Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

I've been thinking about this since the draft. Vinny has said since the 08 draft that they pick the "best player available" on their board. However, the last two drafts show a pattern that Zorn alluded to when he said 'we picked offense last year & defense this year.'

Taken further, it appears that specific positions have been targeted in each year, in 08 it was 2 wr's & a TE. In 09, 3 LBs. The theory that a couple of these picks were "reaches" (Kelly,Glenn) reinforces the idea that the team had identified positions, i.e. needs. I think Vinny has a long-range plan that addresses need each year & they pick BPA to a degree based on that need.

While we've discussed draft strategy to the nth degree, I couldn't find a thread that posed this question: Do the Skins draft BPA or has Vinny created a long-term plan that targets different positions each year?

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

It's both BPA and need.

You can't have a plan set in stone. Each year is different and each draft class determines the plan of action you can take. Many teams focus on BPA but you also have to consider need as well.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

I don't think that you can limit it to "Vinny's" strategy. I think Snyder has just as much input if not more. Or maybe it is something like this, "Hey Vinny. I plan on shipping out this year's first, next year's first, Campbell and we are going to switch a 3rd for a 5th for a headcase QB who throws for a lot of yards behind a better o-line. You will still be able to find a pass rusher, linebacker, corner depth and a starting right tackle, right?<uncomfortable two second silence> Good. Talk to you later".

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Pocket$ $traight;555626]I don't think that you can limit it to "Vinny's" strategy. I think Snyder has just as much input if not more. Or maybe it is something like this, "Hey Vinny. I plan on shipping out this year's first, next year's first, Campbell and we are going to switch a 3rd for a 5th for a headcase QB who throws for a lot of yards behind a better o-line. You will still be able to find a pass rusher, linebacker, corner depth and a starting right tackle, right?<uncomfortable two second silence> Good. Talk to you later".[/quote]

I love how you have to force a FO bash and not even address the question of the thread.


[quote=Mattyk72;555615]It's both BPA and need.

You can't have a plan set in stone. Each year is different and each draft class determines the plan of action you can take. Many teams focus on BPA but you also have to consider need as well.[/quote]

I think as much as you want to plan for the draft, you have to be ready for anything come draft day. For instance, it seems like the Redskins were willing to move up to pick up Orakpo, which personally I don't think it would have been such a good idea. However, I think the Raiders taking Heyward-Bey with their #7 pick, changed things around which led to Orakpo falling to us.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Ruhskins;555636]I love how you have to force a FO bash and not even address the question of the thread.




I think as much as you want to plan for the draft, you have to be ready for anything come draft day. For instance, it seems like the Redskins were willing to move up to pick up Orakpo, which personally I don't think it would have been such a good idea. However, I think the Raiders taking Heyward-Bey with their #7 pick, changed things around which led to Orakpo falling to us.[/quote]

Yeah you can't plan for how draft day will go. That's why mocks are pretty useless.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

I suspect that the first cut of the draft is Vinny trying to go for the glamour player or players that Dan Snyder wants in the early rounds. This year that player was Sanchez, so Vinny tried to trade up for him.

Failing that, Vinny goes for the best available players at positions of need in the first three rounds. You know, real football stuff. This year those players turned out to be Orakpo and Barnes.

After the third round, I think Vinny tries to build depth in areas of need. Since these picks will be players that the coaches will need to develop, I think that that Vinny puts extra emphasis on the Special Teams abilities of the players he picks in these rounds.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Ruhskins;555636]I love how you have to force a FO bash and not even address the question of the thread.[/quote]

Please try to post one message where you don't criticize or outright insult another poster. The superior tone of your posts has become annoying.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

BPA is a myth

teams pick based on needs...whether they need a player a lot or a little is irrelevant when a great player comes along...but there is still the need that could be addressed by picking that great player...thats why players like brady quinn and matt leinart and calvin johnson and aaron curry slip in the draft....because they may be the best player available....but teams dont go after players they dont need at all

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

God, all this Snyder bashing. Folks, we have no clue how much input Snyder has in the war room. I'm willing to bet that it isn't much. I feel like Snyder spends most of his days signing checks, then coming out to watch his favorite team. Even if Snyder is involved, especially in the 'first day picks' then he does a pretty damn good job. ST, Landry, Cooley (3rd was first day back then!), etc etc.

