Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Well apparently we finally have an idea of the asking price. Per Adam S.

[QUOTE]Q: If the St. Louis Rams "win" the first overall pick, should they draft Andrew Luck or trade that pick away and stick with Sam Bradford?

-- Jimmy (Missouri)

A: One of the great questions of the offseason, Jimmy, and one that will be in play every day if the Indianapolis Colts beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday and St. Louis loses to the San Francisco 49ers. My early read on it is that St. Louis would wind up trading the No. 1 overall pick for a bounty of picks -- [B]my guess is three first-round picks and two second-round picks[/B], which by the way, also happens to be the exact price the Colts were asking and could have gotten for the John Elway pick in 1983 before Robert Irsay made a deal on his own without his general manager, Ernie Accorsi. So assuming the Rams could get a bounty of picks -- and they can -- then that would be my guess as to the route they'd go. They'd use all those picks to surround Sam Bradford with the type of supporting cast he hasn't had the past two seasons. Guess we'll find out Sunday whether this is the question that will be asked every day until April.[/QUOTE]

So with that said how comfortable would you be with three first round picks and two 2nd round picks in exchange for Luck? In a sense thats trading Williams, Orakpo, Kerrigan, Devin Thomas, and Jarvis Jenkins for a guy you expect to be the next Peyton Manning.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;870994]if youre looking at potential, you need to compare their potential now vs. the potential that sanchez had when he was in college. otherwise you arent comparing apples ot apples. Other than Luck, i dont think any of the others will come close to the level of success that sanchez has already had. you also have to consider how unbalanced the jets offense is.[/quote]

That's bad logic. You compare what you see Sanchez ceiling to be to the ceiling of the draftee. You just have a better idea of Sanchez because he has actually played in the nfl.

Sanchez would be an upgrade for us, but not much of one. He plays with two good wr (maybe the best 1 and 2 wr combo in the league) and still can't do much. What will he do with Moss and Gaffney?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;870996]Case in point trading up: the Jets traded up to get Sanchez but don't you think they would have been better off drafting Freeman and keeping the picks they traded?[/quote]That would be an understatement at this point. Freeman won't turn 24 for a month and he's already more accomplished than Sanchez as a pro passer.

Same thing with Eli Manning/Philip Rivers.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;871109]Well apparently we finally have an idea of the asking price. Per Adam S.



So with that said how comfortable would you be with three first round picks and two 2nd round picks in exchange for Luck? In a sense thats trading Williams, Orakpo, Kerrigan, Devin Thomas, and Jarvis Jenkins for a guy you expect to be the next Peyton Manning.[/quote]

That's keeping things in perspective, good and bad.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Dirtbag59;871109]Well apparently we finally have an idea of the asking price. Per Adam S.



So with that said how comfortable would you be with three first round picks and two 2nd round picks in exchange for Luck? In a sense thats trading Williams, Orakpo, Kerrigan, Devin Thomas, and Jarvis Jenkins for a guy you expect to be the next Peyton Manning.[/quote]

Or how about saying you are trading Fred Davis instead of Devin Thomas?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=CultBrennan59;870992]It's off of potential. I'll take flynn who showed he's been great in one start than Sanchez whose running game, OL, WR's, and Defense have taken him to all those wins in the playoffs. Sanchez has been in the league in 3 years, and hasn't showed me anything that makes me go, 'he's a great qb that i'd want on my team.' No no. And the Rookies are on upside/potential.[/quote]

I think people are putting way too much into one good game Flynn has had. I hope he get significant playing time this weekend and let's see what he does.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinItup;871112]That's bad logic. You compare what you see Sanchez ceiling to be to the ceiling of the draftee. You just have a better idea of Sanchez because he has actually played in the nfl.

