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ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

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Old 02-23-2011, 08:18 PM   #211
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

I think Blaine Gabbert is going to be a bust. (Partly because my brother has convinced me that nobody named Blaine Gabbert can possibly be an NFL star.)

I think Cam Newton is a wild card, but most likely will have a solid career. He will get eaten alive in the playoffs the few times he happens to take his team into the postseason.

I think Mallet is a total wild card as well. He might put up some big numbers at the next level, but he has no chance to be an NFL champion. He will have even less success in the postseason than Newton if he ever makes it there.

I think Locker is risky too, but is the least risky of the four. He also has the most upside by far.

Don't forget Jake Locker is faster than Cam Newton and he has the same caliber arm if not bigger. He is the true physical freak of this draft.

The reasons for me will always be tape.

I call it the Brady Quinn/Tom Brady comparison. After calling on this board that Brady Quinn would be a straight up bust I figured I should compare every big tool top rated QB to the way Brady Quinn spoke with his play on the field in college.

After saying on this board many times that Tom Brady is the best football player I have ever seen I also like to compare the college studs to the man who almost never loses in the NFL.

The less you play like Brady Quinn.....the more I like you.

The more you play like Tom Brady.....the more I like you.

Doesn't matter what style you play. It's all about fluid motion and anticipation as certain type of plays unfold.

These types of plays don't happen on the college gridiron as much as you might think. You have to look for them.

One of the big examples of what I am talking about here is QB's that target covered receivers. Where do they throw the ball and why? Watch every one of those plays over and over when evaluating the jump to the next level.

Locker's play in college shows me that he is the only one of these four QB's who already understands the language NFL QB's need to master.

It was more obvious with Sam Bradford who I loved on this board last year well before the combine and pro days because that guy is freakishly accurate and a beautiful football player, but I see the same NFL nuance in Lockers game.

If he can improve his accuracy he will be an elite NFL QB.

That's my call on the top four QB's.

PS - I hate stats(sorry GTripp) especially college QB stats. With one exception and that is accuracy stats. Yes I know Lockers accuracy is a question mark, but I think he will be an exception to the rule.
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Old 02-23-2011, 08:24 PM   #212
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Yeah Dirtbag, there have been many many stories about Mallet and his off-field activities. Not worth taking the chance in my opinion
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Old 02-23-2011, 09:34 PM   #213
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag359 View Post
The two main factors in QB success at the pro level are grasping the mental aspects such as preparation/reading defenses and accuracy. Locker has the first part but that accuracy part just reminds me way to much of McNabb. Maybe it's just that his mechanics are off and he'll be more willing to work on them then McNabb was but it just seems like another guy that won't be able to hit receivers even when he has time.

It's getting to the point where Mallet and Ponder are the only two rookie QB's that I have any interest in seeing us draft. Maybe Gabbert but he seems to pedestrian (read: average). Some like Dalton but I think we already have a guy like Dalton on our roster with Beck. Sure Becks pushing 30, but I would much rather use the pick we would use on Dalton for someone that can play in the trenches and experiment with Beck if it came down to that.

Also I'd like to take this time to remind everyone that I was told time and time again that this was going to be an amazing QB class and that last years group was terrible. So much for projections.

Here's a quick rundown of how I currently view the top QB's in this class:

Gabbert - Spread QB that couldn't come close to the numbers put up by UDFA Chase Daniels. Seems to have all the physical tools and a good head on his shoulders so he seems like he could succeed in the right situation. Still lack of big numbers in a spread system is a concern for me.

+ Physical tools, Football IQ, Coachable
- Spread QB, Lack of huge numbers in Spread System, Junior QB


Newton - Was willing to overlook the Spread QB label until the "icon and entertainer" line. Seems his motivation for money (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) heavily outweighs his love of the game. He has all the physical tools but I don't trust him to prepare nearly as much as he should once he gets paid. Plus he doesn't have the ideal background when you're look for a QB in the draft, which again I was willing to overlook until his recent declaration. The main thing teams need to find out is if he's Big Ben or Vince Young.

+ Amazing Physical Tools, History of success despite numerous off field distractions, Said to be coachable
- Maturity, Spread QB, Might be more concerned with Payday and Celebrity status then he is with being a Franchise QB, Junior QB

Mallet - Criticism of him seems to be unclear, weather , his main problem is leadership or intelligence. Scouts seem to be all over the map on these two factors. I personally see a Matt Schuab clone where his only real weakness is a lack of mobility. Was able to improve his accuracy enough where he should seriously be considered. My main concern is he came out a year early which seems to work against QB's at the next level.

