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GTripp0012 04-21-2008 05:35 PM

Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[URL="http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/2008/04/the_numbers_dont_lie_version_2.html"]The Numbers Don't Lie, Version 2.0: Don't Believe The Hype - Redskins Insider[/URL][INDENT][I]"Sure, they didn't spend anything on outside players - it was a poor market and they had very limited cap space - but let's not pretend things have truly changed. Guess which NFL team is currently second in the league in signing bonuses money paid in 2008, according to NFL Management Council numbers (which I obtain through league sources)?
Yep, you got it:


1 - Oakland Raiders - $53.8 million
2 - Snyder/Cerrato - $43.5 million (that doesn't even include another $5 million in option bonuses)"[/I]

[/INDENT]JLC is really on point in this article, even if the numbers are a hair off from what CC has here.

He's really pessimistic here though, and one of the thing he's ignoring is that to remain competitive, you have to draft the players [I]first[/I] and get rid of the bad contracts [I]second.

[/I]But the Redskins are really, really, really out on a thin limb on the Portis deal. By the book, it looks like they will get out unscathed, as long as Zorn doesn't run Portis into the ground. But a lot of things can happen between now and 2010. What if CP has a very injury prone year in 2008, and never really gets his feet under him again? Though that would be very unfortunate, it's a realistic fear that could seal Cerrato's fate, and it's probably a risk that could have been avoided.

I think the majority of Vinny's moves by date by and large have been intelligent, and JLC should probably give them more credit and stop trying to write off the current administration before they have a chance to do anything to right the ship. But it's a bit discomforting to be tied to a 26 year old RB for three years, especially with the turnover at the RB position.

SmootSmack 04-21-2008 05:49 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
JLC's relevance in the Redskins Locker Room is less and less now since certain people moved on this off-season. And it shows in the tone of his columns. In fact, I thought I had heard somewhere that the Post was looking to replace him as the Redskins Insider sometime in the coming months.

And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?

Slingin Sammy 33 04-21-2008 06:39 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=SmootSmack;441168]And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?[/quote]
He is undersized and has a tremendous amount of carries for a back his age. Plus he has had the shoulder.

I think we will need to see how Zorn uses him, in the WCO he shouldn't take the straight on pounding he did in Gibbs' offense. If that's the case barring something devastating he should be fine for 3yrs.

Dirtbag59 04-21-2008 06:52 PM

JLC: Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=SmootSmack;441168]JLC's relevance in the Redskins Locker Room is less and less now since [B]certain[/B] people moved on this off-season. And it shows in the tone of his columns. In fact, I thought I had heard somewhere that the Post was looking to replace him as the Redskins Insider sometime in the coming months.

[/quote]

*cough* Earnest Byner *cough*

But yeah, it's starting to get ridiculous over at RI. As I stated before the only reason I really go there anymore is because people post articles from Warpath Insiders as well as a few other sources I don't have access to.

In fact I just looked at his enteries from this time last year, and he wasn't nearly as negative as he has been this offseason, for me the change has been quite off putting and ironically has made me feel sorry for Snyder of all people.

I say it's best if Reid gets a chance to take over the Redskins and the Post makes JLC a beat writer for the Caps, because something big must have happened between JLC and the organization where his reporting is just extremly bias, which to me is bad both ways, but for a local paper it's a little better for a guy to be a bit of homer.

I really wish he took a similar stance to guy like Wilbon or Tony.

I also hate when people say shit like "it's a blog he can write whatever he wants." Maybe it started out as a blog, but it has since become a very popular desitnation for Redskin fans, and I doubt the Post would let JLC shut it down if he wanted to. In fact it's probably become a cash cow for the Post in terms of advertising. In other words JLC needs to be more professional.

But personally all these high and mighty articles are getting a little old. I kind of wish we would stop giving his articles new threads for the time being and just post them in already existing threads until the quality of his articles returns to a level close to where it was during the coaching search.

MTK 04-21-2008 07:59 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
What's wrong with being tied to Portis for 3 more years? At 29 he will likely be hitting the back end of his career and we can part with him then. I don't see what's so wrong with that. He's had one season out of 6 where he missed significant time and some people can't see to let that go. For some reason he's now fragile. I don't get it.

