Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[QUOTE=GhettoDogAllStars;368191]I think anything over 14 is a little unreasonable. This is NFL after all. Yes the Pats beat every team they have played by 2 TDs or more, but could you predict that? Would anyone have bet money that the Pats would have done that at the beginning of the year? Only the most extreme homers would. Is anyone willing to predict that the Pats will continue this production for the entire year? It's simple: it is FAR more likely that the Pats will NOT do this for every remaining game in the season, than otherwise.

I'm sorry, but I'm in the "any given Sunday" camp. I truly believe that [I]every[/I] team has a chance to beat [I]any[/I] other team, [I]any[/I] given week.[/QUOTE]

And that's my point, really. Double-digit spread used to be rare, and anything more than two touchdowns usually involved an injury-depleted Cleveland team. No slight on the Pats at all, but we've got a winning record in a tough division, and the #5 defense in the league. I expect to be big underdogs. I don't expect Christians vs. Lions, and that's what 16½ is.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[QUOTE=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;368107]I think it is pretty unlikely the Redskins will score more than 24-27 points against the Pats, but I don't think you are giving our defense the respect it has earned. Every team that goes against us says, after the game, that our defense was the best they'd faced. They are causing a lot of turnovers, allowing few points, hitting pretty damn hard, and [I]are allowing the fewest yards per play in the entire NFL[/I]. I have a lot of respect for your offense and suspect that it will score a lot of points, but I don't think you're paying close attention to what our defense can do.[/QUOTE]

Sheriff I have a lot of respect for the skins secondary,but the D cant be on the field for 60 min. unless the offense starts moving the ball the pats are gonna end up with 80+ offensive plays

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[QUOTE=Chief X_Phackter;368241]16 or 17 points is reasonable considering Vegas.

However,

The Pats have played against defenses currently ranked the following:

32nd (Cleveland)
31st (Buffalo)
29th (Cincinnati)
28th (NY Jets)
27th(Miami)
16th (Cincinnati)
and
7th (Dallas)

Washington would probably be 7-0 too.

IMO they will probably be looking past Washington to their matchup with Indy the following week...it happens, especially since Indy has beat them the past three meetings (by the way Indy is 11-0 going back to last year).

I think Washington will surprise and frustrate them in the first half and keep it close. The second half is anyone's guess. All I can say is they better do a better job of making adjustments (or sticking to what is working) in the second half of this game, or the Pats will run away with it in the end. I hope this is the week the offense begins to click. It has been proven twice (really three times) that our defense can't keep us in the game for four quarters.[/QUOTE]

what were the defenses ranked before they played the pats?

If the pats drop 380 yards on the skins where will they be ranked come monday

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

if no one else moves in the rankings and the pats do put up 380yds the skins would drop from 5th to 6th in total defense.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=chris66;368351]what were the defenses ranked before they played the pats?

If the pats drop 380 yards on the skins where will they be ranked come monday[/quote]
certainly not 28th-32nd

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

I have a crazy formula for figuring out game scores. It is not an exact science. I am not trying to gain favor from anyone nor piss anyone off. I am just putting it out there.
According to the formula Pats 27.3 Skins 18.7

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

I remember in '83? (when we set the points record) that we hadn't been favored by more than 10 until we blew out the Rams on MNF. Then the spreads shot up, and I remember we were favored by 14.5 over Philly that year (cause I lost some money:-(

The offense can get untracked 'cause I think they know they can't win this if they stay conservative. Playing keep-away by running 3 plays worth of time off the clock won't work against this team. I hope they go back to high-percentage quick passes, especially on first down. As I've said in another post, they seem to be successful with it. I hope they don't try to air it out very much, 'cause they're not getting reliable yardage per play and they frequently need 3 downs to get the first. In addition, JC's long ball needs some work (no hang time.)

If the offense can hang in there and the DBs (esp. Springs) are able to play we might do respectably.
Of course, if Brady gets all day...

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

Is it Sunday yet?

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

I like our Defense..... No way we don't cover.... The Patriots are due a let down ....Gibbs wants this.... The old Championship Gibbs comes through....... WE could even win this... Lets hope Brady's head continues to grow.... Easy game Brady...think that way.......:rolleyes:

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=angryssg;368368]I have a crazy formula for figuring out game scores. It is not an exact science. I am not trying to gain favor from anyone nor piss anyone off. I am just putting it out there.
According to the formula Pats 27.3 Skins 18.7[/quote]

Did you derive your formula from Jsarno's roullette strategy?

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;368011]48 o/u.[/QUOTE]


If I was a betting man, I would want to bet Redskins and Under. I would aslo probably owe some Money come Monday morning.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=Chief X_Phackter;368241]The Pats have played against defenses currently ranked the following:

32nd (Cleveland)
31st (Buffalo)
29th (Cincinnati)
28th (NY Jets)
27th(Miami)
16th (Cincinnati)
and
7th (Dallas)

Washington would probably be 7-0 too.[/quote]

San Diego is 16

They played Week2

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

use common sense and take the pats and the over...

then if the skins win you're happy to lose that money.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=Schneed10;368469]Did you derive your formula from Jsarno's roullette strategy?[/quote]


LOL.....

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=Schneed10;368469]Did you derive your formula from Jsarno's roullette strategy?[/quote]


Nope, but it has me correctly picking the point spread of over 64% of games on a weekly basis. (Thus Far)

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=chris66;368351]what were the defenses ranked before they played the pats?

If the pats drop 380 yards on the skins where will they be ranked come monday[/quote]


I'm not sure what they were ranked before the Pats.

Really, you think one game determines the ranking seven games into the season. Sorry, but you are giving the Pats too much credit.

To answer your question, if the Pats drop 380 yards on the Skins, they will still be in the top 10.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

Shocking news - according to an offshore site I just checked, the line has dropped to 14½. I frankly would have thought this would go in the other direction.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

[quote=BrudLee;369365]Shocking news - according to an offshore site I just checked, the line has dropped to 14½. I frankly would have thought this would go in the other direction.[/quote]

I'm less surprised. 16 points is a colossal spread for an NFL game. I suspect the late money is the smart money.

Re: Early Line for Wash/NE Game
 

Just out of curiosity, are any of you aware of the purpose of a point-spread? To get an equal amount of money bet on each side of the game. All the casino wants is to make the 10% vig, that is enough to keep them in business. Keep in mind, A LOT of people are not convinced the Redskins are any good. The Cowboys, who most consider a better team, got lit up in Dallas. A lesser team going into New England? The money is going to come in heavy on New England. Since the line moved a full point, it shows the large spread didn't scare away the New England money.