2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

Continuing the QB prospects discussion with a fresh thread

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

I spotted this article yesterday on Robert Griffin III. I know there are a lot of Redskins fans (at least on ES) that want the 'skins to draft RG III next year. But, could it be possible that RG III decides not to even go into the NFL?

[URL="http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-12-14/robert-griffin-iii-named-sporting-news-player-of-the-year"]Robert Griffin III named Sporting News' player of the year - NCAA Football - Sporting News[/URL]

[quote="RG III"]“You gotta have a plan, but realize that plans don’t always work out. Plan B is the NFL,” Griffin says.[/quote]

Griffin's primary plan is to go to law school, and I think he wants to petition the NCAA to let him try out for the summer Olympics.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868265]I spotted this article yesterday on Robert Griffin III. I know there are a lot of Redskins fans (at least on ES) that want the 'skins to draft RG III next year. But, could it be possible that RG III decides not to even go into the NFL?

[URL="http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-12-14/robert-griffin-iii-named-sporting-news-player-of-the-year"]Robert Griffin III named Sporting News' player of the year - NCAA Football - Sporting News[/URL]



Griffin's primary plan is to go to law school, and I think he wants to petition the NCAA to let him try out for the summer Olympics.[/quote]

Yeah doesn't sound very promising for him to come out for the draft. Only way that happens is if the NCAA denies his appeal to play while at law school. What are the chances of that happening. If he doesn't come out and Indy takes Luck at #1 and Miami jumps over us and takes Barkley we are screwed.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=SkinzWin;868267]Yeah doesn't sound very promising for him to come out for the draft. Only way that happens is if the NCAA denies his appeal to play while at law school. What are the chances of that happening. If he doesn't come out and Indy takes Luck at #1 and Miami jumps over us and takes Barkley we are screwed.[/quote]

I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868270]I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.[/quote]

I don't think that is going to happen in any way, shape, or form. They won't give up Schaub to roll with Yates...

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=mbedner3420;868271]I don't think that is going to happen in any way, shape, or form. They won't give up Schaub to roll with Yates...[/quote]

One thing I have learned by watching the NFL for the past 30+ years, never say never. Never thought the 49ers would let Montana walk, but they did. Never thought the 'skins would bench John Riggins for George Rogers, but they did. If Houston makes a deep run in the playoffs with Yates, it could definitely happen. Now, is it likely Houston makes a deep run in the playoffs? That's really the question. I haven't really sat down and watched any Texans games other than the parts I see on the Redzone, but the kid keeps leading Houston to wins.

In my opinion, if the 'skins HAD to go the free agency route or the trade route for a vet QB, Schaub would be the best fit. Now really, it's more likely the Redskins draft a QB, I know this. But, there is always a better than outside chance that this scenario happens IF AND ONLY IF, Houston makes a deep run in the playoffs - and especially if they happen to make the Super Bowl. If the latter happened, consider Matt Schaub gone from Houston.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868274]One thing I have learned by watching the NFL for the past 30+ years, never say never.[B] Never thought the 49ers would let Montana walk, but they did. Never thought the 'skins would bench John Riggins for George Rogers, but they did.[/B] If Houston makes a deep run in the playoffs with Yates, it could definitely happen. Now, is it likely Houston makes a deep run in the playoffs? That's really the question. I haven't really sat down and watched any Texans games other than the parts I see on the Redzone, but the kid keeps leading Houston to wins.

[/quote]

I'm not sure if those examples are pertinent. Riggins was 35 when they went with Rogers; that's ancient for a RB. Montana was 37 and at the end of his career. Matt Schaub is 30 and very much in the prime of his career. If Houston were to deal anyone, it would be Yates.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

Yeah the Texans getting rid of Schaub seems like a real stretch at this point.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

?? What's Schaub's contract status?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Mattyk;868299]Yeah the Texans getting rid of Schaub seems like a real stretch at this point.[/quote]

Yes, at this point, you are correct! And again, I did state, I see the Redskins drafting a QB more likely. BUT, what if, JUST WHAT IF, the Texans make it to the Super Bowl with Yates? WHAT IF, Yates breaks out during the playoffs and out plays ever other QB - at least on the AFC side. Would it be such a stretch then?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Coff;868298]I'm not sure if those examples are pertinent. Riggins was 35 when they went with Rogers; that's ancient for a RB. Montana was 37 and at the end of his career. Matt Schaub is 30 and very much in the prime of his career. If Houston were to deal anyone, it would be Yates.[/quote]

So if Yates gets the Texans to the Super Bowl, you'd still say Houston would deal Yates over Schaub?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868270]I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.[/quote] The only way I see the Texas sticking with Yates is if he takes them to the Superbowl and look just as good or better than Schaub while doing it. It not, that scenario is highly unlikely. I don't Matt Schaub or any other teams franchise qb. We need to draft our own.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868310]Yes, at this point, you are correct! And again, I did state, I see the Redskins drafting a QB more likely. BUT, what if, JUST WHAT IF, the Texans make it to the Super Bowl with Yates? WHAT IF, Yates breaks out during the playoffs and out plays ever other QB - at least on the AFC side. Would it be such a stretch then?[/quote]

