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How Low Can It Go?

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Old 03-03-2009, 09:46 PM   #46
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by FRPLG View Post
Agreed. But people ARE panicing in the stock market and many are doing so because of O' policies. I am not saying the policies do matter just that they are affecting people. O seems not to care.
He shouldn't care. If people want to be irrational (ie retarded) and get all panicky and sell, that's their problem. Eventually someone else will come along and buy up those devalued shares, and they will be the ones to reap the rewards when the market goes back up. From a macro level, it's all good for the United States. Some will get panicky and lose by selling now, and others will pick up those shares and gain.

It's up to the people to decide for themselves to be smart or stupid with their money. If they're looking to the President of the United States to determine what the market is going to do, then they're categorically being stupid.
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Old 03-03-2009, 09:50 PM   #47
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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The difference between you and I is that I never took the position that a) too much taxes are good for the economy and b) the impact of increasing the tax rate from 35% to 39% is always harmful.
No the difference is that you rarely actually take a position. You roam around these threads basically saying "nanny nanny boo boo you are wrong". You google around and find some links to support your hole poking and never say "this is what I believe..." It is quite tiresome. What do YOU think about taxes? More people than I have tried to get what YOUR position is. Are higher taxes ok or not? WHy or why not? Make an argument. It doesn't have to have nine artciles from various biased or unbiased aources to support it either. Just give your opinion. You don't always need the articles. People here know you aren't a dumdum.
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Old 03-03-2009, 09:55 PM   #48
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by 4mrusmc View Post
djnemo65, I may not be as profound as some of our esteemed members of this fine community. But, when the largest global domino (the U.S.) has a it's economy in the toliet. All of the other little dominoes fall suit.

When our president, and his supporters are openly hostile to people of higher means, what would you expect the economy to do?

The vast majority of the people who pulled the lever for the big O, stepped out of that same voting booth with their hand-out looking for a pay-out. Where as the vast majority of the people who voted for the other guy, simply tried to stem the tide. Most of the same people who chant "yes we can", look for government as a solution to their problems. It's not their fault, they just don't know any better. Do you really think that those "yes we can" people will want to roll up their sleeves, and create, innovate, and put forth anything that will have an impact on our current economic crisis? Really, do you?

I think that this government really needs to be aware of who really drives this economic machine, and stop fing with it, and being hostile to it.

Somewhere there is a community missing it's organizer. Interestingly ironic, yes it is.
Your argument would make sense if and only if the economy was in good shape, Obama got elected, Obama announced his new tax policies, the US market imploded, and then the rest of the world quickly followed suit. This happening wouldn't make your argument true, it would just make it not on face ridiculous.

Given that this isn't what happened the best one can say about your position is that you are failing to account for mechanisms much more complex than upper level income taxes. That's putting it charitably. Once you wade through the platitudes and slogans in your post what is left? Not much economic analysis.

Tremendous weaknesses in not just the US economy but the global economy have been exposed over the past year. It's not any one person's fault (no, not even Bush's) and it's a hell of a lot bigger than domestic tax policy (which isn't even going to be changed until 2011).

And I'm going 5500.
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:00 PM   #49
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
He shouldn't care. If people want to be irrational (ie retarded) and get all panicky and sell, that's their problem. Eventually someone else will come along and buy up those devalued shares, and they will be the ones to reap the rewards when the market goes back up. From a macro level, it's all good for the United States. Some will get panicky and lose by selling now, and others will pick up those shares and gain.

It's up to the people to decide for themselves to be smart or stupid with their money. If they're looking to the President of the United States to determine what the market is going to do, then they're categorically being stupid.
I see your point an d fundamentally agree but here's the rub. While his policies kill the market real devaluation is taking place. People who don't have 10 years to wait for it come back are getting screwed in the ear. It is not going to bounce straight back up. It will probably be a slow and steady rise.
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:05 PM   #50
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

I sold last September and I claimed my losses on my taxes. I am looking to buy back in within the next couple of months. By my estimation despite my losses I am about to make some considerable gains in the future. Is that wrong...Schneed?
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:13 PM   #51
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by 70Chip View Post
Okay. So far a lively debate but very few specific predictions. Those with balls are:

jsarno: 6000
redskinjim: 5000
Saden1: 5000 (not out of the question)
Buster: 3500
70Chip: 3499
CRedskinsRule: 0
That Guy: Less than 0 (possibly)

Of course the winner gets to inherit my Tom Tupa avatar.
I'll go 4900.
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:27 PM   #52
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
As soon as we begin to blame the President of the United States for what is happening to the stock market, you can pretty much call the market's behavior irrational. The president of the United States has very little control over the economy, big stimulus bills or otherwise.

The fact that people are blaming Obama shows that too many have no idea what's driving the downturn, which means prices have been driven down too far.

