Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;1194771]Just a quick reminder..

Alex Smith has made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years... Once again let that sink in.

Good day all :)[/quote]

This would be a fantastic point, if he wasn't dependent on 44 other players also making contributions on game day to get the W.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=mooby;1194863]This would be a fantastic point, if he wasn't dependent on 44 other players also making contributions on game day to get the W.[/quote]

I agree.
In a year when a second string QB that some teams gave up on wins a Super Bowl/MVP over one of the best ever QB's, it is time to stop under-valueing position players and team.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=mooby;1194863]This would be a fantastic point, if he wasn't dependent on 44 other players also making contributions on game day to get the W.[/QUOTE]But it still points to AS. He has had different coaches, different surrounding players, different schemes. And still he has led his teams to playoff appearances. That reflects on his leadership, ability as a passer, and intangibles like game awareness and selflessnes.

Obviously only time will tell, but i am real high on AS directing Grudens offense.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1194874]But it still points to AS. He has had different coaches, different surrounding players, different schemes. And still he has led his teams to playoff appearances. That reflects on his leadership, ability as a passer, and intangibles like game awareness and selflessnes.

Obviously only time will tell, but i am real high on AS directing Grudens offense.[/quote]

I agree. And dependent on 44 other players? Well, the only QB I've seen that has been able to throw a TD pass to himself was Marcus Mariota in the playoffs - even Brady couldn't do that lol!

And I hope Smith IS dependent on 44 other players. That means 44 other players are stepping up to get the W. If it's all on Alex Smith, then that means the rest of the team sucks.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161510.jpg.1e94286c09146afd9eccec9d22c4426d.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161459.jpg.fd15dbe9f62684e4a75d9124aa23d7e6.jpg[/IMG]

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

^^^^^

In regards to this, I always felt that one of Cousins' biggest issues was connecting in short to intermediate throws. These often happened in 3rd and short situations, which did not help in keeping the opposing offense off the field.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=Schneed10;1194884][IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161510.jpg.1e94286c09146afd9eccec9d22c4426d.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161459.jpg.fd15dbe9f62684e4a75d9124aa23d7e6.jpg[/IMG][/quote]

What does turnover worthy numbers mean? Throwing a ball that results in turnover?

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=GridIron26;1194887]What does turnover worthy numbers mean? Throwing a ball that results in turnover?[/quote]

This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=Schneed10;1194884][IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161510.jpg.1e94286c09146afd9eccec9d22c4426d.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://d1bwi66z1iq552.cloudfront.net/monthly_2018_01/Screenshot_20180131-161459.jpg.fd15dbe9f62684e4a75d9124aa23d7e6.jpg[/IMG][/quote]

Valuable stats, thanks!
Then, as you mention in your last post, QB probably is the most dependable position on the field. But we finished 7-9 (and were a couple of plays away of 9-7) while being decimated by injuries.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

Pff has definitely done a good job bringing more relevant stats to light. Thanks for sharing.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

I'm interested in the disparity between Kirk's rank against the blitz (3rd) and his rank against pressure (20th).

Could he plan and account for a blitz versus have to react to and go off schedule to deal with pressure?

Any theories?

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=DYoungJelly;1194906]I'm interested in the disparity between Kirk's rank against the blitz (3rd) and his rank against pressure (20th).

Could he plan and account for a blitz versus have to react to and go off schedule to deal with pressure?

Any theories?[/quote]

It’s important to remember that not every blitz succeeds in generating pressure, and not every QB pressure came from the blitz.

To me, Cousins’s success against the blitz says he’s adept at very quickly diagnosing a defense and very quickly getting rid of the ball. He does a good job of deploying hot routes and knows where to go with it if he sees blitz. Basically he’s a smart QB.

But the poor stats against pressure mean that once a rusher breaks free of his block and is bearing down on Cousins, his athleticism limits him to pedestrian performance. He can’t escape like Wilson or Wentz, he can’t shrug big dudes off like Roethlisberger, and he can’t make other worldly throws on the run like Rodgers.

We’ve seen that tons of times. To me it points to a QB who will do well during the regular season, but against the better pass rushes that come in the playoffs, the team around him will need to play perfectly to get him over the hump.