Another stretch... IF Yates took them to the SB who knows. It would also depend on his contract situation.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868270]I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.[/quote]

IF we can't draft a top first round talent QB, then I think that is unlikely but ideal. For a more likely scenario, I suggest reading my sig.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Mattyk;868315]Another stretch... IF Yates took them to the SB who knows. It would also depend on his contract situation.[/quote]

Definitely right now, it's a stretch considering New England would just out score the Texans, and the Ravens D would give Yates a headache - however, I'm sure the same was said about Tom Brady back in the day, so who knows? We'll find out.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868265]I spotted this article yesterday on Robert Griffin III. I know there are a lot of Redskins fans (at least on ES) that want the 'skins to draft RG III next year. But, could it be possible that RG III decides not to even go into the NFL?

[URL="http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-12-14/robert-griffin-iii-named-sporting-news-player-of-the-year"]Robert Griffin III named Sporting News' player of the year - NCAA Football - Sporting News[/URL]



Griffin's primary plan is to go to law school, and I think he wants to petition the NCAA to let him try out for the summer Olympics.[/quote] When did he make those statements? I haven't seen that story anywhere outside of that one outlet.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=SkinzWin;868316]IF we can't draft a top first round talent QB, then I think that is unlikely but ideal. For a more likely scenario, I suggest reading my sig.[/quote]


Definitely agree, I'm just thinking in terms of what can the Redskins do if for some reason, they are not in the position come draft day to draft the QB that fits their system the best?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Landry44;868321]When did he make those statements? I haven't seen that story anywhere outside of that one outlet.[/quote]

Well that article did quote him. Not sure exactly when he made that statement, but this article came out a day or two ago.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868322]Definitely agree, I'm just thinking in terms of what can the Redskins do if for some reason, they are not in the position come draft day to draft the QB that fits their system the best?[/quote]

Move to Los Angeles. LOL. We would take Blackmon and draft a 2nd round QB and Kellen Moore late.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868265]I spotted this article yesterday on Robert Griffin III. I know there are a lot of Redskins fans (at least on ES) that want the 'skins to draft RG III next year. But, could it be possible that RG III decides not to even go into the NFL?

[URL="http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-12-14/robert-griffin-iii-named-sporting-news-player-of-the-year"]Robert Griffin III named Sporting News' player of the year - NCAA Football - Sporting News[/URL]



Griffin's primary plan is to go to law school, and I think he wants to petition the NCAA to let him try out for the summer Olympics.[/quote]

Wow. That's really going to hurt his draft position. I was really hoping we draft this kid. When was the last time we had a guy with this type of superstar potential? Maybe #21?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?!

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

The real question is.............

Should the skins......."Squeeze out a turd for Robert Griffin the third????""

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

The hit to bust rate is about two-thirds hits to one third busts for the years 2002-2007 for first rounders that aren't also top ten picks. That's just a back of the napkin calculation that I did.

To recap: about 80% hits for top ten players
about 65% hits for 11-32.

I'm going to do a value analysis to see if the chances of getting a "big time" player in the top ten are much better than those odds.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

Wasn't we linked to picking up Matt Flynn the back-up QB in gray bay, he's a FA at the end of the season.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

A couple things on a study I am doing.

Between 1997-2006, a top ten overall pick was about 38% more valuable than a pick between 11-32, and about 22% more valuable than a random pick within the first round. A top five pick is about 27% more valuable than a random pick in the first round.

First overall picks come out as 55% more valuable, but that's more a sampling issue because my sample contains Peyton Manning. If you do the same thing but just from 1999-2006, first overall picks are only 14% more valuable than a random selection in the first round. Again, that's a sample size issue, which is why stat guys can't say "the first overall pick is with 'X'".

In fact, it's been harder to find a good QB in the top five picks in the last seven drafts than it has been in the rest of the first round. Again, that's a sampling issue. And the Aaron Rodgers effect.

The only metric I used was PFR's career AV. I did not take into account the value of the contract signed by draft position. Just the value of the players career to date. Obviously, this methodology underrates the value of players drafted in 2005 and 2006 vs. 1999 and 2000, but that's an evil I was willing to live with.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/16/report-robert-griffin-iiis-parents-interviewing-agents/]Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk[/url]

[QUOTE=skinsguy;868270]I was thinking about this yesterday as well. One scenario that I could probably live with is Yates leading Houston deep in the playoffs, Houston deciding to go with Yates for the long haul, and trading Schaub to the Redskins to move up in the draft. The Redskins could then keep adding depth to the offensive line, drafting some linebackers or a good shut down safety. That would make a lot of sense for the Redskins, considering that Matt Schaub already knows Kyle's offense, so no learning curve - MS could be plugged in while the 'skins continue to build the team around him.

The Redskins could still draft a QB in 2013 or 2014, and give him time to hold a clip board like Aaron Rodgers. I could definitely live with this scenario.[/QUOTE]

So you're saying if the constantly underachieving with Schaub Texans go deep in the playoffs without him...then you'd be cool with trading our top pick for him?

