JLC: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[url=http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/2008/04/the_numbers_dont_lie.html#more]The Numbers Don't Lie - Redskins Insider[/url]

It's been impossible not to notice the stark contrast between this off season and most every one prior under Dan Snyder/Vinny Cerrato. Even in previous years where spending was down, they were always chasing at least a few free agents from the onset, wining and dining players at the start of free agency, etc.

Sure, Snyder's other businesses are in the tank and the economy is stumbling, and the Redskins had very limited cap space, especially when compared to most other teams. But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close.

Since 2000, the first year Snyder really had control of the team (he took over in the summer of 1999, with the off season over and the roster largely ser), the Redskins have been the most inefficient team in the NFL, regardless of the coach, starting quarterback, or anything else.

I got my hands on some figures compiled by the NFL Management Council on dead cap, and "committed cash" - which shows what teams really spend on players in any given year (the salary cap is soft and this shows what teams really spent, in real dollars included all bonuses and incentives in that league year, not just cap dollars spent). These figures are distributed to teams and the NFLPA, and I obtained them through league sources.

Here are the top 5 spending teams, in committed cash, since 2000:

1 Redskins $747 million
2 Indy $710 million
3 Balt $708 million
4 Dallas $700 million
5 New England - $694 million

Three of those 5 teams won Super Bowls, the other two reside in the NFC East

How about the top 5 teams in dead cap space since 2000?

1 Redskins $83 million
2 San Fran $80 million
3 Denver -$80 million
4 Tennessee $78 million
5 Oakland $75 million

That's like giving away one year of payroll every 8 seasons (the 2004 NFL cap was $80 million, as a comparison).
Yikes, not the company you want to keep, eh? The 49ers and Raiders have had front offices in perpetual disarray, Denver just fired its GM and the Titans let Floyd Reese go a year ago and gutted their aging team after nearly missing on the Super Bowl a few times early this decade.

So, for all of that spending,, and binging and purging, where do the Skins rank in wins since 2000 - 23rd with 58 wins. They won 1 playoff game, no division titles and hosted no playoff games.

"This stuff right here, these numbers, this is the NFL's version of 'Moneyball,'" said one high ranking official who had studying the spreadsheets from the management council. "This is how you grade the managers. This is how you evaluate the guys paid to do the evaluating. The numbers don't lie."

Let's look more closely at the short term. Dead cap totals for the past three years:

1 Tenn - $65 million
2 Houston - $57 million
3 Redskins $55 million
4 Miami - $50 million
5 Denver - $49 million

Now, as we went over, the Titans got rid of Reese - who has had a long and distinguished career and has a strong coaching backround along with his front office work - and went with a new regime. Houston parted with Charley Casserly, who ran and put together that expansion team. Denver fired its GM a few weeks back - though much of the blame must go to the ubber-powerful head coach there as well - and Miami completely overhauled its front office a few months back, with The Tuna ushering in a new regime.

What did the Redskins do? They handed the keys to the entire kingdom to Cerrato, the only constant of the Snyder era, who has been repeatedly promoted. The same guy who, a year ago, according to league sources, the Redskins very nearly replaced or at least demoted, with Gibbs coming very close to hiring someone else to oversee the personnel department.

This, my friends, is why the rest of the league looks at the Redskins as they do when it comes to these things. This is why so many people are dubious about this Snyder/Cerrato tandem working out.

Take a look at the past 4 years, The era of the much talked about Gibbs/Cerrato/Snyder front office model, and no team spent more in committed cash - $431 million - but at least they got two playoff appearances for that. And just because the Redskins aren't signing a bunch of free agents this season does not mean they will not have high committed cash totals, as they continue to rework 10 contracts each off season and guarantee huge chunks of money to aging players. The dead cap waste has been a constant of Snyder's as well. Trust me, Joe Gibbs never claimed to be a master salary negotiator, that's not why he was there. That's Snyder and Cerrato's domain, with their cap guy, Eric Schaffer. Gibbs loved to spend but never pretended to be a cap guru.

