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Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Old 04-24-2007, 12:32 PM   #46
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha View Post
Good point re: salary cap considerations. As I posted in another thread, for those of you who want to trade up to #2 to nab CJ, just consider that Reggie Bush got $23M guaranteed on a deal averaging $10M per year. Aside from Brady, Manning, Palmer, or Brees, is there anyone worth $10M per year?
Peter King began to touch on this issue in his latest MMQB entry, and I hope he goes into it further in the future. The draft was created as the great equalizer in the NFL. If your team stunk, you got the highest pick. If you were great, you got the lowest pick.

This worked well as an equalizing force in the pre-salary cap era. And to some extent it still worked well in the 1990s because the salaries at the top of the draft weren't so exhorbitant that they'd kill your cap. But now that salaries of the top 5 players in the draft have gotten so high, you wonder if teams are now better off being in the middle or even the end of the 1st round. The risk associated with missing on such a high-dollar player has risen right along with the rising contracts. With this increased risk, having the #1 pick is often viewed as a bad thing in a lot of ways. King told a story of how last year Charley Casserly called Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and asked him if he'd be interested in trading for the Texans' #1 overall pick. Tannenbaum said "Sure, what else are you going to give me for it?"

The draft value chart which Jimmy Johnson's staff created in the early 1990s was spot-on back then. A #1 pick really was worth 3000 points. But now that the #1 pick commands over $20 million in guaranteed money, it's no wonder that nobody wants to trade up anymore. 3000 points and $25 million guaranteed? No way, Jose. The draft value chart needs to be adjusted to account for the massive change in salary structure.

That's why we'd be so much better off trading down if we can find a willing partner.
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Old 04-24-2007, 01:00 PM   #47
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
Peter King began to touch on this issue in his latest MMQB entry, and I hope he goes into it further in the future. The draft was created as the great equalizer in the NFL. If your team stunk, you got the highest pick. If you were great, you got the lowest pick.

This worked well as an equalizing force in the pre-salary cap era. And to some extent it still worked well in the 1990s because the salaries at the top of the draft weren't so exhorbitant that they'd kill your cap. But now that salaries of the top 5 players in the draft have gotten so high, you wonder if teams are now better off being in the middle or even the end of the 1st round. The risk associated with missing on such a high-dollar player has risen right along with the rising contracts. With this increased risk, having the #1 pick is often viewed as a bad thing in a lot of ways. King told a story of how last year Charley Casserly called Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum and asked him if he'd be interested in trading for the Texans' #1 overall pick. Tannenbaum said "Sure, what else are you going to give me for it?"

The draft value chart which Jimmy Johnson's staff created in the early 1990s was spot-on back then. A #1 pick really was worth 3000 points. But now that the #1 pick commands over $20 million in guaranteed money, it's no wonder that nobody wants to trade up anymore. 3000 points and $25 million guaranteed? No way, Jose. The draft value chart needs to be adjusted to account for the massive change in salary structure.

That's why we'd be so much better off trading down if we can find a willing partner.
good summary, I've thought for a while that the draft is antiquated w/the cap & free agency, but it continues as part of the cba simply due to it lending some structure to rookie contracts, even if the top ones are getting way high. It would take a total overhaul of the system to replace it, and given the 11th hour style of negotiating between the nflpa & nfl that has been too much in the past.
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Old 04-24-2007, 02:06 PM   #48
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Nothing, and though most don't like Pasquarelli he does have an article on ESPN.com that goes right to this point.

Excerpt:
"Since 2000, there have been 26 defensive tackles selected in the first round and 59 chosen as first-day picks. Only six have played in even one Pro Bowl game, and 15 are out of the NFL entirely right now. The 2001 draft produced five of the six Pro Bowl tackles chosen since 2000 -- Seymour, Stroud, Casey Hampton, Jenkins and Rogers -- and the league might never see such a bounty at the position again."

Full Article:
ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Pasquarelli: Teams struggle to find right inside man


Maybe this fact, along with others are the reasons why the Redskins de-emphasize the draft and choose to aquire key players through FA. That has not always proved fruitful either, but at least they have some knowlrdge about how the player can/will perform on the NFL level. The draft is, and always will be a crap-shoot with the exception of a very few players. No one knows how a young player is going to perform uintil he puts on the uniform in the heat of battle, then the words "heart" and "desire" come to the forefront and seperate the men from the boys.
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Old 04-24-2007, 02:58 PM   #49
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

I've got one name I still think Jarvis Moss is going to be a star, and he's very underrated at this point, I look at production on the field not a few days evaluation at a combine ..and this guy produces...of course this would have to be a trade down...
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Old 04-24-2007, 03:25 PM   #50
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Well if they don't think he's ready, they try Golston first. Might produce the same effect though.
Yeah, you could just as easily add Golston along with Griff and Salave'a. I'm not as sold on him the way others are.

