Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Jay Gruden Pass ratio: [url]https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct[/url]
[U]Bengals[/U]
2013-57
2012-58
2011-56

[U]Washington[/U]
2014-60% pass (#15 in the NFL)

Just for frame of reference:

Seattle: 49% pass (#31 in the NFL)
San Fran:53% pass (#26 in the NFL)
Green Bay: 56% pass (#23 in the NFL)

We've all heard the soundbites of McCloughan of his vision for the offense which he seems to bring with him from Seattle and San Fran:

“We have a similar philosophy about big guys, smart guys, tough guys. We want to be able to run the ball, be able to pound the ball and get that D-line to want to quit and understand that when you play the Washington Redskins, we’ll come at you no matter what.”

But for me when I look at Scott's vision it doesn't seem to mesh with what we know of Jay's history and tendencies. I've posted Jay play calling/game plan tendencies in regards to pass/run ratio above. Jay has been a pass focused OC and even moreso as a HC. Marvin Lewis, a decidedly defensive oriented HC was able to limit Jay's pass focus to ~57%. (in his absence they've dropped to 52% pass) But last year when Jay had total control his pass % jumped up to 60%.

I see 2 distinct offensive philosophies when I look at Jay and Scott and I wonder whether or not Jay will follow Scott's lead or will Jay maintain his offensive philosophy/tendencies?

Enough of the preamble....do you think Jay's pass ratio will drop to reflect a shift to being more run focused? And do you want it to?

(was gonna make a poll but didn't see the poll option)

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

He did say there would be some re working of the offense, I'm hoping it includes running the ball more often and MUCH more creatively ... I was oft very tired of seeing the same stretch run 10 times a game... So, honestly I hope we change the run scheme up a bit... And run it more, if it doesn't happen? Get ready for semi similar results on that side of the ball.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

I think we'll see just how far SM's influence goes by how Jay calls plays this year.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Last season we had a weak offensive line and even worse defense. I know nobody is implying that if we just magically changed our play calling we would have been better. But to artificially set a % of run to pass and win, you have to have start with a good talented team that is not playing from behind all the time.
When it comes to play calling % run to pass, I would rather do what works and not be predictable. To have the skill/flexibility to (hypothetically) run 60% one game and come right back the next game and pass 60% and win. Just win, be dynamic and not be predicable. i would like that.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Jay's hiring of Callahan says a lot in my opinion. That points to a desire to get more physical and run more effectively, which Jay talked about last year even before McCloughan was hired.

I think a big part of the reason for passing so much was the lack of success running on first down. Our first-down-YPC average was 5.43, 20th in the league. I bet Gruden gets the fuzzies thinking about adding a big mauler in Scherff and a nasty versatile runner in Jones to his offense.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

I'd love to be a 50-50 offense but I would bet on running the ball much more

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

I think it will be a......[B]real good plan[/B] on J's part to be straight up and on board with SM....
He doesn't need any..competition for the HC position

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=Mattyk;1113568]I think we'll see just how far SM's influence goes by how Jay calls plays this year.[/quote]


Why should play calling or offense be dictated by the GM? If this is the case, maybe he needs to pick his own coach? (which I'm fine with)




That said, I think Jay is going to run a lot more this year. I think Jay (and Scott) both know that they can't rely on any of the QBs on the roster and that a solid OL and run game will carry the team a long way.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=NC_Skins;1113577]Why should play calling or offense be dictated by the GM? If this is the case, maybe he needs to pick his own coach? (which I'm fine with)




That said, I think Jay is going to run a lot more this year. I think Jay (and Scott) both know that they can't rely on any of the QBs on the roster and that a solid OL and run game will carry the team a long way.[/quote]

Based on the type of talent SM is adding, Gruden better use it accordingly is all. If the offensive side of the ball is shaping up to be a running team, he sure as hell better run it. It's not about SM dictating anything, I just want to see how Gruden adjusts.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

I would think it should be a gradual trend towards running more over the next two or three years.

Game situation is the majority of what causes our pass percentages. Over time, a better defense, better special teams and better execution on the offense (line and QB) will allow us to be more run heavy.

