Passing: A Deeper Look
 

The NFL defines a "deep pass" as one that travels 15 yards in the air. This year they've started keeping track of that on a game by game basis.

So, since I'm not really a fan of generalizations -"Brunell never throws the ball more than 10 yards"-I thought I'd chart the "deep passes" I went week by week, QB by QB; including total completions and attempts and what percentage of the total completions were deep completions and what percentage of the total attempts were deep attempts. I didn't include such things as who won the game, were the completions for touchdowns, were the incompletions interceptions, etc. But I thought this might give a good idea of where we stand, compared to the rest of the league. (I sorted it by deep attempts)

[URL="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pukQA1R9UZSmHw4UJ3DlSLA"]Enjoy![/URL]

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=TAFKAS;230726]The NFL defines a "deep pass" as one that travels 15 yards in the air. This year they've started keeping track of that on a game by game basis.

So, since I'm not really a fan of generalizations -"Brunell never throws the ball more than 10 yards"-I thought I'd chart the "deep passes" I went week by week, QB by QB; including total completions and attempts and what percentage of the total completions were deep completions and what percentage of the total attempts were deep attempts. I didn't include such things as who won the game, where the completions for touchdowns, where the incompletions interceptions, etc. But I thought this might give a good idea of where we stand, compared to the rest of the league. (I sorted it by deep attempts)

[URL="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pukQA1R9UZSmHw4UJ3DlSLA"]Enjoy![/URL][/quote]

Grrrrrrrrrrrr! Brunell never throws deep? What about the Jags? What about last week to Randal El??? What about the Dallas game in 05?? Come on! He CAN throw deep...... It's all about him wanting to play conservative which keeps him from throwing deep on a regular basis. But he CAN DO IT!

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

I can't, google spreadsheet boy.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Hell yeah... muchos gracious senor

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Every now and then the sun shines on a dog's ass! And it is so with Brunell's deep passes. Come on guys, get real! With our WR's we should go down field at least 4 to 5 times a half! HAIL from MCUSA!

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

I cannot WAIT for you ALL TO EAT CROW!!!!!!!!!! .... OK, so I said it. I happen to be a Brunell FAN.. I know, one of the few.. but I DO believe that man has it him to do right by the SKINS!

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=hesscl34;230738]I cannot WAIT for you ALL TO EAT CROW!!!!!!!!!! .... OK, so I said it. I happen to be a Brunell FAN.. I know, one of the few.. but I DO believe that man has it him to do right by the SKINS![/quote]


you go ahead and start chewing and if you like it, I may try a bite in like 10 weeks or so...

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Hess, it's not like any of us thing he's out to ruin the Redskins, he's just not in his prime any more.

Did anyone else see the third Ortiz Vs. Shamrock fight? Yeah, he's like Ken. The spirit may be willing but the flesh ain't doin' the trick no more. He'll be a great mentor for JC.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Can someone give me the jist of what it says. Google says my version of firefox is too high... I'm far too lazy to deal with it this late.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Brunell is an average QB, he just can't be relied on to throw more than 20 times.... this is where the running game comes into play

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=Daseal;230742]Can someone give me the jist of what it says. Google says my version of firefox is too high... I'm far too lazy to deal with it this late.[/QUOTE]

Too high? That's interesting.

I can email it to you if you'd like. PM me your address

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=Meast;230729]I can't, google spreadsheet boy.[/QUOTE]

I'll ask Matty to put the spreadsheet on our site in the morning

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=hesscl34;230738]I cannot WAIT for you ALL TO EAT CROW!!!!!!!!!! .... OK, so I said it. I happen to be a Brunell FAN.. I know, one of the few.. but I DO believe that man has it him to do right by the SKINS![/QUOTE]

I love myself some Brunell crow and I would be happy to feast. I pray that you are right. But what are the standards? Does Brunell have to lead us into the playoffs for us to eat crow? Does that you mean eat crow if we are home in January? And What does doing right by the Skins mean? He plays marginally better or he turns the team around? I love your optimism, but it dont look good kid.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=hesscl34;230738]I cannot WAIT for you ALL TO EAT CROW!!!!!!!!!! .... OK, so I said it. I happen to be a Brunell FAN.. I know, one of the few.. but I DO believe that man has it him to do right by the SKINS![/QUOTE]

Me to, retire!