You have to make a smart plan. You won't see Indy sitting at the draft with an awesome QB available taking him. It's a mix of BPA and need. There are certain super-star players that you will almost always take, besides QB you typically want at least 2 very good players at every position. You need to weigh the players on your board with what you have on the team, making exceptions for exceptional players.

Canton. Calvin Johnson was picked 2nd overall.... Behind JaMarcus Russell.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Landry a BPA at the time? I mean, we could have used him but at the time I vaguely remember our needs being elsewhere. I tend to agree with those who say that BPA is a myth, however. If how the Raiders drafted is any indication, the Draft is so unpredictable and the only purpose for mocks is for TV ratings and website hits. As far as Danny and Vinny go, Skins fans should just be happy that we do not have a senile crazy owner who just wants to win before he croaks, or an oil tycoon who has an affinity for ex-cons.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

In a perfect situation the BPA fits one of your positions of need. If not, I think you would either trade down, if possible, or take the player if he's too good to pass up. It would depend on who you already have at the position. If for example the BPA at #13 this year would have been a TE, I think it would have been hard for us to take him considering our TE situation. Not only do we have a great starter, but we also have good depth. I think in the first 2-3 rounds of the draft you should try to address your needs as best you can. Whether by trading picks or whatever, as long as it's reasonable and you're not losing value. In the later rounds I think you should go strictly by who you think is the BPA and can make your team. I think Vinny did a very good job of this last year. We traded down and got positions of need and also picked up players in the later rounds who not only made our team, but in the case of Horton, actually started. Orakpo was one of those perfect situations where, BPA, was also a position of need. I agree that Vinny is taking players in the later rounds who can also help on ST's, therefore he is taking players who have the best chance of making the team.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=KI Skins Fan;555645]Please try to post one message where you don't criticize or outright insult another poster. The superior tone of your posts has become annoying.[/quote]

Water off my back. I was half-way joking but if he wants to go toe to toe. I am down.

As far as the thread, I think that best player available is always the first consideration. But unless you are at #1 you are always reacting on some level. This year worked out well. Pass rush was a definite need, Haynesworth can't do it alone, and Orakpo was somewhere near the top of our board. That is why it took 5 seconds to get our pick in.

Same with Barnes. You can't have too many corners (we just lost a very good one) and this guy flashed first day talent.

But let's say the 3 pick comes around and the best players on our board are corners and Ends. At some point you have to shift slightly and go after an LB.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Mattyk72;555615]It's both BPA and need.

You can't have a plan set in stone. Each year is different and each draft class determines the plan of action you can take. Many teams focus on BPA but you also have to consider need as well.[/quote]

Agreed. IMHO the wisest draft strategy involves a little of both BPA and DFN, depending on the state of both the team's roster and the big board at the time of the pick. That seems like the best way to generate the most mileage out of your picks.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

I say grab a kicker

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

I'd say you have to BPA within reason (as in the TE situation that 53fan brought up) for the first few rounds, but after that why not go after positions of need for depth. We all know how spotty scouting can be, especially in terms of late round picks, so it's very hard to determine who the BPA is when you get in to the later rounds of the draft.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;555664]I say grab a kicker[/quote]

I think two kickers were actually taken in the 5th round this year. LOL.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Ruhskins;555684]I think two kickers were actually taken in the 5th round this year. LOL.[/quote]Yeah, dallas took one even though they have a good one in Folk.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Mattyk72;555615]It's both BPA and need.

You can't have a plan set in stone. Each year is different and each draft class determines the plan of action you can take. Many teams focus on BPA but you also have to consider need as well.[/quote]

I tend to agree with this. Although we can site the 2008 draft as evidence that the FO went after "need" first. We can also look at the 2007 draft (Landry= BPA vs. Okoye=Need) or the fact that, by Vinny's own admission, that plan A was to draft J Mayo last year and plan B was to trade down versus taking DE's Calais Campbell or Phillip Merling who also filled need positions.