+ Size, Arm Strength, Experience in Pro System, Firery Personallity, Improved Accuracy
- Junior QB, Petrino QB, Wasn't accurate until this past year.

Locker

+ Mobility, Arm Strength, Pro System Experience with lots of play action and bootlegs, leadership, Smart, Senior QB
- Accuracy (never over 60% on the year), Injury concerns due to playing style, Recent Regression

Ponder

+Great Intangibles (graduated in something around 2.5 years. Also considered a great leader), Pro Style System, Very Accurate when healthy still 60%+ when not, Mobile, Senior QB
- Health Problems, Arm Strength only good enough, Lack of success at the collegiate level.


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Old 02-23-2011, 10:12 PM   #214
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Good breakdown Dirtbag, but I dont see anything there Im falling in love with at the 10th pick...still. I dont get with all our needs reaching for any of these guys at 10. With the second round pick, sure. No way at 10. Either move down in the first and grab one of these or wait til the second.
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Old 02-23-2011, 10:37 PM   #215
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

I'm looking for........Cam Tebow...
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Old 02-24-2011, 01:47 AM   #216
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Who cares if Cam wants to be a cultural Icon. Judge a man by his actions, not the puffs of air that escapes his orifice. I remember Deion Sanders use to say much worse coming out of college, and look how that turned out. I really hope that effects his draft status, I was looking forward to any and all negative stories about him in hopes that he falls to # 10.
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Old 02-24-2011, 04:02 AM   #217
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowbyte View Post
Who cares if Cam wants to be a cultural Icon. Judge a man by his actions, not the puffs of air that escapes his orifice. I remember Deion Sanders use to say much worse coming out of college, and look how that turned out. I really hope that effects his draft status, I was looking forward to any and all negative stories about him in hopes that he falls to # 10.
The Quarterback position is a completely different animal. Deion was just a corner, and while you can't just get by on raw athletic ability playing Corner or other positions, it still pales in comparison to the physical and mental requirements expected of a Quarterback. QB's at the very least need to have an idea of what all 22 players are doing. Protections, routes, defensive line stunts, linebacker blitzes and coverages, secondary protection schemes, audibles, even the damn play clock is the QB's responsibility. Corners need to know run or pass, "do I have safety help", and how do I cover my man/zone.

In conclusion if Newton isn't 100% committed to playing football, and more interested in being a celebrity with a nice pay check then he could easily become a bust. He already put his college career at risk asking for 6 figures from boosters. That is why the comment has become a huge red flag as it reveals possible ulterior motives.

His raw physical talent is going to take him only so far. If he doesn't learn how to read and beat coverages at the next level he'll be toast. Defenders won't be scared to chase him down when they realize that letting him throw isn't much of a risk.

Maybe myself and everyone else are making a big deal out of nothing and the comment is nothing but it still makes me worry. Most Rookie QB's are talking about learning NFL defenses and adjusting to the speed of the game. Newton on the other hand is talking about it took him one year to dominate the collegiate game.
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Old 02-24-2011, 04:27 AM   #218
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

---------------------------
On a slightly different subject, I have new peanut gallery notes on Locker and Gabbert.

In watching Locker recently there were a few more specific things that bothered me. For starters he looks to run an awful lot when things break down. Ideally you'd want a guy that would use that mobility to reposition himself and find someone downfield while picking up a first down or two with their feet. But very rarely am I seeing Locker look down the field for other options. In fact he rarely seems to look down field to begin with opting for mostly short passes (all the more reason to be worried over his subpar completion percentage). Had trouble noticing if he was looking for separate options on the other side of the field

Gabbert on the other hand surprised me. On the field he was the exact opposite of my concerns with Locker. While not as mobile Gabbert is certainly capable of moving about. And not only does he move around but when he can he takes a moment to reposition his feet. He's also not afraid to take shots downfield and is confident in his arm. Most impressive part of his game might have been his ability to look off coverage and find second and third options.

The Performance itself is not all to impressive. However while watching Gabbert it's easy to catch the little things he's incorporated into his game. Remember to look for readjusting after scrambles, willingness to take shots downfield, and the ability to look off defenders. Still can't get over the fact that his numbers, while respectable, are no where near Chase Daniel.


Locker on the other hand reminds me of a kid playing with a Mobile QB on all Madden. All to frequently he seems to zone in one guy and rarely looks downfield opting for throwing short to mid range passes when he's not scrambling for yards. Maybe his supporting cast was just that bad but Steve Sarkisian is a respected offensive mind so it's not like he was in some po dunk SEC 3 yards and a cloud of dust Wing T system.
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Old 02-24-2011, 10:10 AM   #219
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Disrergard.
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Old 02-24-2011, 03:45 PM   #220
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

2011 NFL Mock Draft: Complete 1st Round With Pick-By-Pick Analysis | Bleacher Report
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Old 02-24-2011, 03:48 PM   #221
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag359 View Post
---------------------------
On a slightly different subject, I have new peanut gallery notes on Locker and Gabbert.