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

big question on how you compiled this...

i just went through the nfl.com play by play and re-watched the jacksonville game and brunell is 4/7, not 6/8, so wondering how you got that.

2nd quarter:
1-10-WAS20 (11:20) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to C.Cooley.
3-10-WAS30 (9:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep right to S.Moss.
1-10-WAS33 (5:01) M.Brunell pass deep middle to C.Cooley to JAX 45 for 22 yards.
3-6-JAC41 (3:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to B.Lloyd.
1-10-JAC46 (1:01) M.Brunell pass deep left to A.Randle El to JAX 27 for 19 yards.


3rd quarter:
3-6-JAC38 (4:49) M.Brunell pass deep left to B.Lloyd ran ob at JAX 5 for 33 yards.

Overtime:
2-13-WAS32 (13:23) M.Brunell pass deep left to S.Moss for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


there was a cooley catch deep in overtime, but that can't be counted since he was guilty of illegal touching, and couldn't have caught the ball without committing that illegal act... if anything it should be counted as another incompletion, but i left it out in my 4/7 accounting above. no idea how you got 6/8 though.

I don't have time to check all of the games, so i don't know how accurate those are.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

and in case anyone is wondering... peyton throws 43.13% more deep passes per game and completes 47.47% more deep passes than brunell (per game this year). that's assuming the data is 100% accurate though, which may or may not be true :/. and those numbers will be even more skewed once peyton checks out our secondary.

so yeah, he doesn't throw deep all that much.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Thanks for putting this together! Did you add them all up to see where that put shim overall? Still toward the bottom of the middle at best is my guess.

Also, these stats lack a qualitative aspect - that is, how close were those incompletions? As you mentioned, we don't know how many ended up as interceptions. Factoring in that type of information is guaranteed to pull Brunell down. Although, he looked very good in the Jags game.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=That Guy;230773]big question on how you compiled this...

i just went through the nfl.com play by play and re-watched the jacksonville game and brunell is 4/7, not 6/8, so wondering how you got that.

2nd quarter:
1-10-WAS20 (11:20) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to C.Cooley.
3-10-WAS30 (9:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep right to S.Moss.
1-10-WAS33 (5:01) M.Brunell pass deep middle to C.Cooley to JAX 45 for 22 yards.
3-6-JAC41 (3:07) (Shotgun) M.Brunell pass incomplete deep left to B.Lloyd.
1-10-JAC46 (1:01) M.Brunell pass deep left to A.Randle El to JAX 27 for 19 yards.


3rd quarter:
3-6-JAC38 (4:49) M.Brunell pass deep left to B.Lloyd ran ob at JAX 5 for 33 yards.

Overtime:
2-13-WAS32 (13:23) M.Brunell pass deep left to S.Moss for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.


there was a cooley catch deep in overtime, but that can't be counted since he was guilty of illegal touching, and couldn't have caught the ball without committing that illegal act... if anything it should be counted as another incompletion, but i left it out in my 4/7 accounting above. no idea how you got 6/8 though.

I don't have time to check all of the games, so i don't know how accurate those are.[/QUOTE]

I figured if anyone was going to find flaws it would be you ;) I got the numbers from NFL.com and cross-referenced with Stats Inc (through Football Outsiders). Both had him at 6/8 in that game.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=onlydarksets;230782]Thanks for putting this together! Did you add them all up to see where that put shim overall? Still toward the bottom of the middle at best is my guess.

Also, these stats lack a qualitative aspect - that is, how close were those incompletions? As you mentioned, we don't know how many ended up as interceptions. Factoring in that type of information is guaranteed to pull Brunell down. Although, he looked very good in the Jags game.[/QUOTE]

If I remember right, just two of Brunell's deep passes were for INTs. I figured if people really wanted to take an ever deeper look into it they could do it themselves. The intent here wasn't to prove any point. Personally, I feel he's throw deep more often than given credit but more importantly I don't think it's as important as almost everyone else seems to think. The reason for posting this was that I was just getting tired of hearing how he NEVER throws deep and the rest of the league does all the time., without anyone providing any numbers.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

hmmm interesting post, but i wonder, aren't most of brunell's "deep balls" mostly due to yards after catch? not that everyone doesn't benefit, but i think its a fair observation.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=TAFKAS;230790]If I remember right, just two of Brunell's deep passes were for INTs. I figured if people really wanted to take an ever deeper look into it they could do it themselves. The intent here wasn't to prove any point. Personally, I feel he's throw deep more often than given credit but more importantly I don't think it's as important as almost everyone else seems to think. The reason for posting this was that I was just getting tired of hearing how he NEVER throws deep and the rest of the league does all the time., without anyone providing any numbers.[/quote]

I understand and appreciate you shedding light on the subject... People in general shouldn't care about all that as long as the plays are being made, but my biggest concern from the last game regarding brunell's throws, are he hit more blue guys in the hands and chest with the ball than I care to remember... on short throws...

