A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL

gafinfan · 03-21-2011, 04:37 AM

I ran across this on another forum and thought those of you who are QB gurus might enjoy the reads. This guy claims a 70% success in naming those who will be Elite type QBs in the NFL

BTW he names R. Stanzi as his number one guy on the board, with C. Ponder as number two (if his Wonderlic holds up) for 2011.

Ok now for the real meat:

NFL Draft Picks 2011 - Projecting a College QB - Fantasy Football 2011

Fantasy Football Metrics - Free Stats, Projections, News, and Rankings for WR, TE, RB, QB, Kickers, and Defenses

NFL Draft 2011 - Ricky Stanzi Wonderlic Score - Fantasy Football 2011

Quote:

Great/good NFL QBs in years gone by (more than a decade ago) have scored very low on the Wonderlic -- Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb as some examples. My theory is (debatable) that back 10-20+ years ago the whole draft process was not as scrutinized; now it is a highly televised event. Everything, including the Wonderlic test results has gone from something "kinda" important 10-20+ years ago and something that could be blown off by many elite college QBs...current day, the Wonderlic test results can mean millions of dollars lost with a bad score. Prospective QBs now go to specialists to help improve Wonderlic scoring and take practice tests multiple times. Some may think the Wonderlic scoring is irrelevant, but College QBs with NFL dreams and NFL GMs do not, I can assure you.

Ponder and McElroy are my two favorites this year, with Yates as the dark horse in all of this. I would not touch any of the professed top runners (Newton, Locker, Mallett, or whoever)!

Having said that do any here really think you guys will go QB in round one with so many other needs and no FA? Remember without a CBA there are no player trades to be able to move up or down this year, YET.

freddyg12 · 03-21-2011, 11:30 AM

Thanks for posting Gafin,, this is really good! JC, JeMarcuss Russell & McNabb have similar ratings, but John Beck is up there!

I really appreciate his explanation of the wonderlic. He makes a good point about its history. It's analogous to saying that 40 years ago your SAT (or whatever test) score wasn't as big a factor in college admissions, but it is now, so much so that it is a primary 'weeding out' factor for most competitive schools. The wonderlic is the same, and players know that, unless they are really dumb.

Dirtbag59 · 03-21-2011, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilsowilso

Locker scored a 20 on the wonderlic. WTF.

That's pretty bad. I just don't know how he can overcome accuracy and a below average brain.

You just can't draft that guy at #10. No way.

You're right, we should trade up to 5 and draft him. Thank you for letting us see the errors of our ways. You're input has been invaluble

wisowilso: But that's not what I meant! What I was saying was that

Don't worry we agree. It's unsound to draft a player in the same slot as his jersey number. Better to take his jersey number and divide it by 2.

Mattyk · 03-21-2011, 01:36 PM

20 and over on the Wonderlic is considered acceptable for QBs.

freddyg12 · 03-21-2011, 02:04 PM

Regardless of Locker's wonderlic, he's got plenty of skeptics due to his accuracy/decision issues & this guy is one of them. He's pretty clear that Locker has been set up to be the biggest bust of this draft. He thinks that as the draft approaches scouts & execs will have cooled on the idea of Locker as a top qb & then he'll fall to the 3rd on draft day.

All statistical methods have flaws & can't give you everything, but this guy has developed a good model from what I read. He has Cam as the #2 qb this year pending his wonderlic. If his wonderlic is low, he'll fall to avg. in his ranking. Has Cam's score been unveiled anywhere?

Mattyk · 03-21-2011, 02:08 PM

Greg McElroy: 43, Blaine Gabbert: 42, Christian Ponder: 35, Ricky Stanzi: 30, Andy Dalton: 29, Ryan Mallett: 26, Cam Newton: 21, and Jake Locker: 20.

Your 2011 Wonderlic score wrapup | ProFootballTalk

juskins · 03-21-2011, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

20 and over on the Wonderlic is considered acceptable for QBs.

Link, Link AND a LINK PLEASE!

tryfuhl · 03-21-2011, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juskins

Link, Link AND a LINK PLEASE!

nfl draft history

Dirtbag59 · 03-21-2011, 02:40 PM

The guy from the Examiner said recently in a podcast that based on talking to the scouts and people around the league that the Redskins are going to find a way to get Jake Locker.

Mattyk · 03-21-2011, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juskins

Link, Link AND a LINK PLEASE!

see what I posted above

GhettoDogAllStars · 03-21-2011, 03:07 PM

Andy Dalton, please.