Not sure it will manifest completly this year...would be nice though.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=Mattyk;1113578]Based on the type of talent SM is adding, Gruden better use it accordingly is all. If the offensive side of the ball is shaping up to be a running team, he sure as hell better run it. It's not about SM dictating anything, I just want to see how Gruden adjusts.[/quote]

yup...if not, lets welcome Bill Calahan or Darrell Bevell as your new Redskins HC.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

It has already been alluded to here in this thread, but since run/pass ratio is one of the most poorly understood metrics in football and one of the most poorly-reported by the media, I think it has to be said very clearly:

[B]Run/pass balance is not often the CAUSE of losing, it is most often a RESULT of losing.[/B]

If you come out in the first half and average 2.0 yards per carry behind an offensive line that isn't getting any movement, and your defense lets up two TDs, then you'd be insane to keep trying the exact same thing. Game situation and in-game adjustments may dictate that you have to throw more often.

Some might say well you shouldn't abandon the run because it wears down the defense and gives you an advantage in the 4th quarter. That's a luxury you can afford only if you're leading or within one score.

The way to bring run/pass ratio into balance isn't to call more running plays, it's to... run the ball better.

A more effective offensive line is what makes that possible. If we see the Redskins blocking effectively early in games and still get away from the run, then Jay should be fired. But I highly doubt he'll do that because while I don't think he's anything special as a coach, he's not an idiot. If our offensive line moves (including Bill Callahan) are effective, then we should see the run pass balance improve. That [U]wouldn't[/U] be an indicator that Jay's playcalling won us any games.

I view our run/pass ratio this year to be an indicator of how effective our offensive line is. That's equally on McCloughan and Gruden - McCloughan to the extent he picked the players, and Gruden to the extent he and Callahan coached them.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=Meks;1113566]He did say there would be some re working of the offense...
[/quote]He being Jay?

I recall Bruce Allen hinting here: [url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/15409/bruce-allen-says-changes-coming-to-redskins-offense]Bruce Allen says changes coming to Washington Redskins' offense - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN[/url] that there would be changes to the offense but I don't recall hearing anything like that come from Jay. And on the whole I don't put a lot credit into 'soundbite' Bruce who like his father, is a master of not giving up any real information. (except Bruce is way smooth about it) So I tend not to put much stock in those hints from Bruce. Now if Jay, the HC/playcaller, hinted at changes that would be meaningful to me.

I would be interested to know/read what Jay said I may have missed it because I was out of the media loop for a week around the draft time.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[QUOTE=Skinzman;1113567]I personally think defense has a say in those ratios. San fran and Seattle have defenses that dont need an offense to score 30 points to win a game (they also have/had top running backs. Seattle having the best in the business). The GB one does surprise me though. Maybe defenses just concentrate to much on Aaron Rodgers and they are smart enough to see it. Granted Lacy is starting to come into his own. If we show defensive improvement, I think that number drops. If our defense is still bad, that number stays high.[/QUOTE]I agree that no doubt quality of defense (and special teams) plays a role in pass/run ratios. I would tend to agree that pass/run ratio are not the end all/be all indicator of HC/playcaller philosophy.

But, I would also argue that external factors like defense/special teams doesn't have an overriding impact on the playcaller/HC preference when it comes to pass/run ratios.

An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach.

Another example, speaking of defense, is Jay Gruden/Cinci def. I posted Jay's/Cinci's pass/run ratio's early but i'll post them below with defense ranking.
2014 w/o Jay: 52% pass--def rank 12th

2013 w/Jay: 57% pass--def rank 5th
2012 w/Jay: 58% pass--def rank 8th
2011 w/Jay: 56% pass--def rank 9th

So, in 2014 the Bengals defense was ranked 12th, their worst in 4 seasons, but had a [U][I]lower[/I][/U] pass ratio then the 3 previous seasons with better defenses. They actually ran the ball more in 2014 even though their defense was the worse.

Or you could take a look at the Jets 25.1 PPG/24th ranked def vs Tampa 25.6 PPG/ 25th ranked def. Their defensive rankings are almost the same yet the there was a huge disparity in their the pass % the Jets were 52% pass the Bucs were 62% pass.

