Next Year's Cap Situation
 

I thought this would be an effective way to show how constantly restructuring can bite ones team in the balls.

I obtained all the following information from Canuck's Cap Sheets:

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with [SIZE=4][B]33 players[/B][/SIZE][SIZE=2] under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.[/SIZE]

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million [B]before free agency[/B] next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st. There will be numerous veteran cuts and probably a few restructures. Not only are we going to have to free up 14 million, but most likely 20 million to put us 6 million under so we can fill out the remaining 9 roster spots PLUS a roster spot for every cut we make to get under the cap. The cuts will likely include any veteran whose net cap gain would net us 1.5 or more million.

-Brunell's contract automatically voids, saving us 3.5 million.
-If Springs makes it this far, cutting him saves 2.5 million.
-Cutting Griffin saves 1.5 million.
-Cutting Daniels saves 3.0 million.
-Cutting Marcus Wasington saves 2.5 million.
-If we get desperate, cutting Betts and Rabach save about 1.3 million each.
-Guys like Lloyd and Arch and Carter still deliever sizable cap hits, meaning they will be Redskins through 2008 guarenteed.

As always we can restructure or make post June 1st cuts to save even more money in 2008. To a degree, we will have to do some of this. We can only free up 13 million by releasing the top 5 guys on that list. We will be forced to restructure (or declare our cuts as post June 1) to free up the final 7 million.

But that 7 million is going to be pushed into future years, and the 2009 cap situation is going to be even worse than this abomidable 2008 one.

It is imperitive that we keep our entire slate of 2008 draft picks. We are going to need to capitalize on those picks to help fill those empty (presumably 14) roster spots. Draft picks are always cap friendly in their rookie years and that's the main source of talent this team will have.

The only way this is going to go down easy is if we win a championship this year. It's not like the 2008 team will be completely void of talent, but I'm near certain that guys like Washington, Daniels, Griffin, Springs, Brunell, Saleve'a, Wynn, Marshall, Collins and Prioleau will not be on the roster come this time next year.

So imagine our current roster without those guys on it. Those are the holes we need to fill in our next two drafts.

I really am not trying to be a doom bringer here, but I wanted to prep you guys as to what the future holds.

But hey, if you didnt like the way the FO was going about things, maybe you see this in a postive light (if you are seeing this in a positive light, ask yourself when the last time you saw your physician was).

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

If we get rid of Springs this offseason, our cap situation will improve next year by about 4 million. But if we restructure him, its only going to get worse.

I personally hope we keep Springs under his current deal and cut him next year.


In addition, the best way to avoid such a horrible situation next year would be to cut ANY player who isnt in our plans BEYOND this year BEFORE this year. So that would be like Griffin and Washington (And more plausibly, Springs).

There's no way in hell we do that though. I think we are going to roll the dice with this team and hope they can deliever a championship right now.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Good read, and thanks for the effort put into that.

If what you are saying is true, then wouldn't the front office already been looking at it? I am sure there are tons of guys who work for the Skins that see this imminent danger coming up. I am sure there can be some other things that can be done so we don't get totally screwed.

And you think we would cut guys like Washington?

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

I really know nothing when it comes to the cap and contracts, so I would comment more but I will leave that up to the other experts we have here.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=hooskins;286798]Good read, and thanks for the effort put into that.

If what you are saying is true, then wouldn't the front office already been looking at it? I am sure there are tons of guys who work for the Skins that see this imminent danger coming up. I am sure there can be some other things that can be done so we don't get totally screwed.

And you think we would cut guys like Washington?[/quote]I'm sure the FO already knows the above. Or at least somebody does, though they may not be in a position to make decisions.

But I'm sure they already know, heres why: The talk of Shawn Springs' release. Cutting Springs gives us no cap help this year. But it turns my 20 million figure goal estimate for 2008 into a 16 million figure. That's a pretty significant difference. The trade off is we lose our No. 1 CB for this year.

I think there's going to be significant resistance within the FO to any suggestion to cut Washington next year. But if they don't cut him, they have to save 2.5 million somewhere else. That's 2.5 million of guarenteed money that will be pushed into future seasons and will be completely unrecoverable. So if we don't cut Washington prior to 2008, he's gotta go (at least under his current deal--we could re-sign him) by 2009 and then we are 2.5 million further in the hole.