In watching Locker recently there were a few more specific things that bothered me. For starters he looks to run an awful lot when things break down. Ideally you'd want a guy that would use that mobility to reposition himself and find someone downfield while picking up a first down or two with their feet. But very rarely am I seeing Locker look down the field for other options. In fact he rarely seems to look down field to begin with opting for mostly short passes (all the more reason to be worried over his subpar completion percentage). Had trouble noticing if he was looking for separate options on the other side of the field

Gabbert on the other hand surprised me. On the field he was the exact opposite of my concerns with Locker. While not as mobile Gabbert is certainly capable of moving about. And not only does he move around but when he can he takes a moment to reposition his feet. He's also not afraid to take shots downfield and is confident in his arm. Most impressive part of his game might have been his ability to look off coverage and find second and third options.

The Performance itself is not all to impressive. However while watching Gabbert it's easy to catch the little things he's incorporated into his game. Remember to look for readjusting after scrambles, willingness to take shots downfield, and the ability to look off defenders. Still can't get over the fact that his numbers, while respectable, are no where near Chase Daniel.


Locker on the other hand reminds me of a kid playing with a Mobile QB on all Madden. All to frequently he seems to zone in one guy and rarely looks downfield opting for throwing short to mid range passes when he's not scrambling for yards. Maybe his supporting cast was just that bad but Steve Sarkisian is a respected offensive mind so it's not like he was in some po dunk SEC 3 yards and a cloud of dust Wing T system.



Dude has all the tools and played in a Pro style offense, Yeah he scrambles to much but Shanny will fix that problem IMO. His accuracy isn't as bad as some think either. Is he Brees? No but he's not Jason Campbell either
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Old 02-24-2011, 04:00 PM   #222
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

I think that both Locker and Gabbert are good QB prospects.
I've watched several of both of there games and w/ a coaching buddy of mine have charted some of their games.
I've actuall charted Gabbert's game vs Illinois and although he was very productive I think disagree w/ assessment and think you choose the wrong games to prove your points.

BTW-Locker was outstanding in the Oregeon State game:
5 TDs 1 INT w/ 60 yds rushing in a 35-34 overtime win.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirtbag359 View Post
---------------------------
In watching Locker recently there were a few more specific things that bothered me. For starters he looks to run an awful lot when things break down. Ideally you'd want a guy that would use that mobility to reposition himself and find someone downfield while picking up a first down or two with their feet. But very rarely am I seeing Locker look down the field for other options......In fact he rarely seems to look down field to begin with opting for mostly short passes (all the more reason to be worried over his subpar completion percentage).**Had trouble noticing if he was looking for separate options on the other side of the field
If we're gonna attempt to talk specifics, which plays are you refering to?

Of the 2 QBs i thought Locker handled a crumbling pocket better then Gabbert.

In general I think that both through a mix of their preference and offensives systems greatly favor their 1st reads(which is common for college QBs)
and both offenses favor short routes as evidenced by the fact that both have sub 7.0 YPA.
Locker's offense by design is about 60/40 mix of 1 step or quick 3-step and get the ball out quickly from a pro-set and roll out, sprint out, dash outside the pocket stuff.
Gabberts is a shotgun spread with mainly half-field but some full field reads.
Imo Gabberts offense lends itself more easily to making multiple progression reads because there are more options per play.
**The graininess of the Oregon State game makes it harder to read Locker's helmet direction.


Quote:
In fact he rarely seems to look down field to begin with opting for mostly short passes (all the more reason to be worried over his subpar completion percentage).
Actually I think its the other way around its spread offenses lend themselves to a more a high comp% then pro-style offenses.

Quote:
Gabbert on the other hand surprised me. On the field he was the exact opposite of my concerns with Locker. While not as mobile Gabbert is certainly capable of moving about. And not only does he move around but when he can he takes a moment to reposition his feet. He's also not afraid to take shots downfield and is confident in his arm. Most impressive part of his game might have been his ability to look off coverage and find second and third options.
I didn't see this at all.(I'll post my passing chart and game assessment)

Quote:
Still can't get over the fact that his numbers, while respectable, are no where near Chase Daniel.
That's because you're ignoring the reasons that contribute make his numbers lesser then Chases; although part of the difference is WR talent.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Quote:
Originally Posted by darrelgreenie View Post
I've simplified my format.
KEY:

OT: (+/-)on time/in rhythm
TAR- (+/-) on target catchable ball (above the waist not above the shoulders within arm's length)
IS- (+/-) in stride

**Good plays/NFL ability
Sienna color negative plays

Any pertinent information will be metioned-

[video=youtube;Q5nGYHLeB2g]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5nGYHLeB2g[/video]

1) OT- TAR- probably a missed read
2) Screen OT+ TAR+ IS+
3) Scamble TAR-
4) Screen OT+ TAR+ IS+
5) 1st read covered looking leftside stayed w/ too long and didn't see the open slot slant Scramble
high throw OT- TAR- (a bit high) @48s

6) (R) sideline cover 2 beater fade route nice throw into small window OT+ TAR+ IS+ @ 1:06
7) Screen OT+ TAR+
8) Zone read keeper tried to cutback, not a natural runner
9) Zone read QB keeper shows willingness to run w/ toughness FUMBLE! 1:38s
10) Slot out (L) OT+ TAR+ a little shoulder level 2:04
11) Slot comeback (L) OT+ TAR+ tight window good throw 2:22
12) Missed flare out (R) --->scramble OT+ TAR- underthrown 2:27
13) Slot out OT+ TAR+
14) Hot route blitz beater OT+ TAR+ IS+ 3:06
15) Quick In OT+ TAR+
16) Slot out (handles bad snap) OT+ TAR+ a little high 3:27
17) batted ball
18) Quick pressure starts to scramble finds RB in flat OT+ TAR+ IS+ 3:59
19) TE hitch OT+ TAR+
20) Slot hitch OT+ TAR+
21) WR slant-dig OT+ TAR+ nice throw 4:36
22) batted ball
**23) Near slot (R) pump middle slot post OT+ TAR+ IS+ dropped great throw
24) Scrambled, held ball should have thrown it away
25) Slot slant OT+ TAR+ IS+ 5:30
26) Slot swing pass OT+ TAR+ IS+
27) Slot screen 5:25
28) Slot (L) comeback OT+ TAR+ a little high
29) Quick hitch (L) OT+ TAR+
30) Sprint (R) turns down quick slant to middle slot, throws back of the endzone OT+ TAR- 6:32
31) Swing (R) OT+ TAR+ IS+
**32) Looked like he had slot (R) open on slant instead scrambles keeps head up fires a strike on the run to the back of the endzone--started heating up after this TD
**33) Turned down slot out (L) resets throws across the field to far sideline comeback w/ a good strong throw OT+ TAR+ dropped
**34) Everyone looks covered scramble. finds TE corner another nice throw OT+ TAR+ IS+ 7:3
35) Skinny post/deep slant (R) OT+ TAR+ IS+ 8:00
36) Swing pass OT+ TAR+ IS+
37) Swing " "
38) PA zone read WR fly/go (R) w/ bodies around make deep sideline throw from the 55 to the 1 yard line OT+ TAR- (i thought it was mis-played/judged a good WR makes that grab
39) TE Slant (R) OT+ TAR+ a little behind 8:48
40) Near slot square in OT+ TAR+ IS+ 9:00
**41) Looks (R) scrambles (L) hits sideline comeback OT+ TAR+ IS+ nice throw 9:09
42) lot hitch (L) OT+ TAR+ a little high 9:22
43) QB draw picks up yards but not a natural runner
44) Fake WR screen middle slot fade OT+ TAR+ IS+ TD!!
45) Slot out (L) OT+ TAR+ IS+
46) RB screen (L) OT+ TAR- IS- underthrown short incomplete
**47) Deep comeback sideline nice throw OT+ TAR+ IS+ 10:22

**48) Looks (L) scrambles resets throws deep post (R) OT+ TAR+ a little high IS+ dropped 10:32
49) Swing
50) Had time scrambled around, found receiver in middle of field heaved it up -caught- but OT- TAR+ a little high 11:00
51) Missed/turned down near slot hitch (R) goes for middle slot go route OT- TAR- IS- 11:17
52) Wide slant hitch (L) OT+ TAR+
53) Scramble throw away
**54) Slot out very tight window OT+ TAR+ big hit forced drop 11:56
55) Pinkel's version of a kneel? Gabbert scrambles around then goes down
-
Quote:
Originally Posted by darrelgreenie-January-25th-2011 View Post
From the passing chart in post #63