And thus the reason he chose Minnesota. He himself knows his limitations.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

Great stats, and they reflect what we've seen in KC for years. I'm fine with the decision to trade for Smith, I think he's an upgrade at least this year to Cousins, and honestly the lack of drama will help the team.

Smith's numbers/stats above are better but he is 34yo and on the decline (max 2-4more years) - while KC can still improve. Not to mention the injuries to the entire team last year without any running game -- make comparison of numbers incredibly difficult.

Smith may be slightly better but the comparison is close. In the end - we basically lost 5 years of good QB and a 8-10 years of good to elite CB -- both in their prime. That hurts.

But the eagles seemed to turn things around in 1-2 drafts, we can too..

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=Schneed10;1194888]This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.[/quote]

Thanks for the explanation

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1194874]But it still points to AS. He has had different coaches, different surrounding players, different schemes. And still he has led his teams to playoff appearances. That reflects on his leadership, ability as a passer, and intangibles like game awareness and selflessnes.

Obviously only time will tell, but i am real high on AS directing Grudens offense.[/quote]

If you want to put a number on it, at best a qb can be responsible for 33% of his team's success on gameday, because defense and special teams still have to play adequately to get the W. And while you make a good point about the success he's had, keep in mind he's only played for 2 teams, and 1 of those teams he had the same head coach with (Reid) for 5 seasons. I'm sure he's had turnover at coordinator/lower rank coaches, but there's still something to be said for consistency at HC.

Also we can't brag about his playoff appearances because while he's done a good job of getting the Chiefs there, it's not like they've done anything once they got in.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=mooby;1194941]If you want to put a number on it, at best a qb can be responsible for 33% of his team's success on gameday, because defense and special teams still have to play adequately to get the W. And while you make a good point about the success he's had, keep in mind he's only played for 2 teams, and 1 of those teams he had the same head coach with (Reid) for 5 seasons. I'm sure he's had turnover at coordinator/lower rank coaches, but there's still something to be said for consistency at HC.

Also we can't brag about his playoff appearances because while he's done a good job of getting the Chiefs there, it's not like they've done anything once they got in.[/QUOTE]So a qb who checks down on 3rd down, throws redzone interceptions, or has a fumbling tendency can only be 1/3 at fault? That is a bit flawed, a reverse example is a cb who consistently drops picks. The fact that the CB drops an interception and thus doesn't end a drive weighs more on the flow of a game then just 33%.

Likewise a qb who doesnt turnover the ball and put the defense in a bad position, or converts 3rd and medium with a regular consistency thus keeping special teams in good field position is far more valuable then 33%. And that's the change we are hoping to get with AS.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=Schneed10;1194888]This is why PFF is a valuable tool. They watch every throw right - and if a QB throws a ball and a DB gets his hands on it but drops it - they deem it a 'turnover worthy' throw.

Likewise, if the QB drops a dime right on his WR but it hits his WR's hands, bounces up in the air, and is picked off by a safety, that's not a turnover worthy throw.

And if the QB throws it, the DB gets his hands on it and actually makes the interception, that of course goes down as a turnover worthy throw.

It's basically trying to cut through the fortunate and unfortunate bounces of the ball to determine whether a QB was at fault on a throw that either could have or did cause a turnover.

When you plot Smith's turnover worthy % against his big time throw %, he bubbles up to the upper quadrant of the graph in rare company - it's only him and Brady with such strong big time throw %s and such low turnover worthy throw %s.

Worth noting of course that this is reflective of a surrounding cast. I don't think Cousins is as bad as his numbers showed in 2017 - the offensive line was decimated. But I also think that if healthy, Smith will play with a supporting cast on offense that is in no way a step down from what he had in KC. Health of the supporting cast will be key. If it's there, then you'll see performance stronger than what Cousins put up in 2016 when the offense was healthy.[/quote]

I'm doing a Russell Wilson project right now. From his college days. Wait til they bring out the new QB Grading system it's pretty sweet.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=MTK;1191060]John Beck?[/QUOTE]



Oh God. If there is one former quarterback who should never be mentioned by name again it is him. I don’t think he ever completed a pass for over 4 yards. Actually I don’t think he ever attempted a pass for over four yards. That was probably the most trying time to be a Skins fan.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1191140]If we sign DRC or Scandrick we will be fine, both of those guys are quality CB's. They wanted Alex right after the season ended, Doug said it in his presser. Fuller was a good player but Smith is a must have. I still don't understand why a 3rd CB would be more valuable than a top 12 QB?[/QUOTE]



