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Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Old 08-29-2008, 05:20 PM   #121
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

Yeah, i think the only voters who go from Clinton to McCain will most likely do so out of spite for the (in their mind) slights Hillary took from Obama.
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Old 08-29-2008, 05:26 PM   #122
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.
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Old 08-29-2008, 06:54 PM   #123
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Originally Posted by wilsowilso View Post
This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.
Not so fast my friend.....

War Room - Salon.com

You're right on about the conservative Christian vote, but the rest of your analysis is way off.

Angry Clinton supporters toast McCain, roast Obama - CNN.com

Hillary Supporters for McCain: Gov. Sarah Palin: Presidential Material

Ha! Say the Online Hillary Supporters | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

The first article is from CNN (no bastion of conservatism) and these numbers don't bode well for Obama, "But there is some bad news for Obama. The poll showed that 66 percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June."

Let's look at those numbers. Hillary was claiming approximately 18 million votes in the primary, for the sake of being conservative (pun intended), let's say it was only 10 million. Now polls are showing approximately 27% are favoring McCain, not staying home, favoring McCain. Being conservative again, let's say the real number is 20%, that translates into 2 million votes for McCain that are coming from the Democrat base. That is a 4 million vote swing. If those votes are in battleground areas (very likely) the media will be forecasting McCain the winner before midnight on election night.

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.
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Old 08-29-2008, 07:22 PM   #124
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.
Obama doesn't at all need the support of these so called Hillary Clinton supporters. These are supporters from the primary election season(the tracking will change for the general election seeing as how many states allowed Republicans to actually vote in Democratic primaries). Voters that are upset enough that Clinton didn't win the nomination that they would actually cross party lines and or vote for a woman who quite literally is on the exact opposite side of the aisle on just about every major issue are actually just voters who were part of the GOP base to begin with. The only reason they were going to vote for a Democrat was simply because Hillary was a woman. It's all about core issues and the number of so called "Hillary effect" defectors that are actually true democrats who would completely disregard whatever issues are most important to their everyday lives just because they are bitter is not going to be very dramatic IMO.

Also, the choice of Palin(pro life) basically guarantees that anyone in those polls who's got concerns about the core issue that a woman should have the right to choose will vote for Obama. No matter how mad you might be nobody's giving up basic constitutionally protected rights just to prove a point.

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Old 08-29-2008, 07:57 PM   #125
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

What will be interesting to see, is will the Hilary supporters support Palin ,after Hilary starts to slam Palin? If I was the Dems, I would send Hilary after her.
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Old 08-29-2008, 08:23 PM   #126
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Why is my statement intellectually dishonest? I simply said McCain can't play the experience and national security card he has been playing given his VP pick. I mean look at his ads. As I have said countless (Understanding the Issues: Education) times (Senator Caught Trying to Solicit Sex in Men's Room), I believe experience is overrated and overplayed. You can have all the experience in the world and still lack sound judgment and
have poor policy.
Experience generally becomes unimportant when one does not have any. I wonder would you select your surgeon on this basis as well?

Why are we comparing the experience level of the Obama, and Palin? Compare Obama to Mccain, and Biden to Palin if necessary. Anything else is meaningless
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Old 08-29-2008, 08:49 PM   #127
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Experience generally becomes unimportant when one does not have any. I wonder would you select your surgeon on this basis as well?

Why are we comparing the experience level of the Obama, and Palin? Compare Obama to Mccain, and Biden to Palin if necessary. Anything else is meaningless
It depends, Jan Adams has experience but you wouldn't want him cutting your nails much less operate on you. Point is experience is nice but it doesn't tell you much. I routinely interview candidates and they all have all sorts of fancy experience on their resume but the truth is while you can bullshit me with your resume you certainly can't bullshit me on the white-board.

Is it really that hard to understand my position or what I have written? McCain is the one playing the experience card...McCain effectively took the experience card off the table with the Palin pick seeing how he is a dead man walking. Really simple.
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Old 08-29-2008, 09:19 PM   #128
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Is it really that hard to understand my position or what I have written? McCain is the one playing the experience card...McCain effectively took the experience card off the table with the Palin pick seeing how he is a dead man walking. Really simple.
And yet, the selection of Biden by Obama does not remove the "Change Card" even though Biden is backed by two of the most powerful insider lobbying powers - big labor and trial lawyers. And sorry, don't give me the dead man walking routine in today's world of extended living. (not extended survival -extended living. We are past the days of "shove em in a home at 70")
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Old 08-29-2008, 09:56 PM   #129
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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It depends, Jan Adams has experience but you wouldn't want him cutting your nails much less operate on you. Point is experience is nice but it doesn't tell you much. I routinely interview candidates and they all have all sorts of fancy experience on their resume but the truth is while you can bullshit me with your resume you certainly can't bullshit me on the white-board.

