jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

dboyz got me thinking I should post my picks weekly in hopes that I could earn some fellow skins fans some money. Thus far on the season I am 8-2. (went 3-2 week 1, and 5-0 last week, for an earnings of $250 thus far at $50 a game) I only pick 5 games every week, no more, no less.
ps- I only bet the spread, never the over / under, and I ALWAYS stay away from the Skins cause heart will never win you money!

Here are my picks, hope they help.

[b]1- Oakland +9.5.[/b] I am not on the Buffalo bandwagon. I know they are "good", but they are not 9.5 points good. Oakland is young and will make this game close.

[b]2- Miami +12.5[/b] The patriots will win this game, but the Fins have almost always played the pats close with the exception of last year when the pats beat the piss out of everyone. In 06, 05 and 04, the dolphins split the series with the pats...worst loss was only 14 points. The way the pats are playing, I just don't think 12.5 is enough the take the pats.

[b]3- Carolina +3[/b] Gus Frerotte is taking over for Jackson, but I don't think that's enough to get that offense off the ground...also Adrian Peterson has a hurting hammy. On the other side, Carolina has Steve Smith back this week, and they seem to be doing all things right to win. I'll take carolina straight up, but if the bookies want to give me 3, I'll gladly take it!

[b]4- Tennessee -4.5[/b] Houston is still rusty from the preseason, and has a revolving door at RB and soon to be QB. The extra week off due to the hurricane will hurt houston, not help. Meanwhile, the Titans look like a much better team with Collins at the helm. I see at least a 7 point win for Tennessee.

[b]5- Indianapolis -4.5[/b] You can only keep a great team down so long. Indy is a great team, with a potent offense that has yet to take flight. I am not saying they are going to put up 45 points this week, but they will win by a td. It seemed that at the end of the game last week, they shook off the funk they were in to pull out the win. Jacksonville is hurting waaay too much with the loss of their two starting guards, and Garrard lost what made him great last year.

I'll try to keep up with this every week. Hope my picks help. Feel free to disagree.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;478558]dboyz got me thinking I should post my picks weekly in hopes that I could earn some fellow skins fans some money. Thus far on the season I am 8-2. (went 3-2 week 1, and 5-0 last week, for an earnings of $250 thus far at $50 a game) I only pick 5 games every week, no more, no less.
ps- I only bet the spread, never the over / under, and I ALWAYS stay away from the Skins cause heart will never win you money!

Here are my picks, hope they help.

[B]1- Oakland +9.5.[/B] I am not on the Buffalo bandwagon. I know they are "good", but they are not 9.5 points good. Oakland is young and will make this game close.

[B]2- Miami +12.5[/B] The patriots will win this game, but the Fins have almost always played the pats close with the exception of last year when the pats beat the piss out of everyone. In 06, 05 and 04, the dolphins split the series with the pats...worst loss was only 14 points. The way the pats are playing, I just don't think 12.5 is enough the take the pats.

[B]3- Carolina +3[/B] Gus Frerotte is taking over for Jackson, but I don't think that's enough to get that offense off the ground...also Adrian Peterson has a hurting hammy. On the other side, Carolina has Steve Smith back this week, and they seem to be doing all things right to win. I'll take carolina straight up, but if the bookies want to give me 3, I'll gladly take it!

[B]4- Tennessee -4.5[/B] Houston is still rusty from the preseason, and has a revolving door at RB and soon to be QB. The extra week off due to the hurricane will hurt houston, not help. Meanwhile, the Titans look like a much better team with Collins at the helm. I see at least a 7 point win for Tennessee.

[B]5- Indianapolis -4.5[/B] You can only keep a great team down so long. Indy is a great team, with a potent offense that has yet to take flight. I am not saying they are going to put up 45 points this week, but they will win by a td. It seemed that at the end of the game last week, they shook off the funk they were in to pull out the win. Jacksonville is hurting waaay too much with the loss of their two starting guards, and Garrard lost what made him great last year.

I'll try to keep up with this every week. Hope my picks help. Feel free to disagree.[/quote]

I love Tenn. I'm loading up on this one.

Indy has it's own injury issues but I sort of leaning with them too. They get back Saturday and Clark.