Missed pass incomplete: 1,30,(38),46
Scramble/on the move incomplete: 3,5,7,12
Caught passes that were off target (keep in mind these are caught passes) 28, 42, 50
Drops/(receiver misplay/effort): 23,33,(38),48, 54
Throw away: 53
By my count that's 11 off targets pass, 3 that were still completed from a sample of 48 passes
**Even if you include the caught passes that were off target that would only make 16% of his pass attempts off target

my grade for the game:
Instincts+Intuition-2 (got off to a slow start and had some early happy feet)
Competitiveness-4 (came back from being down the entire gameplan was based on his right arm)
Arm Strength-5 (self evident)
Complete Inventory of passes-4
Quick delivery-4
Touch-3 (missed a few throws)
Read defense-2 (mainly half field read offense, but graded down for the happy feet)
Mobility+Avoidance-3 (made some good plays, but often scrambled needlessly)
Function while injured- N/A (?) may have been playing hurt?
Not easily rattled-3 (graded down for happy feet)
Spontaneous decision/play making-3 (nice play in the endzone helped bump him up to 3)
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Old 02-24-2011, 04:51 PM   #223
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Anyone of the QB's who are middle of the road or have dropped down to middle of the road (ie; Locker) then there is nothing but up side. QB's who were middle of the pack ( and I'm only counting like the top 5-7 like everyone else is doind) starting out and quite possibly will be the top QB this year (Newton) have a lot to lose. I remember everyone saying right after the bowl games that Locker was the top man and that teams had a lot to lose possibly drafting him, however Newton was flying under the weather and had a lot of upside. After the Senior Bowl the rolls reversed.

Whoever gets evaluated as the top prospect and possibly #2 and #3 could be drafted prior to the Skins at #10. Last night on the NFL network they were debating whether the Panthers would or should go after a QB.... half the announcers said they should the other said no go defense. Almost everyone is agreeing that the Bills will probably take a QB. Rumor is they are eyeing Newton. I'd presume him to be gone by the time the Skins pick. But the Bills are not the only team that might be looking for a QB either.... what about:

Bills- drastically need a QB.
Cinci- Palmer has requested to be traded.
Arizona- They have two mediocre QB's, could they look for someone better?
49ers- were not happy last yr at QB.
Titans- Will need a replacement for Young.
Skins-

I'm not saying they all will pick QB's, but I'd be supprised if a team doesn't take the top rated QB prior to the Skins pick. Maybe even the top two picks. I can see atleast Newton being gone(by the Bills) and Locker, Gabbert, and or Mallet. I'll agree most likely they all won't be gone. but I just find it funny how people are ..." hey we need to take Newton" or " hey we need to take Locker" when in reality we might not have a chance to get either unless we move up to get them which I'm against.

I'd rather (if at all possible) find a trade partner to trade back to get more picks (somewhere around the 20's) and take either Ponder in the second or Dalton. Pick up another second due to the trade and pick up either DL, OL, or WR if they are not making a run at FA WR's.

I'd also be very suprised if whoever we pick at QB was the starter next yr. McNabb couldn't pick up all of the offense and he's a Pro Bowl QB. More then likely Grossman starts while the Rookie learns the plays. Unless we keep McNabb and hope he learns more of the offense and decides to get his head out of his back side with his 2 min. clock management.
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Old 02-24-2011, 04:51 PM   #224
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

I have to also disagree with dirtbag's assessment of Gabbert's mobility and use of it. Watching that film, I didn't feel that he handles pressure well, but I feel the same about Locker and Newton.

I don't know if they learn that skillset once they get to the NFL, but from the little film that I've watched most times all 3 seem to tuck tail and run when they feel pressure.
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Old 02-24-2011, 05:05 PM   #225
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Re: ESPN Say's Newton To Enter Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by warriorzpath View Post
I have to also disagree with dirtbag's assessment of Gabbert's mobility and use of it. Watching that film, I didn't feel that he handles pressure well, but I feel the same about Locker and Newton.

I don't know if they learn that skillset once they get to the NFL, but from the little film that I've watched most times all 3 seem to tuck tail and run when they feel pressure.
I think it also depends on the scheme the team is running as to which QB would be best. The Skins really need a pocket passer, but one who has the ability to roll out or scramble if need be. The QB needs to have a strong accurate arm to get the ball down field to the receivers, but also be able to dump the ball off if nothing is available.

Newton and the QB from Virginia Tech strike me as QB's to be used on a team that utilizes the Wild Cat. Both didn't look comfortable in the pocket and didn't look to let plays develope before they took off on foot. Locker kinda had the same issues in regards to just taking off with the ball. Now some here will say thats why we need them cause our OL sucks and they will get the 1st down. I'm telling you the OL will be better this year and they won't need to run as much. I'd rather have a QB who is comfortable in the pocket and has pocket awareness. I've also heard Locker is not as accurate as the others and that most mechanics can be taught but accuracy is one the QB has to have.
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