NYCskinfan82 04-21-2008 09:18 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
he is the best blocking & hitting back in the league period

Sheriff Gonna Getcha 04-21-2008 09:44 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
I'm sorry, but I've pretty much tuned JLC out altogether. I don't mind hard-hitting journalism and critical op-eds. Unfortunately, however, some people conflate whining with good analysis and objectivity. JLC is constantly taking Snyder and Gibbs to task for trivial issues and/or personality differences. I don't like reading articles that sound like they're written by: (1) Redskins Park employees; OR (2) disgruntled journalists with some sort of ax to grind.

EARTHQUAKE2689 04-21-2008 09:46 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=Mattyk72;441211]What's wrong with being tied to Portis for 3 more years? At 29 he will likely be hitting the back end of his career and we can part with him then. I don't see what's so wrong with that. He's had one season out of 6 where he missed significant time and some people can't see to let that go. For some reason he's now fragile. I don't get it.[/quote]


I dont understand it either but people just seem to think that he is fragile and withered away.

GTripp0012 04-21-2008 10:42 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=SmootSmack;441168]And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?[/quote]Speaking statistically, we all should be.

In the case of Portis, he's 26 going on 27, and he consistently does a good job protecting his legs. Both of those things are reasons that justify the financial implications of his new deal.

All Running Backs need to get pretty lucky to avoid injury every season. When they are in the lineup, a great running back can make a pretty big difference in terms of just how good an offense is. Portis is a runner who has had three [U]great[/U] seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2005.

I think he is primed for a big 2008 season. But what if he gets banged up? I mean, look what happened to Shaun Alexander after he got his new deal in 2006. Alexander was a better back than Portis in his prime, and now he's pretty much garbage at the age of 30.

The point is that Portis is a good bet to have a career year this season, but if he happens to get banged up, then Cerrato looks like an absolute fool for investing so much in him ahead of time.

SmootSmack 04-21-2008 10:46 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
But I thought you liked Rock? If I remember right, you don't like Betts right? Either way, I'm not too concerned about CP right now

GTripp0012 04-21-2008 10:50 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
Let me pose this question back to you all. If the Steelers had given Willie Parker an extension prior to this season with 20 million dollars guarenteed, what would we be saying about that deal right now, with the guy coming off a broken leg and a season in which Najeh Davenport was far more effective?

Portis is probably a better football player than Parker because he does all the little things very well, but their running production over their careers with their current teams are pretty similar. And at the end of the day, you are paying a RB to carry the ball, and getting blocking and receiving ability as a bonus.

GTripp0012 04-21-2008 10:53 PM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=SmootSmack;441270]But I thought you liked Rock? If I remember right, you don't like Betts right? Either way, I'm not too concerned about CP right now[/quote]I think Rock would be a good second option. I think Betts would be a good second option also, but Betts is on a deal that averages over 2 million a year, and Rock is playing for the league min.

The point wasn't that Portis shouldn't be starting, the point is that you want to have the contextual flexibility to go another direction if Portis loses effectiveness.

Is a running back supposed to lose effectiveness before age 29? No he's not, but he does play the most physically demanding position in sports, and he doesn't do a whole lot of good if he--for whatever reason--can't play.

FRPLG 04-22-2008 12:03 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
Geez we get it already JLC! Now get off your high horse.

I am consistently baffled by the inabilities of journalists to understand finances in this league. There are two ways to handle the cap. Ours requires cash on hand AND IS COMPLETELY SUSTAINABLE as long as that cash keeps flowing. Yes you pay bonuses and push cap money ahead. Yes it means you have to do this every year, But every year one or two big cap numbers wipe away and the cycle continues. Of course if older guys get hurt it causes cap problems. Guess what...it does for every team. It is a simple numbers game and if you compare our way to say... the Eagles, it would kill them because they don't have the cash to keep something like this up. They can't afford bonuses every year to push money away but we can and do. You'd think the fact that they have been doing this for almost a decade now would show some people that this cap management style does work. But I guess journalists also can't tell the difference between talent evaluation and cap management. They are different things. Not once has this team been worse off in the last decade because of the way we manage the cap. Not once.

SmootSmack 04-22-2008 12:10 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
I would venture to guess that JLC understands it (as do many other journalists) but he's choosing to present the information in a different light.

