Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=CultBrennan59;870435]Ok if I came up to you and said lets go back to the future and I'll give you the opportunity to get Peyton Manning with the first pick, but you have to give me 3 first rounders, would you do it?

Thats how people are viewing/treating this Luck kid (and pick)[/quote]That's stupid.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;870353]If the Rams get the #1 pick, I think we will pull the trigger on the [B]Bradford[/B] trade.[/quote]

Fixed that for you.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

So give up the equivalent of Orakpo, T.Williams, and Kerrigan?

Tough call, I can see it both ways. The three above are our foundation for the next decade, but -- an elite franchise QB like Peyton, Brees, Brady, Rodgers == Super Bowls. Problem is, we don't know if Luck is truly one of the above, or just a Hasselback, McNabb, or Sanchez.

If I had confidence our staff could pick up a gem like Rodgers/Brady outside the top 15, then it would be clear... But we've missed on McNabb, Beck, Grossman recently, and trading for Luck would increase our probability of success. Also, Shanahan has displayed remarkable ability to pick gems in later rounds for other positions, perhaps we could compensate for not having first rounders by drafting well in the later rounds..

Anyway -- my gut tells me that it is not worth it. Would make more sense to either trade down and try for Landry Jones (?), a FA like ?Flynn/etc, or even RG3 (although my gut thinks RG3 will be a bust).

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

If another team throws in a ton of picks to trade for Luck, more power to them. Show me another team that wish they had made the Julio Jones trade for their own team. Now, will Luck be able to handle the pressure of a team giving up so much for him?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=NC_Skins;870440]Fixed that for you.[/quote]

Don't fix what isn't broken.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=CultBrennan59;870435]Ok if I came up to you and said lets go back to the future and I'll give you the opportunity to get Peyton Manning with the first pick, but you have to give me 3 first rounders, would you do it?

Thats how people are viewing/treating this Luck kid (and pick)[/quote]

How do you go BACK to the future??

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;870444]How do you go BACK to the future??[/quote]

Thinking of the movie series...**Time**

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Landry44;870336]I don't think people are considering the risk with investing so much in one player. I know he's been hyped up to be a once in a generation type of player. He's going to have a lot of pressure on him to produce right away which I think he can under the right circumstances. I don't think we have the players on this team right now for him to be successful right away. The way I look at it, this team needs at least two more good drafts to be a consistent winner; not just one player. Giving up three first rounders will set us back for years even if Luck turns out to be who many believe he will be. We all know we need franchise guy to be a consistent winner. You also need quality guys around him and depth. Mortgaging away the next three drafts is not smart move when you can draft a guy and develop him. Now there are some trades that we should consider, but three first rounders is not one of them.[/quote]

I totally agree. I just dont think the Skins can afford to give up so much for 1 unproven player. The biggest problem with the Skins is depth and thats built through the draft.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Lotus;870367]I get what you are saying. If you leave out the fact that Jones is a WR, the point remains that you get what you pay for. And if you want a once-in-a-generation QB, you have to pay big.

Of course, the flip side of the Jones scenario is that the Browns have 2 first rounders this year, making it tough to outbid them if they are fervent after Luck.[/quote]

How do you know he's a once in a generation QB? He does look good but that in college which may or may not translate to the pros.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;870444]How do you go BACK to the future??[/quote]

With this. Duh.

[IMG]http://narbrew.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/fluxcapacitor.jpg[/IMG]

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

I admire Andrew Luck, but there is another option other than him. The Redskins can do one of two things to land the quarterback that they want. Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan can either send the Rams their 1st and 2nd round selections in both 2012 and 2013, and a conditional pick in 2014 and take Luck. Or Allen and Shanahan can send only their 1st and 2nd rounders to the Vikings or the Colts to trade to the #2 or #3 spots and select RG3. With RG3, they still would still have to pay for the selection, but at least they won't have to sacrifice the future. With Luck, it would be totally the opposite.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

MS knows this team and knows we need a couple more drafts to "rebuild" our roster. Throwing away picks is a major gamble. Of course if you knew that Luck was going to be another top 5 QB in the league you would take it. The fact is you don't. Do we want to take that gamble, i'm not sure. It's a tough call.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=irish;870447]How do you know he's a once in a generation QB? He does look good but that in college which may or may not translate to the pros.[/quote]

Of course no one KNOWS that and therein lies the rub. There's risk but also reward here. He is well worth the risk if he is a rare QB. If we trade multiple picks and he sucks, then we're screwed for a long time. Personally I'd like to take the risk.

But this is a hypothetical thread about events which likely won't happen. Most likely Tannehill becomes our QB and I'm ok with that.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Lotus;870516]Of course no one KNOWS that and therein lies the rub. There's risk but also reward here. He is well worth the risk if he is a rare QB. If we trade multiple picks and he sucks, then we're screwed for a long time. Personally I'd like to take the risk.