Sanchez would be an upgrade for us, but not much of one. He plays with two good wr (maybe the best 1 and 2 wr combo in the league) and still can't do much. What will he do with Moss and Gaffney?[/quote]

The best 1 and 2 WR in the league? I don't know about that. Holmes is solid but he's constantly getting double teamed because Plax, who hadn't played football in over 2 years, has shown little to no ability to get any separation though he has improved. They miss Braylon, a healthy Braylon.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SirClintonPortis;871009]2nd round pick Brian Brohm was expunged from the Packers instead of Flynn precisely because Flynn performed better than Brohm, draft pick status be damned.[/quote]

All that tells me is that Brohm was a bust. Not sure being better then brohm makes him a franchise QB.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;871115]That would be an understatement at this point. Freeman won't turn 24 for a month and he's already more accomplished than Sanchez as a pro passer.

Same thing with Eli Manning/Philip Rivers.[/quote]Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871172]Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.[/quote]

I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
Trent Green
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871198]I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
Trent Green
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman[/quote]

How dare you leave out the Danny Wuerffel and Tim Hasselbeck eras!

Seriously though, this is a great list demonstrating that regardless of how we acquired them, we've settled for two decades at that position. We are still smarting from the Heath Shuler draft and have seemingly been gun shy to make a move again at an elite prospect. The time has come. Make the move for Luck or RGIII.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Paintrain;871201]How dare you leave out the Danny Wuerffel and Tim Hasselbeck eras!

Seriously though, this is a great list demonstrating that regardless of how we acquired them, we've settled for two decades at that position. We are still smarting from the Heath Shuler draft and have seemingly been gun shy to make a move again at an elite prospect. The time has come. Make the move for Luck or RGIII.[/quote]

My apologies. I forgot about Hasselbeck and tried to for get about 'ol Whiffelball. Don't forget Bradford in that list to make a move for. I still contend he has the most upside for the least cost for us if St. Louis gets the #1 pick and is willing to deal.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

Go Colts! Go Niners!

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Lotus;871205]Go Colts! Go Niners![/quote]

HA HA HA, but you're right.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

I would prefer Bradford, if all we had to do was give up our 2012 1st round pick.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=NYCskinfan82;871210]I would prefer Bradford, if all we had to do was give up our 2012 1st round pick.[/quote]

It's going to be really interesting the direction the Rams go if they are in that position. It comes down to do you want to try to build the 90's Cowboys way with a bevy of picks and a slightly tarnished QB prospect or build from scratch with an elite QB prospect and a few additional picks to surround him with.

Dealing Bradford may be the best of both worlds. Getting Luck plus at least 3 top 90 picks over the next 2 drafts (a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year is the likely Bradford price).

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Paintrain;871213]It's going to be really interesting the direction the Rams go if they are in that position. It comes down to do you want to try to build the 90's Cowboys way with a bevy of picks and a slightly tarnished QB prospect or build from scratch with an elite QB prospect and a few additional picks to surround him with.

Dealing Bradford may be the best of both worlds. Getting Luck plus at least 3 top 90 picks over the next 2 drafts [B](a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year is the likely Bradford price[/B]).[/quote]


Yeah that probably would be the asking price, I would do it based on 2011 draft we would probably trade back and get those picks back.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Paintrain;871213]It's going to be really interesting the direction the Rams go if they are in that position. It comes down to do you want to try to build the 90's Cowboys way with a bevy of picks and a slightly tarnished QB prospect or build from scratch with an elite QB prospect and a few additional picks to surround him with.

Dealing Bradford may be the best of both worlds. Getting Luck plus at least 3 top 90 picks over the next 2 drafts (a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year is the likely Bradford price).[/quote]

Where did you come up with that Bradford price? Personal speculation or did you read that somewhere? I love Bradford still but it seems a little steep to me after the year he had. His 1st 2 years are slightly disappointing yet they would be trading him for increased value. Doesn't add up to me.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871198]I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:

Heath Shuler
Gus Frerotte
[B]Trent Green[/B]
Brad Johnson
Tony Banks
Shane Matthews
Patrick Ramsey
Mark Brunell
Jason Campbell
Donovan McNabb
Rex Grossman
John Beck
Rex Grossman[/quote]


What could have been if we kept Trent...

