2007, 08:30 PM   #30
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Re: Is Russell really better than Quinn?

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I would think being successful as a scout, a key thing would be the ability to learn, adapt, and change. Why would a successful agent do the same exact thing for 30 years?

I am not trying to be an ass, I just dont buy into stuff that sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory.
Ok, then disregard what I said about the ND bias. It's really just a small piece of evidence for the much more important point that scouts suck at their jobs, and in most cases don't even complete their work. Thus the concepts of floors and ceilings evolve.
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