Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Clinton Portis has 325 carries through 16 games, thats the most in the NFL.

Portis has been very inconsistent this season. Most of the year, he struggled to find running lanes, averaging under 4 yards a carry. Recently, however, Portis has been playing great, as he does every December.

There is little doubt that putting the ball in the hands of a healthy Portis gives us our best chance to win in the playoffs on a weekly basis.

However, if we play more than one playoff game, it appears that Portis will carry the ball in excess of 300 times. No back not named Eric Dickerson has ever carried the ball more than 370 times and bounced back to have another good season the following season. The last time Portis broke the 340 threshold, he couldn't even make it through the first preseason drive without getting injured.

Think about Shaun Alexander's '06, and Larry Johnson's 07.

The question is, should we ride Clinton Portis in the playoffs, knowing full well that if we do, chances are that he will have an injury-riddled '08 campaign? Is it worth it?

Obviously if we went to the super bowl, it would be worth it. But what if we beat the Seahawks and lose to the Cowboys, and Portis carries 50 times between the two games. Have we made a mistake?

Can we possibly hope to win on the arm of our quarterback as opposed to the legs of our running back?

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Cant coach scared. What do you think would be said about Gibbs if he didn't use Portis the way we need to to win? He would be critcized to no end.

In the playoffs, there is no tommorrow if you don't win. Without Portis, we don't win. Plain and simple.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

i really like the way the skins are using Portis right now. he is getting his carries, but the skins are not just ramming him up the gut, play after play. i believe the way Portis is running right now, you have to run him, and run him some more. he really is getting better the longer the season goes on. the skins have the hottest quarterback, and hottest running back heading into the playoffs. is there one team in the NFC that the skins cant beat? right now the other teams are more worried about us, then we are about them. lets ride him

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

I guess we'd better shut him down now. It's not worth taking a shot at winning the whole thing.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

80% of the damage is already done assuming we play 4 more. This is the playoffs. Ride his ass till you have to shoot him down. In no way should we consider next season's injuries during the playoffs. He will have time to recover. We have a shot this year.

Even if we have no shot at all; he will only be playing 2 games then it isn't a big deal. If we do have a shot he will play 4 and it is worth it because we have a shot.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

It's playoff time. Give him the ball and spell him only when he's really tired. End of discussion.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[QUOTE=Mattyk72;399497]I guess we'd better shut him down now. It's not worth taking a shot at winning the whole thing.[/QUOTE]

Santana Moss got a little leg ding in the Cowboy game, too. Better shut him down for the preseason too. Gibbs looked a little tired. Maybe he should turn the reins over to GW for the remainder of the playoffs.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Portis does have a ton of carries this season, but the odd thing is these last few weeks, he looks the healthiest he has all season. He may be shortening his career by taking such a pounding, but I don't think that now is the time to limit his touches, and I honestly don't think Portis would want it any other way either.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[QUOTE=GTripp0012;399487]The last time Portis broke the 340 threshold, he couldn't even make it through the first preseason drive without getting injured.[/QUOTE]

Those two incidents needn't be related at all. It was a freak accident (landing awkwardly after tackling the Bengal that intercepted Brunell) that got him injured in the preseason.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

All the players in general, and Portis and Moss in particular, are playing such inspired football right now that I don't think you [U]can[/U] sit them, even if you tried. After Sellers had his concussion, the team hid his helmet in the locker room to keep him from re-entering. There isn't a player out there now that isn't bringing that attitude.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

While I can appreciate the concern over clinton's workload, what is the point of not running him? you don't win the presidency by winning just the primaries, you win the primaries to have a shot a winning the presidency.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[QUOTE=BrunellMVP?;399615]While I can appreciate the concern over clinton's workload, what is the point of not running him? you don't win the presidency by winning just the primaries, you win the primaries to have a shot a winning the presidency.[/QUOTE]

Agreed. Was that a paid political advertisement for someone running in 08?

GMAT

_______________
The only good politician is one that's doing good...for me....

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

i thought this thread was going to be about how we might wanna worry about portis having a down game in seattle after playing hard for the past 4 games . . .

i see your point gtripp and good use of references and stats, but like everyone has said this is the playoffs and you dont hold back or worry about next year.

go skins!

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[quote=hurrykaine;399611]Those two incidents needn't be related at all. It was a freak accident (landing awkwardly after tackling the Bengal that intercepted Brunell) that got him injured in the preseason.[/quote]

Yeah I don't see any direct connection either.

He'll have the offseason to rest up. Right now it's time for him to earn his pay, and he definitely has during this run.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

The numbers you cite are interesting, however, Portis looks better now than he did in September. I think he can handle a few more games. We don't really have a choice anyway. He's too important to what we're doing right now.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[quote=hurrykaine;399611]Those two incidents needn't be related at all. It was a freak accident (landing awkwardly after tackling the Bengal that intercepted Brunell) that got him injured in the preseason.[/quote]

As the man said himself..."It was some fluke shit [that I got injured on last year]"

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

This time of year is why you go after guys like Clinton Portis and Santana Moss in FA. This time of year is why you play guys like Clinton Portis and Santana Moss. 'nuff said.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

if he says he's good, he's good.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

I must say you usually have pretty good threads Tripp, but I don't understand this one at all.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

It's ridiculous to worry about 2008 when we're in the postseason now. I say ride Portis as far as he can take us in the playoffs. When you're one of a handful of teams with a shot to make a Super Bowl run, you don't worry about next season.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[QUOTE=SouperMeister;400298]It's ridiculous to worry about 2008 when we're in the postseason now. I say ride Portis as far as he can take us in the playoffs. When you're one of a handful of teams with a shot to make a Super Bowl run, you don't worry about next season.[/QUOTE]

Soup, you've had quite a few posts the past few days. I think we might have to sit you down for a spell so you're ready to post at full strength for the 2008 preseason ;)

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

[quote=SmootSmack;400299]Soup, you've had quite a few posts the past few days. I think we might have to sit you down for a spell so you're ready to post at full strength for the 2008 preseason ;)[/quote]Touché!!!

