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Lotus 07-09-2009 02:46 PM

Football Outsider win predictions
 
This year's Football Outsider Almanac came out today. For what it is worth, here are their predictions for mean wins:

Washington 7.8
Dallas 8.0
NY Giants 10.0
Philadelphia 9.3

Chicago 10.5
Detroit 5.8
Green Bay 7.4
Minnesota 8.8

Atlanta 6.6
Carolina 8.3
New Orleans 7.8
Tampa 7.2

Arizona 5.6
St. Louis 8.2
San Fran 5.7
Seattle 9.9

Buffalo 5.3
Miami 6.4
New England 11.4
NY Jets 6.2

Baltimore 8.8
Cincinnati 6.9
Cleveland 6.6
Pittsburgh 9.6

Houston 6.9
Indianapolis 11.5
Jacksonville 10.2
Tennessee 9.3

Denver 4.9
Kansas City 6.7
Oakland 6.0
San Diego 12.5

They predict that the Chargers will win the Super Bowl.

If you don't understand the numbers, that 7.8 for Washington means that they, by averaging projections, predict the Skins will win about 8 games. The 12.5 for San Diego means that, by averaging projections, San Diego should win 12 or 13 games.

In the past, sometimes Football Outsiders are remarkably correct, such as correctly predicting that Minnesota would win 10 games last year. Sometimes, however, they have been way off, such as predicting that Seattle would win 10.5 games last year.

JLW428 07-09-2009 03:03 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I highly doubt that the chargers will win 12 or more games. Their schedule is pretty tough. Other than their crippled inner devision play, they are going to have a tough time. Outside of the NFC East, they have Baltimore, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Miami...I mean thats a serious line up.

As for the Redskins I think we will go 16-0...nah but realistically I think that Dallas will finnish last in our devision followed by Philly and the Skins take the Wild Card at #2 in the east...

JLW428 07-09-2009 03:07 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=JLW428;566996]I highly doubt that the chargers will win 12 or more games. Their schedule is pretty tough. Other than their crippled inner devision play, they are going to have a tough time. Outside of the NFC East, they have Baltimore, Tennessee, Pittsburgh,[B] Miami[/B]...I mean thats a serious line up.

As for the Redskins I think we will go 16-0...nah but realistically I think that Dallas will finnish last in our devision followed by Philly and the Skins take the Wild Card at #2 in the east...[/quote]

Just to follow up on that Miami part...I think they might actually be ok this year.

MTK 07-09-2009 03:44 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
Miami is looking at a brutal schedule. I say 6 or 7 wins is about right.

DBUCHANON101 07-09-2009 04:26 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
With the loss of T.O I believe Dallas will fall to the bottom of the East.
Philly has new weapons but they are young. and most importantly without Coach Johnson their defense takes a major hit.
Same with the Giants, NO PLAX. NO Spagnuolo. They may take some steps back.
So i think we can be in the mix for the 1 or 2 spot if we can keep CP going and the defense stays stout.

53Fan 07-09-2009 04:26 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I pick us to have a better record than last year. We'll see who's right.

DBUCHANON101 07-09-2009 04:30 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=Lotus;566992]This year's Football Outsider Almanac came out today. For what it is worth, here are their predictions for mean wins:

Washington 7.8
Dallas 8.0
NY Giants 10.0
Philadelphia 9.3

Chicago 10.5
Detroit 5.8
Green Bay 7.4
Minnesota 8.8

Atlanta 6.6
Carolina 8.3
New Orleans 7.8
Tampa 7.2

Arizona 5.6
St. Louis 8.2
San Fran 5.7
Seattle 9.9

Buffalo 5.3
Miami 6.4
New England 11.4
NY Jets 6.2

Baltimore 8.8
Cincinnati 6.9
Cleveland 6.6
Pittsburgh 9.6

Houston 6.9
Indianapolis 11.5
Jacksonville 10.2
Tennessee 9.3

Denver 4.9
Kansas City 6.7
Oakland 6.0
San Diego 12.5

They predict that the Chargers will win the Super Bowl.

If you don't understand the numbers, that 7.8 for Washington means that they, by averaging projections, predict the Skins will win about 8 games. The 12.5 for San Diego means that, by averaging projections, San Diego should win 12 or 13 games.

