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Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

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Old 05-01-2012, 11:34 AM   #1
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Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Just for some perspective ...

1(13) -- Brian Orakpo
3(80) -- Kevin Barnes
5(158) -- Cody Glenn
6(186) -- Robert Henson
7(243) -- Marko Mitchell
7(221) -- Eddie Williams

Orakpo - Looking at the picks, obviously Orakpo was solid pick. At the same time, other LB's chosen after him include Cushing at 15 and Mathews at 26. Of the three, although I like Orakpo a lot, I think the better pick would have been Mathews. At the same time, the DE's chosen above him and behind him have not gotten Rak's sack numbers. T. Jackson [1(3) by KC], Maybin [1(11) Buffalo], Everette Brown [1(32) Pitt]. Rak's got 28.5 sacks, Mathews 29.5 - no one else is in double digits.

Given that we were drafting a DE at the time, the Rak pick was the best we could have done from the class. Neither the DE or LB class appear to have produced a late round sleeper either. In addition, while many good players were chosen at other positions later in the first round, none were "Holy Crap how did everyone miss that" good. [H. Nicks, Cushing, Maclin, Oher].

Taking it all into consideration - Orakpo was an A+ pick with an non-top 10 selection. Cudos to Vinny on this one (Yes, I just threw up a little in my mouth).

Barnes - meh ... passed on Ladarius Webb [3(88), Balt.] to pick him which looks to have been a mistake. At the same time, last year was the first that Webb was a full time starter. He did get extended but not sure if that was by choice or default in Baltimore. Here are the other DB's from the 3rd round:

3(66) STL - Bradley Fletcher
3(73) JAX - Derek Cox
3(80) WAS - Kevin Barnes
3 (86) MIN - Asher Allen
3 (88) BAL - Lardarius Webb
3 (90) ATL - Christopher Owens
3 (92) IND - Jerraud Powers
3 (94) TEN - Ryan Mouton
3 (95) ARI - Rashad Johnson
3 (96) PIT - Keenan Lewis

Only Fletcher, Cox and Webb have started more than 12 games and none of them more than 15. At the same time, all but Fletcher (27 games), Mouton (23 games) have fewer games than Barnes (28) [Lewis had 29 and all the rest 35 or more with Owens (46) and Webb (44) topping the list]. The class in later rounds yeilded some guys with more games and starts but, again, no real standouts. The big hit in the round, chosen at 3(85), was Mike Wallace - he of the first round tender.

So in a lackluster class of DB's we got one that seems to have lacked more luster than some of the others. Even though he was thought to be a bit of steal b/c he was coming off an injury - it appears Barnes was a swing and a miss. I give it a "D" b/c he has not been a complete washout - we have gotten smoe games out of him.

Glenn -- Of the 36 picks, positionally (LB), no one stands out in the round. Further, Glenn gave us two years and 19 games (with 2 starts) as opposed 19 guys who only made it one year or less (14 appeared to washout in camp). 14 guys from the round have played 12 or more games and were on a roster at the end of the 2011. Notables include Javon Ringer (RB, Tenn) and Chris Clemons (a now UFA safety from Cinci). Given that a lot of teams got nothing from their picks this round, I give the Glenn pick a C-.

Henson -- Again, 36 picks in teh round. Of them, 19 were on NFL rosters at the end of 2011. Including such shining stars as Curtis Painter (Colts at 201) and Brandon Gibson (Philly at 194). Gibson seems to be the find of the round with 132 receptions - BUT he did that with St. Louis not the team that drafted him. Honorable mention goes to James McCourty (Tenn. at 203) with 12 starts, 42 games, 137 tackles and a pick.

Given the number of current players that came out of this round and the fact that Henson only made it through 2009, I give this a "D".

Mitchell, Williams - 19 of 56 picks in the round were on a roster at the end of 2011. If we were looking for WR's, Julien Edelman and S. Strouther were available when we picked Williams (both gone when we picked Mitchell). If we were looking for RB's R. Jennings was available at the end of the round and appears to be the class of the 7th round. Williams was one of only 16 guys who didn't even make the roster. Mitchell gave us a year. There were multiple guys with 40+ games chosen in the round. Given the number of "keepers" in this round, plus the fact that we had 2 picks, I give us an F.