I think a lot of it is in fact personal, and a lot of it is pressure to churn out stories. But, as the Insider, he should be churning out stories like "Lawrence Jackson will be visiting Redskins coaches tomorrow. Sources tell me the Redskins are talking to the Falcons about a trade that would send their 1st and Antwan Randle El to Atlanta for multiple picks, one of which would be spent on Jackson" (I totally made that rumor up).

That's an "Insider"

GTripp0012 04-22-2008 12:12 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
But what if the money dries up?

I think the Skins are banking on the league being uncapped in the future. If 2009 is the final year the NFL ever has a salary cap on, we can push enough money into the future to where we are paying a ton of salary in 2010, and that'll be fine.

Because if that's not the plan, once the cap stops accelerating upward, we won't be able to hold our own roster. I mean, we already can't really add to the team through free agency (although if we want, we should have the cap room for a major move next season).

Actually, the end of the cap would be a wonderful, wonderful thing for the Redskins. Anthony Montgomery, Kedric Golston, Jason Campbell, Carlos Rogers, Reed Doughty, and Rocky McIntosh would all be unrestricted FAs in 2010 if the owners don't back out of the CBA, but if they do, all 6 of those guys would be restricted free agents, and effectively, Redskins through 2011.

Sheriff Gonna Getcha 04-22-2008 12:26 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
We'd certainly be in trouble if the cap stopped accelerating, but why would it do that? I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't think it's likely.

steveo395 04-22-2008 01:29 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=GTripp0012;441291]But what if the money dries up?

I think the Skins are banking on the league being uncapped in the future. If 2009 is the final year the NFL ever has a salary cap on, we can push enough money into the future to where we are paying a ton of salary in 2010, and that'll be fine.

Because if that's not the plan, once the cap stops accelerating upward, we won't be able to hold our own roster. I mean, we already can't really add to the team through free agency (although if we want, we should have the cap room for a major move next season).

Actually, the end of the cap would be a wonderful, wonderful thing for the Redskins. Anthony Montgomery, Kedric Golston, Jason Campbell, Carlos Rogers, Reed Doughty, and Rocky McIntosh would all be unrestricted FAs in 2010 if the owners don't back out of the CBA, but if they do, all 6 of those guys would be restricted free agents, and effectively, Redskins through 2011.[/quote]
as long as we don't sign or trade for any big name guys, then our cap will be fine. If our only major additions in the next couple of years are draft picks, and we start to get rid of the old veterans (like Daniels, Washington, Springs, and Griffin), we will have a lot more smaller contracts.

djnemo65 04-22-2008 02:43 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
Yeah, how is this entry not merely rehashing the same things we have heard from him and others for years? And how can one ignore that this year marks a major change in the Redskins' personnel acquisiton philosophy?

He's all over the place in this post and it's hard to determine what his argument even is. If his point is that we are giving older players more than they deserve, I mean, who cares? Is he Snyder's accountant? All that matters is that we are under the cap (which once again we well are, in spite of the doomsday scenarios spewed in the media) and that we are able to implement our personnel philosophy, which again we are.

What are these "tough decisions" we don't want to make. You mean cutting capable players so we can be 20 million under the cap like the Pats and the Eagles? Again, who cares. All that matters is that we are able to field the team we feel best gives us a chance to win a championship.

Our strategy in the past was to value experience over youth; the results were questionable at best, and now we are going in a different direction. If you want to criticize the Redskins past player management fine, but don't sit here and nitpick numbers and act like nothing has changed, because obviously things have...

hagams 04-22-2008 08:00 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
CP will be fine for a couple more years. I'm really thinking that the WCO is going to help him excel a little more than he has in recent years. I'm really hoping we can throw him the ball a couple more times. "If" his shoulder holds up, he should have a big season.

Beemnseven 04-22-2008 08:26 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
The history of the NFL is full of flash-in-the-pan running backs who look like dynamite for a season or two, then rapidly fade away. So far, Portis has lasted longer than that. To assume that he is immune to that scenario is shortsighted.

It wouldn't surprise me that if 2008 is less than spectacular, his time here will be shorter than expected.

Schneed10 04-22-2008 08:35 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=FRPLG;441289]Geez we get it already JLC! Now get off your high horse.