Imagine what a force the Redskins could have been had they actually found a way to utilize those massive resources at even close to the rate of most of the NFL's top front offices? They could be a juggernaut, the NFC's Patriots, but they have been miss-managed on many fronts in terms of player acquisitions and payroll.

Four years ago, prior to Gibbs first training camp back, Snyder and Cerrato told me they had learned from their mistakes, had the salary cap figured out and were close to winning their first Super Bowl. They had learned from their mistakes, and were better for it. Won't get fooled again, they said.

Two years ago, through an outside PR firm Snyder had hired to help try to restore his image at the time, he made the same remarks via email to me: Learned from the past, older and wiser now, got things better figured out now, ready to give the city a winner.

During the Gibbs departure press conference we got more of the same - more stable now, learned from our mistakes, learned from Coach Joe, yada, yada yada, And perhaps, finally, they have. Showing some restraint in a poor free agent market with limited available cap space is a positive step no doubt.

But this is also a veteran team, particularly aging at some key spots on both sides of the line, and the years of restructured contracts has continued to push huge cap sums into the future. So this is why I cast a skeptical eye (and, oh yeah, it's also part of my job). I tend to fall back on that axiom Bush butchers - "Fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

We'll see if they become demons at the draft table. We'll see how they fare in player development. We'll see how they manage the cap. We'll see if they make cold, calculated decisions about rebuilding and shedding high priced veterans, or if they keep redoing every contract they can, convinced that THIS is the year.

Attach the W's and L's to Snyder and Cerrato, for better or worse, and keep your fingers crossed.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

People have absolutely nothing to do in the offseason. I cringe and get pissed everytime I hear someone say that Snyder couldn't afford to make any offseason moves, or that they couldn't continue elaborate spending. Newsflash: Yes, they could have, but they chose not to. Here is another newsflash; if you are the top 1 or 2 money making franchises in the NFL, or even in the United States; you can afford to do whatever the hell you want.

Plain and simple, they had the cap figured out, and they are not, and never were in cap hell.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

The statement that they couldn't continue doing it is wrong. Dead wrong. The statement that it wasn't working is true.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;437451]People have absolutely nothing to do in the offseason. I cringe and get pissed everytime I hear someone say that Snyder couldn't afford to make any offseason moves, or that they couldn't continue elaborate spending. Newsflash: Yes, they could have, but they chose not to. Here is another newsflash; if you are the top 1 or 2 money making franchises in the NFL, or even in the United States; you can afford to do whatever the hell you want.

Plain and simple, they had the cap figured out, and they are not, and never were in cap hell.[/QUOTE]

Amen

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

And I love the title "Number don't lie". That is very true but the the important thing is to understand what they are telling you.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

Is this really anything new? I think we're well aware that the Redskins have spent a ton of money since Snyder took over without much success. Hopefully making the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons is an indication that things are changing for the better.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

I am just tired of people taking shots at Danny and the organization. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. It comes with the territory, but the constant critisism is getting annoying.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

We've made horrible mistakes in player acquisition, which has led to the high ranking in deadcap money. Brandon Lloyd, Adam Archuleta, TJ Duckett, these were terrible moves that the front office deserves to be grilled on. But to say that we couldn't afford to continue spending if we wanted was flat out incorrect. The team had the capability to generate up to $16 million in cap room this year through contract restructures, but they did not. They stopped at $10 million in room.

They've cleared that space for a good reason. Everyone likes to say a player trade is on the way, but I'm not so sure. I think it's likely there to accomodate a very large payout in the form of an extension for our franchise QB, which will probably get negotiated sometime during 2008.

J-La's review is essentially a look back at the last 7 or 3 years. But his numbers are not going to reflect the positive steps the team has been taking in the last year. Basically, all he's saying is the Redskins have sucked at all things football over the last 7 years. No shit, Sherlock, but tell me what you think of what they're doing NOW.