But this is a hypothetical thread about events which likely won't happen. Most likely Tannehill becomes our QB and I'm ok with that.[/quote]

There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=irish;870533]There is risk and reward but the problem is that the loss of the draft picks is certain (100%) while the probability of the reward equalling or exceeding that loss is very small (maybe 10%). I just dont think that kind of risk to reward ratio is one any rational thinker would accept.[/quote]

Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Lotus;870537]Well, if you are going to set the reward at only 10%, then you are correct that it is not worth it. Many folks see the reward at much higher than a 10% likelihood, however.[/quote]

I mean the odds of the reward paying off with respect to was is given up. So what I am saying is that the odds of him producing at a level equal to or greater than the 3 draft picks given up is 10%. Heck even if nothing is given up for him the chance he will be even a decent pro QB is maybe 40% tops.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

You bring up a great point Irish. How much difference would 3 first round draft picks make to any team?
.....substantial

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=irish;870446]I totally agree. I just dont think the Skins can afford to give up so much for 1 unproven player. The biggest problem with the Skins is depth and thats built through the draft.[/quote]

For years this team has tried to skip pass the building process and make huge offseason slashes weather it was in free agency or in the draft. What this team must do now the same thing we did in 2010 draft. We need to aquire as many picks as we can and get better on both sides of the ball. We don't need just one player. I also don't buy this idea that it's one qb in this draft that we must have. I love Luck and RG3, however, there are other guys in this draft if put in the right situation can get the job done.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Landry44;870541]For years this team has tried to skip pass the building process and make huge offseason slashes weather it was in free agency or in the draft. What this team must do now the same thing we did in 2010 draft. We need to aquire as many picks as we can and get better on both sides of the ball. We don't need just one player. I also don't buy this idea that it's one qb in this draft that we must have. I love Luck and RG3, however, there are other guys in this draft if put in the right situation can get the job done.[/quote]

You make too much sense.

It's funny how you hear the media/some fans who ranted about the previous regime but yet still want a quick fix right now.

If Tannehill or Foles impress in the combine we might be better served w/ that approach. If RG111, declares it could be interesting though. We'll know alot more after the combine though. I don't know much about Foles, but I've heard some good comments about him too.

We'll see but you are right, another draft like last year will do us well.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

What is Andrew Luck worth?
I suppose the answer to that is relative: are you one super player away from greatness or 10 players away...

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Take this in consideration as well; the Skins surely won't be in a position to draft Barkley next year either.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

We have quite a few holes, giving up alot for a QB was how we use to think. Whatever the FO thinks I'll role with.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Two great posts back to back here.

1st- I've been saying it numerous times and I'll say it again; If you hit on the right QB in the draft, suddenly a lot of those weaknesses on your team go away.

2nd- Barkley, your correct, will not be in our plans next year, we A) can't wait that long/nor can shanahan, to draft a QB, and I think the Browns will draft him next year or the Seahawks.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Even as sure of a thing as Manning was and has been in his career there have been other QB's that have stepped in and improved their teams considerably and some of them even have more rings than Manning. Just someting to think about when talking about "sure things". I think trading 3 1st rounders for anyone is going to set you behind in some way.

I wouldn't trade three 1s but two yes I would

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Luck fits Shanahan's Scheme to a T. Mobile, throws good on the run, ran a pro play action heavy O in college, and comes from the same college as the only qb to ever get a ring for Shannahan.

I'm willing to give 3 1st rounders for him. 2012 is basically just switching picks, 2013, and then swap our 1st for their 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2014. We would probably have to give a couple more picks or players in there as well.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinItup;870570]Luck fits Shanahan's Scheme to a [b]T. Mobile[/b], throws good on the run, ran a pro play action heavy O in college, and comes from the same college as the only qb to ever get a ring for Shannahan.
[/quote]

lol I see what you did there! unintentional probably but still funny.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

#1- I think it's a lot to give up but if most everything is already in place and all the team needs is a top notch QB then I'm in, however most of us here would agree "most everything" is not in place. WR could be taken in the second round, we might find a FS in later rounds, Jenkins will be back and hopefully healthy which basically acts like another draft pick.

I'll get killed for this but defensively I'm happy where we are at. There is always room for imporvement but I like how our defense has played keeping teams scores low. I see the same teams playing elsewhere putting up a lot of points and the Skins hold them to around 20 or less. I think with Jenkins and a FS and maybe a CB the defense might be a ton better.

Offensively (other then QB) a #1 WR is a need. We have FB Young but picking up another FB might be in order. I like our TE's so I might go with OL as long as the RB's can come back healthy. So ...

Defensive: FS, CB
Offensive: WR, FB, OL, and of course QB.

