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Old 06-24-2010, 08:47 AM   #601
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by Trample the Elderly View Post
Look, take away the aspect that there might be an agenda behind this.

It's very simple.

Basic Plumbing 101:

1. Unscrew the bolts holding the couplers together.

2. Take off the damaged pipe.

3. Have another pipe with a relief valve on it and the bolts pre-welded in ready. Make sure the relief valve is open so the pressure from the oil will not blow off the new pipe.

4. Bolt on the new pipe.

5. Close the relief valve.

Problem solved.
Your idea would indeed work if it wasn't for the fact that the well casing itself was damaged during the top-kill operation.

The actual well casing itself is now damaged, and oil is leaking from it up through the sea floor. That's why BP gave up on the idea of installing a new blowout preventer. The pressure from having the wellhead suddenly closed would blowout what is left of the well casing, leaving a leak way worse and with no way to fix it.

And to joetheismanfan -- all of your points are correct. When Bill Nye the science guy was on TV, he explained that even though wells only produce typically for 5 to 10 years, the level of oil in this macondo well, while not infinite, has the potential to flow for the next 100 years.

A relief well is also not a sure bet. The government's private scientists have said in the past that drilling a relief well at this depth, has only about a 30 to 40% chance of success. We all universally agree that what has happened is beyond the limits of man and even science...at this point, the only person who will fix the gulf is GOD. I'm not trying to be a religious nut, but that's the truth....
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Old 06-24-2010, 09:01 AM   #602
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Experts agree BP oil well casing has failed: Relief wells ma... - Care2 News Network

This is the article that states how the well casing has already failed. For a nightmare scenario, read the comment below the article that states what will happen if the well were to collapse due to the blowout.

What may happen is the two relief wells may also blow from the tremendous pressure and we will end up with three times the oil flowing into the Gulf than what is currently killing the ecosystem and this may be the BEST case scenario. The worst case could be a complete collapse of the sea floor above the oil field causing an explosion comparable to Mount St. Helen's eruption only 50 miles offshore. The resulting tsunami would completely destroy the entire state of Florida because it is barely above sea level. The death toll could easily be in the 10's of millions as, as much as a mile or more of coastal shoreline around the entire Gulf of Mexico would be swamped by the tsunami.

So there you go. The worst has not even happened yet. A worst case scenario would leave 10's of millions dead, the entire gulf wiped out, and the state of florida crumbled into the sea floor.

I think this is almost apocalyptic, but the science behind the article says that it all could theoretically happen. I don't think it will be this bad, but we probably really truly haven't seen the worst yet.
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Old 06-24-2010, 09:15 AM   #603
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Your idea would indeed work if it wasn't for the fact that the well casing itself was damaged during the top-kill operation.

The actual well casing itself is now damaged, and oil is leaking from it up through the sea floor. That's why BP gave up on the idea of installing a new blowout preventer. The pressure from having the wellhead suddenly closed would blowout what is left of the well casing, leaving a leak way worse and with no way to fix it.

And to joetheismanfan -- all of your points are correct. When Bill Nye the science guy was on TV, he explained that even though wells only produce typically for 5 to 10 years, the level of oil in this macondo well, while not infinite, has the potential to flow for the next 100 years.

A relief well is also not a sure bet. The government's private scientists have said in the past that drilling a relief well at this depth, has only about a 30 to 40% chance of success. We all universally agree that what has happened is beyond the limits of man and even science...at this point, the only person who will fix the gulf is GOD. I'm not trying to be a religious nut, but that's the truth....

I'm changing my name form JTF to The Prophe-seer. I said let's pray on day 38.
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Old 06-24-2010, 09:25 AM   #604
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

BP Reinstalls Cap on Gulf Oil Leak, Intercept Well on Track - BusinessWeek

They're saying this morning the relief well is on track... but at this point I really don't have much faith in what BP says
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Old 06-24-2010, 10:14 AM   #605
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
Experts agree BP oil well casing has failed: Relief wells ma... - Care2 News Network

This is the article that states how the well casing has already failed. For a nightmare scenario, read the comment below the article that states what will happen if the well were to collapse due to the blowout.

