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What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

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Old 02-29-2012, 03:24 AM   #1
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What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Not as much as you'd think.

What is the Rams’ Second Overall Pick Really Worth? Not Nearly as Much as the Rams Want | The Big Lead

The premise of the article is essentially that you can't tell how Robert Griffin will compare to other second overall picks in terms of career value. Even if a bunch of teams really like him.

But you can determine how valuable the average second overall pick is and compare that to every other pick in the draft.
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Old 02-29-2012, 03:39 AM   #2
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Also, even though the article concludes that the 39th overall pick is something the Rams should get for the 2nd pick, I'm going to point out that the 2013 first rounder is basically equally valuable (right now) to the 39th overall pick.

So trading the first and second round picks isn't different (in terms of trade value) than trading next year's first and this year's first.

What it's saying is that there's still a bit of a gap between what the Rams are asking for (two firsts, a third, and a fifth) and what their asset is actually worth (two firsts and a sixth). It's really not a huge difference, but it's a meaningful one. The Redskins were able to add Leonard Hankerson and trade for the last two years of Adam Carriker's contract for the difference in what St. Louis is asking for vs. what it's worth.

Though I have to imagine if you love RG3 enough, you'd probably argue that the difference is trivial. When you're actually running an NFL team though, every small advantage counts. And if it doesn't, pretend like it does anyway.
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Old 02-29-2012, 08:18 AM   #3
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

gp GT

The media likes to blur the distinction between moving up X number of spots vs. moving up X number of spots to acquire the 1st over all.

I don't think the Chargers-Giants trade is the actual bench mark because they traded up to the 1st overall spot.
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Old 02-29-2012, 08:25 AM   #4
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

i like RG3 so much, and am so sick of mediocre QB play, that i trade this years and next years first. along with next years second for him. im not trading any players. when you lose a player, you have to fill that empty spot somehow. and the one thing that shanahan has done is make the redskins younger
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Old 02-29-2012, 11:45 AM   #5
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

IMO 2012 1st & 3rd, 2013 1st & 4th.
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Old 02-29-2012, 11:56 AM   #6
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

It's not what the 2nd pick is worth. It's more a question of how much would you pay for a talent like RGIII at the QB position. Argueably with a legit QB last year we could have taken the east and got into the playoffs.

I am hoping that the Redskins pay the price- what ever it takes to get their guy. I think its time to invest in a blue chip pospect at the QB position to groom into their system. Our version of a McNabb or Peyton that can last in the role for 10+ years. No more settling for second rate.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:29 PM   #7
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

I love this. It's nice to see team over pay, but in reality.... the chart is just a guide and even then I think if there is a valuable player or someone several teams want it then becomes an auction. Basically put it's about supply and demand. What will the market allow. Which is another reason I'm not for trading up, we make this trade and then the presedence has been set for what it will take to trade up and then it becomes the source to look at as a guide.

I personally think it's too much. If RGIII played in a pro system, had his mechanics somewhat down, had a good throwing motion, and only needed to work on his reading defenses then I might look at it differently, but thats not the case. RGIII might be a player with a ton of talent but the coaching staff will have a ton to work on prior to the season and I just don't think it's worth it for a player who's not a complete package. He's better then the rest left thats all.

No one here would pay a Corvettes price for a Camaro that needs some engine work, needs new tires, needs its steering adjusted, and needs new headlights.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:45 PM   #8
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Daniel Snyder... that is what I would trade
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:50 PM   #9
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by CultBrennan59 View Post
I'm telling you all the final trade will probably be

2012 1st
2012 2nd
2012 4th
2013 1st
2013 3rd

It's going to be a lot. Unlike the Manning for Rivers trade, there was only 1 team interested, the Giants. This year we have at least 3, Us, Cleveland, and Miami. = Price goes up.
I would give that up for Luck and no one else.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:51 PM   #10
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

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Originally Posted by diehardskin2982 View Post
It's not what the 2nd pick is worth. It's more a question of how much would you pay for a talent like RGIII at the QB position. Argueably with a legit QB last year we could have taken the east and got into the playoffs.

I am hoping that the Redskins pay the price- what ever it takes to get their guy. I think its time to invest in a blue chip pospect at the QB position to groom into their system. Our version of a McNabb or Peyton that can last in the role for 10+ years. No more settling for second rate.
This...Exactly this.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:57 PM   #11
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

The problem with the author's argument is that he's completely wrong. The Rams second overall pick is only worth what he calls the true asset value, aka intrinsic value, if the Rams use the pick. But if traded (sold), the second overall pick is worth exactly what another team is willing to pay for it. The best way to figure out a trading price is to look at recent trades under similar circumstances, just like MIke McCoy once did.

The things working for the Rams is that the second round pick will be a QB, which is the most demanded position. They also got the new CBA helping them out with the rookie wage scale making 1st round picks more affordable.

The things working against the Rams is that they already have a supposed franchise QB on their roster, and it seems there are less teams then usual in dire need for a franchise QB. Clevland has Colt McCoy, Miami can have Matt Flynn, and the Chiefs have Cassel and Orton. Unfortunately the Redskins probably have the greatest need out of everyone in the draft. But as backup options we will all have some decent FA and cheap trade possibilities, like Henne or Manning, plus options that are contingent on who lands RGIII, like McCoy if the Browns get trade up. And then of course there are a couple other QBs not named Luck or Griffen in the draft.

At this point i think everyone is just waiting to see what Miami does with Matt Flynn. If they sign Flynn, Cleveland and Washington remain as the only 2 teams in the top 10 that would offer anything reasonable to the Rams for RGIII. I think the Browns have made a major turnaround in their franchise and i just cant see them paying very much to move up 2 spots to get RGIII. The Rams may be cool with trading outside of the top 10 but the new CBA will start to work against them at that point; never has it been so cheap to sign a top 10 pick.

Its the Rams job to get as much as possible and its everyone elses job to pay as little as possible. It should be interesting as to what happens, but i just cant see anyone completely overpaying. Thank goodness Vinny is gone.
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Old 02-29-2012, 01:02 PM   #12
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

SBXVII, you just hate RGIII don't you? The way you just described him you would think he's John Beck.
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Old 02-29-2012, 01:24 PM   #13
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689 View Post
SBXVII, you just hate RGIII don't you? The way you just described him you would think he's John Beck.
Yea right...RG3 is apparently a beat up old Camaro. I think that would make Beck an old bike with square tires...
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Old 02-29-2012, 01:37 PM   #14
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Besides RGIII's throwing motion (which honestly isn't that bad) his mechanics are pretty solid.
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Old 02-29-2012, 01:40 PM   #15
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Re: What is the 2nd overall pick worth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreekSkin View Post
Besides RGIII's throwing motion (which honestly isn't that bad) his mechanics are pretty solid.
Joey Sunshine Theismann had a throwing motion not unlike Griffin's IMO.
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