So, minus the Orakpo pick, Vinny's final draft was, at best, a C- but I think it really was a pretty solid D. Orakpo saves the draft, however, and pulls it up to the B-/C+ range given the Rak's production versus the production of those chosen around him and the DE/OLB class in general. There were lots of ways to go with the first pick that could have failed.

So, there it is. Three years later ... 6 picks, one borderline pro bowler, one maybe make the team as a nickel corner DB and 3 out of the NFL. <blechh>

All info obtained from: 2009 NFL Draft Listing - Pro-Football-Reference.com
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:37 AM   #2
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

I don't think you need to go in depth and try to break it down..

We have one player from this draft who doesn't have a negative impact. Fortunately it was out first round pick.
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:38 AM   #3
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

I think it will be more interesting to review our 2010 draft next year since that's the first of the current regime
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:41 AM   #4
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

I thought that was an interesting breakdown. Like SS said, the 2010 3 year grades will be interesting to see.
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:42 AM   #5
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Nice work Joe.

I was going to suggest we go back and look at 09 since it is 3 years now.
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:42 AM   #6
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

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I think it will be more interesting to review our 2010 draft next year since that's the first of the current regime
Yeah that be cool!

Just don't ever review the 2008 draft, that has to be one of our worst draft ever.
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:49 AM   #7
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

that was a shitty draft by a shitty FO, Danny and Zorn.
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Old 05-01-2012, 11:59 AM   #8
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Part of the reason I did this was to see just what should be expected, based on the percentages, from a pick from a certain round - how many make it out of camp, how many last more than a year, etc.

In rounds one and two, only 2 players are not still in the NFL.
In round 3, 6 guys did not make it out of camp and another 2 aren't in the league.
In the 4th, 5 didn't make it out of camp and 4 aren't in the league.
in the 5th, 16 didn't make itou of camp and 7 more aren't in the league.
in the 6th, 7 didn't make itou of camp and 10 more aren't in the league.
in the 7th, 15 didn't make itou of camp and 4 more aren't in the league.

So (based on 2009), from the 4th round on, you have about a 60% fail rate for picks by year 3.

Sounds about right. Also, looking at the various starts/games listed, rounds 4-7 seem pretty similar - i.e. no appreciably higher games from round 4 versus round 5.
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Old 05-01-2012, 12:35 PM   #9
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Excellent thread Joe! Since you can't really grade a draft for three years, you did a good job of picking up the ball and running with it.

As for 2009:
- It is hard to hate the Rak pick, even with Matthews out there.
- Barnes sadly has struggled but so have several other DB picks from the same round. Maybe we should have picked a different position in the third.
- as for the other picks...sheesh. You hope that 50% of your picks work out but we did not come close to that.

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Old 05-01-2012, 12:39 PM   #10
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Typical Vinny draft, short on picks and all the bang comes from the top.
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Old 05-01-2012, 12:40 PM   #11
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

Orakpo has been the only one worth a damn so far. I think he'd be better off as a DE in a 4-3, but nobody foresaw the 3-4 coming. With that said he's still a valuable contributor in a 3-4. Nobody else in that class worth mentioning, and that's not suprising. Anybody want to do this with the 2008 draft? I'd shudder to think what our grade in that draft is now. Fred Davis and Reed Doughty are the only ones left from that one, and half the fans here hate Doughty.
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Old 05-01-2012, 01:44 PM   #12
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

If Orakpo was on GB, he would lead the league in sacks and could be in the running for defensive player of the year.
Matthews is good but benefits greatly from playing on a much better defense.
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Old 05-01-2012, 02:08 PM   #13
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

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Orakpo has been the only one worth a damn so far. I think he'd be better off as a DE in a 4-3, but nobody foresaw the 3-4 coming. With that said he's still a valuable contributor in a 3-4. Nobody else in that class worth mentioning, and that's not suprising. Anybody want to do this with the 2008 draft? I'd shudder to think what our grade in that draft is now. Fred Davis and Reed Doughty are the only ones left from that one, and half the fans here hate Doughty.
I beleive Reed came in the 2006 draft.
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Old 05-01-2012, 02:34 PM   #14
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I beleive Reed came in the 2006 draft.
You're right, I was thinking of Kareem Moore.
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Old 05-01-2012, 02:50 PM   #15
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Re: Grade the Draft ... 2009 style

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You're right, I was thinking of Kareem Moore.
God I feel like Reed has been here since the dawn of time.
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