Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043314]Brady is a much better QB in September than in December, which puts him in the company of everyone else who has walked this planet.[/quote]

His best month statistically is November. Followed by December. In 2010 he threw 11 TDs to 0 interceptions in December. In 2011 he threw 8 touchdowns to one interception in December. In 2012 he had a down year and threw 10 touchdowns but also 5 interceptions in December. 2009 was also a down year, where he threw 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043314]Brady is a much better QB in September than in December, which puts him in the company of everyone else who has walked this planet.[/quote]

So last night was the coldest game in New England in 20 years and 34/50 344 yards and 3 Tds outplaying his biggest rival...I dont know, thats kinda ballin in the cold.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043316]His best month statistically is November. Followed by December. In 2010 he threw 11 TDs to 0 interceptions in December. In 2011 he threw 8 touchdowns to one interception in December. In 2012 he had a down year and threw 10 touchdowns but also 5 interceptions in December. 2009 was also a down year, where he threw 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.[/quote]I'm passing this off as an effect on the way Belichick builds his teams, because we know offensive numbers leaguewide decline as the weather does. Brady isn't immune to this effect, as best evidenced by his postseason numbers. But any "cold weather" split is going to be somewhat arbitrary.

The Patriots have been a consistently better team late in the season than early in the season, and I'm assuming that Brady's numbers get a bounce from that. But in his two MVP seasons, Brady was lapping the field at Halloween, and was mostly undistinguished in the colder months.

The Patriots are also a consistently strong road team this time of year, for what it's worth.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=Chico23231;1043317]So last night was the coldest game in New England in 20 years and 34/50 344 yards and 3 Tds outplaying his biggest rival...I dont know, thats kinda ballin in the cold.[/quote]Brady played well + it was cold is not the same as Brady always plays well in the cold, which isn't true.

If you look only at home games vs. Manning in cold weather months, you get a very different picture than if you look only at all games against the Jets and Ravens in cold months. The complete picture is what is important, and that lies somewhere in the middle.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043319]I'm passing this off as an effect on the way Belichick builds his teams, because we know offensive numbers leaguewide decline as the weather does. Brady isn't immune to this effect, as best evidenced by his postseason numbers. But any "cold weather" split is going to be somewhat arbitrary.

The Patriots have been a consistently better team late in the season than early in the season, and I'm assuming that Brady's numbers get a bounce from that. But in his two MVP seasons, Brady was lapping the field at Halloween, and was mostly undistinguished in the colder months.

The Patriots are also a consistently strong road team this time of year, for what it's worth.[/quote]

Every QB struggles in the Postseason, that is more due to the fact that you play quality defenses in the postseason, seeing as how only the best teams that year make the playoffs. Even in the postseason Brady has been pretty good throwing 40 plus touchdowns. Brady has both the wins and the stats to prove that he is a great cold weather QB

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043321]Every QB struggles in the Postseason, that is more due to the fact that you play quality defenses in the postseason, seeing as how only the best teams that year make the playoffs. Even in the postseason Brady has been pretty good throwing 40 plus touchdowns. Brady has both the wins and the stats to prove that he is a great cold weather QB[/quote]I agree with both your premises, but disagree with your conclusion.

But I think you might be saying that Brady is great in cold weather relative to his competition, which is fine. So is Manning, Rodgers, and all the top QBs.

The conclusion I'm rejecting is that QB x (in this case Brady) is a great cold weather QB because he's immune to conditions. I would be more accepting of a conclusion that a player is still pretty good in spite of conditions (and improved defenses). But I feel like the "Brady is a great cold weather QB" narrative spills very quickly into "he isn't like everyone else in cold weather."

Relatively speaking, Brady plays pretty well in the conditions. And I think Manning does as well. Because they are really good at what they do.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043322]I agree with both your premises, but disagree with your conclusion.

But I think you might be saying that Brady is great in cold weather relative to his competition, which is fine. So is Manning, Rodgers, and all the top QBs.