Car. has been barely getting by. I would not bet on them to save my life.

Oak has to travel cross country and that always a tough thing to do. Especially with a young Qb with no offense to speak of and a coach that's about to get fired. I'm going to lay the 9. Buff is for real. Solid o-line, good running game and they have a nice defense. Plus Buff is a tough place to play.

I know 12.5 is a lot w/ out Brady but no way do I have to balls to take Miami.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;478558]dboyz got me thinking I should post my picks weekly in hopes that I could earn some fellow skins fans some money. Thus far on the season I am 8-2. (went 3-2 week 1, and 5-0 last week, for an earnings of $250 thus far at $50 a game) I only pick 5 games every week, no more, no less.
ps- I only bet the spread, never the over / under, and I ALWAYS stay away from the Skins cause heart will never win you money!

Here are my picks, hope they help.

[B]1- Oakland +9.5.[/B] I am not on the Buffalo bandwagon. I know they are "good", but they are not 9.5 points good. Oakland is young and will make this game close.

[B]2- Miami +12.5[/B] The patriots will win this game, but the Fins have almost always played the pats close with the exception of last year when the pats beat the piss out of everyone. In 06, 05 and 04, the dolphins split the series with the pats...worst loss was only 14 points. The way the pats are playing, I just don't think 12.5 is enough the take the pats.

[B]3- Carolina +3[/B] Gus Frerotte is taking over for Jackson, but I don't think that's enough to get that offense off the ground...also Adrian Peterson has a hurting hammy. On the other side, Carolina has Steve Smith back this week, and they seem to be doing all things right to win. I'll take carolina straight up, but if the bookies want to give me 3, I'll gladly take it!

[B]4- Tennessee -4.5[/B] Houston is still rusty from the preseason, and has a revolving door at RB and soon to be QB. The extra week off due to the hurricane will hurt houston, not help. Meanwhile, the Titans look like a much better team with Collins at the helm. I see at least a 7 point win for Tennessee.

[B]5- Indianapolis -4.5[/B] You can only keep a great team down so long. Indy is a great team, with a potent offense that has yet to take flight. I am not saying they are going to put up 45 points this week, but they will win by a td. It seemed that at the end of the game last week, they shook off the funk they were in to pull out the win. Jacksonville is hurting waaay too much with the loss of their two starting guards, and Garrard lost what made him great last year.

I'll try to keep up with this every week. Hope my picks help. Feel free to disagree.[/quote]

I agree with all of your picks except Oakland. Sure they looked good against the worst team in the AFC (KC) last week, but what made them look good? Rushing. McFadden hasn't practiced all week with a toe injury and Fargas' groin is gonna keep him out for a while. Not to mention Buffalo is good against the run and is playing at home. Buffalo's offense has looked good running and passing so far against two teams that were in the playoffs last year. Oakland will be lucky to score 10 points in this game, and I think for fantasy purposes the Bills defense is the start of the week.

On a side note I agree that Indy will cover the spread, but I don't agree with what you're getting at in regard to David Garrard. Yeah, he has lost what made him great last year- a healthy offensive line that created a monster running game, in turn opening up the pass. I don't think his skills fell off the map in an 8 or 9 month span.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

I love the carolina pick. (already put 100 on it). Hate the Indy pick, I think Jax is due and Indy is on the outs. P.S. da Skins bet is going to pay. There's my two cents, do what you want with it. Good luck!

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[U]Week 3 Picks[/U]

[U]jsarno vs The Don (DBOYZ)[/U]
Oakland...........Buffalo
Miami..............Miami
Carolina...........Carolina
Tennessee.......Tennessee
Indianapolis......Jacksonville


Let's see how we do tomorrow hahah I'm just having fun with it




Jsarno

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;478593][U]Week 3 Picks[/U]

[U]jsarno vs The Don (DBOYZ)[/U]
Oakland...........Buffalo
Miami..............Miami
Carolina...........Carolina
Tennessee.......Tennessee
Indianapolis......Jacksonville


Let's see how we do tomorrow hahah I'm just having fun with it




Jsarno[/quote]


Sounds good to me. I like fun rivalries! ;)

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

fucking buffalo

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=WaldSkins;478843]fucking buffalo[/quote]

No kidding. Boy was I wrong there.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=GMScud;479041]No kidding. Boy was I wrong there.[/quote]

at this point, I am right about everything except Minnesota...but if Carolina scores, I won't be.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;479114]at this point, I am right about everything except Minnesota...but if Carolina scores, I won't be.[/quote]

I actually didn't get my bet in on time so I've got nothing going for the 1 o'clock games.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

Looks like you're going to make some money on that Mia-Pats game.