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Not sure what you are getting at. Obviously, Collins, Clinton, Santana, n' Cooley have got us in the playoffs. He's finally getting healthy after all the issues he had in the offseason/preseason. I have to agree with others that he'll lobby for 30 touches a game, Joe will get him 30 touches a game, and that helps us against Seattle. To win, we'll need Collins and Portis to play well, but I'm not worried about next year, just the 2nd season and hopefully a W over the birds.

[quote=GTripp0012;399487]Clinton Portis has 325 carries through 16 games, thats the most in the NFL.

Portis has been very inconsistent this season. Most of the year, he struggled to find running lanes, averaging under 4 yards a carry. Recently, however, Portis has been playing great, as he does every December.

There is little doubt that putting the ball in the hands of a healthy Portis gives us our best chance to win in the playoffs on a weekly basis.

However, if we play more than one playoff game, it appears that Portis will carry the ball in excess of 300 times. No back not named Eric Dickerson has ever carried the ball more than 370 times and bounced back to have another good season the following season. The last time Portis broke the 340 threshold, he couldn't even make it through the first preseason drive without getting injured.

Think about Shaun Alexander's '06, and Larry Johnson's 07.

The question is, should we ride Clinton Portis in the playoffs, knowing full well that if we do, chances are that he will have an injury-riddled '08 campaign? Is it worth it?

Obviously if we went to the super bowl, it would be worth it. But what if we beat the Seahawks and lose to the Cowboys, and Portis carries 50 times between the two games. Have we made a mistake?

Can we possibly hope to win on the arm of our quarterback as opposed to the legs of our running back?[/quote]

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

That is rediculous. That is just like saying "No NFC 6th Seed has ever won the superbowl so let's give up." Of course we use him to carry the load, if he is getting the job done. In case you have forgot, He's Clinton "Choo Choo" Portis.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

G Tripp, WTF man. You're the superhero of intelligent analysis on this site, you must have eaten some Kryptonite Flakes for breakfast.

Do we really think Portis is any more likely to get hurt in 2008 by playing him in the playoffs instead of shutting him down? There's nothing we can do about it. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. That's why we signed Betts.

Retarded thread.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

325 touches isn't a lot. Just because it's a down year for most backs doesn't mean that CP is getting overused. Just look at past years:[LIST][*] [URL="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=15868ADD0F620F3356F1902D759FED0A?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2006&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1"]2006[/URL] - 325 was the 8th most touches.[*] [URL="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=9E1FF1301EFB9E427B623596B9220161?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2005&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1"]2005[/URL] - tied for 8th most touches[*] [URL="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=9BCF790B26C0658A74D2D6FA7B8F9148?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2004&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1"]2004[/URL] - 8th most touches[*] [URL="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=41E8A95DC830CA51E984655989D7093E?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2003&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1"]2003[/URL] - 8th most touches[*] [URL="http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=7061F6FDF774FAD82613388BF42CD680?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2002&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1"]2002[/URL] - tied for 4th[/LIST]I'm noticing a pattern...

Point is - 20 carries/game is extremely reasonable for a top 10 back.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

This thread might have a worthy point if Portis was banged up and losing a step, but he's not. He seems to be playing his best ball of the year these last few weeks and he looks as fresh as ever.

In 2005 at this time he was definitely slowing down and banged up, this year that's simply not the case.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

The Curse of 370 is real, but you can't worry about that now. Darksets makes a good point and 325 carries is a lot, but it is actually usually a fairly typical number for lead backs. In Denver Portis used to only carry 270 times, but in 2005 he had 340 carries.

Here's something to look into, does The Curse of 370 hold when backs get 370 carries INCLUDING the post-season? I would bet that many backs who go through multiple post-season games end up with 370+ carries for the season. I think, however, that the 370 carry mark holds only for the number of regular season carries (and then post-season carries on top of that).

EDIT:

Found an answer to the question. Looks like post-season carries do count (which I guess makes sense ... duh). Like I said, can't worry about that now but it will bear watching next year. It's not a totally ridiculous thread, IMHO, but not much to be done at this point in time. I'm also not 100% convinced by the numbers and wonder if the causal link is that direct. I think other factors must be involved as well.

[URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/01/ramblings/stat-analysis/4764/"]FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007[/URL]

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Man, you ride this guy until he gives out, then you rest him and put in your very capable backup.

also, there are many awesome unheralded backs coming out in the draft this year, if we want a change. I heard somewhere that Rock may be looking for a bit more money, but I don't remember where I heard that. If he leaves, I'd be all for drafting a young fresh back.

Re: Clinton Portis' Workload
 

Well Gibbs tried resting him in the Dallas game and CP wanted back in to get to 100 yards rushing. I think CP is in better health now than in the start of the season.