The best option would be to get out while its economically smart, but if he has a pro bowl season this year, that would change our approach obviously.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

You guys wanna cut Marcus Washington?? In case you didn't know, he's our best defender. I see your point though and in reinforces the fact that this organization has no idea how to build up a team.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Thanks for the info GTripp. I'm not terribly concerned about our ability to field a group of good starters (in 2007 or 2008), but I think our cap moves have and will limit our ability to field a roster with quality depth. A really lucky team can overcome a lack of quality depth. A team beset by a rash of injuries, particularly late in the season or post-season, will have a hard time producing a Lombardi.

In any event, after Gibbs retires I expect a roster purge that reshapes our team and its cap situation.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;286802]Thanks for the info GTripp. I'm not terribly concerned about our ability to field a group of good starters (in 2007 or 2008), but I think our cap moves have and will limit our ability to field a roster with quality depth. A really lucky team can overcome a lack of quality depth. A team beset by a rash of injuries, particularly late in the season or post-season, will have a hard time producing a Lombardi.

In any event, after Gibbs retires I expect a roster purge that reshapes our team and its cap situation.[/quote]Our decision is basically to take the purge in 08 and 09, or in 09, 10, and 11. Either way, this issue is going to force itself within the next 5 years. Like any problem, the quicker it is addressed, the easier it will be for us all.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

well, that's what happens when you have a 3 year plan and it doesn't work out.

no big surprise, but i don't thin it's unfixable... using our free cap space right now to cut dead weight wouldn't be a terrible idea anyways.

I'll take a look in a bit.

when do the current tv contracts run out btw? cause that'd REALY affect whether the FO tries to string it out or purge.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;286796]

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with [SIZE=4][B]33 players[/B][/SIZE][SIZE=2] under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.[/SIZE]

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million [B]before free agency[/B] next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st.[/QUOTE]

Great info, alot of work has obviously gone into this and it is appreciated.:goodjob:

Our FO must know all this and more about the cap situation and although they have put themselves into this situation, i am confident that they will come through it without too many cap casualties. My confidence is growing because of the actions that they have taken so far this off-season. Rather than breaking the bank with big signings (as we have become accustomed to recently) they are acting in a much more economical manner, seemingly with future cap space in mind.

In addition to this, we have nearly 2 full years to get this sorted out and if there is one thing this franchise does better than anyone else, it is restructuring contracts. I would hope that a key player like Washington would re-work his contract in order to remain here. That being said, i am sure you are right about some of those players becoming cap casualties. Hopefully the damage can be minimised now that our FO seems to have realised their previous approacah was wrong.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Good info GTripp! The key to surviving this, is that they have freed more money this year than they needed to. They must be planning on cutting a few guys that will save us against the cap next year. Cutting LLoyd or Arch this year and eating the 6.5 mil effective hit will save us 4 mil next year. Cutting Patten would save 3.5 mil next year. As you said, Brunell, Springs, and Danials saves 9 mil. So, supposing we will be about 130,
130 - 9 - 3.5 - 4 = 113.5 mil. Expect Washington to restructure saving at least 2 mil. I estimate that another 2 mil could also be freed with additional simple restructures. That would put us at 109.5 mil against the 116 mil cap estimate.

Ironically, these moves put us exactly where GTripp says we need to be!

The key is to cut some guys this year, and, does anyone here really believe that Snyder has any plan to same some of the 10 million he has freed up so far?

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

This is why using the draft is so cap friendly. Any time a team drafts a young guy they can cut the guys who were originally signed as starters (Patten, Wynn, etc.) and are now backups.

Thus taking the hit now rather than later.

Look at the Eagles for example. They verry rarely let people who are no longer starters remain on the team unless they are contributing.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Thanks for posting GTripp. One of the main problems with the Redskins is that we are a front loaded team. All the money is put into the starters. The FO acts like injuries don't happen in the NFL.