When lending turns around this market will bounce very high. Don't worry about whether you're getting in on the ground floor, just get in before you miss it.
The POTUS has very little control by himself. A Democratic POTUS with a Democratic Congress has a great deal of control. In this particular situation where the housing market has tanked due to bad loan policies, it will take some gov't intervention to fix the situation and remove the bad loans from the system. Hopefully this will restore banks confidence in each other and people's confidence in the banks. Credit should begin to flow and people will spend again.

However in the face of this economic crisis a tax increase targeted at those who drive the economy, a capital gains increase, restoration of a 45% death tax and energy/pollution taxes (which will be paid by every American who has electric service or puts gas in his/her car), coupled with huge spending increases has a great deal to do with the current drop in the markets. Will they rebound, at some point of course. We came out of the depression and the 70s, but as FRPLG mentioned, we will most likely wind up with another lost decade if Obama's administration doesn't do an about face on their current policies/positions.

For the record I'm betting on a floor of 4800.
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Old 03-03-2009, 10:38 PM   #53
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by FRPLG View Post
No the difference is that you rarely actually take a position. You roam around these threads basically saying "nanny nanny boo boo you are wrong". You google around and find some links to support your hole poking and never say "this is what I believe..." It is quite tiresome. What do YOU think about taxes? More people than I have tried to get what YOUR position is. Are higher taxes ok or not? WHy or why not? Make an argument. It doesn't have to have nine artciles from various biased or unbiased aources to support it either. Just give your opinion. You don't always need the articles. People here know you aren't a dumdum.
.
LOL, touched a nerve have we? All my post stand on their own without having to click on the links. I'm not sure what you're looking for. I always answer questions posed, and I respond to posts I disagree with. The formula is that simple. If you have a problem with a post of mine I'll be happy to elaborate and clarify.

Much like you a few around here view me as the asshole guy, but the truth is I'd like to think of myself in a more positive light...Defender of Reason. I like the sound of that, what do you think?


1. What do YOU think about taxes?

Taxes are fine, they help organize and maintain the collective.

2. Are higher taxes ok or not?
I can't answer this question in its current form. The question is too complex to answer with a simple yes or no. Phrase the question better and I will answer it.

3. Why or why not?
I haven't answered question 2 therefore I cannot answer this question.
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Old 03-03-2009, 11:23 PM   #54
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Angry View Post
I sold last September and I claimed my losses on my taxes. I am looking to buy back in within the next couple of months. By my estimation despite my losses I am about to make some considerable gains in the future. Is that wrong...Schneed?
That's what I'm doing. I'd caution that you shouldn't go heavy on stocks if you need the money within the next 10 years. Otherwise, it's a great time to go for it.
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Old 03-03-2009, 11:29 PM   #55
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33 View Post
The POTUS has very little control by himself. A Democratic POTUS with a Democratic Congress has a great deal of control. In this particular situation where the housing market has tanked due to bad loan policies, it will take some gov't intervention to fix the situation and remove the bad loans from the system. Hopefully this will restore banks confidence in each other and people's confidence in the banks. Credit should begin to flow and people will spend again.

However in the face of this economic crisis a tax increase targeted at those who drive the economy, a capital gains increase, restoration of a 45% death tax and energy/pollution taxes (which will be paid by every American who has electric service or puts gas in his/her car), coupled with huge spending increases has a great deal to do with the current drop in the markets. Will they rebound, at some point of course. We came out of the depression and the 70s, but as FRPLG mentioned, we will most likely wind up with another lost decade if Obama's administration doesn't do an about face on their current policies/positions.

For the record I'm betting on a floor of 4800.
I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.
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Old 03-04-2009, 12:07 AM   #56
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by saden1 View Post
Much like you a few around here view me as the asshole guy, but the truth is I'd like to think of myself in a more positive light...Defender of Reason. I like the sound of that, what do you think?
You'd need longer hair and thicker armor to fit the stereotype I have in my head of you now.
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Old 03-04-2009, 12:43 AM   #57
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by GTripp0012 View Post
You'd need longer hair and thicker armor to fit the stereotype I have in my head of you now.
Sorry dog, I don't Live Action DnD.




Apologies to 70Chip for hijacking his thread.
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Old 03-04-2009, 07:49 AM   #58
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.
Agree. I've just got a little less faith than you do in folks being rational.
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Old 03-04-2009, 07:51 AM   #59
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Sorry dog, I don't Live Action DnD.
Next time you start killing us with the YouTube clips, you'll get...Fireball, fireball......
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Old 03-04-2009, 08:14 AM   #60
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Re: How Low Can It Go?

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Originally Posted by 70Chip View Post
Okay. So far a lively debate but very few specific predictions. Those with balls are:

jsarno: 6000
djnemo65 5500
redskinjim: 5000
Saden1: 5000 (not out of the question)
FRPLG 4900
Slingin Sammy 33 4800
Buster: 3500
70Chip: 3499
CRedskinsRule: 0
That Guy: Less than 0 (possibly)

Of course the winner gets to inherit my Tom Tupa avatar.
I want in on that Tupa action.

No lower than 6k
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