You're a reporter, not a historian. I want your insight, not your freakin evaluation of the past, we're all capable of that.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

The media really has run with this notion that the Skins were cap strapped this year and that's why they weren't aggressive in free agency. I cringe when I hear anyone say it now.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

I think J-La is short sighted a lot when it comes to the Skins. I believe he has reason to question what they are doing because of the evidence of our success but he relies way too much on "league sources" to tell him what to think. Most of these "league sources" are probably a small set of people who may or may not have biases against the Skins or the way they do things. I can see a capologist from Philly for example being totally blown away by the way the Skins do things cap wise and then inferring that their monetary policies simply don't work based on their football success when the two things are not as correlated as some simple minded football people would like to believe. How you handle the cap money wise doesn't have a ton of effect on your football success in the long term but talent evaluation does. Bash them for that but as for cap management they are the best in the league simply because their cash on hand allows them so much flexibility and opportunity.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=Mattyk72;437485]The media really has run with this notion that the Skins were cap strapped this year and that's why they weren't aggressive in free agency. I cringe when I hear anyone say it now.[/quote]

That is what I was trying to say. I like the way that you worded it better. Simple and effective.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[QUOTE=Coff;437487]What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.[/QUOTE]

I think just spewing numbers and making inferences about their meaning is not a well written article. To correlate poor football success with dead cap space or cash outlay is tenuous at best. Again, these guys need to be smart enough to understand what the numbers are telling them and what the numbers aren't telling them.

For example one (incorrect) way to interpret the cash outlay number is to say that because of our cash outlay we have won more games than we should have because our talent evaluation has been awful. Now that number doesn't really say that but it doesn't say that we have been bad either. In fact cash outlay seems completely irrelevant to me when it comes to football. Dead space probably seems to more closely correlates to football success because it theoretically effects the on field talent but if you really examine how the skins manage the cap you might realize that dead space doesn't effect them much at all because....you guessed it, cash outlay mostly offsets dead space. So the two actually in economic terms cancel each other out to a certain degree.

But simple minded football people see things through the way they think is right to do something. I tend to think with better talent evaluation our management style of the cap is FAR superior than others. BUT, huge but here, our style requires cash resources that probably 4 or 5 teams in the league can handle.

All in all we just need to keep spending the money the same way but on better talent. I think we have undoubtedly been doing that over the last 3-4 years.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

As others noted, this ignores the actions Cerrato has taken since he officially took over. I've been less than impressed with JLC's reporting lately. His blogging is excellent, though.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=Coff;437487]What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.[/quote]


[COLOR=black]I was one of his biggest critics. What is ticking me off is that there is nothing new to report and the press keeps dwelling on the past with their well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=black]The fact of the matter is that he is changing his approach, but his finacial abilty remains. If he fails this year, then the press can put out a well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder, and tell us all how badly he sucks. As it stands right now, we made the playoffs and didn't overpay for crap this offseason. There is no need for this offseason driven, over analytical, criticizing trash right now.[/COLOR]

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

If the redskins dont use all of their salary cap space, will they use it to write off Lloyd's cap hit this year, instead of splitting it over the next two years?

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=angryssg;437496][COLOR=black]I was one of his biggest critics. What is ticking me off is that there is nothing new to report and the press keeps dwelling on the past with their well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=black]The fact of the matter is that he is changing his approach, but his finacial abilty remains. If he fails this year, then the press can put out a well documented, well researched, and thorough examination of the Redskins organization under Snyder, and tell us all how badly he sucks. As it stands right now, we made the playoffs and didn't overpay for crap this offseason. There is no need for this offseason driven, over analytical, criticizing, trash right now.[/COLOR][/quote]

I think JLC is overly critical of the Skins at times, but I also think that Snyder controls a good amount of media too [i.e. George and Larry Michael(s)] so it is good to at least have the Post offering a foil (that isn't uninformed such is the case with much national media). A blog entry saying 'we'll wait and see' also wouldn't take very long to read or drive much interest so I also understand why JLC wouldn't want to do something like that.

