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How Low Can It Go?

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Old 07-23-2009, 01:39 PM   #151
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:10 PM   #152
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by dmek25 View Post
Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?
Short-term possibly, however I wouldn't hop back in the market just yet.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009...est=latestnews

Bear market cycles
Nine years is short for a bear market as these cycles can last up to 14 years. When Napier wrote his book in 2005 he said we would need to see four things before a true market bottom emerged: a bond market crash, a recession, lower interest rates and a general price disturbance (inflation or deflation) leading to a final bottom in share prices.
Given that in the past four years we have only seen two out of these four factors – recession and low interest rates – at least two more things still have still to happen based on the historical precedents of the 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 stock market bottoms.
‘Equities will have to fall below fair value and the likely catalyst will be a bout of deflation or, more likely, inflation. There will have to be a bear market in bonds and a recession,’ concluded Napier.
‘Before the bear market is over, the DJIA is likely to decline by at least 60 per cent – perhaps something more than 80 per cent (given the current level of earnings and replacement value of assets.’
Hyperinflation scenario
That would take the Dow down to 2,800-5,600 points, sometime between 2009-2014, according to Napier. Recently the hyperinflationists like Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have suggested that inflation is likely to come to the rescue of share prices and support the Dow in an economic recession.
Share prices would therefore be supported in nominal if not real value terms. Yet there is nothing from the experience of the 1970s to support this theory. You have to look at the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe for a precedent.
It could be that the US economy deteriorates to such a degree but surely we would first see a re-run of the 1970s? And that would allow time for Napier’s bottom to be formed in US markets. Unless you think it is different this time, Napier will be right. History is always a good precedent.
And a final reason to believe the market has not seen the bottom yet: share trading volumes are far too high. You need to see a widespread aversion to share ownership before a real bottom can be called. People are still far too keen on equities.

An increase in prices during a primary trend bear market is called a bear market rally. A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%. Bear market rallies typically begin suddenly and are often short-lived. Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

http://www.uschambermagazine.com/content/0907_econ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:10 PM   #153
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by dmek25 View Post
Existing-home sales leap in June
Dow tops 9,000 after home sales data
Ford reports surprise second-quarter profit
so, dd we bottom out?
Yes, we did a while ago.

I expect we'll take another dip down as another wave of foreclosures hits the US in the next 12 months, but not below where we were back in the early part of this year.

We'll go down again, but then back up in 2010 as we pull out of the now-oncoming second wave of recession.
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:17 PM   #154
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

If so, I for one will say that I am happy my prediction was wrong.
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:24 PM   #155
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

. By March 9, 2009, the DJIA reached a closing low at 6,547.05 (after an intra-day low of 6,469.95[13] during the March 6 session), its lowest close since April 1997
if this holds, who was closest?
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:27 PM   #156
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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. By March 9, 2009, the DJIA reached a closing low at 6,547.05 (after an intra-day low of 6,469.95[13] during the March 6 session), its lowest close since April 1997
if this holds, who was closest?
A number of us said 6,000. Including me.

Of course jsarno also said it, so apparently the sun shines on every dog's ass.

jk jsarno
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:44 PM   #157
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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I know my buddy who is a home appraiser has been very busy which is always a good sign and he says its about 50/50 with refinacing and home sales.
Talking to a friend who is a real estate agent, the market for >$ 300K homes in our area has almost returned to normal, + $ 300K is still very slow.
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:45 PM   #158
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.
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Old 07-23-2009, 02:59 PM   #159
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

since you cant reach it, ill pat you on the back
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Old 07-23-2009, 03:01 PM   #160
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.
Come on, he's only been in for 7 months, give him time - geez
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Old 07-23-2009, 03:38 PM   #161
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Damn I wanted riots in the streets and Obama's head on a stick. For the record I said 6000 as well.
Patience.........there is still time. The health care bill must still be haggled out.........
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Old 07-27-2009, 12:33 PM   #162
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33 View Post
The high income earners are so far outnumbered they have little to no chance to win at the ballot box.
I think that's the way democracy is supposed to work.
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Old 07-27-2009, 12:53 PM   #163
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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I just wished that ever American had to sit down at the end of the month and write out a check to the federal and state to pay their taxes. This way its not hidden in each paycheck and people had to actually write out the amount and withdraw it over and over again from their check book. Now the goverment has the employeer do their dirty work and most people have no clue what they pay in taxes. All they care about is how much of a refund will they get at the end of the year. If they had to actually pay these taxes those refund checks they receive would start to look kind of small. I love when someone making 60,000 grand a year gets all excited at getting back $500 to $1,200 like they hit the jack pot. When I hear someone like that I look at them and ask them how much they paid in taxes. They usually get this dumb look on their face and say "I don't know". So who here knows what they pay in taxes each year without looking at you taxes or pay stub?
$20K federal and $400 state for 2008.
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Old 07-27-2009, 12:54 PM   #164
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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I think that's the way democracy is supposed to work.
James Madison would argue it isn't. His argument is that a federalist democracy, our basic founding structure, protects the minority from the "tyranny of the majority" at a national level. Basically a collection of mostly self-governing states would prevent a national majority from expropriating the minority since states rights would provide protection from such occurrences. Of course we long ago ceased actually having a true federalist structure (if we ever did) and more and more of our federalist principles seep away every day.
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Old 07-27-2009, 01:37 PM   #165
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

New-Home Sales Jumped 11% in June From May - WSJ.com

good news
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