I think it's time to start rebuiling. It might take a while too. Is Griff going to ever get back to playing like he did in 04? Probably not. Daniels is a no brainer. If you ask me Springs is a no brainer too. We don't even need to discuss Brunell. The only guy that I would keep is Washington. And even his play slipped last year. If he has a average 07 then I guess he's gone too. Perhaps his hip was the major problem in 06. But IMO it's just time to clean house after 07. We need to get younger in some areas in the worst way.

What is killing us is the play of Arch, Carter and Lloyd does not match up with the $ they are making. And yes Carter played a little better at the end of 06. But he still got gashed against the run. All I remember is 50 year Bob Whitfiled pushing him around and Tiki running wild the last game of the year.

But our FO always seems to wiggle out of cap hell so I'm sure they have a plan in 08-09.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Great work! Thanks for the info...


However, at this point, I'm just going to wait and see what happens. I feel like every year were in this situation, and then end up being great before you know it.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

I have a question.If for some strange reason we dont use up all of our cap space this year,could we give that extra money to players now to lower there cap hit for next year?

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=GTripp0012;286796]I thought this would be an effective way to show how constantly restructuring can bite ones team in the balls.

I obtained all the following information from Canuck's Cap Sheets:

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with [SIZE=4][B]33 players[/B][/SIZE][SIZE=2] under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.[/SIZE]

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million [B]before free agency[/B] next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st. There will be numerous veteran cuts and probably a few restructures. Not only are we going to have to free up 14 million, but most likely 20 million to put us 6 million under so we can fill out the remaining 9 roster spots PLUS a roster spot for every cut we make to get under the cap. The cuts will likely include any veteran whose net cap gain would net us 1.5 or more million.

-Brunell's contract automatically voids, saving us 3.5 million.
-If Springs makes it this far, cutting him saves 2.5 million.
-Cutting Griffin saves 1.5 million.
-Cutting Daniels saves 3.0 million.
-Cutting Marcus Wasington saves 2.5 million.
-If we get desperate, cutting Betts and Rabach save about 1.3 million each.
-Guys like Lloyd and Arch and Carter still deliever sizable cap hits, meaning they will be Redskins through 2008 guarenteed.

As always we can restructure or make post June 1st cuts to save even more money in 2008. To a degree, we will have to do some of this. We can only free up 13 million by releasing the top 5 guys on that list. We will be forced to restructure (or declare our cuts as post June 1) to free up the final 7 million.

But that 7 million is going to be pushed into future years, and the 2009 cap situation is going to be even worse than this abomidable 2008 one.

It is imperitive that we keep our entire slate of 2008 draft picks. We are going to need to capitalize on those picks to help fill those empty (presumably 14) roster spots. Draft picks are always cap friendly in their rookie years and that's the main source of talent this team will have.

The only way this is going to go down easy is if we win a championship this year. It's not like the 2008 team will be completely void of talent, but I'm near certain that guys like Washington, Daniels, Griffin, Springs, Brunell, Saleve'a, Wynn, Marshall, Collins and Prioleau will not be on the roster come this time next year.

So imagine our current roster without those guys on it. Those are the holes we need to fill in our next two drafts.

I really am not trying to be a doom bringer here, but I wanted to prep you guys as to what the future holds.

But hey, if you didnt like the way the FO was going about things, maybe you see this in a postive light (if you are seeing this in a positive light, ask yourself when the last time you saw your physician was).[/quote]

I thought we were under the cap presently alot more than your stated 10 million?

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=love them hogs;286833]I have a question.If for some strange reason we dont use up all of our cap space this year,could we give that extra money to players now to lower there cap hit for next year?[/quote]

yeah, you can rework their contract and move base salaries or roster bonuses up or cut and resign or whatnot to take the remaining pro-rated money hit immediately etc.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=redskin37;286834]I thought we were under the cap presently alot more than your stated 10 million?[/quote]

nope. just 10mill, and a lot of work was put into getting the skins that far under.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

It's great that we are currently under the cap by ~10 mill and i don't think we are going to use a significant amount of that to sign any more FA's but one thing to consider is out draft picks. If we trade for more picks (which I hope we do) then we may need to sign as many as 7 players. Even at the rookie minimum for some of those picks they are going to take a chunk out of that 10 mill. Also don't forget that we need a TE and possibly a starting OG (thru FA possibly). So if we do use any excess money left after all these factors we aren't going to have much to help us prorate salary hits for next year.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

good read, but don't we go over the same paranoia every year? the skins capologist is far and away the best in the business. i have no worries until the sky IS actually falling