The Int at the end was just him looking to get the ball to the only guy he's comfortable with bailing him out, but now defenses will be keying in on that. I thought that was why we brought in these other two guys, but whatever...

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=BrunellMVP?;230804]hmmm interesting post, but i wonder, aren't most of brunell's "deep balls" mostly due to yards after catch? not that everyone doesn't benefit, but i think its a fair observation.[/QUOTE]

Not in these cases. These are specifically passes that traveled 15 yards in the air before landing. That's the NFL's definition of a "deep pass"

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

With Santana Moss, do we really NEED to go deep? Just dump if off to him and the ball will move 30 to 70 yards a lot of times. Same end result. :)

Besides, Brunell has shown he CAN go deep when needed. Lloyd caught a 52 yarder last week and we've watched Moss catch some, even game winners.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Thanks TAFKAS for the spreadsheet, Brunell's up and down performance is well documented in that spreadsheet.

My point in questioning Brunell's deep passing ability is that it "appears" that his reluctance to go deep and stretch the field is hindering our receivers ability to get open on the short routes. Either our wideouts are running horrible routes, or they just don't respect Brunell's ability to go deep.

Another perception problem, teams don't seem to have any difficulty in going deep against us and I still believe we have a pretty good defense. I watched McNabb vs. the Giants and wondered if Brunell could have made those same throws, and thus far he hasn't proved that he can consistently. My frustration comes from seeing him complete a 53 yarder to Lloyd vs the Titans and then seeing him bounce a 10 yard pass to him on the next series.

Watching Brunell vs the Giants he did seem to have some pop in his arm, but against the Titans that pop was missing.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=memphisskin;230867]Thanks TAFKAS for the spreadsheet, Brunell's up and down performance is well documented in that spreadsheet.

My point in questioning Brunell's deep passing ability is that it "appears" that his reluctance to go deep and stretch the field is hindering our receivers ability to get open on the short routes. Either our wideouts are running horrible routes, or they just don't respect Brunell's ability to go deep.

Another perception problem, teams don't seem to have any difficulty in going deep against us and I still believe we have a pretty good defense. I watched McNabb vs. the Giants and wondered if Brunell could have made those same throws, and thus far he hasn't proved that he can consistently. My frustration comes from seeing him complete a 53 yarder to Lloyd vs the Titans and then seeing him bounce a 10 yard pass to him on the next series.

Watching Brunell vs the Giants he did seem to have some pop in his arm, but against the Titans that pop was missing.[/quote]

Spot on post. A lot of corners are sitting down on the short routes and daring Mark to go downfield and beat them........he just is unable to do it, and will not do it.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Heard an interesting point about the passing game today by a local beat reporter. When asked if the receivers are getting open, he said that usually in the NFL, being "open" can many times be just half a step from the defender. On the intermediate routes, the deep ins, outs, hooks and square-ins, Brunell for whatever reason doesn't make those throws anymore.

Does it seem to anyone else that he either gives us the occasional desperation heave to Moss, or the 10-yard or less completions? The latter seem to be the only types of passes that get completed with any consistency.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Brunell had his day in the sun. It's time for a new day to dawn, and that new day is Jason Campbell! Hess, Brunell can be his mentor from the sidelines. Giving him that sound veteran advice! HAIL from MCUSA!

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

Whether a ball goes 15 yards in the air isn't a great measure of a "deep pass" in my opinion. The point of the deep pass is to stretch the defense out. To me, it's not a deep pass if it goes 16 yards through the air. It's a deep pass only if it's an attempt to get the ball over the safety's head. That's what we don't do often enough, and consequently we find ourselves facing cover 2 umbrellas in which the safeties are relatively shallow.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=Schneed10;231225]Whether a ball goes 15 yards in the air isn't a great measure of a "deep pass" in my opinion. The point of the deep pass is to stretch the defense out. To me, it's not a deep pass if it goes 16 yards through the air. It's a deep pass only if it's an attempt to get the ball over the safety's head. That's what we don't do often enough, and consequently we find ourselves facing cover 2 umbrellas in which the safeties are relatively shallow.[/QUOTE]

Just going by the official definition. Personally, I feel a five-yard screen that goes 50 is more effective than a 15-yarder that goes for an extra 10. But people want to see bombs.

