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Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Old 05-25-2010, 02:47 PM   #181
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by Mattyk View Post
Your math may be a bit off, this is what I read this morning:

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has dumped over 6 million gallons of oil into the ocean, according to the New York Daily News, but scientists believe that the actual number could be more than twice that, according to the Associated Press.

The Exxon Valdez spill in 1989, dumped 11 million gallons into the ocean. The difference, proximity. The Deepwater Horizon spill is only 50 miles off of the coast of Louisiana.

White House Says The Gulf Oil Spill Is Worst In US History – IndyPosted
my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.
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Old 05-25-2010, 02:57 PM   #182
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.
Yesterday I heard that in Canada they must drill two wells. Relief wells are a part of the risk protection there. Seems like as soon as it happened they started drilling the relief well because they knew the relief well should have already been built (common sense).
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:02 PM   #183
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

How much oil is spilling in to the Gulf of Mexico? And, yes, it does matter. | Lisa Suatoni's Blog | Switchboard, from NRDC

interesting read:
Quote:
...
Why the size of the spill matters

BP and the federal government repeatedly argue that measuring the volume of oil entering the Gulf is not a priority, that a more precise measure of flow rate is not important. Their rationale is that it would not influence the response in any way.

We disagree for a number of reasons:

1. Scale. The flow rate estimates differ by a factor of ten. Differences on this scale are not quibbles; they are big, fundamental differences.
2. Response. The discrepancy is sufficiently large enough to influence response strategies. For example, to promote the efficacy of dispersants, they are applied at a specific ratio to the volume of oil. This is not possible if the volume is unknown, by this large of a degree. In addition, the ability to successfully cap the well, engineer a dome, or pump the oil to the surface depends on a good estimate of the oil flow rate (both in terms of volume of oil and the force with which it is exiting the pipe).
3. Law. Under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, a natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) must be conducted. This entails assessing the input of oil, its fate (i.e., where it goes, what it coats and contaminates), and the damage it caused. The ability to fully conduct this accounting – or ‘mass balance’ - requires knowing the initial volume of oil.
4. Financial Penalty. Following discharge of oil into a water body, the federal Clean Water Act allows for a civil penalty of up to $1,000 per barrel of oil spilled. This penalty can not be calculated to its fullest extent without knowing the total volume of oil.
5. Future emergency plans. Knowing the magnitude of this spill is necessary to inform future emergency response plans. Substantial underestimates of the volume of oil leaking from Deepwater Horizon will leave us unprepared in the future.

There are multiple reasons why BP may not want the true amount of oil to be known. Just take for example, the $1000 per barrel of oil spill civil penalty under the Clean Water Act. Using the “official” number of 5,000 barrels per day, their current tally is $140 million (and counting). Using some of the higher estimates provided by visual analysis of the leaking pipe, BP’s current tally is in the billions (and counting).

The bigger mystery is why the federal government is sitting on the sidelines. Why has the federal government been reluctant - and so slow - to undertake its own assessment of the size of the spill, particularly given the available expertise and alternative methods?
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:11 PM   #184
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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That makes no sense at all. BP is taking a hit here from 4 different sides.
1: the cost to shut this thing down
2: the cost to clean it up
3: the cost to restore people who depend on the water to make a living
4: lost revenue from the sale of the oil.

Please explain why BP would throw risk management out the window again?
They had non-working valves, dead batteries, cracking concrete, and all of this was documented by them. Yet, they did not fix it. Sound like risk management gone wild boys. Waht ahppened ot your eco-terrorist theory. See, conservatives say the darndest things then hope everyone forgets about them. Free willy!! Free Willy!!! (imagine that to a Luke beat)
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:33 PM   #185
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.
You're talking barrrels but I was thinking gallons, nevermind. Either way it's a cluster F no doubt.
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:36 PM   #186
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Not sure about all that being document but we sure know who gave them the OK to start drilling without the proper permits.
Bush and his buddies? That well was there before Obama. LOL!
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:40 PM   #187
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Not sure about all that being document but we sure know who gave them the OK to start drilling without the proper permits.
Oil Spill Stunner: BOP had dead battery, leaking hydraulics and 260 design flaws | Jamie Friedland's Blog


Risk Management?
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:41 PM   #188
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Oil Spill Stunner: BOP had dead battery, leaking hydraulics and 260 design flaws | Jamie Friedland's Blog

Risk Management?
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:50 PM   #189
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