I am consistently baffled by the inabilities of journalists to understand finances in this league. There are two ways to handle the cap. Ours requires cash on hand AND IS COMPLETELY SUSTAINABLE as long as that cash keeps flowing. Yes you pay bonuses and push cap money ahead. Yes it means you have to do this every year, But every year one or two big cap numbers wipe away and the cycle continues. Of course if older guys get hurt it causes cap problems. Guess what...it does for every team. It is a simple numbers game and if you compare our way to say... the Eagles, it would kill them because they don't have the cash to keep something like this up. They can't afford bonuses every year to push money away but we can and do. You'd think the fact that they have been doing this for almost a decade now would show some people that this cap management style does work. But I guess journalists also can't tell the difference between talent evaluation and cap management. They are different things. Not once has this team been worse off in the last decade because of the way we manage the cap. Not once.[/quote]

Terrific post, I don't need to say much else. + rep points, FRPLG, if you care.

I will just address GTripp's "what if" about the possibility of money drying up for the Washington Redskins. Um, how would that EVER happen? 90,000+ seats, a very large TV market, a town that cares more about football than any other sport combined, corporate sponsorships, more luxury boxes than any other NFL stadium...

This franchise is a friggin cash cow. If you do a SWOT on it, you'd come up with tons of S and O, and virtually no W and T. The cash will not dry up, I can promise you that much.

As for JLC, he continues to link finances to talent evaluation. That's the flaw in his logic. Bottom line, we're a playoff team two of the last three seasons. We are returning starters at virtually every position. And we have 9 picks in the upcoming draft to help bridge the gap between the veteran present and the youthful future. The fate of the Redskins depends on our ability to pick good young players, evaluating their talent and deploying their skill sets effectively as they someday take over for our 30+ players. The cash and the cap space will always be there, it's all about finding the right guys, and money has little to do with it.

SC Skins Fan 04-22-2008 08:36 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=Beemnseven;441306]The history of the NFL is full of flash-in-the-pan running backs who look like dynamite for a season or two, then rapidly fade away. So far, Portis has lasted longer than that. To assume that he is immune to that scenario is shortsighted.

[B]It wouldn't surprise me that if 2008 is less than spectacular, his time here will be shorter than expected.[/B][/quote]

JLC's point is that by giving him big up front money and guaranteeing his salaries in 2008-2009, and a good portion in 2010, the scenario you suggest is not a possibility.

The point is not that Portis is a flash in the pan running back, but rather that running backs typically have short windows of effectiveness in the NFL. Portis has a lot of carries in his first five seasons, is not a particularly big back, and his game is extremely physical. I think he can do it for another three years, but probably won't go much after he turns 30 - but few backs do. I suspect also that is part of the reason why the FO felt comfortable guaranteeing salaries basically until Portis is 29-30. That is typically when elite running backs decline in effectiveness (typically dramatically, see Shaun Alexander - Tiki Barber is an exception, but had fewer carries early in his career).

FRPLG 04-22-2008 09:19 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[QUOTE=SC Skins Fan;441310]JLC's point is that by giving him big up front money and guaranteeing his salaries in 2008-2009, and a good portion in 2010, the scenario you suggest is not a possibility.

The point is not that Portis is a flash in the pan running back, but rather that running backs typically have short windows of effectiveness in the NFL. Portis has a lot of carries in his first five seasons, is not a particularly big back, and his game is extremely physical. I think he can do it for another three years, but probably won't go much after he turns 30 - but few backs do. I suspect also that is part of the reason why the FO felt comfortable guaranteeing salaries basically until Portis is 29-30. That is typically when elite running backs decline in effectiveness (typically dramatically, see Shaun Alexander - Tiki Barber is an exception, but had fewer carries early in his career).[/QUOTE]
You are correct about that being his point but I think some of us are saying that his point is just wrong. I think we'll all stipulate that RBs have a short shelf life and CP may indeed even be on the front part of the curve on that but from a financial standpoint that is basically irrelevant taken our current cap strategy.

Our strategy is the pay players MORE now but have them account less against the cap so that we pay them LESS in the future and have them count more against the cap. The only other strategy is basically the ooposite. You cannot mix the two nor can you compare them really. In the end if we pay CP less now and in the recent past during his most productive years and pay him in the future during his declining years we still paid him the same amount of cap space dollars over all. There is no way to get around that. One strategy doesn't create more cap dollars than another. They are financially equivalent. One strategy does though allow for more consistent flexibility because it relies on cash, something completely separate from the cap, to get players as needed. Are there years when there can be less flexibility? Absolutely but these years are planned. I wonder if it has even occured to JLC that what he suggests is an inability to sign free agents because of the cap is actually something planned because they didn't want to sign any free agents this year?