I also think that you kind of misread the entry when you say that he implies that the Skins didn't have the cap space to pursue free agents. He wrote, "But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close," which I take to mean that as a long-term strategy spending lots of dollars on free agent aquisitions was not going to lead to success, not that they were completely unable to do so if they wished this year.

If you want to sum up that article in a sentence it might read, "All the NFL teams that have produced as much dead cap as the Redskins have overhauled their FO structure but the Redskins gave their guy a promotion." You might respond by saying that the Redskins have made the playoffs two of the past three seasons and also that the promotion of Cerrato actually does represent a reorganization of sorts since the coach/president role no longer exists. There are probably some other arguments you can make as well. I just don't know that you can really slam JLC for saying they didn't have the cap space because that isn't how I read what he is saying.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=SC Skins Fan;437504]I think JLC is overly critical of the Skins at times, but I also think that Snyder controls a good amount of media too [i.e. George and Larry Michael(s)] so it is good to at least have the Post offering a foil (that isn't uninformed such is the case with much national media). A blog entry saying 'we'll wait and see' also wouldn't take very long to read or drive much interest so I also understand why JLC wouldn't want to do something like that.

[B]I also think that you kind of misread[/B] the entry when you say that he implies that the Skins didn't have the cap space to pursue free agents. He wrote, "But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close," which I take to mean that as a long-term strategy spending lots of dollars on free agent aquisitions was not going to lead to success, not that they were completely unable to do so if they wished this year.

If you want to sum up that article in a sentence it might read, "All the NFL teams that have produced as much dead cap as the Redskins have overhauled their FO structure but the Redskins gave their guy a promotion." You might respond by saying that the Redskins have made the playoffs two of the past three seasons and also that the promotion of Cerrato actually does represent a reorganization of sorts since the coach/president role no longer exists. There are probably some other arguments you can make as well. I just don't know that you can really slam JLC for saying they didn't have the cap space because that isn't how I read what he is saying.[/quote]


Good observation. JLC's blog was just the straw that broke the camel's back. I am tired of the entire media talking about the Redskins being strapped for cash or cap space and unable to make moves this offseason. When I read something remotely related to that in JLC's blog I erupted. I do however, stand beside my comments and do not appologize.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=T.O.Killa;437503]If the redskins dont use all of their salary cap space, will they use it to write off Lloyd's cap hit this year, instead of splitting it over the next two years?[/quote]

No they can't do that, they already designated him a June 1 cut, so they're stuck with carrying him over the next two years. But I think they'll use the cap space, if not for trades, then for extending JC.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=Schneed10;437506]No they can't do that, they already designated him a June 1 cut, so they're stuck with carrying him over the next two years. But I think they'll use the cap space, if not for trades, then for extending JC.[/quote]

I recall reading something that Snyder said at the Owners' meetings that went something like "We will or have always used our cap space". Extending JC would be a smart move IMO.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=Coff;437487]What I find annoying is the "knee jerk reaction" criticism and uninformed criticism. The sort of criticism in the JLC article is neither of these. This is a well documented, well researched and thorough examination of the Redskin organization under Snyder. The simple fact is, he has thus far been unsuccessful as an owner, and at the same time has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself with the contracts he has given to players. Of course he will be criticized, and deservedly so.

There are those who automatically criticize Snyder, and there are those who will automatically defend him; both are annoying. Personally, I would have trouble criticizing JLC for this article, because it is so well written, and I think those who do criticize it see Snyder through rose colored glasses and will defend him at any point.[/quote]

Good post, JLC isn't saying that the changes are all due to lack of cap space. He doesn't say that at all, he merely is pointing out the past & how he's heard the same things from Snyder before. He gives them credit, but also says he'll have a "skeptical eye." How can anyone not given the history?

