Bulletin Board Material for SF Game!!
 

Before I tell you how the public is showing huge disrespect for the Washington Redskins of 2004, let me be sure everyone understands something about betting lines in Las Vegas.

When the oddmskers set the line, they are NOT setting the line where they think the score difference will come out. The books are not in the business of gambling; they are in the business of making money off people who gamble. They do not care who wins any game nor do they care what the differential is - as long as they have set their line correctly.

The betting line is the oddmsakers' best guess at a number such that the same amount of money is bet on either side of the line. They may think a game will be won by two TDs but if the ALSO think the balance point for the public is 6 points, the line will be at 6 points.

Since you bet $110 to win $100 against the spread in Vegas, if they can balance the books, they keep the 10% "juice" and make a profit. That's why they are not in the gambling business; they are in the business of making money off people who gamble.

So much for the preamble...

The line for the Redskins/49ers game this weekend is Skins - 3.5. That is not a typographical error, folks. That means that the oddsmakers are relatively confident that there will be the same amount of money put on either side of that number. Sometimes they are off a bit and the line has to move a little, but this line won't be 8 or 9 by game time; you can bet on that statement! If you want to know why I say that they are generally correct in guessing where the public betting sentiment is, just go to Vegas and look at all the infrastructure costs there. They don't pay for them by losing more money on football betting than they take in!

So the betting public thinks that the Redskins this year are only about a field goal better than the sorry-assed SF 49ers who would probably only be a 7 point favorite over USC. That is an insult of great proportion. Last week, the Arizona "Bleeping" Cardinals were 7 point favorites over that same sorry-assed 49er team. Now the Skins are only 3.5 favorites? :mad:

That betting line should annoy the bejeepers out of the Redskins' players and they ought to use it as motivation to go out and put a major beat down on the 49ers. The Skins are 10 points better than SF; with that news, they ought to win by 17.

home teams always get +3 points then other odds are put in

[QUOTE=Duffman003]home teams always get +3 points then other odds are put in[/QUOTE]
yeah I was just going to say that

So if the Skins were home they would be 6.5 point favorites.

Is this correct SC? Doesn't the home team start off at 3 point favs?

That 3 point line is kind of a rule of thumb, but not etched in stone.

The really insulting thing is that the Niners coach has all but lobbied to leave his team. The players are quitting on him, and he on them. I believe they started Ken Dorsey last week, who makes Danny Wuerfful look like Johnny U.

[b]Skins -3.5???[/b]

A 6.5 point spread (factoring in home-field advantage) isn't ridiculous considering the kinds of points we've put up this season. That said, we'll easily beat it. :)

how much were we supposed to the Eagles by

I believe Dorsey is starting for the 9er's these day's if he's starting against us we will destroy San Fran, our defense is way to fast for that weak arm of his now that's a game Taylor could go nut's on the defensive side of the ball, I don't think that line will hold but if it does there's money to be made on the Skin's this week.

[QUOTE=illdefined]how much were we supposed to the Eagles by[/QUOTE]

supposed to LOSE by sorry

[QUOTE=illdefined]supposed to LOSE by sorry[/QUOTE]

The Line on that game was Redskins +9.

I dont care, being 3.5 point favorites? Thats free money. Against any other team in the league, I'd consider if fishy, but the NINERS??? Common, I would think that line would be 6/7

A good day to bet on the skins!

yeah i don't think we've earned a huge spread over them. i'd say about 6/7 counting their "home field." but yeah i still agree we'll up 'em by 14-17.

place all your betts!

hah................................................... pathetic...

[QUOTE=Gmanc711]The Line on that game was Redskins +9.

I dont care, being 3.5 point favorites? Thats free money. Against any other team in the league, I'd consider if fishy, but the NINERS??? Common, I would think that line would be 6/7[/QUOTE]
+8.5 was the game time line.

BrudLee is right. That "three point swing" for the home team is not etched in stone and in fact it owes most of its "popularity" to the late but not overly lamented Jimmy the Greek Snyder. Talk about a poser... but that's a different story.

I assure you that the oddsmakers know that the public knows that every team has a different home field advantage. Just think about it for a minute. You are playing at SF against this sorry-assed team and their home field is worth 3 points. Or you could be playing the Pats in New England in late December when it is 5 below zero and you are a dome team - and that home field is worth the same e points?

Remember, the oddsmakers want to adjust the line to what YOU believe the home field advantage may be because they want the same money bet on either side of the ledger.

