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Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

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Old 01-06-2012, 06:35 PM   #1
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Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

It’s official: Brock Osweiler declares for the NFL | CollegeFootballTalk

This was such a surprising decision that I totally skipped Osweiler when I was doing my player film analysis about a month ago. So I spent all of last night and this morning watching a majority of his 2011 season.

Here's a brief synopsis: it's going to be tough to put a draft grade on him because players similar to him almost never come out as 21 year old juniors. They almost always stay. But with Dennis Erickson getting fired and his OC (Noel Mazzone) leaving the program, he was rumored to be considering a transfer and I have no doubt that the decisions of Matt Barkley and Landry Jones to stay in school probably drove Osweiler to the NFL.

After watching probably about 50% of his snaps from last season, I really think he is the most physically gifted pocket player in this draft, if not in years. He's 6'8", a very good athlete, doesn't have happy feet, is tough, will take a hit, can make every throw, and is deadly accurate with strong fundamentals. Put simply, players like Osweiler never, ever make it out of the first round. They are too talented.

Here's the issue: mentally, there are probably five quarterbacks in the Pac-12 alone who see a higher percentage of the field: Foles, Barkley, Price, and Luck at the very least. And it's not like he's been rotting on the bench this whole time: he started games as a true 18 year old freshman and as a sophomore as well. Also, Mazzone runs a true spread offense. Not the pro-style spread that at team like Texas, Oklahoma, or Notre Dame runs these days. But pretty much the same offense that RG3 is running at Baylor.

Physically, Osweiler is very polished and consistent with his footwork, and they do some difficult pocket movements at ASU that require precision and timing. But the speed of the college game still appears rather fast for him, to the point where he's rarely reading more than two receivers in a single play. I have no doubt that he could start for the Redskins as a rookie in a stripped down version of the Kyle Shanahan system, but like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, he is still many, many years away from being able to handle full quarterback responsibility in an NFL offense.

As far as his college coaching, Mazzone is really good: he did work with Philip Rivers at NC State, and later taught quarterback fundamentals to Tim Tebow prior to draft day 2010. I can understand why he didn't want to play for Todd Graham after watching this wide open offense. I also went back and saw some high school highlights, and he was really fundamentally sound even back then.

He's the kind of player I could see the Shanahan's falling in love with, but is also perhaps the least pro ready player at the top of this class.

He's still really young: he'll be 21 years old in Week 1. I think he's unquestionably more talented as a pocket passer than Ryan Tannehill, and a bit more talented than Nick Foles (though a much better athlete than Foles). It's just the mental part of the game that's causing him trouble at this point: he was sensational against USC, but struggled mightily against Illinois and Boise State, the three most "pro style" defenses that he saw last season.
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Old 01-06-2012, 06:41 PM   #2
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

He is about three inches taller than I'm comfortable with. I don't think we get him. Just my opinion though.
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Old 01-06-2012, 07:19 PM   #3
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

The only other 6'8" QB that I know that played in the NFL was Mark Mcqwire's brother Dan who played at Iowa and SD State, he had a great college career and was a bust for the Seahawks. Jake Plummer also went to ASU, maybe Shanahan will like that. Seriously, I don't know anything about Osweiler.

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Old 01-06-2012, 07:32 PM   #4
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Maybe this isn't the right way to go about it, but I don't think of 6'8" as "four inches taller than 6'4"" I think of it as part of a player who looks physically imposing to tackle.

Passing wise, he reminds me a lot of Cam Newton. Newton proved to be far more advanced than anyone (including myself) expected.
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Old 01-07-2012, 01:17 AM   #5
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Because of his height he gets compared to the 6'6"ish Ryan Mallett. But that's not fair because Brock is a much better athlete.

Still, I don't know that he's the right fit for us.

Still, waiting to see if Tyler Wilson declares. I think he'd be a great fit
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Old 01-07-2012, 01:53 AM   #6
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
Because of his height he gets compared to the 6'6"ish Ryan Mallett. But that's not fair because Brock is a much better athlete.