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=celts32;871218]Where did you come up with that Bradford price? Personal speculation or did you read that somewhere? I love Bradford still but it seems a little steep to me after the year he had. His 1st 2 years are slightly disappointing yet they would be trading him for increased value. Doesn't add up to me.[/quote]

Personal speculation.. You have to think you're getting a QB less than 25 yrs old who had a strong rookie year, injury, new system and limited weapons impacted his effectiveness in 2011 but no major red flags about his ability arose. Two firsts is too steep but three top 90 picks is reasonable. Just my speculation though. Honestly, I doubt they move him but it all comes down to the new coach.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;871221]What could have been if we kept Trent...[/quote]Yup, and Brad Johnson won a superbowl.
From the list that has nothing to do with my point:
Campbell has been better then McNabb who was better then Rex.

[quote=SkinzWin;871198]I'll take my chances instead of continuing this legacy:[/quote]Huh?
What do the QBs on that list have to do with trading multiple first round draft picks in exchange for 1 first round pick (Luck/Griffin)?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=Paintrain;871223]Personal speculation.. You have to think you're getting a QB less than 25 yrs old who had a strong rookie year, injury, new system and limited weapons impacted his effectiveness in 2011 but no major red flags about his ability arose. Two firsts is too steep but three top 90 picks is reasonable. Just my speculation though. Honestly, I doubt they move him but it all comes down to the new coach.[/quote]

Fair enough. And if push came to shove and Luck or RG3 were not an option I would certainly pay that price. Just hoping we could get him for a little less I guess. Also how high the skins pick ends up being will affect the price also. If we pick 4th we would probably need to add a little less to the trade then we would if our pick falls to 10 or 11.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

All St. Louis would get from me if they were gonna deal Bradford is a 1st and I wouldn't wanna give them that.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871226]Yup, and Brad Johnson won a superbowl.
From the list that has nothing to do with my point:
Campbell has been better then McNabb who was better then Rex.

Huh?
What do the QBs on that list have to do with trading multiple first round draft picks in exchange for 1 first round pick (Luck/Griffin)?[/quote]

My point is that most of those starters have not been good to be polite about it. That's why we've had so many at such a high turn over rate. And I'm tired of it year after year after year. And I am ready to make the leap for a big time QB prospect and see how we fair instead of trading for old vets and overpriced aging FA's.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871236]My point is that most of those starters have not been good to be polite about it. That's why we've had so many at such a high turn over rate. And I'm tired of it year after year after year. And I am ready to make the leap for a big time QB prospect and see how we fair instead of trading for old vets and overpriced aging FA's.[/quote]But those QBs have nothing to do with my post or with my point.
We all want a superbowl caliber QB.

But trading multiple 1st round picks to acquire 1 first round pick doesn't increases your chances of that QB panning out.
The chances are the same.
Except that when you trade multiple 1st round picks you make your [I][B]team [/B][/I]weaker all for the sake of drafting a QB that may not even turn out to be the best QB in the draft class, let alone pan out.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871238]But those QBs have nothing to do with my post or with my point.
We all want a superbowl caliber QB.

[B]But trading multiple 1st round picks to acquire 1 first round pick doesn't increases your chances of that QB panning out.[/B]
The chances are the same.
Except that when you trade multiple 1st round picks you make your [I][B]team [/B][/I]weaker all for the sake of drafting a QB that may not even turn out to be the best QB in the draft class, let alone pan out.[/quote]

I disagree. I think of a high caliber 1st round QB draftee doing well for a team is a lot higher probability than having a continuous turn over of QB's via signing old veterans in FA or trading away picks for old vets (McNabb). The exception in my list is Campbell as we drafted him fairly high, but you see that didn't pan out either.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871242]I disagree. I think of a high caliber 1st round QB draftee doing well for a team is a lot higher probability than having a continuous turn over of QB's via signing old veterans in FA or trading away picks for old vets (McNabb). The exception in my list is Campbell as we drafted him fairly high, but you see that didn't pan out either.[/quote]Actually you don't disagree with me because [B][I][U]again[/U][/I][/B] I'm not advocating signing a veteran FA or trading for an older vet, YOU keep bringing it up and each time I tell you the same thing: [U]it has nothing to do with my point.[/U]

My point is trading away multiple 1st round draft picks for 1 first round draft does not increase the probability for success.
Rather it [I]reduces[/I] the ability to improve the team via the draft (the draft is zero sum) and it artificially increases the pressure and importance and utter necessity for that particular draft pick to hit and hit big.