But an even more nuanced (although I don't 100% agree with their splits for 'expected' pass situations) comes from PFF. They have a great stat which I hope they repeat for this year on situational playcall expectations:

[url]https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/06/24/situational-play-calling/[/url]

Agree or disagree it makes an interesting read for the football nerds. But they did there fancy stats thing for pass ratio for 2013 and even by their metrics Cinci/Jay came out pass focused not to an extreme level like Dallas but still pass focused. Now, Dallas is interesting because although they were extremely pass focused in 2013 there was a paradigm shift we all witnessed this year and it will be interesting to see where there values are this year. But even looking at the raw numbers Dallas went from 65% pass in 2013 to 50% pass in 2014. This shift in philosophy also had complementary effect on their time of possession and defense which was terrible in 2013 and with arguably even less talent in 2014(no ware/hatcher) the defense improved.

I say all this to say that playcaller/HC preference has a strong impact on pass/run ratio outcomes. I am not making a value judgement as to which style is better. Both pass heavy and run heavy can effective provided the offenses are efficient and score points. All I'm saying right now is that pass/run ratio outcomes are of course impacted situationally by defense and special teams but imo to deny the role playercaller/HC volition in the outcomes would be inaccurate assumption.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=30gut;1113601]He being Jay?

I recall Bruce Allen hinting here: [url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/15409/bruce-allen-says-changes-coming-to-redskins-offense]Bruce Allen says changes coming to Washington Redskins' offense - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN[/url] that there would be changes to the offense but I don't recall hearing anything like that come from Jay. And on the whole I don't put a lot credit into 'soundbite' Bruce who like his father, is a master of not giving up any real information. (except Bruce is way smooth about it) So I tend not to put much stock in those hints from Bruce. Now if Jay, the HC/playcaller, hinted at changes that would be meaningful to me.

I would be interested to know/read what Jay said I may have missed it because I was out of the media loop for a week around the draft time.[/quote]

It was in an article I read, can't recall where few weeks maybe a month back, touched on the read option with Robert, having a better success running and "re-tooling" or tweaking the offense a little... Can't recall where though

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Thats because his scheme was all screens and short dropoffs. We didnt stretch the field as much as we should have imo. A few times i literally called it like if we bomb it here its money and boom djax over the top. I just think we need to develop a rapport and well move the ball and score often with jays scheme its just such a jailbreak scheme literally.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

I pray that McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=HailGreen28;1113691]The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

[B]I pray that McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.[/B][/quote]

I don't think there's a ton of doubt there. Sure, people will wonder and never truly know how close the two are, but from the outside looking in they seem to be working together. A lot of the same things being said by both of them etc.

I also recall one of McCloughan's first press conferences where he stressed the importance of working with coaches and getting players that fit not only the head coaches description but also the positional coaches descriptions.

We've seen a lot of big talk around Redskins park with no results, with McCloughan on board I feel we're closer than ever to getting some legitimate results to back all the off season chatter.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=HailGreen28;1113691]The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run.[/quote]Agreed, never said different.

[quote]As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?[/quote]Certainly playcalling is up to the HC.

You could be absolutely right and McCloughan influence may not extend to offensive philospohy. I am guessing you've heard Scott's numerous comments about the style of football he wants? Scott's comments in relation to Jay's tendencies is the crux of my question in this discussion thread. Whether or not there will be a change in playcalling/gameplan.

And guessing by your statement above about the limits of Scott's influence you aren't expecting a paradigm shift in offensive philosophy to something more similar to that of Seattle or 49ers?

My only aim in this thread was to have a discussion about what next year's offensive philosophy(pass heavy/balanced/run heavy) might be.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=HailGreen28;1113691]The title of this thread puzzles me. I assume McCloughan is drafting for our system, offense, defense, special teams. The schemes that our coaches run. If Gruden wants better power run blocking, McCloughan should draft accordingly, and vice versa if pass blocking. Even going "BPA", it's based on your system. If BPA overall is a small but fast 3-4 inside linebacker, but you run a 4-3, he's probably not BPA on your board.

As far as playcalling, that's up to coach. The only influence McCloughan has is how well the players he drafts can run the play, right?