The conclusion I'm rejecting is that QB x (in this case Brady) is a great cold weather QB because he's immune to conditions. I would be more accepting of a conclusion that a player is still pretty good in spite of conditions (and improved defenses). But I feel like the "Brady is a great cold weather QB" narrative spills very quickly into "he isn't like everyone else in cold weather."

Relatively speaking, Brady plays pretty well in the conditions. And I think Manning does as well. Because they are really good at what they do.[/quote]

I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]

You're getting sucked into a black hole you won't be able to get out of. Abort now!

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]It's a tough argument to prove one way or other other, because of sample sizes.

Because his contemporaries are Manning and Brees, it gets even harder to prove such a thing, because both play the vast majority of their games in warm weather. If Rodgers, Eli, Roethisberger or Cutler had more career overlap, this would be an easier thing to look at.

I happen to think it's a weaker argument, but I'm also attributing a lot of his statistics to his teammates and coaches, which is also a weak argument.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=SmootSmack;1043325]You're getting sucked into a black hole you won't be able to get out of. Abort now![/quote]You seem to have a different view of the purpose of the workday than the rest of us.

But no, I'm out of fresh takes on this one.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043323]I am saying he is better than others in cold weather. Stats and wins prove this to be true.[/quote]


It's hard to go against guys who play in this type of weather a lot (Rodgers/Brady) and are used to brutal cold days on the football field. I can believe those stats, and I'd have no beef with the statement that Brady is better on cold day games than Manning. Think Manning is still used to that cushy dome back in Indy.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=donofriose;1043303]Much of what Manning has done his entire career has been because he has played with some of the best receiving corps in the NFL, especially this year. We cannot give Manning credit when his receivers are balling and then exclude him when he doesn't perform at his usual level even though his receivers didn't play well either. There were a couple of throws that were not Manning type throws. I think he got too caught up with Passing last night and they would have won the game if they kept the ball on the ground in key situations. In the end, like you said, Tom Brady simply was better than Manning last night.

The Patriots made a great comeback. The only reason the Broncos were up 24-0 was because of an epic collapse of the Patriots the first quarter, the only reason the Patriots came back was because of an epic collapse of the Broncos in the 3rd quarter.[/quote]

I can't argue that, but is it because the WRs are that good or because the QBs make the WR? I'm not one to give all the glory to QBs so I'm not excluding him on that loss last night. He provided a critical INT that helped their demise on offense. To me, I think the officials were letting too much go in the secondary in terms of PI (on both sides). They probably should have been on top of that crap from the get go, or dont' bother throwing any flags at all. Too much inconsistency with the calls or non-calls last night.

Here is the problem with keeping the ball on the ground (which I agree with), is that you had two guys they have no confidence in whatsoever behind Moreno. Both Ball and Anderson fumbled last night, with Anderson's being in OT. Neither one of them played after that. Tell you what though, Moreno flat out balled last night and he's about the only one that can walk out with his head high. (Tamme and Miller as well)

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

The stats and wins do agree on one thing though: Joe Flacco is the best, ever.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=NC_Skins;1043330]Here is the problem with keeping the ball on the ground (which I agree with), is that you had two guys they have no confidence in whatsoever behind Moreno. Both Ball and Anderson fumbled last night, with Anderson's being in OT. Neither one of them played after that. Tell you what though, Moreno flat out balled last night and he's about the only one that can walk out with his head high. (Tamme and Miller as well)[/quote]Can you think of another player like Moreno in recent memory? Someone who spends four full seasons as a draft bust, and then comes back in year 5 and is one of the best in the league at the position? Moreno seems to defy comparison.

Re: Around the NFL Week 12
 

[quote=GTripp0012;1043332]Can you think of another player like Moreno in recent memory? Someone who spends four full seasons as a draft bust, and then comes back in year 5 and is one of the best in the league at the position? Moreno seems to defy comparison.[/quote]

Someone the other day just talked about Moreno being the 2nd most important player on the team. If he's going to miss any time, it's going to suck for Denver