Never would've thought the Fins would spank the Pats like that.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

I won the Oakland game +50
I won the Miami game +50
I won the Tennessee game +50
I lost the Carolina game -50

Up $100 going into the Indy game...at worst, I won $50 at this point.

(This puts me at 11-3 so far on the season)

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=GMScud;479119]I actually didn't get my bet in on time so I've got nothing going for the 1 o'clock games.[/quote]

what do you have for hte 2nd round of games?

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;478593][U]Week 3 Picks[/U]

[U]jsarno vs The Don (DBOYZ)[/U]
Oakland...........Buffalo
Miami..............Miami
Carolina...........Carolina
Tennessee.......Tennessee
Indianapolis......Jacksonville


Let's see how we do tomorrow hahah I'm just having fun with it




Jsarno[/quote]

So far, I'm up by one over you with the Indy game being the difference left.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

jsarno great picks, please continue to do this each week if you have time. If you picked a particular day to put out your picks, so everyone would know to look then, that would be awesome.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=dan_snyder69;479255]jsarno great picks, please continue to do this each week if you have time. If you picked a particular day to put out your picks, so everyone would know to look then, that would be awesome.[/quote]

I'll do that, and I'll try to get my picks posted on here by friday each week. I don't get my sheet til friday, so that's the earliest I can get them here.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

yeah it all comes down to the Indi game..... you only bet straight up? I put 3 team per ticket that pays 6-1 right now I'm even I place 140 bucks today on various tickets and already won 1 Miami-Atlanta-Tennessee got me 118 plus my 20 bucks, I still have 5 tickets playing in the late games so anything else I make it's winnings.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;479302]yeah it all comes down to the Indi game..... you only bet straight up? I put 3 team per ticket that pays 6-1 right now I'm even I place 140 bucks today on various tickets and already won 1 Miami-Atlanta-Tennessee got me 118 plus my 20 bucks, I still have 5 tickets playing in the late games so anything else I make it's winnings.[/quote]

Yeah, I've been doing it like this for years. Every year I win $200-$1000 by season's end. We always take a cruise in February (ish) so we use that money on the cruise. I don't tough it at all over the season, just collect, or pay out if I have a back week. It works for me.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

Ok Jsarno it was a tie 3-2 each let's see how we do next week, just 1 thing your lines are not right Tennessee was -5 today he was -5.5 Indianapolis was -5.5 today -6 just check them out because it makes a difference.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;479424]Ok Jsarno it was a tie 3-2 each let's see how we do next week, just 1 thing your lines are not right Tennessee was -5 today he was -5.5 Indianapolis was -5.5 today -6 just check them out because it makes a difference.[/quote]

My lines are locked on friday, and that's what I bet on. He hands me a sheet on friday, and they are what they are. They get their lines from vegas on that day.
How are you doing yours?

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

Stinkin Indy...they are not the team I thought they were.

Oh well...didn't have the week I thought I would, but I'll take my $50 and run.

week 1- 3-2, $50
week 2- 5-0, $250
week 3- 3-2, $50

Total, 11-4, $350.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=WaldSkins;478843]fucking buffalo[/quote]

And they play STL next week probably will start the season 4-0

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

Im just mad they didnt cover

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;479432]Stinkin Indy...they are not the team I thought they were.