I have to say that I approve of alot of what the FO has been doing for the past 3 years.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Mattyk72;555615]It's both BPA and need.

You can't have a plan set in stone. Each year is different and each draft class determines the plan of action you can take. Many teams focus on BPA but you also have to consider need as well.[/quote]

Matty again is spot-on. The subject of this thread creates a false either/or.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=ArtMonkDrillz;555688]Yeah, dallas took one even though they have a good one in Folk.[/quote]

Well maybe they knew something about this....

[url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4147039]Dallas Cowboys kicker Nick Folk undergoes surgery to repair torn hip cartilage - ESPN[/url]

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=Lotus;555693]Matty again is spot-on. The subject of this thread creates a false either/or.[/quote]

For the record, I hate most either/or questions simply because there are usually more choices. Maybe based on the thread title you're right, but read my explanation of the thread - I think they have a plan, and from that plan they may choose BPA, e.g. best LBs available (09), best safeties available (08), best wr's available (08).

If anyone has created a "false either/or" it's Vinny, who has said publicly that they simply pick BPA. My point is that there seems too much of a pattern here w/regards to positions to say that it is as much BPA as Vinny publicly states.

Not a criticism of the approach, just an attempt to identify the FO plan.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

It pretty clear to me that in the higher rounds (1-2), we draft BPA period. While we are mindful of needs, we absoultely will not REACH more than a slot or two to take a player just because he fills a need. We may try to trade up or down to fill a need with a player "at the right slot," but if we were unable to do so, we would take the BPA that doesnt fit a need as opposed to "reaching" and taking a player 10 spots too early, just to fill a need. Consider two examples:

[B][U]Example 1: 2008 Draft.[/U][/B] Last year, whoever we had as the best available on our board when we when our 1st round pick came up, was probably someone that didnt fill a position of need. the Best available players that did fit needs were not worth taking at our natural position. So, we tried like hell to trade down - and we succeeded. Unfortunately (depending on your POV), according to vinny, after each spot we got after we traded down, another team selected the player we wanted right before us (probably , Merling, Laws, and Campbell). Thus, we ended up filling one need (WR Devin Thomas) and taking two players we really didnt need at that point (Fred Davis and Malcom Kelly) because they were far and away the best players on our board.

[B][U]Example 2: 2009 Draft.[/U][/B] This year, it was our goal to take the BPA and fill a (perceived) need - QB - and to do this, we tried like hell to trade up but it just didnt work out. At that point, we moved to plan B - fill a need with one of the top 5 players on our board - and to do this, we also tried to trade up. Fortunately, Orakpo fell to us. If he hadnt, we would have tried to trade down. If we were unsuccessful, we probably would have drafted Cushing - I don't think we would have REACHED for Oher - while us fans and the majority of mocks seemed to have him valued very high, the sentiment was obviously not shared by about 2/3 of NFL teams.

So thats how we handle the 1st and 2nd rounds in the draft. Once we get to the lower rounds, i think we would tend to be more balanced with taking BPA with need. While we wont reach more than a spot or two in the 1st round, we may reach a 10-15 spots (according to our board) to fill a need. In the lower rounds, talent level becomes so similar (i.e. the difference in talent between a 1st and 2nd rounder is MUCH more dramatic than the difference between a 3rd and a 7th)

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

If it's a first round pick then I think Vinny genuinely takes the BPA. However after that I think it's honestly think it's a predetermined agenda which ironically has worked well for them with their late round picks, but the fact of the matter is they've taken two safeties, two linebackers (twice), two receivers, two d-tackles, and two OT's (2004) in years where they were considered positions of need. The part I don't like is that Vinny makes it seem like thats how their board shaped up when really they're just taking what they want most of the time.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;555729]It pretty clear to me that in the higher rounds (1-2), we draft BPA period. While we are mindful of needs, we absoultely will not REACH more than a slot or two to take a player just because he fills a need. We may try to trade up or down to fill a need with a player "at the right slot," but if we were unable to do so, we would take the BPA that doesnt fit a need as opposed to "reaching" and taking a player 10 spots too early, just to fill a need. Consider two examples:

[B][U]Example 1: 2008 Draft.[/U][/B] Last year, whoever we had as the best available on our board when we when our 1st round pick came up, was probably someone that didnt fill a position of need. the Best available players that did fit needs were not worth taking at our natural position. So, we tried like hell to trade down - and we succeeded. Unfortunately (depending on your POV), according to vinny, after each spot we got after we traded down, another team selected the player we wanted right before us (probably , Merling, Laws, and Campbell). Thus, we ended up filling one need (WR Devin Thomas) and taking two players we really didnt need at that point (Fred Davis and Malcom Kelly) because they were far and away the best players on our board.

[B][U]Example 2: 2009 Draft.[/U][/B] This year, it was our goal to take the BPA and fill a (perceived) need - QB - and to do this, we tried like hell to trade up but it just didnt work out. At that point, we moved to plan B - fill a need with one of the top 5 players on our board - and to do this, we also tried to trade up. Fortunately, Orakpo fell to us. If he hadnt, we would have tried to trade down. If we were unsuccessful, we probably would have drafted Cushing - I don't think we would have REACHED for Oher - while us fans and the majority of mocks seemed to have him valued very high, the sentiment was obviously not shared by about 2/3 of NFL teams.

So thats how we handle the 1st and 2nd rounds in the draft. Once we get to the lower rounds, i think we would tend to be more balanced with taking BPA with need. While we wont reach more than a spot or two in the 1st round, we may reach a 10-15 spots (according to our board) to fill a need. In the lower rounds, talent level becomes so similar (i.e. the difference in talent between a 1st and 2nd rounder is MUCH more dramatic than the difference between a 3rd and a 7th)[/quote]

Well put!

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=KI Skins Fan;555645]Please try to post one message where you don't criticize or outright insult another poster. The superior tone of your posts has become annoying.[/quote]

Don't read my posts then.

Re: Vinny's Draft Strategy: Best Player or Predetermined Agenda?
 

[quote=BigHairedAristocrat;555729]It pretty clear to me that in the higher rounds (1-2), we draft BPA period. While we are mindful of needs, we absoultely will not REACH more than a slot or two to take a player just because he fills a need. We may try to trade up or down to fill a need with a player "at the right slot," but if we were unable to do so, we would take the BPA that doesnt fit a need as opposed to "reaching" and taking a player 10 spots too early, just to fill a need. Consider two examples:

[B][U]Example 1: 2008 Draft.[/U][/B] Last year, whoever we had as the best available on our board when we when our 1st round pick came up, was probably someone that didnt fill a position of need. the Best available players that did fit needs were not worth taking at our natural position. So, we tried like hell to trade down - and we succeeded. Unfortunately (depending on your POV), according to vinny, after each spot we got after we traded down, another team selected the player we wanted right before us (probably , Merling, Laws, and Campbell). Thus, we ended up filling one need (WR Devin Thomas) and taking two players we really didnt need at that point (Fred Davis and Malcom Kelly) because they were far and away the best players on our board.

[B][U]Example 2: 2009 Draft.[/U][/B] This year, it was our goal to take the BPA and fill a (perceived) need - QB - and to do this, we tried like hell to trade up but it just didnt work out. At that point, we moved to plan B - fill a need with one of the top 5 players on our board - and to do this, we also tried to trade up. Fortunately, Orakpo fell to us. If he hadnt, we would have tried to trade down. If we were unsuccessful, we probably would have drafted Cushing - I don't think we would have REACHED for Oher - while us fans and the majority of mocks seemed to have him valued very high, the sentiment was obviously not shared by about 2/3 of NFL teams.

So thats how we handle the 1st and 2nd rounds in the draft. Once we get to the lower rounds, i think we would tend to be more balanced with taking BPA with need. While we wont reach more than a spot or two in the 1st round, we may reach a 10-15 spots (according to our board) to fill a need. In the lower rounds, talent level becomes so similar (i.e. the difference in talent between a 1st and 2nd rounder is MUCH more dramatic than the difference between a 3rd and a 7th)[/quote]

good summary