If I told you can 1 mil i cash if you hit a 3 pt shot and I gave you these 2 options:

1 shot for 1 mil

or

3 shots for 1 mil which would you take?

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871172]Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.[/quote]One thing you're going to have to put into your analysis is that the expected return of the first QB taken in any draft is much higher than of any other quarterback in the same draft. So whether that's Luck or not Luck, you're clearly better off taking the consensus best quarterback than waiting.

Obviously in some years, that will get you Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russell, but speaking in the most general terms that I can, the team with the most losses and the biggest need at quarterback is typically not going to leave the best QB on the board for later. The equation shifts if you have reason to believe the team with the top pick cannot rationally evaluate talent: then you might have reason to suspect they'll leave the best player on the board.

I am not saying that you should throw your draft board in the trash after Luck gets taken, but that there is incredible value to having that high pick that you aren't accounting for in that analysis, because it takes the limitation of having to pick through players with obvious flaws versus other positions where there is clearly more value out of the equation.

It's not inefficient to trade up in the NFL draft. If you're like the Redskins and you give away many of your picks every year, it continues an inefficient cycle, but when you isolate a single trade between two teams, the team going up in the draft is generally not giving up value. The market will adjust well to the value of draft picks.

It is inefficient, however, to not fully understand the needs and state of your own roster.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

I was really critical of the Panthers for taking Newton when they did because I knew for a fact they were leaving elite franchise performers on the draft board for a guy who was unaccomplished. And also because I thought other QBs in the class were better bets to provide value on the rookie contract.

But today, Newton v Gabbert/Locker is not a contest. Newton -- in a total upset -- has surpassed Gabbert and Locker in terms of passing accomplishments.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871248]Actually you don't disagree with me because [B][I][U]again[/U][/I][/B] I'm not advocating signing a veteran FA or trading for an older vet, YOU keep bringing it up and each time I tell you the same thing: [U]it has nothing to do with my point.[/U]

My point is trading away multiple 1st round draft picks for 1 first round draft does not increase the probability for success.
Rather it [I]reduces[/I] the ability to improve the team via the draft (the draft is zero sum) and it artificially increases the pressure and importance and utter necessity for that particular draft pick to hit and hit big.

If I told you can 1 mil i cash if you hit a 3 pt shot and I gave you these 2 options:

1 shot for 1 mil

or

3 shots for 1 mil which would you take?[/quote]

What you originally said was:

"Yet people seem to be ready, [B]no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team[/B], for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class."

The point that I was trying to make, and I apologize if I did not communicate it clearly as I admit I was rushing to write a response before I left my house, was that I believe that it is worth risking our draft picks for the #1 overall QB prospect in this draft (or trading for Bradford who is a former #1 overall pick and has great upside) as opposed to the way we HAVE run things in the PAST, which gives us most of the players on our revolving door of a QB list.

GTripp said it well when referring to the "inefficient cycle" the Redskins have been in. Acquiring over priced FA's at the end of their careers, or overpaying via trades for aging vets.

I [B]AM[/B] disagreeing with you because your initial point was an insinuation that it is not a good idea to trade all those draft picks for a guy who may not even be the best QB in the draft. That may be true but I said I am willing to take that risk to break the "inefficient cycle" we have put ourselves in by not trying to take a QB high in the first round. They are more likely to be cornerstones of a franchise than 2nd-7th round QB picks typically.

