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Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Old 05-12-2012, 05:06 PM   #316
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
Very, if you know what you are doing and can use them responsibly.

So to you, they're basically useless.
So stats are basically useless unless you are responsible or skillful? So if you're not... then what they are useless?

Ok then in the case of RGIII and Kolb, they may be useful - used to support one's opinion or projection. And in my case, of Elway/Campbell - it's just useless.

OKAY.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:08 PM   #317
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

Numbers don't lie, but the opinions that some of the stats seem to back-up - are not always the truth.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:09 PM   #318
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Interesting article SS, I wanted to ask College FB fans about one statement in it though:



Do those numbers really seem eerily similar? a 5% difference in completions, in a college season seems different, in fact each stat seems to be significantly better and in Griffins favor. But maybe the difference in opponents makes up for that? Just wanted to get some feel from the college afficianados on the Warpath.

edit: I was curious about rushing as well, which the author left off, in their senior years, Kolb had a 1.4 yd rushing avg, and Griffin had a 3.9yd rushing avg. if anyone else cared.
5% college completion is a lot, although about 2ish percent of the difference is basically accounted for in the differences in era between Kolb's college career (middle of the last decade) and the last four years when Griffin was at Baylor.

I would point out that we still really don't know what Kolb is in the pro game because he had to wait so long to play consistently that we still haven't really got to start a full season yet. A good amount of that is Kolb's fault for being hurt each of the last two years and not doing anything to define himself as a quarterback.

There has not been a huge difference between Kevin Kolb and Mark Sanchez as a pro thus far in performance, but Sanchez has managed to play consistently and Kolb hasn't.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:11 PM   #319
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Originally Posted by warriorzpath View Post
Numbers don't lie, but the opinions that some of the stats seem to back-up - are not the truth.
That's basically correct, but the opinions you are referring to would be wrong whether or not stats were used to defend them.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:12 PM   #320
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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That's basically correct, but the opinions you are referring to would be wrong whether or not stats were used to defend them.

so what about the elway/campbell completion% stats? how telling are they of the truth?
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:20 PM   #321
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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so what about the elway/campbell completion% stats? how telling are they of the truth?
Well, first of all (and most importantly), no one is making Elway/Campbell quarterback comparisons besides you. So there's that.

There are numbers that will tell you plenty about John Elway's career if you're interested in learning more about it. Stats tell us that Elway doesn't compare great to Joe Montana, Dan Marino, or Steve Young. He had kind of a fascinating statistical career for a guy who is regarded as an all time great. There's plenty to be learned about Elway with stats. The most important takeaway for you is that there was nothing wrong with a 56% completion percentage in 1987.

Comparing his completion numbers to Campbell's is an awful misapplication, unless the argument is something like "look, even a mid-tier QB from the modern game was more productive than John Elway 25 years ago!" It's an interesting concept, but one that obviously sells Elway short. You want to avoid grading retroactively if possible. That's not what rate stats were intended for.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:31 PM   #322
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

I firmly believe if you stuck young (25 year old, for sake of argument) John Elway on the field in the modern passing environment, didn't let him go to school or come up through the development ranks with modern coaching, and made him play 1970-80's style football against modern pass defenses, he'd probably get benched a couple weeks into the season for a veteran like Matt Hasselbeck or something.

But you could say that about a lot of the all-time greats. The game is played entirely differently now.

I think it's important to keep greatness in context. Rex Grossman faces far more challenges as quarterback of the Redskins than Sammy Baugh did and handles them probably a lot better than Baugh would have. But Grossman also had way more access to coaching and resources coming up through the ranks as a kid. Baugh pretty much invented the pass as a weapon for attacking defenses. Big difference. Grossman wouldn't have resources to become a polished pro quarterback if it wasn't for all-time greats like Baugh who came before him. Without our predecessors, life would be one big experiment of trial and error. Emphasis on error.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:38 PM   #323
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Well, first of all (and most importantly), no one is making Elway/Campbell quarterback comparisons besides you. So there's that.

There are numbers that will tell you plenty about John Elway's career if you're interested in learning more about it. Stats tell us that Elway doesn't compare great to Joe Montana, Dan Marino, or Steve Young. He had kind of a fascinating statistical career for a guy who is regarded as an all time great. There's plenty to be learned about Elway with stats. The most important takeaway for you is that there was nothing wrong with a 56% completion percentage in 1987.

Comparing his completion numbers to Campbell's is an awful misapplication, unless the argument is something like "look, even a mid-tier QB from the modern game was more productive than John Elway 25 years ago!" It's an interesting concept, but one that obviously sells Elway short. You want to avoid grading retroactively if possible. That's not what rate stats were intended for.
What my point is - you can't take stats out of context and use it in place of playing ability. Every qb's situation is different. And in the case of Elway's (and also, Campbell's case), you have to throw the completion% stat out of window. So when someone is supporting an opinion and uses a stat like that - to me - it's the lazy way to determine a qb's potential and ability -- in place of analyzing through watching and it's just plain B.S.