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

I have been hearing about this for years now - I am sure someday it will catch up with us, but i am also sure that our FO has a plan in place, just like last year they had a plan in place in case the new CBA wasn't signed. Until we actually see it all happen I wouldn't be to concerned over it.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

Honestly, I think their current plan is to win while Joe Gibbs is the head coach here. I mean to say that they are willing to make a huge sacrifice in order to try to win right now. The future consequences may be an afterthought for trying to win it all in 2007.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

We need to cut Daniels, Joe S., Springs, Wynn, Fletcher, Arch and Griff in 08. Regardless of the cap hits. Plus bring in a run stopping DE for Carter on run downs. Rebuilding the defense through the 08 draft and maybe a YOUNG FA or two is what we really need to do. It's time. We don't have anybody on our front 7 who scares the opposing offense and hanging on to some average 30 + players makes no sense. We need to get younger and cheaper and it's going to take time.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=Skinz4life;286850]I have been hearing about this for years now - I am sure someday it will catch up with us, but i am also sure that our FO has a plan in place, just like last year they had a plan in place in case the new CBA wasn't signed. Until we actually see it all happen I wouldn't be to concerned over it.[/quote]

The 'Plan' last year if the cba wasn't signed was to ask virtually 1/3 of the team to take pay cuts, not restructures as there was no cba & thus no cap in place for restructures to take place. If that didn't work, the plan was to pray & hope it worked.

Not to sound too cynical, but there was hardly a 'plan' in place last year if the cba wasn't signed. We were in cap hell. Not even Eric S. & the rest of the front office could get around that mess, we would've had to cut key players if the cba wasn't agreed upon.

There will be another year like that at the end of the current cba & I think the front office under Gibbs' direction, is addressing this now. They're attempting to restructure key guys & reduce salaries of others who they're prepared to cut.

Good post GT

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=skinsfan69;286853]We need to cut Daniels, Joe S., Springs, Wynn, Fletcher, Arch and Griff in 08. Regardless of the cap hits. Plus bring in a run stopping DE for Carter on run downs. Rebuilding the defense through the 08 draft and maybe a YOUNG FA or two is what we really need to do. It's time. We don't have anybody on our front 7 who scares the opposing offense and hanging on to some average 30 + players makes no sense. We need to get younger and cheaper and it's going to take time.[/quote]We are pretty much stuck with Archuleta, Lloyd, Randle El and Carter. Even with all of our cap room this year an 8 million plus hit for cutting any of the above guys (not that we'd want to cut Randle El) is just too much to swallow. They will all be Skins for the next two seasons guarenteed, and then maybe if we keep the cap space open, we can afford to cut 1-2 of those guys prior to 2009. Until then they have to stay on the 53 man roster, although if Arch and Lloyd continue to suck, we could make them inactive.

But you are absolutely right on one big thing: this defense needs a ton of fresh blood.

Of the defensive players we have right now, only the following are certain to be rostered come this time next year:

DE: Carter, Evans
DT: Montgomery, Golston
LB: Fletcher, McIntosh, K. Campbell
CB: Rogers, Smoot, Jimoh
S: Taylor, Arch, Fox, Doughty

You really can't make much of a defense out of that, and we simply aren't going to have the money to sign a starting caliber player. So any holes on that defense must be filled through the next two drafts. Obviously, that's gotta start with DT, but also DE and LB. CB and Safety are fine IF Carlos Rogers has a "rebound" season. It's a stretch to rely on him as a No. 1, but the only other choices we have would be to a) rely on Smoot as the No. 1, or b) draft a rookie CB with our 2nd rounder in 2008. If Rogers does pan out, we'll just have to address the nickel next year with, say maybe a 4th rounder.

Safety really won't be a problem unless Sean Taylor continues to play pass coverage with his head up his ass. Fox can start, but I'm going to gamble that Arch wins the starting job back.