Oh well...didn't have the week I thought I would, but I'll take my $50 and run.

week 1- 3-2, $50
week 2- 5-0, $250
week 3- 3-2, $50

Total, 11-4, $350.[/quote]

Dboiz totals

week 1 $138
week 2 $275
week 3 $313

total =$726

Winning tickets of this week
ticket 1 Miami-Atlanta-Tennessee
ticket 2 Philly-Jacksonville-Tennessee

The big Difference jsarno is that you risk $250 bucks every week with the best scenario you win $250 bucks

In my case I risk $130 bucks each week for the chance to win $780 your risk more money and win less

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;479431]My lines are locked on friday, and that's what I bet on. He hands me a sheet on friday, and they are what they are. They get their lines from vegas on that day.
How are you doing yours?[/quote]

To do the predictions I take the official Openning lines from vegas because they move so much after

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=WaldSkins;479491]Im just mad they didnt cover[/quote]


believe me you and me both man buffalo cost me around $150

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;479751]believe me you and me both man buffalo cost me around $150[/quote]

same here

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

NFL Lines For Week 4 - NFL Football Line Week Four
NFL Line 9/28 - 9/29, 2008
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
9/28 1:00 ET Denver -9 At Kansas City 45.5
9/28 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -3.5 Cleveland 44.5
9/28 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -7.5 Houston 41.5
9/28 1:00 ET At NY Jets -3 Arizona Off
9/28 1:00 ET At New Orleans -6 San Francisco 48.5
9/28 1:00 ET At Carolina -7 Atlanta 39
9/28 1:00 ET At Tennessee -3 Minnesota 36
9/28 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1.5 Green Bay 43
9/28 4:05 ET Buffalo -8 At St. Louis 42
9/28 4:05 ET San Diego -7 At Oakland Off
9/28 4:15 ET At Dallas -11.5 Washington 46
9/28 8:15 ET Philadelphia -3 At Chicago Off

Monday Night Football Line
9/29 8:35 ET At Pittsburgh -7.5 Baltimore Off
Bye Weeks: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, Seattle

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;479745]Dboiz totals

week 1 $138
week 2 $275
week 3 $313

total =$726

Winning tickets of this week
ticket 1 Miami-Atlanta-Tennessee
ticket 2 Philly-Jacksonville-Tennessee

The big Difference jsarno is that you risk $250 bucks every week with the best scenario you win $250 bucks

In my case I risk $130 bucks each week for the chance to win $780 your risk more money and win less[/quote]

It seems that your way is more risky. You need to go 3-0 on the tickets you play. The key is to obviously play more tickets. So how many tickets are you playing and at how much per ticket?

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=jsarno;479896]It seems that your way is more risky. You need to go 3-0 on the tickets you play. The key is to obviously play more tickets. So how many tickets are you playing and at how much per ticket?[/quote]

no it isn't yours it's more risky yeah you go head 3 head but you risk $250 each week and you have to get 3 out of your 5 picks right to make $50 bucks even if you get 2 right you lost 50 bucks.

in my case I play around 5 - 7 tickets from 20- 30 bucks depending on how much confidence I have in the ticket but with 1 ticket I get my money back yes is harder to get 3 teams right in 1 ticket but I get 7 chances to do it with different combos usually I get between 1-2 tickets right at least sometimes I get a lot more and I risk half what you risk each week and can make easily more money than you because for you to make money you have to get all 5 right and still you only make 250 I make that with 2 tickets.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

[quote=D'BOYZ;480305]no it isn't yours it's more risky yeah you go head 3 head but you risk $250 each week and you have to get 3 out of your 5 picks right to make $50 bucks even if you get 2 right you lost 50 bucks.

in my case I play around 5 - 7 tickets from 20- 30 bucks depending on how much confidence I have in the ticket but with 1 ticket I get my money back yes is harder to get 3 teams right in 1 ticket but I get 7 chances to do it with different combos usually I get between 1-2 tickets right at least sometimes I get a lot more and I risk half what you risk each week and can make easily more money than you because for you to make money you have to get all 5 right and still you only make 250 I make that with 2 tickets.[/quote]

This is the way i do it to but i bet more per ticket and only bet like 4 tickets a week. The heads up thing i would say is more risky.

On a more important note: with the Redskins spread at -11.5 for Dallas who you betting?

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

right now I don't know common knowledge would say pick the redskins they almost always play close and put up a fight... but if you take they held the packers to 9 points ( the last 7 were garbage points)it's a tough call I think I will lead on taking the redskins this week but it's to early.

Re: jsarno's top 5 picks week 3.
 

I was just joking, im not even gonna touch this game. I never bet on the redskins.