I never said you were advocating for signing a veteran FA or trading for an older vet, I am simply stating that I disagree with the notion that giving up picks for the #1 pick is bad. Especially given that the way we have been doing things the opposite way of trying to trade up to get the highest ranked QB and they have obviously not worked out since I am confident you are aware that our QB body of work has not been stellar for quite some time.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=celts32;871003]I have a hard time buying Flynn's potential. He was a 7th round draft pick for a reason. I don't see how a couple years on green bays bench and one good performance filling in has catipulted him into being a great prospect. Everyone wants to throw Brady in your face when talking about late round QB's like Flynn, but Brady is the exception not the rule.

I would not mind bringing Flynn to camp next year but I sure as heck don't want to give him a big contract and make him the starter...[/quote]

Well, if you think that Flynn is just going to show up in Redskins training camp next year because he thinks the Redskins are "way cool" and he doesn't care if they even give him a contract, then you also believe in the Tooth Fairy.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871265]GTripp said it well when referring to the "inefficient cycle" the Redskins have been in. Acquiring over priced FA's at the end of their careers, or overpaying via trades for aging vets.

I [B]AM[/B] disagreeing with you because your initial point was an insinuation that it is not a good idea to trade all those draft picks for a guy who may not even be the best QB in the draft. That may be true but I said I am willing to take that risk to break the "inefficient cycle" we have put ourselves in by not trying to take a QB high in the first round. They are more likely to be cornerstones of a franchise than 2nd-7th round QB picks typically.[/quote]Quick correction: I was trying to say that trading multiple picks to get up for one player (i.e. using the draft as an extension of free agency) would continue the inefficient cycle the Redskins have been in. It would not break it.

But I was also saying that, along the lines of what you were saying, that the expected value of the higher pick matters, and 30 Gut was glossing over that in his argument.

I'll say this: if you're talking about all players (including defensive players) in the NFL draft, it is typically not efficient to trade up from 7th to 1st and try to maximize the value of the pick. Taking BPA at 7th overall doesn't typically result in a better overall player than taking BPA at 1st overall. The difference is very small.

But when you limit the discussion to elite offensive talents at skill positions, then it makes a big difference. What got Matt Millen into trouble in Detroit is that he consistently overvalued offensive skill talent, and didn't trade up to get it. What Millen did: sit and wait to draft QB/RB/WR was actually really inefficient. He would have been better off trading up.

If he had actually taken BPA (all positions), he wouldn't have likely ended up with Mike Williams or Roy Williams on his team. But Millen identified passing offense as something he couldn't win without, and then waited around to draft it. Which did him in as GM as much as anything.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=SkinzWin;871265]What you originally said was:

"Yet people seem to be ready, [B]no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team[/B], for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class."

The point that I was trying to make, and I apologize if I did not communicate it clearly as I admit I was rushing to write a response before I left my house, was that I believe that it is worth risking our draft picks for the #1 overall QB prospect in this draft (or trading for Bradford who is a former #1 overall pick and has great upside) as opposed to the way we HAVE run things in the PAST, which gives us most of the players on our revolving door of a QB list. [/quote]That's fine, but understand that your are mixing in your own feelings about how things have been run in the past with my point.
The two are mutually exclusive.
Not trading multiple 1st round draft picks does not mean the FO is doing the same things they've done in the past.

My point is this: I don't agree its worth trading multiple first round draft picks for the top pick.
We can agree to disagree.



[quote]I [B]AM[/B] disagreeing with you because your initial point was an insinuation that it is not a good idea to trade all those draft picks for a guy who may not even be the best QB in the draft. [U][I][B]That may be true[/B][/I][/U] but I said I am willing to take that risk to break the "inefficient cycle" we have put ourselves in by not trying to take a QB high in the first round. They are more likely to be cornerstones of a franchise than 2nd-7th round QB picks typically.[/quote]You seem intent on disagreement, even though you admit above that my point may be true.

But to be clear I'm [I][B]not[/B][/I] against drafting a QB with a high pick.
I'm [I][B]not[/B][/I] against trading up to grab a QB, providing the cost is low.
*IIRC Mike Shanahan moved up to draft Cutler without giving up a 1st round draft pick*
I am against trading multiple 1st round draft picks for 1 first round pick.
Taking the 'top' rated QB prospect in the draft doesn't automatically equate to the 'best' QB in the draft.

