Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Whenever a huge deal is signed like this the fan base is right to be concerned about the impact on the salary cap and our ability to retain our own players. But there's almost no information out there, so all you get is consternation and fear. I'm in corporate finance and understand how the salary cap works, so I can help. Here in this thread I'm going to put a series of posts addressing this:
[INDENT]A) How much cap room do we have in 2017 as things stand today, including an estimate for Norman

B) Which players are included on that roster, where are the holes

C) Estimate how much it will cost to resign our own

D) Estimate the cap room after resigning our own[/INDENT]
I'll continue adding posts here. Stay tuned.

[B][U]2017 Cap Space[/U][/B]
[INDENT]2016 NFL Salary Cap: $155.3M
[U]Projected 5% Increase (conservative): $7.8M[/U]
2017 Projected NFL Salary Cap: $163.1M

2017 Redskins Cap Total: $107.0M
[U]Assumed 2017 Cap Hit, Josh Norman: $13M[/U]
2017 Redskins Cap Total with Norman: $120M[/INDENT]
[B][SIZE="3"]Projected 2017 Cap Space: $43.1M[/SIZE][/B]

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Offensive Line:[/U]
[INDENT]LT Trent Williams
LG Shawn Lauvao
C Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Morgan Moses

T Depth Takoby Cofield
G/C Depth Spencer Long, Arie Kouandjio, Austin Reiter[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Ty Nsekhe[/B]

We're pretty good here. We'll see what we do in the 2016 draft at center. I like Nsekhe as depth, he shouldn't be expensive to resign.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Quarterback:[/U]
[INDENT]QB 1
QB 2 Colt McCoy
QB 3[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Kirk Cousins[/B]

Duh. Let's assume Cousins is deemed worth of a long term deal, next season signing a deal worth $22M per season over five years, just for the purposes of estimating a cap impact. Projected 2017 cap hit: $15.0M.

QB 3 will probably get addressed in the 2016 draft.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Running Backs:[/U]
[INDENT]RB 1 Matt Jones
RB 2
RB 3
RB 4[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Chris Thompson[/B]

Position of significant need, this season and big time next year. Hard to project cap impact, but look for McLoughan to draft RBs this year and next. Also keep an eye on Pierre Thomas.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Wide Receivers:[/U]
[INDENT]WR 1
WR 2
WR 3 Jamison Crowder
WR 4 Ryan Grant
WR 5
WR 6[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Rashad Ross[/B]
[INDENT][I]Note: Andre Roberts is actually currently under contract for 2017, but I'm going to just assume he is cut.[/I][/INDENT]
This is obviously a spot where big decisions need to be made. Ross will be exclusive rights, so the cost to resign him would be very low. What the Skins decide to do here at WR depends largely on what they do in the 2016 draft. For these purposes let's assume they resign both Jackson and Garcon.
[INDENT]Cutting Andre Roberts clears: $4.0M
[U]Signing Jackson and Garcon (estimated): ($15.0M)[/U]
Net Cap Hit: ($11.0M)[/INDENT]

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Tight Ends:[/U]
[INDENT]TE 1
TE 2 Niles Paul
TE 3
TE 4[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Logan Paulsen[/B]

Reed is a must keep. I'm actually going to assume he gets our franchise tag in 2017, since I think it's likely McCloughan will have consternation about giving a huge deal to a player with big injury history. But he's a stud and they won't want to lose him. I think that negotiation follows the Cousins pattern, prove it one more time.

Vernon Davis and Paulsen, I don't know, what would you do? Again depends on the 2016 draft. This time I'm going to assume they let Davis walk and keep Paulsen on a low salary deal.
[INDENT]Franchising Reed: ($10.0M)
[U]Paulsen: ($1.0M)[/U]
Total Cap Hit: ($11.0M)[/INDENT]

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Defensive Line:[/U]
[INDENT]DL
DL Ricky Jean Francois
DL Stephen Paea[/INDENT]
Depth: Trent Murphy

[B]Players up for Free Agency: Chris Baker, Kendall Reyes, Ziggy Hood, Kedric Golston[/B]

This group obviously needs a ton of investment. I think we all know McCloughan will come out of the 2016 draft with a DL capable of starting by 2017, if not two of them.

