Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Not looking good for Johnny

[url=http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiLSpkIoVEXCAKmafB3VTwWEFqJwD93QB5380]The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.[/url]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

This election was over the moment Obama beat Hillary Clinton but you never know though. At this point the only hope left for the old man is the Bradley Effect.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

wow, awfully quiet in this thread. I thought the righties would have put some spin on this somehow by now.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Interesting....this maybe the final nail in the coffin for the Republicans

[url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/colin-powell-is-ready-to_b_134777.html]Lawrence O'Donnell: Colin Powell Is Ready To Endorse[/url]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Well polls have been wrong allot. While I do think McCain has an up hill battle has Obama done enough to get people out to the polls? Are they counting on the young vote which was suppose to be so big last election but they never showed up? I do know this if McCain wins all we are going to hear is voter fraud for months. If Obama wins we will hear very little to nothing about voter fraud. Either way my life will go on and I will do as I have done everyday. While I perfer one party over the other there is nothing I can do to change the out come so why worry. Well I will worry that Obama will change after he getts in office and raise my taxes even though I'm under the threash hold he set.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

ah there's the spin, I was worried there for a bit

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;490166]ah there's the spin, I was worried there for a bit[/quote]
What did I spin in my comments. So polls are allways right? Did I not say McCain has an uphill battle. Thsoe questions about Obama and people getting out to vote will be questions that you will hear all day on election day. So that my friend is "The No Spin Zone".

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Times are tough when a Buckley endorses Obama.

[yt]_JwInpFavxo[/yt]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Isn't George Will also backing Obama?

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;490203]Isn't George Will also backing Obama?[/quote]
Thats not William Buckley its his son.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Sheriff Gonna Getcha;490203]Isn't George Will also backing Obama?[/quote]

Not exactly but he said the [URL="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/09/23/ST2008092301500.html"]following[/URL]:

[quote]Conservatives who insist that electing McCain is crucial usually start, and increasingly end, by saying he would make excellent judicial selections. But the more one sees of his impulsive, intensely personal reactions to people and events, the less confidence one has that he would select judges by calm reflection and clear principles, having neither patience nor aptitude for either.

It is arguable that, because of his inexperience, Obama is not ready for the presidency. It is arguable that McCain, because of his boiling moralism and bottomless reservoir of certitudes, is not suited to the presidency. Unreadiness can be corrected, although perhaps at great cost, by experience. Can a dismaying temperament be fixed?[/quote]and [URL="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/382389_will09.html"]this[/URL]:

[quote]Time was, the Baltimore Orioles manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is [I]this it[/I]?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.

In the closing days of his 10-year quest for the presidency, McCain finds it galling that Barack Obama is winning the first serious campaign he has ever run against a Republican. Before Tuesday night's uneventful event, gall was fueling what might be the McCain-Palin campaign's closing argument. It is less that Obama has bad ideas than that Obama is a bad person.

This, McCain and his female Sancho Panza say, is demonstrated by bad associations Obama had in Chicago, such as with William Ayers, the unrepentant terrorist. But the McCain-Palin charges have come just as the Obama campaign is benefiting from a mass mailing it is not paying for. Many millions of American households are gingerly opening envelopes containing reports of the third-quarter losses in their 401(k) and other retirement accounts -- telling each household its portion of the nearly $2 trillion that Americans' accounts have recently shed. In this context, the McCain-Palin campaign's attempt to get Americans to focus on Obama's Chicago associations seem surreal -- or, as a British politician once said about criticism he was receiving, "like being savaged by a dead sheep."
[/quote]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Looks like Palin and the negative attacks on Obama have seriously backfired for McCain, especially among indepedents:

[url=http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5idaRC3Xw5hh-JV-hYLhW132zQXKQ]The Canadian Press: Not just economy: Palin, negative attacks on Obama decimating McCain[/url]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=firstdown;490195]What did I spin in my comments. So polls are allways right? Did I not say McCain has an uphill battle. Thsoe questions about Obama and people getting out to vote will be questions that you will hear all day on election day. So that my friend is "The No Spin Zone".[/quote]

No, the polls aren't [I]always[/I] right, but more often than not they are a strong indicator of what's to come. Barring a miracle McCain is done.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;489734]Not looking good for Johnny

[URL="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiLSpkIoVEXCAKmafB3VTwWEFqJwD93QB5380"]The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.[/URL][/quote]

Hmmmmmm...John Kerry was leading, even on exit polls. Gore was leading. I even remember Walter Mondale leading within a month of the election in 1984 and losing 49 of the 50 states. :D

Yep, polls are trustworthy. :D

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;490166]ah there's the spin, I was worried there for a bit[/quote]

Spins, facts, believe whatever you want.

Oversampling Democrats is the modus operandi for the media and pollsters. It has been well documented and people still fall for it every time. Some recent polls have been oversampled by as much as 20% in favor of Obama and he's still only ahead by about 5% in most polls.

I believe THAT should be making Obama nervous. He needs a bigger lead if he wants to feel comfortable with the polls. Not leading by at least 10% with the polls being weighted in his favor spells trouble for him on November 4.