His statements about Gibbs wanting to repace vinny in the personnel dept. is quite revealing. I remember the rumor being floated here that there would be a new scouting dept. but never heard of vinny getting the axe. Given Vinny's promotion, Gibbs' opinion of him may have something to do w/Gibbs leaving.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[QUOTE=angryssg;437451]People have absolutely nothing to do in the offseason. I cringe and get pissed everytime I hear someone say that Snyder couldn't afford to make any offseason moves, or that they couldn't continue elaborate spending. Newsflash: Yes, they could have, but they chose not to. Here is another newsflash; if you are the top 1 or 2 money making franchises in the NFL, or even in the United States; you can afford to do whatever the hell you want.

Plain and simple, they had the cap figured out, and they are not, and never were in cap hell.[/QUOTE]

Tend to agree with this. Snyder and Vinny could have twisted the numbers, restructured contracts, and basically mortgage their future again in order to get free agents. They chose not to. It's like credit cards: eventually all of those bills are going to have to be paid.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=BAFGA;437510]Tend to agree with this. Snyder and Vinny could have twisted the numbers, restructured contracts, and basically mortgage their future again in order to get free agents. They chose not to. It's like credit cards: eventually all of those bills are going to have to be paid.[/quote]

Actually i believe we did re-work a # of contracts this year to get a little cap room. Of course we have only signed our own FA's this year.

JLC really only mentioned the neg's although there are some positives. The #'s I use is wins & losses under Snyder and Cerrato. Therein lies my concern w/ DS and VC.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=redsk1;437517]Actually i believe we did re-work a # of contracts this year to get a little cap room. Of course we have only signed our own FA's this year.

JLC really only mentioned the neg's although there are some positives. The #'s I use is [B]wins & losses under Snyder and Cerrato. Therein lies my concern w/ DS and VC[/B].[/quote]

Which speaks to talent evaluation, but not to salary cap management. The problem has never been that we've been [U]constrained[/U] by the cap, preventing us from getting who we wanted. The problem has been that too many of the guys we got were failures.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

This point about too many busts is dead on. Had the money been spent (and had we even had tons of dead cap space) but obtained players who performed well and led to a spate of winning seasons and playoff runs, no one would care about the amounts spent or resulting dead cap space. It is about Ws and Ls, and it is a fair criticism that the Snyder/Cerrato brain trust has not been great in that regard. The buck does stop with them.

Having said all that, I also agree that it is better to look forward, and the restraint we've shown this offseason and the commitment to continuity (shown in virtually every instance, save Gregg Williams) is encoraging.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

Well, let's not act like restructuring 30 million dollars in salary every season is sustainable. It isn't. It wasn't going to be in 2006, and it wouldn't have been in 2010 if we had continued our old ways.

However, what is sustainable is the building of a core through free agency (like in 2004), and then it is supplimented by draft picks to be the backups to the core players. That was our original plan, although it took us some time to get the depth in there because we spend a ton of picks to build that core through trades.

Now we have picks again, and now we have depth. The "rebuilding" stage appears to be complete: This is a talented team, and we have picks to spend on youth.

This free agency avoidance was merely the next step for the team. Once we have a starting lineup we are happy with, we can move into the stage of sustaining...as oppposed to building.

The next step is to use the draft so that we have the money to extend our current players without restrucutring a bunch of veteran money every season.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=calia;437526]This point about too many busts is dead on. Had the money been spent (and had we even had tons of dead cap space) but obtained players who performed well and led to a spate of winning seasons and playoff runs, no one would care about the amounts spent or resulting dead cap space. It is about Ws and Ls, and it is a fair criticism that the Snyder/Cerrato brain trust has not been great in that regard. The buck does stop with them.

Having said all that, I also agree that it is better to look forward, and the restraint we've shown this offseason and the commitment to continuity (shown in virtually every instance, save Gregg Williams) is encoraging.[/quote]

Overall, I too would agree w/Schneed's statement about talent evaluation, but it goes further than that. It's not just the terrible value that we got out of loyd, he cost a 3rd & 4th round pick. Coles played well for us, but he cost draft picks & big $ too.