Baker will be 29 next year. What do you do? Impossible to call it now, but let's just assume they resign him for a cap hit of $5.0M (a slight raise). The other departing guys are vet min types, so it's a wash as to whether you replace them with draft picks or resign them.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Linebackers:[/U]
[INDENT]Edge: Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith, Houston Bates
Middle: Mason Foster, Martrell Spaight[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Junior Galette, Perry Riley, Will Compton, Adam Hayward, Terence Garvin[/B]

You can't have enough edge rushers, I'm going to assume Galette earns a pretty big deal from McCloughan. I think they let Riley Hayward and Garvin go, and resign Compton. The rest is filled in via the draft.

Resigning Galette: ($8.0M)
[U]Resigning Compton: ($4.0M)[/U]
Total Cap Hit: ($12.0M)

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Defensive Backs:[/U]
[INDENT]Corners: Josh Norman, Baushad Breeland, Chris Culliver, Will Blackmon, Quinton Dunbar, Deshazor Everett
Safeties: DeAngelo Hall, David Bruton, Kyshoen Jarrett[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Greg Toler (like we care), Duke Ihenacho[/B]

Suddenly corner is nice and crowded. Safety is a need. Everett may convert, and I think it's highly likely McCloughan does something at safety in 2016's draft.

I'm actually going to assume that by 2017 Culliver is gone, mostly because I think Dunbar will develop some, and Jarrett provides the flexibility to come down and cover the slot. You just shouldn't pay Culliver that much to be your #3 CB, doesn't make sense. I like him, but resources. The rest I think is just draft, I see us letting the pending free agents walk.

Cutting Culliver frees: $6.8M

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Who is on the 2017 roster, and where are the holes?

[U]Specialists:[/U]
[INDENT]P Tress Way
K Dustin Hopkins
LS[/INDENT]
[B]Players up for Free Agency: Nick Sundberg[/B]

Need a long snapper. Give Sundberg a million, he's good.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Nice breakdown but looks like that 40+M cap room gets used fast

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Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

So in conclusion, we start with 43M in space. We shed the contracts of Culliver and Roberts, creating another 10.8M in space. Then all the resignings I listed total up to (59M).

So yes, it uses all that space to keep EVERYBODY.

But here's the reality, somebody will disappoint us this year. McCloughan will let somebody go because they got hurt or performance dropped or something. That's just basic portfolio theory.

And I'm not even counting other cap saving moves. I have Lichtensteiger on this roster. And Lauvao. And Paea. Could they be replaced over the course of two drafts?

My point here is that keeping our core studs is not a problem. If you were worried about keeping Galette, Reed, and Cousins, don't. The space is there. The rest are decisions, do you keep Jackson and Garçon or do you find other options? If you really want to keep them it can be done.

The space goes fast, for sure. But holes will also be filled as McCloughan drafts twice. So, you get your cake and eat it too, Norman does not mean we lose our studs. But this is probably our big free agent move for the next couple seasons. Over the next two years it's draft and resign our own, just how McCloughan likes it.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

I'm done, discuss away. I hope this was helpful.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Good stuff. :woot:

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

i think 8m in the first year for dj/jg/pg is probably a bit optimistic (well, maybe not pg). i know norman is getting that, but he's counting 20m/17m in the next two years. we'll still need mid level guys and a draft class next year, which eats up ~15m or so.

so technically you might be able to keep everyone and bump the bigger parts of their contracts into 2017/2018, but realistically, norman probably ends up costing us PG or galette (as well as culliver, but meh).