I pray that [B]McCloughan and Gruden are on the same page period[/B]. Otherwise we will continue to suck regardless of who "follows whose lead" in the front office. I hate that there is any doubt about this.[/quote]
Do you really believe this could have been......overlooked?
And if Jay cannot make it happen, guess what the next competition is?

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=30gut;1113602]An easy example for me is Mike Shanahan. I was (don't stone me) a huge fan of Mike Shanahan's Denver WCO and during his tenure in Denver, through all manner or defenses and QBs and RBs his pass/run ratio was: 48 run / 52 pass. Mike Shanahan is a run oriented coach....[/quote]
[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/audio/grant-and-danny/]Audio « CBS DC[/url]

Intersting comments from Mike Shanahan on whether or not Alfred Morris has regressed last year:
[quote=Mike Shanahan]"The question is how much do you believe in the running game? How many attempts are you going to have per game?....Its a mindset"[/quote]

Mike goes on to talk about the...Redskins (SB era) ran the ball ~31 times a game and only had YPC 4.1 but their running game set-up big plays through their play-action game.
-----------------------------------------------------------
[url=http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/05/22/mike-shanahan-opens-up-about-rgiii-snyder-read-option/]Mike Shanahan Opens Up About RGIII, Snyder, Read-Option « CBS DC[/url]

Shanahan expressed little surprise that Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan said he’d received little trade interest for Cousins this offseason. But that doesn’t change his opinion of the quarterback, Shanahan said – especially if he lands in a situation [B][U][COLOR="SeaGreen"]where a team puts a bigger emphasis on the running game.[/COLOR][/U][/B]
“I think Kirk Cousins will be a big-time player for a lot of years in the National Football League,” Shanahan said.
He later added: “I’ve seen first hand what he can do and [B][COLOR="SeaGreen"]once he gets a team with a little balance he’ll have a very successful NFL career.”[/COLOR][/B]

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Shanahan's quarterback track, post Elway, leaves a lot to be desired. Plus he harbors a grudge against Griffin. That plays a big factor in his endorsement of Cousins.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=Bishop Hammer;1113744]Shanahan's quarterback track, post Elway, leaves a lot to be desired. Plus he harbors a grudge against Griffin. That plays a big factor in his endorsement of Cousins.[/quote]You missed my point in the above posts. I couldn't care less about Mike's comments about Kirk.

The point I was trying to illustrate is Mike Shanahan (with a career run/pass ratio of ~50/50) basically questioning Jay's commitment to the running game and his lack of balance in play calling. Which was part of the question being addressed in the OP whether Jay's play calling married up to Scott's run focused philosophy.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

IMO Jay wanted to show everyone my passing attack can win games. Granted we where behind early in a lot of games. This year our OLine dictates run, run, run, run and pas.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=NYCskinfan82;1113751]IMO Jay wanted to show everyone my passing attack can win games. Granted we where behind early in a lot of games. This year our OLine dictates run, run, run, run and pas.[/quote]Do you think Jay will adjust and become more run focused? Or maintain his pass focus? If you had to guess at pass% what you think 60%, 55%, under 55%?

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=30gut;1113759]Do you think Jay will adjust and become more run focused? Or maintain his pass focus? If you had to guess at pass% what you think 60%, 55%, under 55%?[/quote]

I want to say 50% run/pass but if the run, run, run, run and pass works. What are you thinking/guessing/predicting ?

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=NYCskinfan82;1113843]I want to say 50% run/pass but if the run, run, run, run and pass works. What are you thinking/guessing/predicting ?[/quote]
I think that Jay will be Jay; he's a WCO guy, former QB and he has some good concepts in his passing offense. So I doubt we'll see a Cowboys style paradigm shift from pass heavy to run heavy in one season. But with all this rhetoric and improvements to the run game (coaching and personnel) I would guess Jay will run the ball more moving from a 40% clip last year to a 44% clip.