This has been more than a talent evaluation problem, it's been a total mismanagement of the cap as it pertains to value (please don't anyone reply that we're never in "cap hell" & that our capologist can fix it, I'm not arguing that, though I could). The poor talent evaluation of free agents or traded players is compounded when draft picks are involved.

In a nutshell, it seems to me that max. value in the cap is through draft picks:

Draft picks = less cap space & $, youth, & low risk other than 1st round.

Free agents/vets = theoretically known commodity, age, & cap space is locked into contracts forcing team to either keep player, cut & take a cap hit, or restructure & delay 'cap hell' to the end of the cba a la 2006.

In addition, the lack of priority on the draft has kept the team from building depth & developing players from within. Fortunately we've seen real examples of the scouts & coaches getting solid guys in the draft & undrafted free agents, e.g. Heyer, Alexander, Mongomery, Golston.

My only real criticism of JLC's article is that maybe he should've noted it more that re-signing our guys 1st is a change in itself. He mentioned the signings but not the significance of them. I think those signings - Collins, Rock, Frost & Fabini - are HUGE as the front office is sending a message that they want to keep their guys first. Re-sign JC next year & w/a good draft class this team could be in good shape.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=GTripp0012;437536]Well, let's not act like restructuring 30 million dollars in salary every season is sustainable. It isn't. It wasn't going to be in 2006, and it wouldn't have been in 2010 if we had continued our old ways.

However, what is sustainable is the building of a core through free agency (like in 2004), and then it is supplimented by draft picks to be the backups to the core players. That was our original plan, although it took us some time to get the depth in there because we spend a ton of picks to build that core through trades.

Now we have picks again, and now we have depth. The "rebuilding" stage appears to be complete: This is a talented team, and we have picks to spend on youth.

This free agency avoidance was merely the next step for the team. Once we have a starting lineup we are happy with, we can move into the stage of sustaining...as oppposed to building.

The next step is to use the draft so that we have the money to extend our current players without restrucutring a bunch of veteran money every season.[/quote]

I agree fully. I get tired of the opinion that because we clear up cap space one season that means we're in good shap w/the cap. We almost got to see how bad things were in 06 when the cba was about to expire.

Yes, we would've been in cap hell if a new deal was not struck.

good points about the draft, about the same thing I was saying earlier, we burned draft picks in trades & that really hurt over time.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

Whatever the history, it does seem that we're taking a new approach this year, and that's something. As for the numbers, if you're making the most money as a franchise, you can play money ball. The fact is, it's not a bad model, given the number of teams who spend a lot that have won superbowls. I completely agree that the issue is much more on talent evaluation. I really do wonder where the blame for Arch and Lloyd lies. My guess is it's GW and Gibbs, respectively, and not Vinny. Could be wrong there, but with AA, it certainly seems like a reasonable hypothesis.

Dead cap results when you make bad talent evaluations. Spending money is not bad per se, it just has to be spent in the right place. We'll see! It's on Vinny now, and that's a good thing: he'll either sink or swim and that will be that.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=JWsleep;437559]Whatever the history, it does seem that we're taking a new approach this year, and that's something. As for the numbers, if you're making the most money as a franchise, you can play money ball. The fact is, it's not a bad model, given the number of teams who spend a lot that have won superbowls. I completely agree that the issue is much more on talent evaluation. I really do wonder where the blame for Arch and Lloyd lies. My guess is it's GW and Gibbs, respectively, and not Vinny. Could be wrong there, but with AA, it certainly seems like a reasonable hypothesis.

Dead cap results when you make bad talent evaluations. Spending money is not bad per se, it just has to be spent in the right place. We'll see! It's on Vinny now, and that's a good thing: he'll either sink or swim and that will be that.[/quote]

I dont know, I have thought about the AA and BL situation for a while now and im just not sure I can believe that GW wanted to bring in AA to fit a system. BL on the other hand maybe, maybe Al thought about bringing him in for some reason. I just have a feeling that Archuletta was Vinny's deal, wanted a name, brought him in on a big... im sorry enormous contract. This mess has been cleaned up for the most part, we are still paying on it though either through money or draft picks and thats what hurts the most. I just hope Zorn has a good eye for talent, hes got plenty of picks this year to work with.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

I have a question for our resident capologists Schneed and Canuck ... sort of on this same topic. I have heard a lot of speculation amongst the media that the Union and ownership are so far apart right now that there will probably be at least one year, possibly 2010, that there will be no cap. If that is the case, could the 'skins hold off until then and then use the uncapped year to clear the dead weight off their books from all of these contracts and start over at zero?