In the past, sometimes Football Outsiders are remarkably correct, such as correctly predicting that Minnesota would win 10 games last year. Sometimes, however, [B]they have been way off, such as predicting that Seattle would win 10.5 games last year[/B].[/quote]


Well Seattle did have many injuries last yr. So you cant predict that. A healthy Seattle in the West. 10 wins would have been a good prediction IMO

Slingin Sammy 33 07-09-2009 04:37 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=DBUCHANON101;567016]With the loss of T.O I believe Dallas will fall to the bottom of the East.
Philly has new weapons but they are young. and most importantly [B]without Coach Johnson their defense takes a major hit.[/B]
Same with the Giants, [B]NO PLAX. NO Spagnuolo. They may take some steps back[/B].
So i think we can be in the mix for the 1 or 2 spot if we can keep CP going and the defense stays stout.[/quote]
Good post, agree.

GusFrerotte 07-09-2009 05:35 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
Both Athlon's and Lindy's preseason mags had us at an even 8-8. Sporting News went on a negative limb and had us 4-12. I don't think with our weak ass schedule that 4-12 is possible, unless CP and JC get knocked out for the season early or something. All in all, I am thinking the same 7-9 to 9-7 span we have been averaging since the Norv days. Hayneseworth is going to help out for sure, but I am not so certain he is going to have a breakout type year for us.

NYCskinfan82 07-09-2009 05:43 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I like to think positive, all thou i do this before every season starts, 11-5 thats our record. I'll make my playoff predictions later. (meaning win 1 or 2 or go all the way to the SB)

CRedskinsRule 07-09-2009 05:54 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I expect we will win [U]at least[/U] 10 games, and the division title should be in reach. The only way that doesn't happen is if the WR's just completely bomb.

Lotus 07-09-2009 05:58 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567044]I expect we will win [U]at least[/U] 10 games, and the division title should be in reach. [B]The only way that doesn't happen is if the WR's just completely bomb.[/B][/quote]

Right on. Every prediction that I have seen explicitly or implicitly presumes that Devin and Malcolm will not contribute much. If the young receivers do significantly contribute, and I think at least one of them will, our offense looks a lot more dynamic.

BringBackJoeT 07-09-2009 06:49 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567044]I expect we will win [U][B]at least[/B][/U] 10 games, and the division title should be in reach. The only way that doesn't happen is if the WR's just completely bomb.[/quote]

[I]At least?[/I] Really?

skindeep 07-09-2009 07:05 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5

Lotus 07-09-2009 07:22 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=skindeep;567055]@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5[/quote]

We win at both Carolina and Atlanta? That IS positive thinking!

CRedskinsRule 07-09-2009 09:10 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=BringBackJoeT;567053][I]At least?[/I] Really?[/quote]

Yes. Without any changes to our team, you see-
Our first 7 opponents include several teams we should beat and we could be 6-2 by week 9 again.
We really have an easier schedule then last year (no Pitt/Balt and SD in Dec will be perfect weather/timing)
we play Dallas late December, and if they are losing they could very well implode between coaching and Romo/Kitna
we have one less preseason game,
and a slightly better positioned bye.

Changes to our team that should help also:
JC is as motivated as he could ever be
AH should improve our DLine and big play D's
ARE will not be returning punts (i really am sure of this, but no real way to prove it)
JZ will have a season under his belt
For every big play D Hall gives up, we ought to get 1-2 TO's that change a game.
Finally, last year's rookies all now have one year under their belt. (Yes a year can make a huge difference)

Finally,
as the other poster said, our Division rivals all have more transitional issues than us, and I believe Philly and the Giants D's both will see their D's soften slightly under the new coaches.

Lotus 07-09-2009 09:23 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567068]Yes. Without any changes to our team, you see-
Our first 7 opponents include several teams we should beat and we could be 6-2 by week 9 again.
We really have an easier schedule then last year (no Pitt/Balt and SD in Dec will be perfect weather/timing)
[B]we play Dallas late December[/B], and if they are losing they could very well implode between coaching and Romo/Kitna
we have one less preseason game,
and a slightly better positioned bye.

Changes to our team that should help also:
JC is as motivated as he could ever be
AH should improve our DLine and big play D's
ARE will not be returning punts (i really am sure of this, but no real way to prove it)
JZ will have a season under his belt
For every big play D Hall gives up, we ought to get 1-2 TO's that change a game.
Finally, last year's rookies all now have one year under their belt. (Yes a year can make a huge difference)

Finally,
as the other poster said, our Division rivals all have more transitional issues than us, and I believe Philly and the Giants D's both will see their D's soften slightly under the new coaches.[/quote]

Dallas always plays poorly in December.

GusFrerotte 07-09-2009 09:30 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=skindeep;567055]@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5[/quote]

11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.