What may happen is the two relief wells may also blow from the tremendous pressure and we will end up with three times the oil flowing into the Gulf than what is currently killing the ecosystem and this may be the BEST case scenario. The worst case could be a complete collapse of the sea floor above the oil field causing an explosion comparable to Mount St. Helen's eruption only 50 miles offshore. The resulting tsunami would completely destroy the entire state of Florida because it is barely above sea level. The death toll could easily be in the 10's of millions as, as much as a mile or more of coastal shoreline around the entire Gulf of Mexico would be swamped by the tsunami.

So there you go. The worst has not even happened yet. A worst case scenario would leave 10's of millions dead, the entire gulf wiped out, and the state of florida crumbled into the sea floor.

I think this is almost apocalyptic, but the science behind the article says that it all could theoretically happen. I don't think it will be this bad, but we probably really truly haven't seen the worst yet.
Sweet Jesus. Now that's a worst case scenario.
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Old 06-24-2010, 10:54 AM   #606
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
Your idea would indeed work if it wasn't for the fact that the well casing itself was damaged during the top-kill operation.

The actual well casing itself is now damaged, and oil is leaking from it up through the sea floor. That's why BP gave up on the idea of installing a new blowout preventer. The pressure from having the wellhead suddenly closed would blowout what is left of the well casing, leaving a leak way worse and with no way to fix it.

And to joetheismanfan -- all of your points are correct. When Bill Nye the science guy was on TV, he explained that even though wells only produce typically for 5 to 10 years, the level of oil in this macondo well, while not infinite, has the potential to flow for the next 100 years.

A relief well is also not a sure bet. The government's private scientists have said in the past that drilling a relief well at this depth, has only about a 30 to 40% chance of success. We all universally agree that what has happened is beyond the limits of man and even science...at this point, the only person who will fix the gulf is GOD. I'm not trying to be a religious nut, but that's the truth....
Thanks Snake. I didn't know they cracked the casing. Jackasses. Who tries to shove golf balls down a pipe shooting out oil at hundreds of lbs psi? They can still put on a pipe and get a good 75% of the product. I'm not willing to give up and let God be the answer. God helps those who help themselves.
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Old 06-24-2010, 11:38 AM   #607
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Oh, when in doubt. Blame the government.

Walter Williams
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Old 06-24-2010, 11:47 AM   #608
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
Experts agree BP oil well casing has failed: Relief wells ma... - Care2 News Network

This is the article that states how the well casing has already failed. For a nightmare scenario, read the comment below the article that states what will happen if the well were to collapse due to the blowout.

What may happen is the two relief wells may also blow from the tremendous pressure and we will end up with three times the oil flowing into the Gulf than what is currently killing the ecosystem and this may be the BEST case scenario. The worst case could be a complete collapse of the sea floor above the oil field causing an explosion comparable to Mount St. Helen's eruption only 50 miles offshore. The resulting tsunami would completely destroy the entire state of Florida because it is barely above sea level. The death toll could easily be in the 10's of millions as, as much as a mile or more of coastal shoreline around the entire Gulf of Mexico would be swamped by the tsunami.

So there you go. The worst has not even happened yet. A worst case scenario would leave 10's of millions dead, the entire gulf wiped out, and the state of florida crumbled into the sea floor.

I think this is almost apocalyptic, but the science behind the article says that it all could theoretically happen. I don't think it will be this bad, but we probably really truly haven't seen the worst yet.
I just followed the link you posted. The part in bold is actually just a comment from a reader, not an "article." So really it's just some joe shmo totally speculating. Who knows if it's based in any fact whatsoever.
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Old 06-24-2010, 12:15 PM   #609
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by GMScud View Post
I just followed the link you posted. The part in bold is actually just a comment from a reader, not an "article." So really it's just some joe shmo totally speculating. Who knows if it's based in any fact whatsoever.
We quoting comments now? You got me. I guess I am just regular old JTF, and not the Prophe-seer.
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Old 06-24-2010, 01:18 PM   #610
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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We quoting comments now? You got me. I guess I am just regular old JTF, and not the Prophe-seer.
That was a reader comment, indeed. However, the reader is correct in their worst-case scenario, as the article clearly explains what COULD happen. Yes it's a nightmare scenario, but it is all scientifically plausible.