If the team can get Luck (which I can't even figure out any reason the Colts would not pick him or would trade away the pick) for 3 first rounders then I guess I would be OK with it but only if they turned the other picks into 12 picks again. Either draft a top notch WR in the second round or trade back for more picks and do the same with the 3rd rounder... pick a position of need or trade back for more picks. In a nutshell the team has to get better protection for whoever is in at QB and give them better weapons to get the ball to.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SBXVII;870623]#1- I think it's a lot to give up but if most everything is already in place and all the team needs is a top notch QB then I'm in, however most of us here would agree "most everything" is not in place. [/quote]

Actually, you assume when you draft the QB he will hit his potential around years 3-5 (see A.Rodgers, A.Smith, M.Stafford, etc). It does not make sense to draft a QB for a team ready to win-now --> that team would go with a FA QB. This is what happened with the NY Jets, who would have benefited from a veteran QB instead of Sanchez for the past few years. Even exceptions like Cam Newton & Matt Ryan will reach full potential only after a few years.


Drafting a QB may make sense for a team ready to compete within the next 3-5 years, which is exactly what we are.
I'm starting to think we're not going to be able to get the top QBs at pick 7, esp if the Colts & even Cleveland pick up QBs. We may need to pick up a veteran FA instead..

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Bruce Allen has to make something happen. He has to reach a deal to bring in a young QB. A projected 1st rounder like RG3 or Luck. I'm getting sick of the Redskins bringing in other teams QBs- Brad Johnson 1999- Mark Brunell 2005 Todd Collins 2006- Donovan McNabb 2010. Neither of these QBs with the exception of Brunell was a Washington Redskin more than three years. Brunell 4 years. Collins 3 years. Johnson 2 years. McNabb 1 year. No more trading for veteran QBs or signing them through free agency.

Bruce Allen has to be taking a painstaking look at Griffin III and Andrew Luck right now- seeing how either one of them can make the Redskins better on offense. He also has to be talking to teams right now who will be slated to draft in the top 3 to find out what must be done to strike a deal.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Dogtag;870544]What is Andrew Luck worth?
I suppose the answer to that is relative: are you one super player away from greatness or 10 players away...[/quote]

The redskins are 10 players away from being consistently competitive which is why they cant trade 3 picks for an unproven college player.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=irish;870649]The redskins are 10 players away from being consistently competitive which is why they cant trade 3 picks for an unproven college player.[/quote]

Harsh reality or exaggeration?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=diehard;870650]Harsh reality or exaggeration?[/quote]

Unfortunately its reality.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

I'd say a little of both.

I don't think we're that far off from being a good team.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

What if you could, and listen this is a longshot I know, but what if you could trade for Luck without giving up your first round pick in 2012. The Rams are known to be in need of an LT to protect their QB and a 4-3 DE to help Chris Long.

So Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo, and some later year first round picks for Luck at #1. At #7 you can maybe move down a bit and get someone like Reiff or even Luck's Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin to be your LT. Don't know who would replace Orakpo.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SmootSmack;870719]What if you could, and listen this is a longshot I know, but what if you could trade for Luck without giving up your first round pick in 2012. The Rams are known to be in need of an LT to protect their QB and a 4-3 DE to help Chris Long.

So Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo, and some later year first round picks for Luck at #1. At #7 you can maybe move down a bit and get someone like Reiff or even Luck's Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin to be your LT. Don't know who would replace Orakpo.[/quote]


I wouldn't do that, Rak and TW are key players at huge positions to lose.. I'd just assume draft Tannehill or RG3 if thats the case

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=irish;870649]The redskins are 10 players away from being consistently competitive which is why they cant trade 3 picks for an unproven college player.[/quote]

So, beside Roy Helu, we need a QB, WR, LT, LG, C, RG, RT, TE, and another WR on offense, then a CB?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

How bout give STL The number 7 overall pick, Next years 1st and next years 3rd and call it even?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SmootSmack;870719]What if you could, and listen this is a longshot I know, but what if you could trade for Luck without giving up your first round pick in 2012. The Rams are known to be in need of an LT to protect their QB and a 4-3 DE to help Chris Long.

So Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo, and some later year first round picks for Luck at #1. At #7 you can maybe move down a bit and get someone like Reiff or even Luck's Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin to be your LT. Don't know who would replace Orakpo.[/quote]

I would totally be fine with that. No problem whatsoever. Trent is one toke away from being irrelevant in the nfl and orakpo is pretty overrated as it is. I'd do that in a heartbeat.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SmootSmack;870719]What if you could, and listen this is a longshot I know, but what if you could trade for Luck without giving up your first round pick in 2012. The Rams are known to be in need of an LT to protect their QB and a 4-3 DE to help Chris Long.

So Trent Williams, Brian Orakpo, and some later year first round picks for Luck at #1. At #7 you can maybe move down a bit and get someone like Reiff or even Luck's Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin to be your LT. Don't know who would replace Orakpo.[/quote]

I couldn't give up Brian Orakpo. After Trent Williams puff, puff, pass ordeal, I'm not as high on him (no pun intended) as I used to be. This would be taken a huge chance, but I'd put Fred Davis in that list with the hopes that Chris Cooley could recover and be close to what he used to be. It would be difficult for the Rams to not give Sam Bradford another good weapon to throw to.