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11122009, 02:41 PM  #1 
Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 94
 Someone good at math... Okay... so I am a math moron but a bit of a gambler. I heard a discussion this morning of a place that was considering a 12X12 box for a $1 million bucks. That is, you have to get 12 out of 12 games right. I was wondering, what are the total number of possible combinations of 12 games by 12 games? Anyone? 
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11122009, 03:03 PM  #2 
Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle
Posts: 10,069
 Re: Someone good at math... Total possible combinations is 12^12 ~= 8.9 trillion. OK, so I need more clarification to do the math right. I mean, you have to get 12 games right out of how many total number of games you have to select from? What is total number of games you have to choose from? 
11122009, 03:15 PM  #3 
Playmaker Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Woodbridge, VA
Posts: 3,238
 Re: Someone good at math... i now have a headache
__________________ "I don't think anybody should have regrets, especially me, ... You don't regret what you do in your life. If you do it, you do it for a reason." ST21 
11122009, 03:19 PM  #4 
Franchise Player Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Ellicott City, MD
Posts: 8,029
 Re: Someone good at math... The answer is ?3
__________________ "Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." The Dude 
11122009, 03:41 PM  #5 
Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 94
 Re: Someone good at math... I have to select 12 games only and get exactly 12 games right. So, I was thinking something like 2^12 ? 
11122009, 03:43 PM  #6 
Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle
Posts: 10,069
 Re: Someone good at math... 12 games out of how many games? I mean, do you have to select 12 games out of the entire xbox 360 game library? In order to calculate the odds of you getting 12 correct we need to know the total number of games you have to select from. Maybe post a link to the contest itself. Anywho, the formula for calculating the odds of you picking the right 12 games is: n!÷(r!*(n−r)!) Where n is the total number games you have to choose from and r is the number of games you have to get right. So if you have to pick 12 games right out of 100 games your odds are: 1,050,421,051,106,700 to 1. That's a quadrillion to one odds...a runaway star has a better chance of hitting our sun than you getting the right 12 games. 
11122009, 03:52 PM  #7 
Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 94
 Re: Someone good at math... No, no. (perhaps you are just messing with me) Each week you look at the NFL games(with the betting line of course). Out of the 16 games available(obviously less during bye weeks) you would select 12 games. To win the million, you would have to get all 12 picks correct. So, I figured 2^12 = 4096 possible combinations. So, if I was to place 4096 bets at $12.50 per play, I would spend roughly $51,000 but be assured a $1 million payout. Seems like unacceptable risk to the house. Now, calculating the odds of hitting that without loading up every combination would be a different thing. Each game could fairly be considered to be a 50% chance of winning. Maybe shade that up to 54% or so if you are having a good year and have a good f"feel" for the games. Either way though, the odds of a single play would be pretty tall. 
11122009, 04:02 PM  #8 
Registered User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Seattle
Posts: 10,069
 Re: Someone good at math... I total misunderstood...I had video games on my mind. So basically you have to win 12 games you've selected every week to get that million? Or do they give out a million every week? 
11122009, 04:05 PM  #9 
Playmaker Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Woodbridge, VA
Posts: 3,238
 Re: Someone good at math... i have a headache again
__________________ "I don't think anybody should have regrets, especially me, ... You don't regret what you do in your life. If you do it, you do it for a reason." ST21 
11122009, 04:07 PM  #10 
Inactive Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: DC Metro Area
Posts: 5,829
 Re: Someone good at math... What if there are 5 ties? Unlikely I know, but it seems as if you would be out of 51K. 
11122009, 04:19 PM  #11 
Camp Scrub Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 94
 Re: Someone good at math... Valid question. My assumption would be that they are all half point games. For example, Denver is favored by 3.5 right now over the Skins. No ties possible. As a footnote for my fellow degenerates  Washkington is 26 against the spread. 04 both on the road and as a favorite. So, if you bet the other team, you are making money 75% of the time. Better than the market! 
11122009, 04:25 PM  #12 
Most Interesting Man in the World Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Chantilly, VA
Posts: 8,606
 Re: Someone good at math... thats .5^12 then right. If the prob of winning each game is 50 percent.
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11122009, 04:36 PM  #13  
Playmaker Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 3,807
 Re: Someone good at math... Quote:
Adding a tie to the mix changes the numbers significantly. You could use your judgment to minimize the risks of a tie, though, but the results wouldn't be a sure thing, obviously. ie, you may lose a ton of money.
__________________ "It's not about what you've done, but what's been done for you."  
11132009, 12:06 AM  #14 
The Starter Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,961
 Re: Someone good at math... The answer is 42, but I don't know what the question is. 
11132009, 05:25 AM  #15 
Contains football related knowledge Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Second Star On The Right
Posts: 10,242
 Re: Someone good at math... Ask the mice.
__________________ Strap it up, hold onto the ball, and let’s go. 
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