So, the betting public in the US had the Cardinals 7 points better than the 49ers and now they have the Redskins only 3.5 better. If the players in the Skins' locker room do not take that as an insult, they shouldn't be able to look the bank teller in the eye when they cash this game check!

That is what the football fans of America think of this team. That is outrageous!

A 'W' is all I care about and all the team should really care about too.

If a point spread gives the team a little extra motivation that's great, but how much attention do they really pay to the spreads? I'm sure a few players might watch that kind of thing, but as a whole does the team even think about things like that come Sunday, or Saturday in this case.

The 49ers dont even get fans to come to their games. Werent they complaining about that like a week ago? I'm putting seroius considerations on betting this game, and I'm not a big gambler.

I am amazed that people actually think the redskins will win this game by 14 - 17 points when the redskins cant even score that many points. I think redskins fans need to face the facts that the team is not that good and have done nothing to make anyone not a skins fans to think they are good. The line is good and the skins will barely cover it.

[QUOTE=irish]I am amazed that people actually think the redskins will win this game by 14 - 17 points when the redskins cant even score that many points. I think redskins fans need to face the facts that the team is not that good and have done nothing to make anyone not a skins fans to think they are good. The line is good and the skins will barely cover it.[/QUOTE]

:doh:

Nobody here thinks that we're [I]that good[/I], but come on we're playing the shittiest team in the NFL. We have the No. 2 defense in the league, and our offense is starting to show some kind of life. I guarantee we beat them by more 14. Look at what we did to the Giants!

I really doubt we'll [I]barely[/I] cover. We will beat these guys just like we beat the Giants. Running the ball, and burning the clock.

You actually think the 49ers will score against our D?

[QUOTE=Gmanc711]The 49ers dont even get fans to come to their games. Werent they complaining about that like a week ago? I'm putting seroius considerations on betting this game, and I'm not a big gambler.[/QUOTE]


You know what, I have never gambled in my life and I'm also seriously considering taking this game. You have to believe that with our defense and our running game there is no way these guys can even score on us.

We should be able to roll the 49ers like we did the Giants.

If we can't put up at least 20 points and hold them to less than 10 then something is seriously wrong.

Redskins P if you give me 14 points I'll take the 49ers in a heartbeat.

If the niners are the shittiest than what are the Cardinals who lost to them twice? And what has been so great about the skins running game? They looked great against the crummy Giants (who are really the worst in the NFL) but against stronger teams the skins running game is average.

I am sure the niners will score against the redskins and I'm pretty certain the skins will win, but by 14, I doubt it. The skins will win by a TD.

just put 300 on the skins, the line is 4 points now, but i bought a point, so the line is -3, and the pay off is 215, i havent bet in a while, but ur right.. this should be a win....
unfortunately, nothing is ever a sure thing ....

irish:

You just made my point. You want the 49ers with 14 points but the line is only 3.5.

The 49ers offense is slightly better than the Giant's offense - but nothing to write home about. Don't check the yardage stats and tell me that the Giants gain more yards per game than the 49ers because those averages include the early season games before the Giants went to Eli Manning and their offense came apart at the seams. The 49ers are not a good running team and if they become one-dimensional the Skins' blitzing defense can handle Dorsey. That is not Michael Vick back there in terms of "escapability".

The 49ers defense is not as good as the Giants' defense even with all the injuries in NY.

Unless the Skins come out totally flat and unfocused, this game should resemble the Giants' game from a couple of weeks ago.

I want the 14 points because you are giving it to me and only an idiot would pass up that deal.

These Vegas lines have nothing to do with respect and are rarely as far off as you suggest this line is. The reason this line is as close as it is is because unbiased outsiders who really pay attention to football and everything that goes into creating a Vegas line have calculated that these teams are not as much different. Sure the skins have a great D but the O cant score and I'm sure that lack of scoring ability is what weighed heavily on the decision to make this line as low as it is.

Looking at the stats I found what could be a way to justify the spread. The skins average 14.1 ppg on O and give up 16.8 ppg on D. SF averages 17.6 ppg on O and gives up 28 ppg on D. Averaging what the skins score on O (14.1) with what SF gives up on D (28) gives a number of 21 ppg. Doing the same for SF and averaging what SF gets on O (17.6) with what the skins give up on D (16.8) gives a number of 17.2 ppg. So from those averages we get a final score of:

Skins 21
SF 17

Thats pretty close to the Vegas line.