I do have a feeling that they are going to keep Washington on board one more year than they should, but if they are wise, they will let his play in 2007 dictate whether he deserves to return.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

The only thing the front office has done well in the past 10years is spend outrageous amounts of money and get under the cap. I have no doubt that this will be the case in 08 and beyond. I'm more concerned about who is going to get a windfall of cash next year and not live up to the money or the hype (see lloyd, trotter, sanders, george, etc etc...). If we could figure out a way to get the same results out of the player development and personnel evaluation departments as accounting and we wouldn't just win the Super Bowl in March.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=love them hogs;286833]I have a question.If for some strange reason we dont use up all of our cap space this year,could we give that extra money to players now to lower there cap hit for next year?[/quote]This is kind of tricky from a human nature standpoint. If you frontload a players deal and he ends up outperforming that deal, and then he sees his pay [B]cut[/B] the next year as a trade off for front loading the deal, he's going to feel like he's getting the shaft. Sure he signed his deal in good faith, but if there wasn't a human factor in it, holdouts wouldn't exist.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=rypper11;286884]The only thing the front office has done well in the past 10years is spend outrageous amounts of money and get under the cap. I have no doubt that this will be the case in 08 and beyond. I'm more concerned about who is going to get a windfall of cash next year and not live up to the money or the hype (see lloyd, trotter, sanders, george, etc etc...). If we could figure out a way to get the same results out of the player development and personnel evaluation departments as accounting and we wouldn't just win the Super Bowl in March.[/quote]My inital post tries to show how this isn't possible. Sure some may want to do that, but it can't be done. It's because of the way the cap was structured before that we are in this mess. Our cap guys aren't any smarter than other cap guys, they are just willing to take measures that sacrifice the future to bail out of immediate cap trouble.

Here's the predicament we are in: we are still capable of further sacrificing the future, but we are NOT capable of avoiding all effects of our past actions any longer. Starting in 2008, we will not have money to sign a starting caliber FA. If we continue to restructure all veteran, 2009 will be a year where we can't sign any free agents nor will be able to resign our own players. By 2010 if we continue the restructuring everyone road, we won't have any veteran talent left. It's not going to get to that point though. We are going to either cut bait after this season (Which means all the vets I outlined in my first post go, minimal restructuring), or choose a more gradual, but longer, rebuilding process (we cut select vets, keep others, and have additional restructuring).

Either way, we already know that the 2008 shopping spree happened a year ago. Don't expect us to add any starting caliber players next year.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=dmek25;286846]good read, but don't we go over the same paranoia every year? the skins capologist is far and away the best in the business. i have no worries until the sky IS actually falling[/quote]This year we were in a pretty good situation. I mean, the raw numbers looked bad, but all the players acquired in the 2006 spending spree still have low cap totals this year. Next year, every member of that class skyrockets.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

GTripp, I'm going to respond to your first post in this thread, but I'm not going to quote it because between my response and the length of your first one, I think the Warpath will crash, LOL.

First, good post. I agree with the majority of what you said. I agree that because we're going to be up against the cap for the next few seasons, we really need to hit on our draft picks, especially 2nd and 3rd round type draft picks (ahem, we need to trade out of the 6th spot) because those 2nd and 3rd rounders tend to yield the greatest talent-to-cap space ratio of all draft spots.

Your analysis is good, but I think the following things are going to ease the 2008 situation:

1) First, the 'Skins would not have cleared $10 million in cap space at this point if they did not have a plan to use it. I can see people criticizing this front office's talent evaluation skills, but they definitely know how massage the cap. The fact that they've cleared this much cap room tells me that either:
a) They're planning to trade Springs and take his cap hit all this season.
b) They're planning to cut either Archuleta or Brandon Lloyd and absorb the entire cap hit this season.

Either one of those moves would save a good chunk from the 08 cap. Clearing Archuleta or Lloyd this year would save us approx 4 million each in 08. Clearing Springs, which seems extremely likely IMHO, would save us $7.3 million in 08. I guess you had him making it to 08, so the incremental benefit to your numbers would be $5 million.