CRedskinsRule 07-09-2009 09:42 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=GusFrerotte;567070]11-5? I hope so, but[B] then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average.[/B] Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.[/quote]

Given our first 8 opponents, I doubt we will be shown as average; I expect that most media will be pointing at our 6-2 start last year, and comparing our 6-2 or 5-3 start to it, saying that we will probably collapse again. Again, our biggest difference is that instead of playing D's like Pitt and Balt, we will have Oakland, SD and Denver in the final 8. I am very optimistic, and our O-line, though not heavily improved like most of us hoped, will not see the likes of R Lewis, or T Polamalu coming hard on blitzes.
I will admit I always am optimistic at this time, but I believe there is the an absolute reason to be.

GusFrerotte 07-09-2009 09:43 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567044]I expect we will win [U]at least[/U] 10 games, and the division title should be in reach. The only way that doesn't happen is if the WR's just completely bomb.[/quote]


You are forgetting about one major unit that thus far hasn't been really upgraded and that is the offensive line. JC could end up doing a Patrick Ramsey impersonation during the Spurrier days, and CP might get pounded. We might have two weak links in our offense if these newbie WRs do indeed bomb, because odds are the line is going to get banged up often.

GusFrerotte 07-09-2009 09:49 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567073]Given our first 8 opponents, I doubt we will be shown as average; I expect that most media will be pointing at our 6-2 start last year, and comparing our 6-2 or 5-3 start to it, saying that we will probably collapse again. Again, our biggest difference is that instead of playing D's like Pitt and Balt, we will have Oakland, SD and Denver in the final 8. I am very optimistic, and our O-line, though not heavily improved like most of us hoped, will not see the likes of R Lewis, or T Polamalu coming hard on blitzes.
I will admit I always am optimistic at this time, but I believe there is the an absolute reason to be.[/quote]


WE will see. I used to be the 10-6 or 9-7 guy, but since Gibbs II these preseason rags have been pretty much right on. Just hope the Sporting news 4-12 prediction was just a sick joke.

CRedskinsRule 07-09-2009 09:57 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=GusFrerotte;567074]You are forgetting about one major unit that thus far hasn't been really upgraded and that is the offensive line. JC could end up doing a Patrick Ramsey impersonation during the Spurrier days, and CP might get pounded. We might have two weak links in our offense if these newbie WRs do indeed bomb, because odds are the line is going to get banged up often.[/quote]

No, I didn't forget, and I still hope we bring Levi Jones in to back up Samuels. The rest of the line is average to slightly above average talent, and other than our 6 division games, they should hold their own, and we won 3 out of 6 with this unit. I am confident we will at least split our division again.

Schneed10 07-09-2009 10:10 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=skindeep;567055]@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5[/quote]

I count 12 Ws and 4 Ls there.

skinsfaninok 07-09-2009 11:24 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=skindeep;567055]@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up.
11-5[/quote]



Dude there is no way we will win 8 Games in a row.... I hope we will win atleast 9 games this season.. Philly and NY are both pretty good and Dallas has so much talent that they could be very good. I Say 9-7 at best and that's because of our D...

I Don't see our offense being much better.

skinsfaninok 07-09-2009 11:29 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=GusFrerotte;567070]11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.[/quote]


AMEN!!! You guys have to understand that an average OLINE (MUCH LESS OFFENSE OVERALL) can't win you 11 games. Portis need's help because this is a 2 RB league now.. Our WR'S are not great, and JC is under alot of pressure this season.. I see 9-7 at best and 7-9 at worst.

GMScud 07-09-2009 11:31 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I disagree with several of these. IMO: Atlanta will win more than 6 or 7 for sure. Minny will get to 10 wins, not 8 or 9, Indy will finally have a down year and won't get to 11 or 12 wins, maybe more like 8 or 9. Buffalo will win more than 5, Philly will win more than 9, and Carolina and Baltimore will win more than 8. The Giants won't win 10, the Lions won't win 6. And the Redskins will win 10. Also, Chicago won't win 10 or 11, and Green Bay will win more than 7.

And last but not least, picking the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals to be the worst team in the NFC West is just dumb. They can use all the cute little metrics and formulas they want; this list is pretty weak.

PS- I'm also going to bookmark the permalink to this post and see where I stand in January.

djnemo65 07-10-2009 03:53 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
At least Football Outsider's have an actual methodology informing their predictions and aren't just pulling random records out of thin air like pretty much everyone else on the internet machine. I believe they have a decent track record too, although they sure missed on Arizona last year. Anyway, all this list means is that according to their formulae this is where the teams will end up. I think the Skins will be better than they allow but we'll certainly see.