One of the main reasons for the state of shock and the backlash of many Democrats after the past two elections was because they believed their own polls.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;490334]Looks like Palin and the negative attacks on Obama have seriously backfired for McCain, especially among indepedents:

[URL="http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5idaRC3Xw5hh-JV-hYLhW132zQXKQ"]The Canadian Press: Not just economy: Palin, negative attacks on Obama decimating McCain[/URL][/quote]

AH yes, the always relevant FOREIGN media sources. :rofl:

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Buster;490524]AH yes, the always relevant FOREIGN media sources. :rofl:[/quote]

[URL="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411284505038359.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"]Ready, Aim, Backfire: Nasty Political Ads Fall Flat - WSJ.com[/URL]

[quote]
Independent studies say a higher proportion of Sen. McCain's ads are negative than Sen. Obama's. And with voters largely blaming Republicans for the economy, polls suggest that Sen. McCain is paying the price for the increasingly negative tone of the campaign. In the past, voters usually divided the blame for negative advertising between both candidates, says Dr. West. Among recent elections, "there's none that come close" to today's one-sided leveling of blame, he adds.
[/quote]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Obama sort of needs to win for the sake of his party. If the Democratic party can't win this year when can they win?

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

This is interesting

Obama was wrong to state that "100 percent" of McCain TV ads have been negative. According to a survey by the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin, 73 percent of the ads McCain has aired since the start of the campaign have been negative while 61 percent of Obama's ads have been negative. According to a Nielsen survey, both candidates had roughly similar numbers of negative ads beteen June 3, when the primaries ended and September 7. During that period, the McCain campaign ran 76,192 negative ads against Obama while the Obama campaign ran 75,246 negative ads against McCain.

It's possible Obama was referring to recent ads aired by McCain. The Wisconsin Advertising project reported that "nearly 100 percent" of McCain ads between September 28-October 4 were negative.

[url=http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/10/final_presidential_debate.html]Final Presidential Debate Fact Check - Fact Checker[/url]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;490528][URL="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411284505038359.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"]Ready, Aim, Backfire: Nasty Political Ads Fall Flat - WSJ.com[/URL][/quote]
And I hear crickets LOL

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=Mattyk72;489734]Not looking good for Johnny

[URL="http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiLSpkIoVEXCAKmafB3VTwWEFqJwD93QB5380"]The Associated Press: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.[/URL][/quote]

No spin, and I do agree that Obama is heavily favored at this point based on the numbers.

But do those Quinnipac polls account for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader? And do they account for the age bias in likely voters? Because when they say "likely" voters, I'm not certain they're appropriately adjusting for the young voters who tend not to mobilize and the older voters who tend to show up in droves.

From what I know about stats, I'd agree that Obama is favored at this point, simply because sampling errors (as I discussed above) are not enough to make up for a 10 point deficit. But I also think it will be closer than these polls indicate.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=hooskins;490586]And I hear crickets LOL[/quote]

I've never heard a cricket laugh out loud. Cool...

Sorry I'm not online 24/7 like some of you to respond ASAP. :D



If you have not learned that polls are not trustworthy in the past few decades (especially the last 2 elections), you either haven't been paying much attention or just have your head in the sand and will believe only what makes you happy.

I'm not saying Obama can't win, but I do believe it is a lot closer than most polls indicate (if you examine the internals of the polls) and could go either way.

Also, a LOT can happen in 2 weeks to have a dramatic impact on the outcome, especially economically or even from a terrorist-related action performed solely to sway the election. Osama bin Laden TRIED this last time with a video pretty much endorsing John Kerry 4 days before the election. A video from a terrorist won't do much, but actions could.

[URL="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4222647.stm"]BBC NEWS | Americas | Kerry blames defeat on Bin Laden[/URL]

John Kerry blamed his loss on OBL, but he would've lost anyways due to his own incompetent campaigning.
[IMG]http://passtheammo.com/wp-content/uploads/john-kerry-hunting-gay.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]http://enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0803/081803kerryjohncheesesteak.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]http://www.audienceoftwo.com/pics/upload/kerry_drop_football.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]http://www.papillonsartpalace.com/JOHN_KERRY_LEAPS_BEFORE_THROWING_FOOTBALL.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry7.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry4.jpg[/IMG]
[IMG]http://www.resnet.wm.edu/%7Ebmjord/pictures/Kerry9.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/6210135_9CFqm-M-1.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5924271_5SxjY-M.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[IMG]http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5924268_emtRv-M.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/5927521_iGfhq-M.jpg[/IMG]

[IMG]http://baileyfamily.smugmug.com/photos/6210135_9CFqm-M-1.jpg[/IMG]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

The Kerry football pics are an all-time classic, I crack up everytime I see them.

This is a pretty cool site that compiles all the polls and gives you an average:

[url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/]RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages[/url]

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

Here's an even more interesting poll site: [url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/url]

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.

Re: Poll: Obama leads in Mich., Wis., Minn., Colo.
 

[quote=JWsleep;490976]Here's an even more interesting poll site: [URL="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/"]FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right[/URL]

The guy made his name by developing baseball statistics. He's an Obama supporter, but it's a very interesting site. He does not simply aggregate the polls like realclear, but provides lots of other additional measures. Check it out.[/quote]

good stuff, thanks