It isn’t more valuable it is just that we forced our own hand, and if we had played our cards better we would not have had to give that up for the quarterback.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1194963]It isn’t more valuable it is just that we forced our own hand, and if we had played our cards better we would not have had to give that up for the quarterback.[/quote]

True point but I'm Just Saying I'd rather have AS over KF, we will see who had the better end of the deal in a few years though.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1194965]True point but I'm Just Saying I'd rather have AS over KF, we will see who had the better end of the deal in a few years though.[/QUOTE]



No doubt that id rather have AS over KF too. But it was AS over KF, a third round pick, and Cousins at the end of the day.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1194968]No doubt that id rather have AS over KF too. But it was AS over KF, a third round pick, and Cousins at the end of the day.[/quote]
I still take AS.

A note on KC's record, that I wonder how it will play out in Minnesota - he is 0-8 in games in domes. Makes me wonder if the faster field makes defenses better able to react to his game. Could be disastrous for Minny if that's the case.

The value of a starting qb that doesn't give away games can't be overvalued. I know KC also pulled a few games out, but AS, from what I've seen, doesn't give away games period. That alone is worth a 3rd corner. As for the 3rd rounder, ultimately we got the 3rd round pick back, and an atleast comparable QB.

Is it the season yet?

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1194974]I still take AS.

A note on KC's record, that I wonder how it will play out in Minnesota, is he is 0-8 in games in domes. Makes me wonder if the faster field makes defenses better able to react to his game. Could be disastrous for Minny if that's the case.

The value of a starting qb that doesn't give away games can't be overvalued. I know KC also pulled a few games out, but AS, from what I've seen, doesn't give away games period. That alone is worth a 3rd corner. As for the 3rd rounder, ultimately we got the 3rd round pick back, and an atleast comparable QB.

Is it the season yet?[/quote]

I never thought of that, good point and I had no idea he was 0-8 in domes.. WOW

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1194974]I still take AS.

A note on KC's record, that I wonder how it will play out in Minnesota, is he is 0-8 in games in domes. Makes me wonder if the faster field makes defenses better able to react to his game. Could be disastrous for Minny if that's the case.

The value of a starting qb that doesn't give away games can't be overvalued. I know KC also pulled a few games out, but AS, from what I've seen, doesn't give away games period. That alone is worth a 3rd corner. As for the 3rd rounder, ultimately we got the 3rd round pick back, and an atleast comparable QB.

Is it the season yet?[/quote]

As much as I love summertime, it sucks having to wait until September for football (not counting pre season of course.)

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

0-8 in domes lol

Another meaningless number the haters will try to hang on him

With that team that’s loaded on both sides of the ball he could go 8-0 in his own dome this year

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=MTK;1194985]0-8 in domes lol

Another meaningless number the haters will try to hang on him

With that team that’s loaded on both sides of the ball he could go 8-0 in his own dome this year[/quote]

You'd have to break down his numbers in those 8 games but it's still an interesting stat

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1194986]You'd have to break down his numbers in those 8 games but it's still an interesting stat[/QUOTE]


I’d phrase it more like the Redskins were 0-8 with KC as QB in dome games

Using W/L when analyzing a QB is seriously overrated

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=MTK;1194989]I’d phrase it more like the Redskins were 0-8 with KC as QB in dome games

Using W/L when analyzing a QB is seriously overrated[/quote]

I have always agreed with that. I know he beat Dallas when the roof was shut because I was there lol so I mean that could be considered a dome...

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=MTK;1194985]0-8 in domes lol

Another meaningless number the haters will try to hang on him

With that team that’s loaded on both sides of the ball he could go 8-0 in his own dome this year[/quote]

I am not trying to hate on him, I just found it an odd statistic and it's also fair to say that the team lost those games.