I mentioned earlier about Sanchez vs. Freeman, GT mentioned Eli vs Ben.
Are Sanchez and Eli that much better then Freeman and Ben to warrant the draft picks spent to acquire those QBs?

By and large I don't think the talent gap between top 10 or even 1st round QBs is quite as large as the perception of the difference.

BTW-I would be happy with trading for Sam Bradford, it would require less resources and net a much more proven quantity then any QB coming out.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=30gut;871269]That's fine, but understand that your are mixing in your own feelings about how things have been run in the past with my point.
The two are mutually exclusive.
Not trading multiple 1st round draft picks does not mean the FO is doing the same things they've done in the past.

My point is this: I don't agree its worth trading multiple first round draft picks for the top pick.
We can agree to disagree.



You seem intent on disagreement, even though you admit above that my point may be true.

But to be clear I'm [I][B]not[/B][/I] against drafting a QB with a high pick.
I'm [I][B]not[/B][/I] against trading up to grab a QB, providing the cost is low.
*IIRC Mike Shanahan moved up to draft Cutler without giving up a 1st round draft pick*
I am against trading multiple 1st round draft picks for 1 first round pick.
Taking the 'top' rated QB prospect in the draft doesn't automatically equate to the 'best' QB in the draft.

I mentioned earlier about Sanchez vs. Freeman, GT mentioned Eli vs Ben.
Are Sanchez and Eli that much better then Freeman and Ben to warrant the draft picks spent to acquire those QBs?

By and large I don't think the talent gap between top 10 or even 1st round QBs is quite as large as the perception of the difference.

BTW-I would be happy with trading for Sam Bradford, it would require less resources and net a much more proven quantity then any QB coming out.[/quote]

I wasn't trying to be totally disagreeable, just makes for good discussion. I agree with you whole heartedly about the Bradford deal. However, there would have to be a lot of things to fall just perfectly for that to happen I'm afraid...

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=GTripp0012;871268]Quick correction: I was trying to say that trading multiple picks to get up for one player (i.e. using the draft as an extension of free agency) would continue the inefficient cycle the Redskins have been in. It would not break it.

But I was also saying that, along the lines of what you were saying, that the expected value of the higher pick matters, and 30 Gut was glossing over that in his argument.

I'll say this: if you're talking about all players (including defensive players) in the NFL draft, it is typically not efficient to trade up from 7th to 1st and try to maximize the value of the pick. Taking BPA at 7th overall doesn't typically result in a better overall player than taking BPA at 1st overall. The difference is very small.

But when you limit the discussion to elite offensive talents at skill positions, then it makes a big difference. What got Matt Millen into trouble in Detroit is that he consistently overvalued offensive skill talent, and didn't trade up to get it. What Millen did: sit and wait to draft QB/RB/WR was actually really inefficient. He would have been better off trading up.

If he had actually taken BPA (all positions), he wouldn't have likely ended up with Mike Williams or Roy Williams on his team. But Millen identified passing offense as something he couldn't win without, and then waited around to draft it. Which did him in as GM as much as anything.[/quote]

I see I misread your meaning of inefficient cycle. However, I think that it is plausible that getting a great top tier talent that can be the center piece of this franchise to build around on offense can stop this "inefficient cycle".

It is inefficient in my way of thinking because of the expenditure of countless picks on aged veterans who we get little to no return for. I feel that giving up picks for a elite level prospect in the draft can do just the opposite for this "inefficient cycle" by giving us a young, longterm cornerstone for the franchise. This coupled with the fact that we have been stockpiling picks by trading down, instead of giving them away for low quality FA's, seems a better way to proceed with this team.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