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=RobH4413;230730]Hell yeah... muchos gracious senor[/quote]

I hate you......chinga tu madre

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=WillH;231229]I hate you......chinga tu madre[/QUOTE]

what was the point of that?

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=TAFKAS;231230]what was the point of that?[/quote]
It's okay he's my cousin.... we joke... (hence the similar H's in our name)

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=RobH4413;231238]It's okay he's my cousin.... we joke... (hence the similar H's in our name)[/QUOTE]

Is he the TE from Maryland? I figured there had to be some background

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

No... but we're both cousins of him...

Joey Haynos is the TE from MD

WillH is the other knuckle-head poster



and then theres yours truly... humbly posting like a maniac as of recent.

I need to do a little more homework... and a little less posting though.
Calc 2 is a bitch, and I've been slacking.

We're all redskins fans of course...

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[quote=TAFKAS;230789]I figured if anyone was going to find flaws it would be you ;) I got the numbers from NFL.com and cross-referenced with Stats Inc (through Football Outsiders). Both had him at 6/8 in that game.[/quote]

that's odd that nfl.com would have 6/8 deep when their own play by play shows 4/7. I verified the 4/7 by rewatching the entire game twice though ;).

6.25% (1/16) deep int rate i'm guessing isn't very good though. peyton has a 2.7% deep int rate (1/37). both of brunells weren't great decisions... i don't remember the conditions of peyton's int (in the manning bowl).

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

pretty cool tafkas . .

Average of 5.3 "deep" attempts a game for MB

Average of 28.16 overall attempts a game

so about 18% of his passes travel 15 yards or more

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=TAFKAS;231228]Just going by the official definition. Personally, I feel a five-yard screen that goes 50 is more effective than a 15-yarder that goes for an extra 10. [B]But people want to see bombs.[/B][/QUOTE]

That's certainly simplifying the logic, but a bit misleading. I want to see wins, which requires the O to open up the field a bit, which requires the occasional long pass to stretch the safeties. So, yes, I want to see bombs, but not as an end unto itself (that's right, I said "unto").

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=That Guy;231252]that's odd that nfl.com would have 6/8 deep when their own play by play shows 4/7. I verified the 4/7 by rewatching the entire game twice though ;).

6.25% (1/16) deep int rate i'm guessing isn't very good though. peyton has a 2.7% deep int rate (1/37). both of brunells weren't great decisions... i don't remember the conditions of peyton's int (in the manning bowl).[/QUOTE]

Well going game by game for each team for 6 weeks I imagine I probably had an error here or there. But whatever, you get the general jist of what I was trying to do...I think

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=onlydarksets;231342]That's certainly simplifying the logic, but a bit misleading. I want to see wins, which requires the O to open up the field a bit, which requires the occasional long pass to stretch the safeties. So, yes, I want to see bombs, but not as an end unto itself (that's right, I said "unto").[/QUOTE]

I shouldn't generalize but I honestly believe (and I'm sure others would agree) that there are people here that would rather we lose with guns blazing than lose or even win playing a conservative game. For example, I think to win Sunday we have to play conservative, not engage in a shootout. But I'd be willing to be that if we pull off something like a 13-10 win there will still be people saying "Well that's not going to work when we go up against Donovan and the Eagles" or some such thing

Re: Passing: A Deeper Look
 

[QUOTE=TAFKAS;231346]I shouldn't generalize but I honestly believe (and I'm sure others would agree) that there are people here that would rather we lose with guns blazing than lose or even win playing a conservative game. For example, I think to win Sunday we have to play conservative, not engage in a shootout. But I'd be willing to be that if we pull off something like a 13-10 win there will still be people saying "Well that's not going to work when we go up against Donovan and the Eagles" or some such thing[/QUOTE]
Fair enough - given where we are [u]right now[/u], I would agree that conservative offers a better chance for victory. However, I think we have the tools for a high-powered offense like Indy. For that to work, though, we have to demonstrate the capability of going deep (kinda like the Death Star - it's the threat more than the actual use that is most effective).