2) And the big one, they have oodles of options to restructure players. In 2008, the following players are on schedule for more than a $4 million base salary (excluding Brunell cause he'll be outta here and Springs because of reasons already mentioned): Griffin, Washington, Samuels, Jansen, Thomas, and Portis. There's an opportunity to restructure all of these contracts and save up to $10-$15 million in 08 cap space just on restructures alone. Of course, as you say, we'd kick the hit into 09 and create more headaches down the road. And as I look at 2009, I can see that being the year we decide to either "sh*t or get off the pot" with our current core of guys. That would make 2008 our last year with our current core group. And it just so happens that 2008 is also the last year of Gibbs' current contract. But as for 2008, I can see the team creating plenty of space.

If we want to have any kind of foundation to move into 2009 and beyond, we need to trade down and hit on multiple picks now. And we need to keep our draft picks in the 08 draft, and hit on those as well. Because in 2009, we're quite possibly looking at saying goodbye to a few good players.

This is not to say the Skins won't be able to restructure and create more cap room in 2009. After all, at that point the cap should be about 125 million, which gives us leeway.

But all in all your post was great because as you look at the cap situation and begin to plan for the next three years, the only logical conclusion is we need to hit on multiple draft picks and start developing talent in-house. Seems to me the team has already realized this. Hopefully we hit it big on a couple of these rooks.

Good thread.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=GTripp0012;286882]We are pretty much stuck with Archuleta, Lloyd, Randle El and Carter. Even with all of our cap room this year an 8 million plus hit for cutting any of the above guys (not that we'd want to cut Randle El) is just too much to swallow. They will all be Skins for the next two seasons guarenteed, and then maybe if we keep the cap space open, we can afford to cut 1-2 of those guys prior to 2009. Until then they have to stay on the 53 man roster, although if Arch and Lloyd continue to suck, we could make them inactive.

But you are absolutely right on one big thing: this defense needs a ton of fresh blood.

Of the defensive players we have right now, only the following are certain to be rostered come this time next year:

DE: Carter, Evans
DT: Montgomery, Golston
LB: Fletcher, McIntosh, K. Campbell
CB: Rogers, Smoot, Jimoh
S: Taylor, Arch, Fox, Doughty

You really can't make much of a defense out of that, and we simply aren't going to have the money to sign a starting caliber player. So any holes on that defense must be filled through the next two drafts. Obviously, that's gotta start with DT, but also DE and LB. CB and Safety are fine IF Carlos Rogers has a "rebound" season. It's a stretch to rely on him as a No. 1, but the only other choices we have would be to a) rely on Smoot as the No. 1, or b) draft a rookie CB with our 2nd rounder in 2008. If Rogers does pan out, we'll just have to address the nickel next year with, say maybe a 4th rounder.

Safety really won't be a problem unless Sean Taylor continues to play pass coverage with his head up his ass. Fox can start, but I'm going to gamble that Arch wins the starting job back.

I do have a feeling that they are going to keep Washington on board one more year than they should, but if they are wise, they will let his play in 2007 dictate whether he deserves to return.[/quote]

The future is not looking too good on defense. I hope we have one hell of a draft in 08 and hit a home run w/ our pick this year.

Fox and Arch can not play full time. I think Fox is worse than Arch. Not sure what they see in him. So there is another need. I'm hoping Peirson P. comes back and plays well.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

You do good work GTRIPP. Thanks for the post. The Redskins are clever with the cap. That does not make them clever with the roster. There [I]is[/I] a difference!

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

if they can restructure and extend guys till the next cba, they'll be fine, though we've been and will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage while we maintain such a high level of deadcap and overhead on crappy players.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=That Guy;286945]if they can restructure and extend guys till the next cba, they'll be fine, though we've been and will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage while we maintain such a high level of deadcap and overhead on crappy players.[/quote]

This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=Schneed10;286974]This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.[/quote]

until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=GTripp0012;286796]I thought this would be an effective way to show how constantly restructuring can bite ones team in the balls.

I obtained all the following information from Canuck's Cap Sheets:

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with [SIZE=4][B]33 players[/B][/SIZE][SIZE=2] under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.[/SIZE]

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million [B]before free agency[/B] next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st. There will be numerous veteran cuts and probably a few restructures. Not only are we going to have to free up 14 million, but most likely 20 million to put us 6 million under so we can fill out the remaining 9 roster spots PLUS a roster spot for every cut we make to get under the cap. The cuts will likely include any veteran whose net cap gain would net us 1.5 or more million.