Just relooking at it, the record is actually 1-8, with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, in domes and retractables, but his rating is higher in domes, so again, just an odd stat, and I will be interested in seeing how he does. I guarantee though that he's not going 8-0 in Minny this year.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1194962]Oh God. If there is one former quarterback who should never be mentioned by name again it is him. I don’t think he ever completed a pass for over 4 yards. Actually I don’t think he ever attempted a pass for over four yards. That was probably the most trying time to be a Skins fan.[/quote]

I remember screen shots of the D when playing against him. All eleven guys were within 10 - 12 yard of the LOS - maybe a safety less than 20 yards back. It was laughable.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=MTK;1194985]0-8 in domes lol

Another meaningless number the haters will try to hang on him

With that team that’s loaded on both sides of the ball he could go 8-0 in his own dome this year[/QUOTE]



Last one I remember was in New Orleans. He had a 132 rating. 3 td’s, 0 int. 22-32. 322 yards. I don’t think the dome bothered him. Lol.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=punch it in;1194998]Last one I remember was in New Orleans. He had a 132 rating. 3 td’s, 0 int. 22-32. 322 yards. I don’t think the dome bothered him. Lol.[/QUOTE]


Nah man he lost it, no way Smith goes down like that

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

Way to make a mountain out of a molehill. I simply thought it was an odd statistic. Glad you all feel so up in arms about defending KC against an offseason musing.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1195001]Way to make a mountain out of a molehill. I simply thought it was an odd statistic. Glad you all feel so up in arms about defending KC against an offseason musing.[/quote]

I got the point bro.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=CRedskinsRule;1195001]Way to make a mountain out of a molehill. I simply thought it was an odd statistic. Glad you all feel so up in arms about defending KC against an offseason musing.[/QUOTE]



Lol. Not at all C Red. It is an odd statistic. So much so that I tried to research it. Didn’t have the time to dig past recent history. Was more a remark about how our team/ coaching staff lost alot of games in spite of Cousins performances than calling you out for posting it.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

2016 @Detroit. 30-39. 301 yards. 1 td 0 int. 107 rating. If I remember correctly our D shit the bed on the last drive after Cousins took us on what should have been a game winning clutch ass drive. Again not calling you out - just looking into it. Another case where KC - in a dome - played great and our team/Coaches shit the bed.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1195004]2016 @Detroit. 30-39. 301 yards. 1 td 0 int. 107 rating. If I remember correctly our D shit the bed on the last drive after Cousins took us on what should have been a game winning clutch ass drive. Again not calling you out - just looking into it. Another case where KC - in a dome - played great and our team/Coaches shit the bed.[/quote]

W/out looking at it, Stafford to Tate I believe on 4th down?

ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[QUOTE=skinsfaninok;1195005]W/out looking at it, Stafford to Tate I believe on 4th down?[/QUOTE]



I believe you are correct. I believe also that after the D pretty much sticking it to Stafford for the entire game they suddenly went into a pussy prevent D in crunch time. Cousins had an 80 % comp % in that particular dome. All this being said I think KC absolutely thrives in the dome and with that team - it suits him better. I also think Smith is the perfect fit for us and Grudens offense. If our D is improved - and it damn well should be- than I think us and Minny both come out of this smelling like roses.
If Guice is who I think he is than that should help Smith immensely also.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1195006]I believe you are correct. I believe also that after the D pretty much sticking it to Stafford for the entire game they suddenly went into a pussy prevent D in crunch time. Cousins had an 80 % comp % in that particular dome. All this being said I think KC absolutely thrives in the dome and with that team - it suits him better. I also think Smith is the perfect fit for us and Grudens offense. If our D is improved - and it damn well should be- than I think us and Minny both come out of this smelling like roses.
If Guice is who I think he is than that should help Smith immensely also.[/quote]


I want nothing more than a MIN/WSH Nfc Title game, could u imagine the build up for that!!! I think both teams will be good too.

Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.
 

[quote=punch it in;1195004]2016 @Detroit. 30-39. 301 yards. 1 td 0 int. 107 rating. If I remember correctly our D shit the bed on the last drive after Cousins took us on what should have been a game winning clutch ass drive. Again not calling you out - just looking into it. Another case where KC - in a dome - played great and our team/Coaches shit the bed.[/quote]

Cousins also had a fumble when he tried to hand off as he was falling.

We scored a whopping 17 points, which is part of KC's issues with the Skins, he put up numbers, but often they weren't followed by points. The defense held them to 20, which should be a winnable game, imo, especially with points gifted by turnovers.


I'm not going to try and argue it's not a team sport, it is. And the Skins losses in Domed stadiums are certainly team losses.