Still, I don't know that he's the right fit for us.

Still, waiting to see if Tyler Wilson declares. I think he'd be a great fit
id be pretty shocked if wilson declared, but i agree hed be a good fit
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Old 01-07-2012, 05:25 AM   #7
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Living in Los Angeles Ca I saw many ASU games this season and I was impressed with Osweiler. He is accurate and has mobility for a 6-8 player. He had a basketball scholarship from Gonzaga which he turned down to play QB. I throws a nice ball and stands tall in the pocket. I would take a long look at him if we can not get RGIII in the 1st rd.
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Old 01-07-2012, 08:39 AM   #8
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

I think his size is a huge advantage as he should be harder to tackle and he can see over the line which the current starter struggles to do. Plus his accurate pocket passing style lends itself to success in the NFL much more than RGIII's run and throw semi-accurate passes style does.

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Old 01-07-2012, 08:51 AM   #9
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

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Old 01-07-2012, 10:00 AM   #10
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

He sounds like an interesting prospect, any idea what round he projects to right now?
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:03 AM   #11
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Seems like there are a lot of QB prospects that are getting discussed around here as if they are extremely well-regarded. Does anybody know how many QBs are coming out that people like McShay, Mayock, Kiper, etc. would assign a first round grade to?

I hear Tannehill, Foles, this Osweiler guy, several others. Can you draftniks help a brother out and explain where each guy is slotted by the experts? It kind of feels like there are 10 first round QBs this year, a little perspective would be valuable.
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:06 AM   #12
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:09 AM   #13
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Definitely interesting. He's huge and really athletic with a big arm, and like Tripp pointed out, still very young. It will be interesting to see how his pre-draft workouts play out. He was off just about everyone's radar for this year until a few days ago.
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:24 PM   #14
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmootSmack View Post
Because of his height he gets compared to the 6'6"ish Ryan Mallett. But that's not fair because Brock is a much better athlete.

Still, I don't know that he's the right fit for us.

Still, waiting to see if Tyler Wilson declares. I think he'd be a great fit
Wilson would be a good fit with the way he drives the football down the field. I guess beyond how well he would work in this offense though, I'm just not overly blown away by Wilson. He seems to lack a lot of the abilities that made Ryan Mallett a special player in that system.
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Old 01-07-2012, 11:32 PM   #15
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Re: Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
Seems like there are a lot of QB prospects that are getting discussed around here as if they are extremely well-regarded. Does anybody know how many QBs are coming out that people like McShay, Mayock, Kiper, etc. would assign a first round grade to?

I hear Tannehill, Foles, this Osweiler guy, several others. Can you draftniks help a brother out and explain where each guy is slotted by the experts? It kind of feels like there are 10 first round QBs this year, a little perspective would be valuable.
Luck, Griffin, Tannehill won't get out of the first round. I just don't think there's any way that Osweiler will either. That's a GTripp opinion right now, as he's really only a second or third round value as a passer coming out. But so was Cam Newton.

Foles could end up being the third guy off the board or the fifth guy off the board.

The best value in this draft (outside of Kellen Moore, who just seems like he's going to get horribly undervalued because you can't look at him and think "first round quarterback") will end up being Cousins because 1) he has first round ability and profiles favorably to one or two of the guys I listed above, and 2) he's just going to get buried into the third round (if not later) by the remarkable depth of this draft.

Basically, you're looking at two guys going in the top five or six picks (or three if the Redskins reach), and another two or three going before the end of the first round. Foles isn't going to make it past pick 40. So that's five guys who will be gone by the time the Redskins are slated to pick in round 2.

And IMO, two other guys with first round quarterback abilities who are going to get driven down the board because of highly superficial concerns about their ability to hold up in the pros as starters. And, well, because supply exceeds demand so that someone is going to get driven down.
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