-Brunell's contract automatically voids, saving us 3.5 million.
-If Springs makes it this far, cutting him saves 2.5 million.
-Cutting Griffin saves 1.5 million.
-Cutting Daniels saves 3.0 million.
-Cutting Marcus Wasington saves 2.5 million.
-If we get desperate, cutting Betts and Rabach save about 1.3 million each.
-Guys like Lloyd and Arch and Carter still deliever sizable cap hits, meaning they will be Redskins through 2008 guarenteed.

As always we can restructure or make post June 1st cuts to save even more money in 2008. To a degree, we will have to do some of this. We can only free up 13 million by releasing the top 5 guys on that list. We will be forced to restructure (or declare our cuts as post June 1) to free up the final 7 million.

But that 7 million is going to be pushed into future years, and the 2009 cap situation is going to be even worse than this abomidable 2008 one.

It is imperitive that we keep our entire slate of 2008 draft picks. We are going to need to capitalize on those picks to help fill those empty (presumably 14) roster spots. Draft picks are always cap friendly in their rookie years and that's the main source of talent this team will have.

The only way this is going to go down easy is if we win a championship this year. It's not like the 2008 team will be completely void of talent, but I'm near certain that guys like Washington, Daniels, Griffin, Springs, Brunell, Saleve'a, Wynn, Marshall, Collins and Prioleau will not be on the roster come this time next year.

So imagine our current roster without those guys on it. Those are the holes we need to fill in our next two drafts.

I really am not trying to be a doom bringer here, but I wanted to prep you guys as to what the future holds.

But hey, if you didnt like the way the FO was going about things, maybe you see this in a postive light (if you are seeing this in a positive light, ask yourself when the last time you saw your physician was).[/quote]
You sound like one of those guys on ESPN who bash us all the time for how we do things and then most here complain about the fact we get no love.LOL Snyder and the front off have worked this cap every year and we hear the same stuff you have posted. I'll wait and see because I've heard this every year and it just never happens. Even if I'm not sure your right it was a good post.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=That Guy;286984]until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.[/quote]

Not drying up by any means. But what drove the growth over the last five years or so (which led up to the new TV deal) was an increase in TV ratings.

The more eyes watching TV, the more advertisers pay for the 30-second slots.

It'd be good if I could find some data and I'll try to do so, but I'm asserting that TV ratings aren't going to increase here in the US at the same rate that they've been increasing over the last few years.

The NFL could still expand TV viewership into Mexico, Europe, or Canada. That would spur growth, for sure.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=GTripp0012;286882]We are pretty much stuck with Archuleta, Lloyd, Randle El and Carter. Even with all of our cap room this year an 8 million plus hit for cutting any of the above guys (not that we'd want to cut Randle El) is just too much to swallow. They will all be Skins for the next two seasons guarenteed, and then maybe if we keep the cap space open, we can afford to cut 1-2 of those guys prior to 2009. Until then they have to stay on the 53 man roster, although if Arch and Lloyd continue to suck, we could make them inactive.

But you are absolutely right on one big thing: this defense needs a ton of fresh blood.

Of the defensive players we have right now, only the following are certain to be rostered come this time next year:

DE: Carter, Evans
DT: Montgomery, Golston
LB: Fletcher, McIntosh, K. Campbell
CB: Rogers, Smoot, Jimoh
S: Taylor, Arch, Fox, Doughty

You really can't make much of a defense out of that, and we simply aren't going to have the money to sign a starting caliber player. So any holes on that defense must be filled through the next two drafts. Obviously, that's gotta start with DT, but also DE and LB. CB and Safety are fine IF Carlos Rogers has a "rebound" season. It's a stretch to rely on him as a No. 1, but the only other choices we have would be to a) rely on Smoot as the No. 1, or b) draft a rookie CB with our 2nd rounder in 2008. If Rogers does pan out, we'll just have to address the nickel next year with, say maybe a 4th rounder.

Safety really won't be a problem unless Sean Taylor continues to play pass coverage with his head up his ass. Fox can start, but I'm going to gamble that Arch wins the starting job back.