SouperMeister 04-22-2008 09:37 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=steveo395;441294]as long as we don't sign or trade for any big name guys, then our cap will be fine. If our only major additions in the next couple of years are draft picks, and we start to get rid of the old veterans (like Daniels, Washington, Springs, and Griffin), we will have a lot more smaller contracts.[/quote]I hope that greater emphasis is placed on the draft every year, providing a solid pool of very cheap talent if done well. I'm very excited with our prospects for this draft - I can't remember the last time that we held 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.

GTripp0012 04-22-2008 09:43 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=Schneed10;441308]Terrific post, I don't need to say much else. + rep points, FRPLG, if you care.

I will just address GTripp's "what if" about the possibility of money drying up for the Washington Redskins. Um, how would that EVER happen? 90,000+ seats, a very large TV market, a town that cares more about football than any other sport combined, corporate sponsorships, more luxury boxes than any other NFL stadium...

This franchise is a friggin cash cow. If you do a SWOT on it, you'd come up with tons of S and O, and virtually no W and T. The cash will not dry up, I can promise you that much.

As for JLC, he continues to link finances to talent evaluation. That's the flaw in his logic. Bottom line, we're a playoff team two of the last three seasons. We are returning starters at virtually every position. And we have 9 picks in the upcoming draft to help bridge the gap between the veteran present and the youthful future. The fate of the Redskins depends on our ability to pick good young players, evaluating their talent and deploying their skill sets effectively as they someday take over for our 30+ players. The cash and the cap space will always be there, it's all about finding the right guys, and money has little to do with it.[/quote]Well, I wasn't talking about the Redskins, I was talking more about the shared revenue of the entire league, and thusly the salary cap.

What if there isn't a season in 2011, or if the season is strike shortened? That will dry up the cash really fast, I mean, look at baseball. If they choose to keep the cap in football beyond 2010, the league wide profits will dry up at some point. If that's ten years later...then it doesn't really mean anything, as we will be out of the woods by then. But what if between 2009 and 2012, the cap doesn't go up because the league is not earning any more money than it did the prior season?

If the cap doesn't go up, we won't be able to prorate any signing bonuses to get under the cap. We would have to cut players based on contract structure, not merit, and depending on how bad it is, we might not even be able to sign top end amature talent.

I hope that football moves away from a salary cap structure, and more towards what baseball has now. People think that would create some league disparity...and it would to the extent that the Cowboys and Redskins would be around the playoffs every year...but not to the extent that the Yankees and Red Sox are. It certainly would be easier on small-market teams to retain homegrown talent throughout it's useful life, (then it is in baseball) and you would still have the franchise tag if necessary.

But in a non-capped NFL, the only Free Agents that would ever hit the market would be guys in their primes who could provide immediate help to the Cowboys or Redskins, but would begin their decline as soon as they were signed due to age. Derrick Dockery would still be a Skin if that were the case.

Anyway, I think the Redskins are predicting the NFL will head in that direction, because it would have been easy to get away from bad contracts this offseason, but instead, they've restructured and will try to compete again.

GTripp0012 04-22-2008 09:50 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=FRPLG;441313]You are correct about that being his point but I think some of us are saying that his point is just wrong. I think we'll all stipulate that RBs have a short shelf life and CP may indeed even be on the front part of the curve on that but from a financial standpoint that is basically irrelevant taken our current cap strategy.

Our strategy is the pay players MORE now but have them account less against the cap so that we pay them LESS in the future and have them count more against the cap. The only other strategy is basically the ooposite. You cannot mix the two nor can you compare them really. In the end if we pay CP less now and in the recent past during his most productive years and pay him in the future during his declining years we still paid him the same amount of cap space dollars over all. There is no way to get around that. One strategy doesn't create more cap dollars than another. They are financially equivalent. One strategy does though allow for more consistent flexibility because it relies on cash, something completely separate from the cap, to get players as needed. Are there years when there can be less flexibility? Absolutely but these years are planned. I wonder if it has even occured to JLC that what he suggests is an inability to sign free agents because of the cap is actually something planned because they didn't want to sign any free agents this year?[/quote]But it's not irrelevant because you still can't put that money somewhere else in the event that CP can't physically perform anymore. I mean, we won't have money to chase maybe more than one significant free agent next year, and we only will have that if we don't give a big deal this year.