At this point with the disaster, everybody from you and me, to BP and the government are speculating, just like that person that posted the comment.

The bastards are making things up as they go, so it's impossible for somebody to not speculate on what the outcome is.

We can be honest with ourselves and say assuredly that the above scenario will probably not happen, but being factual and scientific, the possibility exists if certain things happen.

The biggest danger thus far is the well casing exploding from the pressure due to the fact that it is already damaged, and already leaking. That is why they stopped "Top Kill", because pieces of the blowout preventer were literally coming up from the well. They knew that much more and the well could explode.

So the issue from here out is can the well casing survive long enough for the relief wells to be finished, AND survive the pumping of mud and cement to permanantly close the damaged well. The other big maybe is that the relief wells work. The scientists say it is a 30 to 40% chance that they are successful.

And one last thing, as of today, the existing blowout preventer is titling at a 15 degree angle. It has been falling over the past few weeks, and unless supports are installed, it will fall over, ruining the containment cap and pipe that is taking oil and gas to the surface...
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:10 PM   #611
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
That was a reader comment, indeed. However, the reader is correct in their worst-case scenario, as the article clearly explains what COULD happen. Yes it's a nightmare scenario, but it is all scientifically plausible.

At this point with the disaster, everybody from you and me, to BP and the government are speculating, just like that person that posted the comment.

The bastards are making things up as they go, so it's impossible for somebody to not speculate on what the outcome is.

We can be honest with ourselves and say assuredly that the above scenario will probably not happen, but being factual and scientific, the possibility exists if certain things happen.

The biggest danger thus far is the well casing exploding from the pressure due to the fact that it is already damaged, and already leaking. That is why they stopped "Top Kill", because pieces of the blowout preventer were literally coming up from the well. They knew that much more and the well could explode.

So the issue from here out is can the well casing survive long enough for the relief wells to be finished, AND survive the pumping of mud and cement to permanantly close the damaged well. The other big maybe is that the relief wells work. The scientists say it is a 30 to 40% chance that they are successful.

And one last thing, as of today, the existing blowout preventer is titling at a 15 degree angle. It has been falling over the past few weeks, and unless supports are installed, it will fall over, ruining the containment cap and pipe that is taking oil and gas to the surface...
Thanks snake, so I am the Prophe-seer, or in BP's case the Prophe-C-YA!!!
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:16 PM   #612
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidSnake84 View Post
That was a reader comment, indeed. However, the reader is correct in their worst-case scenario, as the article clearly explains what COULD happen. Yes it's a nightmare scenario, but it is all scientifically plausible.
...

The biggest danger thus far is the well casing exploding from the pressure due to the fact that it is already damaged, and already leaking. That is why they stopped "Top Kill", because pieces of the blowout preventer were literally coming up from the well. They knew that much more and the well could explode.
So the issue from here out is can the well casing survive long enough for the relief wells to be finished, AND survive the pumping of mud and cement to permanantly close the damaged well. The other big maybe is that the relief wells work. The scientists say it is a 30 to 40% chance that they are successful.

And one last thing, as of today, the existing blowout preventer is titling at a 15 degree angle. It has been falling over the past few weeks, and unless supports are installed, it will fall over, ruining the containment cap and pipe that is taking oil and gas to the surface...
Why, y'all just need to send ol' TTE out there to change out that there pipe with a couple of lug nuts and rubber cee-ment! He'll have that bad boy up and running in no time. You and you're know-it-all scintists are just overthinking the problem!
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:35 PM   #613
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

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Why, y'all just need to send ol' TTE out there to change out that there pipe with a couple of lug nuts and rubber cee-ment! He'll have that bad boy up and running in no time. You and you're know-it-all scintists are just overthinking the problem!
They've done such a wonderful job so far.
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Old 06-24-2010, 02:39 PM   #614
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

I found this interesting:

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Old 06-24-2010, 05:32 PM   #615
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Re: Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

No way a wave would destroy all of Florida , the wave would have to be close to 20,000 ft high , and would need much more sustained wake/power to travel across 300 miles of land . These types of waves usually travel up to five miles inland .
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