44Deezel 07-10-2009 08:12 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=GusFrerotte;567070]11-5? I hope so, but then reality will sink in by week 6-8 that we are average. Everyone is talking about our young Wrs and rightly so. They are a big wildcard in terms of if we are going to be successful. The prognosticators seem to think Thomas is going to breakout, but they are not too keen on the others. Also they do make a big point about our rather aged offensive line. Those guys collapsed last season, and the FO did not address this glaring need for an upgrade. Haynesworth ard Orakpo will bolster our D, but then again our D was rated 4th while our O was 28th in scoring. I can see us getting lucky at 11-5 only if Kelly and Randle El contribute significantly this year, along with Thomas, and our O line doesn't get busted up by the mid way point of the season. Hard for JC to get these guys the ball if he is getting sacked all the time.[/quote]

Receivers are only as good as their QB. See Roddy White, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, the entire Saints receiving corps and all those scrubs Tom Brady made look good (Deion Branch, Troy Brown, etc.) before Moss and Welker got there.

Just felt like pushing buttons this morning;)

redskins1974 07-10-2009 08:36 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=skindeep;567055]@NYG L
STL W
@DET W
TB W
@CAR W
KC W
PHIL W
-BYE-
@ ATL W
DEN W
@DAL L
@ PHI L
NO W
@OAK W
NYG W
DAL W
@ SD L

Thats how I see it. I split the east because its always a toss up. 11-5[/quote]

whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?

44Deezel 07-10-2009 08:42 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=redskins1974;567138]whens the last time we went undefeated at home at Fed Ex? lol never?[/quote]

It does feel like this could be a good year. Lots of positives to point to - Burress and TO gone and not a lot of flashy off-season moves by the rest of the NFC East, favorable schedule for the Skins, defense looks like it could be all-world. With 8 wins last year, it's not unreasonable to expect more this year... maybe 10-6?

Just got to hope that the 2-6 finish and 12 point per game average wasn't a true indication of Zorn's ability to run an offense.

MTK 07-10-2009 08:45 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I've got no problem with a prediction of 8-8. However I can easily see 10 wins with an improved passing game and a defense that could be special.

44Deezel 07-10-2009 08:49 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=Mattyk72;567140]I've got no problem with a prediction of 8-8. However I can easily see 10 wins with an improved passing game and a defense that could be special.[/quote]

I agree. The passing game can't possibly be any worse. 10 wins is absolutely conceivable. I'm excited to see what the D can do this year.

DBUCHANON101 07-10-2009 10:27 AM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=44Deezel;567132]Receivers are only as good as their QB. See Roddy White, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, the entire Saints receiving corps and all those scrubs Tom Brady made look good (Deion Branch, Troy Brown, etc.) before Moss and Welker got there.

Just felt like pushing buttons this morning;)[/quote]

I agree, Moss has gamebreaking ability -see Dallas and Saints game- and Cooley is a great weapon at TE. so we shouldnt be struggling the way we are,someone else has to step up with those guys getting all of the attention. 13 pts a game over the 2nd half is terrible. and the oline had the same avg of sacks allowed per game over the 2nd half of the season if you dont count the Steeler game-7 sacks. in which they did play bad but it also skews the stats as a whole.

44Deezel 07-10-2009 12:00 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=DBUCHANON101;567156]I agree, Moss has gamebreaking ability -see Dallas and Saints game- and Cooley is a great weapon at TE. so we shouldnt be struggling the way we are,someone else has to step up with those guys getting all of the attention. 13 pts a game over the 2nd half is terrible. and the oline had the same avg of sacks allowed per game over the 2nd half of the season if you dont count the Steeler game-7 sacks. in which they did play bad but it also skews the stats as a whole.[/quote]

Yeah, and there's no reason they shouldn't have done better against the niners when absolutely nothing was on the line. I can understand needing an above average to dominant O line to be successful against the best defenses in the league, but there are no excuses against the likes of the Bengals, Rams and 49ers. Beating a dead horse I know, but there were a lot of other teams with weak receivers and dinged up offensive lines that still managed to field a credible passing attack and put more than 12 points a game on the board. They'll be better this year.

Lotus 07-10-2009 12:55 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
I find two things from 2008 to be fluky:
1) that such a quality defense would get so few turnovers (turnovers are part-skill, part-luck), and
2) that Cooley scored only once. From his stats you can't argue that Cooley had a bad year or that JC could not find him.

To me, the law of averages will have to rectify both of these flukes...and 2009 is a good time for the law of averages to catch up!