It would be awesome if we were 50% run though.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Your probably right. We have a WR that can take the roof of any DF so run in the 40 - 45% is realistic.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[url=http://www.dchotread.com/2015/05/28/redskins-must-run#close]A 50/50 Split for the Redskins[/url]

A 50/50 SPLIT FOR THE REDSKINS

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=30gut;1113965][url=http://www.dchotread.com/2015/05/28/redskins-must-run#close]A 50/50 Split for the Redskins[/url]

A 50/50 SPLIT FOR THE REDSKINS[/quote]

Run the hell out of the ball, play good D, and we just might be somewhat respectable.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[url=http://realredskins.com/2015/05/29/need-to-know-should-the-redskins-have-run-more-on-third-and-short/]Need to Know: Should the Redskins have run more on third and short? | Rich Tandler's Real Redskins[/url]

More advanced metrics related to run/pass ratio for the football nerds

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

All this talk about power running is fine. But remember we still have question marks at four positions. The right side will have new starters that are unproven. Kory L isn't moving any nose tackles off the line. Shawn L was a disappointment. Even Trent is coming off a so so year for him. Usually when you have this many question marks it means the line will struggle and I think it will.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1113989]All this talk about power running is fine. But remember we still have question marks at four positions. The right side will have new starters that are unproven. Kory L isn't moving any nose tackles off the line. Shawn L was a disappointment. Even Trent is coming off a so so year for him. Usually when you have this many question marks it means the line will struggle and I think it will.[/quote]

Then again,
we have acquired best O-line coach in the league.
Drafted the Best O-lineman in the league
Some recent draft products may likely come to fruition
So...maybe All This Talk has...roots
And I think it does

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[QUOTE=skinsfan69;1113989]All this talk about power running is fine. But remember we still have question marks at four positions. The right side will have new starters that are unproven. Kory L isn't moving any nose tackles off the line. Shawn L was a disappointment. Even Trent is coming off a so so year for him. Usually when you have this many question marks it means the line will struggle and I think it will.[/QUOTE]
I have a lot of faith in Callahan as an OLine coach. He's one of those guys who are so good at their position coaching that he won't stay around long. Look at Dallas' line. I think it was worse than ours a few years ago and now its a strength. Add a strong draft pick and a top 5 LT and our line will be much improved. It may take one more draft to make it a top line but it is a lot closer now than it was.

Sent from my S6 Edge

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=skinsfan69;1113989]All this talk about power running is fine. But remember we still have question marks at four positions. The right side will have new starters that are unproven. Kory L isn't moving any nose tackles off the line. Shawn L was a disappointment. Even Trent is coming off a so so year for him. Usually when you have this many question marks it means the line will struggle and I think it will.[/quote]

For sure bro. I have had my expectations dashed so many times I have learned to temper them until I actually see something.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/17646/alfred-morris-on-power-run-game-right-up-my-alley]Redskins RB Alfred Morris on power run game: 'right up my alley' - Washington Redskins Blog - ESPN[/url]
Redskins coach Jay Gruden has made it clear Morris is their man.

"Alfred is our feature back, obviously," he said, "but in the NFL nowadays it's important to have two, three guys that can carry the ball. If you want to commit to running the football, you've got to have a couple guys that can tote it, so Matt will just add to the number."

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1113994]I have a lot of faith in Callahan as an OLine coach. He's one of those guys who are so good at their position coaching that he won't stay around long. Look at Dallas' line. I think it was worse than ours a few years ago and now its a strength. Add a strong draft pick and a top 5 LT and our line will be much improved. It may take one more draft to make it a top line but it is a lot closer now than it was.

Sent from my S6 Edge[/quote]

Great observation.

What reason was given for his split with Dallas?

It's a lateral move so there was a falling out somewhere.

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

Difference between Dallas line with bill c and our line is I'm pretty sure they have multiple #1 picks on that line and a solid vet as well? I have hope, but we better hope that motivation and technical coaching builds more muscles in our guys lol...

Re: Will Jay's offense follow Scott's lead?
 

[QUOTE=DYoungJelly;1114009]Great observation.

What reason was given for his split with Dallas?

It's a lateral move so there was a falling out somewhere.[/QUOTE]
He had playcalling duties stripped when they brought in Scot Linehan, and I think his contract expired so he left. I don't know that it was bad blood just a mutual parting of the way.

Sent from my S6 Edge