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=The Goat;868350]WTF Griffin wants to go to law school before being an NFL star?! Really?![/quote]

[url=http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/2011/12/16/2641568/robert-griffin-iii-baylor-agent-nfl-draft-pro-parents]Robert Griffin III's Parents Shopping For Agent, According To Report - SBNation.com[/url]

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=REDSKINS4ever;868369]According to a report on Profootballtalk.com, RG3's parents are already interviewing agents.

[url=http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/16/report-robert-griffin-iiis-parents-interviewing-agents/]Report: Robert Griffin III’s parents interviewing agents | ProFootballTalk[/url][/quote]

No surprise, A guy this smart knows the famous BoB Marley lyric, strike the hammer while the iron is hot. of course Silverback and Fred Davis could know that lyric too, but not the meaning

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

some guys just don't want to hop in the Pros right away I guess... Oh well

speaking of that

[url=http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/11/6/2542797/oklahoma-landry-jones-2012-nfl-draft]Scouts say Oklahoma's Landry Jones shouldn't enter 2012 NFL Draft - Mocking The Draft[/url]

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868323]Well that article did quote him. Not sure exactly when he made that statement, but this article came out a day or two ago.[/quote] I have no doubt that the article quoted him. The thing is if RG3 said that a day ago it would all over espn and other sports outlets. So I highly doubt if that quote was recent.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Chico23231;868373]No surprise, A guy this smart knows the famous BoB Marley lyric, strike the hammer while the iron is hot. of course Silverback and Fred Davis could know that lyric too, but not the meaning[/quote]

Cheap shot.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Landry44;868380]I have no doubt that the article quoted him. The thing is if RG3 said that a day ago it would all over espn and other sports outlets. So I highly doubt if that quote was recent.[/quote]

Honestly, it would be the smartest thing any NFL prospect has ever done. Make sure your future is taken care of. Finish school, compete in the Olympics (which is a huge honor) and then see what the NFL has to offer. Sure, he can make big money in the NFL, but he can also get seriously hurt right away (not that I'd ever wish that on anybody) and never make it in the NFL. That makes me respect RG III that much more.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868418]Honestly, it would be the smartest thing any NFL prospect has ever done. Make sure your future is taken care of. Finish school, compete in the Olympics (which is a huge honor) and then see what the NFL has to offer. Sure, he can make big money in the NFL, but he can also get seriously hurt right away (not that I'd ever wish that on anybody) and never make it in the NFL. That makes me respect RG III that much more.[/quote] That wouldn't be smart at all. Right now, his stock is high. If he goes back he risk injury and stock falling. I've been watching Baylor all season and that offensive line did a very poor job protecting RG3. He was sacked 23 times and if it wasn't for his mobility he would have been sacked and hit a hell of a lot more. The smartest thing he can do is come out. He can finish his law degree in the spring which is what he planned to do anyway.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Landry44;868423]That wouldn't be smart at all. Right now, his stock is high. If he goes back he risk injury and stock falling. I've been watching Baylor all season and that offensive line did a very poor job protecting RG3. He was sacked 23 times and if it wasn't for his mobility he would have been sacked and hit a hell of a lot more. The smartest thing he can do is come out. He can finish his law degree in the spring which is what he planned to do anyway.[/quote]

Hey, you think in terms of strictly football and money, I think in terms of life. The NFL doesn't guarantee you a thing. Sure, there are no guarantees in life either, but having that degree first and having a game plan set in place for the long term is always much wiser than putting all of your eggs into one basket in terms of a sport. He stays in school, gets his degree, he's set for the long term. He can play in the NFL knowing he can have fun for a few years, retire, and go straight into law. Don't be blinded by the $$$ signs. A lot of that money is not guaranteed.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsguy;868428]Hey, you think in terms of strictly football and money, I think in terms of life. The NFL doesn't guarantee you a thing. Sure, there are no guarantees in life either, but having that degree first and having a game plan set in place for the long term is always much wiser than putting all of your eggs into one basket in terms of a sport. He stays in school, gets his degree, he's set for the long term. He can play in the NFL knowing he can have fun for a few years, retire, and go straight into law. Don't be blinded by the $$$ signs. A lot of that money is not guaranteed.[/quote] I'm thinking in terms of what's a good moves and bad ones. RG3 is a top ten pick and will have a big pay day coming into the league. He's going to get at least 10 million guaranteed. He can always go to law school. But, if he gets injured, he can kiss his nfl career goodbye. To stay would be a bad move. He would be risking way to much.

Wait a minute. I stayed in school and got my degree. Heck, I even got my graduate degree...and I'm hardly set for life

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

You can always finish up school later on. I say take your shot at the NFL while you can.

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=Mattyk;868445]You can always finish up school later on. I say take your shot at the NFL while you can.[/quote]


Some seem to think RGIII really isn't concerned about the NFL right now..

Re: 2012 Draft-QB Prospects (Part III)
 

[quote=skinsfaninok;868450]Some seem to think RGIII really isn't concerned about the NFL right now..[/quote]

I won't believe that equates to him having low or no interest in the sport.