GTripp0012 07-10-2009 02:38 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
Read through the Redskins chapter last night and, well, it didn't explain the projection very well.

The Redskins were given basically an even spread between being a 10-win team and a 6 win team, so this prediction really isn't saying that much.

The 11% chance of winning 11+ games does seem about half as much as it should be. In the article, Doug Farrar went at length to tell us how Haynesworth makes us a much better defense, and the offense should be better in the second year under Zorn, and then cites the competitiveness of the division as a reason to expect another average season, but we never really get a concrete reason that the projections don't have us as an improved team. I was disappointed in that.

One thing they said was that we didn't get unlucky with injuries last year, at least less more so in the first half of the season than the second, but their reasons for our two worst performances as a team coming in the last three weeks include, "golly gee, there was probably a reason there." So I think that is reflected in the projections.

So it comes down to this: if you think the last three games was a small sample aberration from our true team last year, they are probably under projecting us by at least a game and a half. If you think those games show legitimate problems with our offense and defense that were only mitigated by our offseason, then this is probably an 8-win team.

I'm doing an interview with them, so I'll have more to say later.

GTripp0012 07-10-2009 02:50 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
The really fascinating thing is [U][URL="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2009/introducing-dvoa-v60"]here[/URL][/U].

They did a DVOA update, and the Redskins more than doubled in efficiency from last year. Only the Jaguars benefited more from the new system. Mostly, that change is seen in our rushing offense, which then now have ranked sixth.

All in all, I see very little reason to believe that we aren't an improved team, and furthermore, very little reason to believe that DVOA wouldn't see it that way.

The Goat 07-10-2009 03:02 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=CRedskinsRule;567068]Yes. Without any changes to our team, you see-
Our first 7 opponents include several teams we should beat and we could be 6-2 by week 9 again.
We really have an easier schedule then last year (no Pitt/Balt and SD in Dec will be perfect weather/timing)
we play Dallas late December, and if they are losing they could very well implode between coaching and Romo/Kitna
we have one less preseason game,
and a slightly better positioned bye.

[B]Changes to our team that should help also:
JC is as motivated as he could ever be
AH should improve our DLine and big play D's
ARE will not be returning punts (i really am sure of this, but no real way to prove it)
JZ will have a season under his belt
For every big play D Hall gives up, we ought to get 1-2 TO's that change a game.
Finally, last year's rookies all now have one year under their belt. (Yes a year can make a huge difference)

Finally,
as the other poster said, our Division rivals all have more transitional issues than us, and I believe Philly and the Giants D's both will see their D's soften slightly under the new coaches[/B].[/quote]

Nice post...a well reasoned positive outlook. The kicker IMO is whether Thomas or Kelly breakout. That will change everything on offense almost instantly. Personally I feel Devin is the better prospect for a breakout (this season). I really, really hope he and JC have developed chemistry. Wouldn't it be amazing to have an offense really fun to watch again!?

The Goat 07-10-2009 03:14 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=44Deezel;567176][B]Yeah, and there's no reason they shouldn't have done better against the niners when absolutely nothing was on the line. I can understand needing an above average to dominant O line to be successful against the best defenses in the league, but there are no excuses against the likes of the Bengals, Rams and 49ers.[/B] Beating a dead horse I know, but there were a lot of other teams with weak receivers and dinged up offensive lines that still managed to field a credible passing attack and put more than 12 points a game on the board. They'll be better this year.[/quote]

I think the explanation to this is simply having one of the worst, if not the worst, oline in the league over the long haul. It's not an easy pill to swallow but thinking about how that group was absolutely destroyed by Pitt, Baltimore, NY and Dallas during the 2nd half of the season then it's no surprise the oline never recovered...so even the Bengals, Rams the niners were a challenge.

It's interesting to see how focus on the state of the oline has waned this off-season within the franchise and fanbase. I want to believe we've done enough to avoid another collapse, but i can't agree w/ how our FO has handled the situation. We're literally one injury away from the line falling to pieces (Samuels) and if any two of the other starters went down the offense would grind to halt.

DBUCHANON101 07-10-2009 03:22 PM

Re: Football Outsider win predictions
 
[quote=44Deezel;567176]Yeah, and there's no reason they shouldn't have done better against the niners when absolutely nothing was on the line. I can understand needing an above average to dominant O line to be successful against the best defenses in the league, but there are no excuses against the likes of the Bengals, Rams and 49ers. Beating a dead horse I know, but there were a lot of other teams with weak receivers and dinged up offensive lines that still managed to field a credible passing attack and put more than 12 points a game on the board. They'll be better this year.[/quote]

I agree


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