In addition, if we renegotiate the CBA, we have to find cap room to sign Campbell, McIntosh, Montgomery, Doughty, Gholston, and Rogers. But if the CBA is backed out of and not renegotiated, all of those guys would remain under team control through 2010, though we will probably pay Campbell anyway to be the face of the franchise.

The point is this: if the NFL continues to have a salary cap, a deal like Portis' is pretty crippling if he can't make our rushing attack league average or better. If you are going to give that kind of money to a running back, Portis is a great guy to give it too, but that doesn't make it an intelligent business move.

Schneed10 04-22-2008 10:35 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
[quote=GTripp0012;441319]Well, I wasn't talking about the Redskins, I was talking more about the shared revenue of the entire league, and thusly the salary cap.

What if there isn't a season in 2011, or if the season is strike shortened? That will dry up the cash really fast, I mean, look at baseball. If they choose to keep the cap in football beyond 2010, the league wide profits will dry up at some point. If that's ten years later...then it doesn't really mean anything, as we will be out of the woods by then. But what if between 2009 and 2012, the cap doesn't go up because the league is not earning any more money than it did the prior season?

If the cap doesn't go up, we won't be able to prorate any signing bonuses to get under the cap. We would have to cut players based on contract structure, not merit, and depending on how bad it is, we might not even be able to sign top end amature talent.

I hope that football moves away from a salary cap structure, and more towards what baseball has now. People think that would create some league disparity...and it would to the extent that the Cowboys and Redskins would be around the playoffs every year...but not to the extent that the Yankees and Red Sox are. It certainly would be easier on small-market teams to retain homegrown talent throughout it's useful life, (then it is in baseball) and you would still have the franchise tag if necessary.

But in a non-capped NFL, the only Free Agents that would ever hit the market would be guys in their primes who could provide immediate help to the Cowboys or Redskins, but would begin their decline as soon as they were signed due to age. Derrick Dockery would still be a Skin if that were the case.

Anyway, I think the Redskins are predicting the NFL will head in that direction, because it would have been easy to get away from bad contracts this offseason, but instead, they've restructured and will try to compete again.[/quote]

A couple things:

A strike in 2011 would certainly cause problems for the Redskins cap situation, which certainly played a part in their decision not to pursue free agents this offseason.

But as for cash drying up in the NFL as a result of a strike, or any other reason for that matter, I think you're off base there. Baseball suffered financially from the '93 strike, but baseball does not have the same intense fan following that the NFL does. The appetite for NFL games is strong enough in most markets to support consistent increases in ticket prices and advertising rates. I know I for one would still pay DirecTV $500 to get access to all of the Skins games on TV each year. Please don't tell them I said that, because I much prefer $200. Major League Baseball's stadium venues aren't selling at max capacity like the NFL is. There is excess demand for the NFL's product, the same can't be said for baseball.

From a selfish standpoint, I wouldn't mind a shift to baseball's financial structure as it would mark the return of the annual dominance of the NFC East and our rivalries would no doubt heat up even further. But for league-wide revenues, it's a terrible idea. Fan interest will only decline within small markets, as fans begin to perceive that winning a championship is an impossibility.

GTripp0012 04-22-2008 10:42 AM

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 
I do think some fans will do that, but I'm not advocating the elimination of all revenue sharing.

Baseball is actually doing so well right now that all their franchises are making money. Six years ago, the Kansas City Royals had a payroll of 24 million dollars. This year, they are on the hook for 76 million in salary.

90% of football franchises are profitable, but the Bills, Jags, and Bengals are not making money. Five years ago, they were. To me, this signals that the end of the era of prosperity in the NFL is around the corner. Either way, it's going to hit the small market franchises well before it hits the large market ones, and either way, I think it will affect a decision to move away from a salary cap, and more importantly, a salary floor for the small market teams.

NFL teams can still be competitive on a 50 million dollar payroll, whereas baseball teams can not, save the A's of the early decade.


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