If so how would that work?

(Mods feel free to move this question to the Salary Cap Central forum if it is more relevant there.)

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[QUOTE=Schneed10;437519]Which speaks to talent evaluation, but not to salary cap management. The problem has never been that we've been [U]constrained[/U] by the cap, preventing us from getting who we wanted. The problem has been that too many of the guys we got were failures.[/QUOTE]

[IMG]http://akumuraider.com/images/lloyd_ducks.gif[/IMG]
Speaks for itself.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

we waste money on bad players. we sign good players too, but the hit/miss percentage is way too high to get ahead with that much money involved... it's been brought up an awful lot, and it's still true, but you can't go back in time now to fix it.

hopefully everyone's learned that wasting money on guys like arch or lloyd is a Bad Idea (R). I mean, if you went to either of those players previous team's message boards, those fans said everything you needed to know. arch had one too many injuries and was shot as far as starting, and lloyd was a cancer and not nearly as good as advertised. the fans said that BEFORE they even landed in DC, go figure they know they're own players (meanwhile, bills fans praised fletcher, indy's GM talked up washington, jet's fans said moss was good when healthy and really fast, but had massive issues with hamstrings).

it's not rocket science, and hopefully the staff that's in place is the one that finally figures it out.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=freddyg12;437543]I agree fully. I get tired of the opinion that because we clear up cap space one season that means we're in good shap w/the cap. We almost got to see how bad things were in 06 when the cba was about to expire.

[B]Yes, we would've been in cap hell if a new deal was not struck[/B].

good points about the draft, about the same thing I was saying earlier, we burned draft picks in trades & that really hurt over time.[/quote]

True, but about 20 other teams would have been as well. So it would have been a league wide problem and not just ours.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=angryssg;439035]True, but about 20 other teams would have been as well. So it would have been a league wide problem and not just ours.[/quote]

Not sure there were 20 teams that would've been even nearly as affected as us. It's one thing for 20 teams to have to cut a few players they don't want to, but the situation in 06 for us was much more dire than that.

But let's suppose you're right & we say that 20 teams are in some form of "cap hell," that leaves 12 teams who are presumably the top third in cap management (at that time). There are 12 teams in the playoffs every year as well.

So to me that says the Skins (again at the time in 06 when the old cba was ending) are one of the worst if not worst in cap management among 20 or so teams that are bad at it.

Re: WP: The Numbers Don't Lie (How Snyder Has Handled the Cap)
 

[quote=freddyg12;439036]Not sure there were 20 teams that would've been even nearly as affected as us. It's one thing for 20 teams to have to cut a few players they don't want to, but the situation in 06 for us was much more dire than that.

But let's suppose you're right & we say that 20 teams are in some form of "cap hell," that leaves 12 teams who are presumably the top third in cap management (at that time). There are 12 teams in the playoffs every year as well.

So to me that says the Skins (again at the time in 06 when the old cba was ending) are one of the worst if not worst in cap management among 20 or so teams that are bad at it.[/quote]

But it would have only lasted that season (2006) and 2007 would have been an uncapped year without the CBA. So it really wasn't ever that bad.

Edit. I guess what I am trying to say is that Snyder and his braintrust had this all figured out and the team was never going to suffer or be in CAP Hell with long term consequences. He knew that 1 of 2 things was possible. Either the old CBA would expire putting us in cap hell for one season prior to an uncaped season, or the CBA would be renewed with a cap increase included. Either way Danny was in a win win situation.

The consequences of that 1 year of cap hell would not have been that detrimental.