4 year starter
42-7 career W/L record
3 time bowl-game MVP

juskins · 03-21-2011, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

see what I posted above

Well, if that's an indication that his score is acceptable, then consider Jason Campbell scored a, I think, 24 (?).

So I would say no thanks! I think a score of 28 and above will prove a better student of the game.

juskins · 03-21-2011, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

The guy from the Examiner said recently in a podcast that based on talking to the scouts and people around the league that the Redskins are going to find a way to get Jake Locker.

I think Locker will play for the LA Angels. He signed a contract with them and might opt for MLB instead of the NFL if he is drafted too low.

freddyg12 · 03-22-2011, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Greg McElroy: 43, Blaine Gabbert: 42, Christian Ponder: 35, Ricky Stanzi: 30, Andy Dalton: 29, Ryan Mallett: 26, Cam Newton: 21, and Jake Locker: 20.

Your 2011 Wonderlic score wrapup | ProFootballTalk

Is that some serious distance between Locker & McElroy, or is the incremental difference not really that much?

One more strike for Locker, his stock continues to drop. I wonder if the guys that did well studied for it, while the other guys didn't as much? Newton & Locker both seem reasonably intelligent, enough so that they can learn an NFL offense w/no problem if they work at it. Which raises another question about work ethic.

Mattyk · 03-22-2011, 09:39 AM

McElroy is just a sharp dude, I think that's one of the higher scores of all time.

As for Locker I don't think this hurts him any. 20 is not a horrible score.

03-21-2011, 01:36 PM	#4
Mattyk ‎\m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 40 Posts: 73,184	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL 20 and over on the Wonderlic is considered acceptable for QBs. __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

03-21-2011, 02:04 PM	#5
freddyg12 Playmaker Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,540	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL Regardless of Locker's wonderlic, he's got plenty of skeptics due to his accuracy/decision issues & this guy is one of them. He's pretty clear that Locker has been set up to be the biggest bust of this draft. He thinks that as the draft approaches scouts & execs will have cooled on the idea of Locker as a top qb & then he'll fall to the 3rd on draft day. All statistical methods have flaws & can't give you everything, but this guy has developed a good model from what I read. He has Cam as the #2 qb this year pending his wonderlic. If his wonderlic is low, he'll fall to avg. in his ranking. Has Cam's score been unveiled anywhere?

03-21-2011, 02:08 PM	#6
Mattyk ‎\m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 40 Posts: 73,184	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL Greg McElroy: 43, Blaine Gabbert: 42, Christian Ponder: 35, Ricky Stanzi: 30, Andy Dalton: 29, Ryan Mallett: 26, Cam Newton: 21, and Jake Locker: 20. Your 2011 Wonderlic score wrapup \| ProFootballTalk __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

03-21-2011, 02:40 PM	#9
Dirtbag59 Naega jeil jal naga Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Atlanta, Georgia From: Silver Spring, Maryland Age: 27 Posts: 13,978	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL The guy from the Examiner said recently in a podcast that based on talking to the scouts and people around the league that the Redskins are going to find a way to get Jake Locker. __________________ Flacco is 1337 Fanclub President

03-21-2011, 03:07 PM	#11
GhettoDogAllStars Playmaker Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Denver Age: 31 Posts: 2,759	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL Andy Dalton, please. 4 year starter 42-7 career W/L record 3 time bowl-game MVP __________________ To succeed in the world it is not enough to be stupid, you must also be well-mannered.

03-21-2011, 11:30 AM	#2
freddyg12 Playmaker Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,540	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL Thanks for posting Gafin,, this is really good! JC, JeMarcuss Russell & McNabb have similar ratings, but John Beck is up there! I really appreciate his explanation of the wonderlic. He makes a good point about its history. It's analogous to saying that 40 years ago your SAT (or whatever test) score wasn't as big a factor in college admissions, but it is now, so much so that it is a primary 'weeding out' factor for most competitive schools. The wonderlic is the same, and players know that, unless they are really dumb.

03-22-2011, 09:39 AM	#15
Mattyk ‎\m/ Join Date: Feb 2004 Age: 40 Posts: 73,184	Re: A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL McElroy is just a sharp dude, I think that's one of the higher scores of all time. As for Locker I don't think this hurts him any. 20 is not a horrible score. __________________ Support The Warpath! \| Warpath Shop

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A new way of Projecting College QB's to the NFL

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