[QUOTE=irish]Looking at the stats I found what could be a way to justify the spread. The skins average 14.1 ppg on O and give up 16.8 ppg on D. SF averages 17.6 ppg on O and gives up 28 ppg on D. Averaging what the skins score on O (14.1) with what SF gives up on D (28) gives a number of 21 ppg. Doing the same for SF and averaging what SF gets on O (17.6) with what the skins give up on D (16.8) gives a number of 17.2 ppg. So from those averages we get a final score of:

Skins 21
SF 17

Thats pretty close to the Vegas line.[/QUOTE]

I have to disagree w/ you irish. Look at how our D played against the most explosive offense in the NFC. We held them to 17 points. So, I don't see how the 49ers can even put up 10 on us. They have a mediocre at best running game ( I think our running game is much better ) and they have no downfield threats at WR.

I could careless about what both teams average. We scored 31 points on the Giants, and were a couples short of beating the Eagles. I don't pay attention to the "averages".

I tend to believe longer term averages that one or two game flash in the pans.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying the skins will lose I'm only saying they will barely cover the spread instead of the 14 point blowout some in this thread have suggested.

I hear ya irish. I think anyone who says we're losing this game has some serious issues.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think we can crush these guys. We're coming off a tough loss, and I think the players still want make a statement in these last 3 games. We shall see.

Redskins P, I'll see you back here Monday to discuss how right (or wrong) we were. I hope you are right though.

[QUOTE=irish]Redskins P, I'll see you back here Monday to discuss how right (or wrong) we were. I hope you are right though.[/QUOTE]


Shoot, me too irish!! I hope I'm right. I'll be looking for you on Monday ;)

Ok P, at least the skins won but had the D not scored that TD my score would have been almost exactly correct. The O is pathetic and until those problems are fixed this team cannot be taken seriously.

[QUOTE=irish]Ok P, at least the skins won but had the D not scored that TD my score would have been almost exactly correct. The O is pathetic and until those problems are fixed this team cannot be taken seriously.[/QUOTE]

You're absolutely right irish. We could've scored more than 35 points if we would've scored TD's in the redzone.

It all starts with the o-line. We can't get any holes for Clinton in the redzone. Also Gibbs please stop calling plays that have the guard or tackle pulling. We need to run straight at em. Hit em in the mouth.

[QUOTE=Redskins_P]You're absolutely right irish. We could've scored more than 35 points if we would've scored TD's in the redzone.

It all starts with the o-line. We can't get any holes for Clinton in the redzone. Also Gibbs please stop calling plays that have the guard or tackle pulling. We need to run straight at em. Hit em in the mouth.[/QUOTE]

hat on hat, let Portis pick his holes. i thought we learned that. it only took us the whole season, and now we're going back. grrr.

we don;t have the personnel to hit em in the mouth, until we do, we have the personnel to cut block the Dline and outrun the chasing linebackers. not very Gibbs i know.

think Gibbs wanted to experiment his old way against the lowly 9'ers and you could see Portis wasn't happy.

I think we've got to give some credit to the 49ers, they played the run pretty tough and they didn't just roll over for us. San Fran is 13th in the league against the rush, so they're not exactly a pushover.

And didn't Portis end up with 110 yards on the ground? It might not have been a pretty 100 yard day but hey, it got the job done.

Portis did get 100 yds but it took what 45 carries. Thats around 3 yds per carry. Not pretty is the understatement of the week. This O has serious problems and until these are fixed the redskins cant be taken seriously. I knew this would be a close game by the fact of the redskins putrid offense. Every redskin win will be close as long as this offense continues to stink.

Portis was 33 for 103 yards I belive. Not staggering numbers, but stilll got 100.

but 0 TDs, from inside the 10, vs the 49ers. there's a problem there. our DEFENSIVE line had more to do with Portis's carries than our offensive line did.

Checking on nfl.com, portis had 35 carries for 110 yds. Thats 3.1 yds per carry.

checking on nfl.com we got the 'W'

I really don't care how it happened

Irish, we're 5-9, who's taking us seriously anyway??

Yeah we have problems at the goal line, but at least we can move the ball, that's a huge improvement from earlier in the year.

Those 35 carries from Portis helped us have a large advantage in TOP with 36:59 to 23:01.

Like I said, not pretty but effective.

[QUOTE=Mattyk72]checking on nfl.com we got the 'W'

I really don't care how it happened [/QUOTE]

vs. any other team in the league i would agree with you.

[QUOTE=illdefined]vs. any other team in the league i would agree with you.[/QUOTE]
It's too late to be worried about style points, at this point I'll take the W's any way they come.