But hey, maybe Okoye is everything they say and more -- so just like Sean Taylor, it won't take as long to bust into the lineup.

Assuming they draft him, of course.
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Old 04-24-2007, 04:33 PM   #51
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

Generally speaking, u would rather have a "playmaker" at the safety position and a solid player at the DT spot then vice versa...besides franchise players or elite player or whatever u wanna call them are more important on the offensive side. The best defenses are those with good players that buy into a system and play team defense. Even though a team has a stellar D-lineman doesn't mean they are going to help that defense function. More likely, depth will help the unit better itself...so i guess 2 or 3 starters are better than 1 Okoye.
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Old 04-24-2007, 04:41 PM   #52
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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What makes Okoye a can't miss, future Pro Bowler?
I completely agree. It seems that everyone on this site thinks Okoye is something great but im really not sold on him. His selling points are that he is 19(hopefully will grow), a good character guy, and had a pretty good career but his career in no way indicates that he will be a dominate player in comparison to other DE's and DT's projected to go in the 1st round. He also played in the big east, as a hugh WVU fan I feel the Big east is a little underrated but i do realize that it doesnt have anything on the sec where alot of the other prospects are coming from. I would much rather trade down and pick up 2 defensive lineman then to push in all the chips on Okoye who is so overhyped in my opinion based on the fact that he is 19. A player I personally would love to pick up late is Jarvis Moss who has slipped considerably but who was a beast in the Sec, tore it up in the championship game, and who i have been seen be compared to former florida gator jevon kearse.
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Old 04-24-2007, 04:56 PM   #53
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

I like Okoye because he was a good college player & he still has a lot of upside. Mainly though, I think he's a guy that's humble & smart & will work hard & gell w/the team rather than expect things to come to him.

After reading about Landry this morning on wash post, I do think he doesn't sound like a good fit with Taylor. Basically you'd have two guys that can do the same things, but neither seems cut out to be a leader in the secondary.

Landry is the flashy pick & maybe he has more potential as an nfl star, but Okoye seems like a guy that will be at least a solid starter for years.

Jarvis Moss is another G. Adams type, I don't see him fitting in here. A lot of teams are looking at him to play olb in a 3-4.
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Old 04-25-2007, 01:46 AM   #54
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

Holmester you're the homie, finally someone is seeing the top of the draft usually has a lot of fluff and the real gems are overlooked(Jarvis Moss) and picked later then they say what a find ..
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Old 04-25-2007, 01:52 AM   #55
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Holmester you're the homie, finally someone is seeing the top of the draft usually has a lot of fluff and the real gems are overlooked(Jarvis Moss) and picked later then they say what a find ..
Why Jarvis Moss and not Okoye?
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Old 04-25-2007, 01:55 AM   #56
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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I've got one name I still think Jarvis Moss is going to be a star, and he's very underrated at this point, I look at production on the field not a few days evaluation at a combine ..and this guy produces...of course this would have to be a trade down...
Are you from Florida, or a Florida fan?
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Old 04-25-2007, 02:10 AM   #57
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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Are you from Florida, or a Florida fan?
I like Jarvis Moss too. I am going to be keeping my eye on him. I am a VT fan (Pre shooting). I didn't just jump on the bandwagon thats comming. Just like the one with the Saints.
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Old 04-25-2007, 02:13 AM   #58
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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I like Jarvis Moss too. I am going to be keeping my eye on him. I am a VT fan (Pre shooting). I didn't just jump on the bandwagon thats comming. Just like the one with the Saints.
I haven't watched a single Florida game, so I am unaware of his prowess. However, I have come to the conclusion that just about any DE we can get should be better than our DE's minus carter.
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Old 04-25-2007, 02:19 AM   #59
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Re: Is trading down worth giving up the chance to take a future Pro-Bowler

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I haven't watched a single Florida game, so I am unaware of his prowess. However, I have come to the conclusion that just about any DE we can get should be better than our DE's minus carter.
True
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