This debate is really lame. OK, say we get Luck somehow or RG III, but our line lacks depth and real talent to be able to adequately protect a rook QB, where are you then. Bradford was supposedly the QB god that was going to reverse the Rams losing, but now is trade bait for draft picks? Luck put up some nice numbers agains crappy Pac 10 teams and struggled a bit against real competition and lost those games. Oregon made him look like a little bitch, USC made him look above average at best. What happens when the competition is always on the same level? It is easy for a good solid QB to put up freakish numbers against remarkedly inferior competition. The same went for both Leinart and Bradford. Look at them now. That is why RG III might make a better pro QB than Luck. Baylor used to be a doormat for the old SWC and Big 12, now with the coach, and RG III they are respectable. That all being said we need all the picks we can get to address depth needs, as well as have guys compete for starting jobs with some of the bums that pass for starters on our team. To throw away 3-4 draft picks on a prima dona type QB that very well might be a bust is foolish. Andy isn't going to face WSU, OSU, UCLA, Ariz St, Az, or Cal. He is going to be facing teams that are about even every Sunday in terms of athleticism, etc. It might be SUck for Luck now, but in 2013 it might be Luck just Sucks!!

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

When it comes to a special player like Andrew Luck, I don't care about statistical analyses about the odds of a generic QB succeeding in the NFL, or the fact that past trades of high draft picks for players haven't worked out for the Redskins, or any other cautionary tales. Sometimes in life a decision maker must believe in someone or something enough that, regardless of all that might possibly go wrong, he goes for it. Such was the case when Carolina drafted Cam Newton.

I believe that Andrew Luck can be a great NFL QB. He is the real deal, the bomb, the truth! I am not the decision maker in this case, but if there is any reasonable or seemingly unreasonable (just short of ridiculous) trade that Shanny can make to get Luck, I hope he goes for it.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

What about this scenario: Rams get the #1 pick but the Browns trade up to get Luck. Colts don't draft RGIII, does he fall to us? Do we pull the trigger? Also, if Michael Vick can become a great west coast QB I don't see why RGIII can't fit our system. I really don't think (and hope) especially with the success of Cam Newton that the Shannys are that stubborn that if they draft RGIII they won't tailor the system a bit to fit RGIII's skill set.

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=EARTHQUAKE2689;871327]What about this scenario: Rams get the #1 pick but the Browns trade up to get Luck. Colts don't draft RGIII, does he fall to us? Do we pull the trigger? Also, if Michael Vick can become a great west coast QB I don't see why RGIII can't fit our system. I really don't think (and hope) especially with the success of Cam Newton that the Shannys are that stubborn that if they draft RGIII they won't tailor the system a bit to fit RGIII's skill set.[/quote]

[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/31/shurmur-on-rg3-good-players-fit-in-every-offense/]Shurmur on RG3: “Good players fit in every offense” | ProFootballTalk[/url]

Re: What is Andrew Luck Worth?
 

[quote=GusFrerotte;871274]This debate is really lame. OK, say we get Luck somehow or RG III, but our line lacks depth and real talent to be able to adequately protect a rook QB, where are you then. Bradford was supposedly the QB god that was going to reverse the Rams losing, but now is trade bait for draft picks? Luck put up some nice numbers agains crappy Pac 10 teams and struggled a bit against real competition and lost those games. Oregon made him look like a little bitch, USC made him look above average at best. What happens when the competition is always on the same level? It is easy for a good solid QB to put up freakish numbers against remarkedly inferior competition. The same went for both Leinart and Bradford. Look at them now. That is why RG III might make a better pro QB than Luck. Baylor used to be a doormat for the old SWC and Big 12, now with the coach, and RG III they are respectable. That all being said we need all the picks we can get to address depth needs, as well as have guys compete for starting jobs with some of the bums that pass for starters on our team. To throw away 3-4 draft picks on a prima dona type QB that very well might be a bust is foolish. Andy isn't going to face WSU, OSU, UCLA, Ariz St, Az, or Cal. He is going to be facing teams that are about even every Sunday in terms of athleticism, etc. It might be SUck for Luck now, but in 2013 it might be Luck just Sucks!![/quote]

So basically you are saying players in every conference except the SEC sucks and can't be great in the NFL. I thought that was DirtBag's shtick?