Is it really that hard to understand my position or what I have written? McCain is the one playing the experience card...McCain effectively took the experience card off the table with the Palin pick seeing how he is a dead man walking. Really simple.
No it is not difficult to understand your point. The political machinery on both sdes of the fence is in high gear searching out percieved weakness, and the exploitation of same.
I am not sure if "experience" trumps "change" or not. Your call
Ideally, we need a leader that possess's experience, judgement, etc, etc. While I am impressed with neither, I will end up voting for the one who I feel will do the least damage
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Old 08-29-2008, 10:15 PM   #130
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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And yet, the selection of Biden by Obama does not remove the "Change Card" even though Biden is backed by two of the most powerful insider lobbying powers - big labor and trial lawyers. And sorry, don't give me the dead man walking routine in today's world of extended living. (not extended survival -extended living. We are past the days of "shove em in a home at 70")
What does change mean to you? For me, it's change in policy and direction. Remove the change card...which means what? He's a typical politician? His policies will be no different than that of Republicans? He's just looking to get elected?

According to the CIA the mean life expectancy for males is 75.29 years. There's a good chance McCain might not make it through his first term. He has roughly 50/50 chance though his cancer complicates things. Oh never mind, I'm sure he has great genes and he'll get the best care money can buy to extend his life.

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Old 08-29-2008, 10:21 PM   #131
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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No it is not difficult to understand your point. The political machinery on both sdes of the fence is in high gear searching out percieved weakness, and the exploitation of same.
I am not sure if "experience" trumps "change" or not. Your call
Ideally, we need a leader that possess's experience, judgement, etc, etc. While I am impressed with neither, I will end up voting for the one who I feel will do the least damage
Experience vs Change? What does that mean?

Qualify "least damage."
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Old 08-29-2008, 10:37 PM   #132
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Experience vs Change? What does that mean?

Qualify "least damage."
Mccain's platform of experience
Obama's platform of change

Least damage=least damage done to our country by either of our prospective Presidents
IMO it is a shame this is the best we can field.
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Old 08-30-2008, 10:43 AM   #133
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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The script goes something like this:

Obama: "We need change! Change, and hope!"

General Audience: "Sounds good! But what kind of change? What are we changing TO?"

Obama: "Just change. And hope too, don't forget the hope."

Liberals: "Can't argue with that, change is good! Long as we go somewhere, who cares where it is, right?"

Conservatives: "Change is scary. That nice looking old white man looks more reliable."

Obama: "pssst...change! (and hope)"

McCain: Unavailable. Currently having some soldering work done on his iron lung.

Obama: "We're hopeful FOR change! And the change will bring us hope!"

General Audience: "I don't know, still not sure what's changing or what it's changing to.

Liberals: "YEAH! We'll just hope that the change takes us where we want to go! We'll hammer out the specifics later."

Conservatives: Unavailable. Too embarrassed to comment.

McCain: "I'll give you change! How does a 44-year old woman as VP sound?!"

Obama: "Um...well, we don't really want THAT kind of change."

General Audience: "So what kind of change is good?"

Obama: "Don't know, but we know it's not that kind of change. It's change, just different."

Liberals: "Woohoo! Change! And hope!"

Conservatives: "Yowza! She's hot AND she's got a gun!"
Greatest. Post. Ever.
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Old 08-30-2008, 10:52 AM   #134
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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Palin is also batshit crazy...no abortion in case of rape and incest!
I'm not a hard line pro lifer in the slightest, but do explain why this is a "batshit crazy" position given the implication from the religious right that Abortion is a form of Murder.

Given that implication, the next step in logic tells us that two moral wrongs would not make a right.
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Old 08-30-2008, 10:57 AM   #135
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Re: Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

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According to the CIA the mean life expectancy for males is 75.29 years.
Don't forget to mention that the mean life expectancy for any male who lives to (at least) age 72 is much higher than that.

This is not a whole lot different from arguing that the mean football team finishes 8-8, so the 7-3 Colts have little chance at the playoffs.
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