But it's just my opinion and I have the stats to (dis)prove it. haha.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:46 PM   #324
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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What my point is - you can't take stats out of context and use it in place of playing ability. Every qb's situation is different. And in the case of Elway's (and also, Campbell's case), you have to throw the completion% stat out of window. So when someone is supporting an opinion and uses a stat like that - to me - it's the lazy way to determine a qb's potential and ability -- in place of analyzing through watching and it's just plain B.S.
When you take statistics out of context, you've made them useless. Which is why I said if you don't know how to use them, they aren't useful. It has absolutely nothing to do with your ability to judge talent from watching a guy play. It is not an either or. They are two different evaluation skills. They are actually both at their most predictive when they are unrelated to each other.

Most fans don't know how to use statistics, and they don't know how to evaluate from watching. But I think a much higher percentage of fans overestimate their ability to evaluate by watching. Hardly anyone overvalues their ability to read statistics meaningfully.

And the truth is if you watch a team 16 games per year you will hear enough football jargon on broadcasts and in the papers to have some concept of who is good and who is bad, even if you have absolutely no football background. So even someone who never has seen a football game in their lives, if they watched every Redskins game between now and 2013, they would be able to tell you that Brian Orakpo is really good, and Jammal Brown is not.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:47 PM   #325
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

Just to give you comparison qbs from their respective playing eras.
Steve Young: 64.3%
Aaron Rodgers: 65.4%
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:51 PM   #326
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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When you take statistics out of context, you've made them useless. Which is why I said if you don't know how to use them, they aren't useful. It has absolutely nothing to do with your ability to judge talent from watching a guy play. It is not an either or. They are two different evaluation skills. They are actually both at their most predictive when they are unrelated to each other.

Most fans don't know how to use statistics, and they don't know how to evaluate from watching. But I think a much higher percentage of fans overestimate their ability to evaluate by watching. Hardly anyone overvalues their ability to read statistics meaningfully.

And the truth is if you watch a team 16 games per year you will hear enough football jargon on broadcasts and in the papers to have some concept of who is good and who is bad, even if you have absolutely no football background. So even someone who never has seen a football game in their lives, if they watched every Redskins game between now and 2013, they would be able to tell you that Brian Orakpo is really good, and Jammal Brown is not.

Exactly, but even in the Elway/Campbell case, completion% rate is completely useless. So in the case of Kolb and RGIII, they can be completely useless or completely accurate, but it just depends on how RGIII performs. And not because what the stats are. It's the other way around. And that's what the misconception is to me.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:51 PM   #327
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Originally Posted by warriorzpath View Post
What my point is - you can't take stats out of context and use it in place of playing ability. Every qb's situation is different. And in the case of Elway's (and also, Campbell's case), you have to throw the completion% stat out of window. So when someone is supporting an opinion and uses a stat like that - to me - it's the lazy way to determine a qb's potential and ability -- in place of analyzing through watching and it's just plain B.S.

But it's just my opinion and I have the stats to (dis)prove it. haha.
Those who misuse stats are usually un-versed dumbasses who can't wrap their heads around certain concepts in statistics(the subject of statistics is not the same as "stats" on nfl.com, which are compilations of data which can be analyzed by statistical measures).

Those who reject the these dumbasses' conclusions and inferences...however reject them in an equally stupid manner, blindly eschewing the use of stats(or as I prefer to call them, data) altogether.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:51 PM   #328
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Originally Posted by warriorzpath View Post
Just to give you comparison qbs from their respective playing eras.
Steve Young: 64.3%
Aaron Rodgers: 65.4%
If you're trying to say the average completion percentage isn't higher in 2011 than it was in 1987 or 1994 or whenever...you're wrong. It's about four to four and a half percent higher on average.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:56 PM   #329
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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If you're trying to say the average completion percentage isn't higher in 2011 than it was in 1987 or 1994 or whenever...you're wrong. It's about four to four and a half percent higher on average.
Even with that difference, the comparison is even more telling. Because when you adjust accordingly with respective eras, their completion% is about even. 56% to 60% for Elway. So like I was saying, you can try to play with the stats with however you want, but sometimes it's just plain bs. So how do you determine when they are complete bs without just plain simple watching them? And even then, it's the eye of the beholder thing in some cases.
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Old 05-12-2012, 05:59 PM   #330
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Re: Kirk Cousins pick 4.7

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Exactly, but even in the Elway/Campbell case, completion% rate is completely useless. So in the case of Kolb and RGIII, they can be completely useless or completely accurate, but it just depends on how RGIII performs. And not because what the stats are. It's the other way around. And that's what the misconception is to me.
What you've missed the whole time is that it's not the completion percentage rate that's useless in Elway and Campbell's case. It's that the comparison is being made at all with no concept of an era regression on their statistics.

Not that this is a widespread problem in this thread, because you were the only one to make the comparison. The takeaway is not that completion percentage is useless in this case. The takeaway is that irresponsibly comparing players on any grounds is useless.
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