I do have a feeling that they are going to keep Washington on board one more year than they should, but if they are wise, they will let his play in 2007 dictate whether he deserves to return.[/quote]

Evans? certain to be on the roster?
I don't know the cap like you, but I was surprised you had him on that list. What is his salary/cap impact?

I've been thinking all offseason that he is an almost certain cut from a football standpoint. Wynn & Daniels are old but are solid run stoppers & team leaders, I think Gibbs will want to keep them if possible. Evans on the other hand, seems to have played his best already, but doesn't have the upside that Wynn & Daniels do. He doesn't make what they do either, but I still can't see him making the team once we sign 1 or 2 DE's from the draft.

Again, that's just my take from a football perspective, not cap related. All your cap analysis is greatly appreciated.

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=freddyg12;287000]Evans? certain to be on the roster?
I don't know the cap like you, but I was surprised you had him on that list. What is his salary/cap impact?

I've been thinking all offseason that he is an almost certain cut from a football standpoint. Wynn & Daniels are old but are solid run stoppers & team leaders, I think Gibbs will want to keep them if possible. Evans on the other hand, seems to have played his best already, but doesn't have the upside that Wynn & Daniels do. He doesn't make what they do either, but I still can't see him making the team once we sign 1 or 2 DE's from the draft.

Again, that's just my take from a football perspective, not cap related. All your cap analysis is greatly appreciated.[/quote]Well, certain from a cap perspective. Obviously if he can't make the team this year (like we find 53 more deserving guys), he won't be on it next year

Re: Next Year's Cap Situation
 

[quote=Schneed10;286916]2) And the big one, they have oodles of options to restructure players. In 2008, the following players are on schedule for more than a $4 million base salary (excluding Brunell cause he'll be outta here and Springs because of reasons already mentioned): Griffin, Washington, Samuels, Jansen, Thomas, and Portis. There's an opportunity to restructure all of these contracts and save up to $10-$15 million in 08 cap space just on restructures alone. Of course, as you say, we'd kick the hit into 09 and create more headaches down the road. And as I look at 2009, I can see that being the year we decide to either "sh*t or get off the pot" with our current core of guys. That would make 2008 our last year with our current core group. And it just so happens that 2008 is also the last year of Gibbs' current contract. But as for 2008, I can see the team creating plenty of space.

If we want to have any kind of foundation to move into 2009 and beyond, we need to trade down and hit on multiple picks now. And we need to keep our draft picks in the 08 draft, and hit on those as well. Because in 2009, we're quite possibly looking at saying goodbye to a few good players.

This is not to say the Skins won't be able to restructure and create more cap room in 2009. After all, at that point the cap should be about 125 million, which gives us leeway.[/quote]From my understanding of the numbers we have, I felt our "sh*t or get off the pot" year is coming up in 2008. Although it's going to be impossible to field a team w/o any restructuring that year, we already have a pretty rough cap situation in 2009. I'd have to run the numbers with a lot more projections and guessing to test this hypothesis, but I'm concerned that if we push too much more money into that year (either restructuring or big FA contracts), the sky will indeed fall in 2009. I feel that we have the power right now to take measures to avoid that. But to avoid the sky falling situation in 2009, concessions have to be made [B]prior[/B] to 2008. Some at least. I'm sure one of us will look over the numbers for 2009 sometime down the road, and I may turn out to be totally and utterly wrong, but I just don't see the cap potential to pick up a solid starter in FA at any point over the next two years and still be able to get 51 contracts in under the cap including our draft picks.

And yes, the more I think about it Springs probably won't be a Redskin next year. These are the type of moves that will lighten the future burden. I know we need Griffin and Washington to be competitive next year, but I do feel that barring a pro bowl type year from either, restructuring them to keep them around for one more year would only breed more financial problems for that tricky 2009 season.

It's also interesting that we have pretty much the entire offense (Cooley being the exception) locked up with so much guarenteed money that we can't even afford to disassemble it. All the roster changes over the next three years are going to be defensive.

To be honest, I went into this analysis thinking the 2008 situation was going to be much much worse. But some key veteran cuts after this season will give us the cap space we need to at least stop the buck right here. I don't think this will prevent us from being competitive in 2008.

Unless Springs restructures, we won't be able to handle a 9 million dollar cap hit this year. If he does, I could see Lloyd or Arch getting the boot.