2 good comments from the comment section of JTF's article:
Quote:
user-pic

It was reported that the BOP couldn't cut the joint, which is a small percentage of the pipe area, and there is no reason why there would be a joint in that position. That's why it was acceptable, and that isn't what failed. And the 260 failure modes are simply all the theoretical ways it could fail, that doesn't mean they are design flaws. Like your car could fail to start because the battery was dead, or the car is out of gas, or the fuel pump doesn't work, or the injectors are clogged, or the ECM is shot, etc.
Posted by theCleverBulldog in reply to a comment from Jamie Friedland
May 13, 2010 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
user-pic

That's not exactly right. There is a specific reason a pipe joint might be aligned with the shears: because that's where the pipe happened to be when the disaster struck. Joints make up a specific percentage of the entire drill pipe surface and they pass through the ram shears at regular intervals. Sure, the *odds* are better that it won't be so aligned. But the odds are WELL on this side of "likely" when designing a fail-safe device. And while Jamie doesn't mention it here, there is actually some question if the shears were strong enough to cut the pipe they were using at all. Apparently this rig might have been using a more difficult to cut pipe than the BOP was rated for (in good working order - which this one was not) to handle the depth pressures.

I do think you are correct about the meaning of the 260 failure modes. But there are about a dozen specific modifications that were made to this unit (including hooking up non-working test rams to the circuit that was supposed to be running the shears), and several identified problems such as leaking hydraulics (which needed to be pressurized by ROV). There are also some issues about the BOP reliability in general and types of tests that they routinely fail.

It looks like plenty of ancillary blame to go around - i.e. person [x] could have prevented it at any number of stages along the way if they had just done their jobs better. The whole damn industry needs a serious kick in the ass IMO. But as best I can tell, this is starting to look pretty bad for BP as the final point of critical breakdown. Even if the Halliburton cement job did cause a gas bubble - it was a documented potential problem. Considering the BOP was all fucked up and literally modified, it's hard to blame Halliburton for the backup safety mechanisms ALL failing.
Posted by kgb999 in reply to a comment from theCleverBulldog
May 13, 2010 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:50 PM   #190
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by firstdown View Post
That makes no sense at all. BP is taking a hit here from 4 different sides.
1: the cost to shut this thing down
2: the cost to clean it up
3: the cost to restore people who depend on the water to make a living
4: lost revenue from the sale of the oil.

Please explain why BP would throw risk management out the window again?
The 60 minutes link you posted provides the answer. If BP was losing $ 1M + per day from not being able to get to the oil reserves fast enough and they pressured the TransOcean folks, risk management and safety took a backseat to meeting the estimates to the "Street".

How's the bottom line looking now BP a-holes.
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Old 05-25-2010, 03:59 PM   #191
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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2 good comments from the comment section of JTF's article:
Wow we quoting comments or making comments. I can go to any article about Obama and find comments that prove he is a communist muslim spy that smokes crack and sleeps with men.
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Old 05-25-2010, 04:00 PM   #192
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33 View Post
The 60 minutes link you posted provides the answer. If BP was losing $ 1M + per day from not being able to get to the oil reserves fast enough and they pressured the TransOcean folks, risk management and safety took a backseat to meeting the estimates to the "Street".

How's the bottom line looking now BP a-holes.


That my friend is called the TRUTH!!!!!
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Old 05-25-2010, 04:05 PM   #193
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Bush and his buddies? That well was there before Obama. LOL!
I can deal with the liberal slant of all your posts, that's all cool, but if you're going to make a statement please have your facts straight:

Deepwater Horizon Inspections: MMS Skipped Monthly Inspections On Doomed Rig

The Deepwater permit for drilling this well was issued under the Obama Administration. The Obama Administration did NOTHING to fix the lazy inspection process. Don't try to pin this on Bush. His Admin certainly shares fault, he was lucky something like this didn't happen on his watch.
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Old 05-25-2010, 04:22 PM   #194
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Wow we quoting comments or making comments. I can go to any article about Obama and find comments that prove he is a communist muslim spy that smokes crack and sleeps with men.
We are discussing, those 2 commenters had very good takes, it is no different than quoting somebody here. My comment to you goes back to reading comprehension. I did not claim that they were factual, just good comments. I do think that they seemed to have a good knowledge base, but I don't know that.
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Old 05-25-2010, 04:25 PM   #195
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Well the BPGlobal Twitter that i mentioned is apparently fake....whats not fake is they have apparently pushed out again..
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