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=That Guy;1142257]i think 8m in the first year for dj/jg/pg is probably a bit optimistic (well, maybe not pg). i know norman is getting that, but he's counting 20m/17m in the next two years. we'll still need mid level guys and a draft class next year, which eats up ~15m or so.

so technically you might be able to keep everyone and bump the bigger parts of their contracts into 2017/2018, but realistically, norman probably ends up costing us PG or galette (as well as culliver, but meh).[/quote]

Why optimistic? A deal worth $12M per year over four years would usually carry a cap hit of $8M in the first year.

Garcon definitely would not get that much. Jackson might.

But I should revise this once the team drafts next week, and makes a few moves on veterans. The landscape will change.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Per Rich Tandler

$8 million cap hit for Norman this year. Means #Redskins have about $3.5 million. Will need to make moves but not immediately.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Andre Roberts once healthy is probably the only move really needed.

But That Guy, Norman's cap hit in this first year is only $8M and he's got a $75M deal. If we want to keep Cousins, Reed, both WRs, Galette, and Baker, it is very doable. I was conservative in my estimates. I mean my assumptions here have Reed being franchised, which is as conservative as it gets. If they sign him to a long term deal the cap hit may only be $6M instead of $10M.

We're good.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

We are good IF the team hits on their picks, builds the other areas through the draft and gets our guys signed before they can test the market. I like the signing but even by Schneed's numbers it is going to keep us out of big time FA plays next year. (That isn't necessarily a bad thing)

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Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Good work here schneed.

The contract is large but as predicted its not gonna put us in a bad position for the future

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Schneed10;1142260]Andre Roberts once healthy is probably the only move really needed.

But That Guy, Norman's cap hit in this first year is only $8M and he's got a $75M deal. If we want to keep Cousins, Reed, both WRs, Galette, and Baker, it is very doable. I was conservative in my estimates. I mean my assumptions here have Reed being franchised, which is as conservative as it gets. If they sign him to a long term deal the cap hit may only be $6M instead of $10M.

We're good.[/quote]

there is no chance they keep both WRs in 2017.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=CRedskinsRule;1142280]We are good IF the team hits on their picks, builds the other areas through the draft and gets our guys signed before they can test the market. I like the signing but even by Schneed's numbers it is going to keep us out of big time FA plays next year. (That isn't necessarily a bad thing)

Sent from my SM-P550 using Tapatalk[/quote]
None of this matters anyways if we don't draft well so no use in worrying about it too much at this point.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Irrefutable;1142284]there is no chance they keep both WRs in 2017.[/quote]

I would agree fully. But they could if they wanted. I'd rather keep one and go younger at the other spot. I think McCloughan would probably agree.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=FRPLG;1142285]None of this matters anyways if we don't draft well so no use in worrying about it too much at this point.[/quote]

Exactly. If we whiff in the draft we will suck no matter what.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Nice job Schneed...I think you're assumptions are definitely conservative, which gives even more validity to the fact that we have True football people running the organization. They have even more wiggle room than you factored in.

Yes Norman was a little pricey, compared to others on the roster.
But, The BEST of anything is expensive....that's the way supply & demand works.

We have one of the BEST CB's now and yes we agreed to pay for it. But, I think Schneed makes it perfectly clear....and this is the key point...we did not over extend to add him.

Sleep well Redskin fans, sleep well...we're in great shape!

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Some contract analysis for overthecap.com.

[URL]http://overthecap.com/josh-norman-salary-cap-analytics/#more-11898[/URL]

And

[URL]http://overthecap.com/thoughts-josh-normans-75-million-contract/#more-11904[/URL]

I guess the sum of it is we must really have wanted him, and we paid full retail for him.


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Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

I don't think we over paid for him, but I have my reservations. If Scot led the way on this instead of you know who I'm fine with it though. Plus if the rumors of built in exit strategies are true I don't see any reason not to like it.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

The key is the signing bonus is very low, only $15M. It's really not much more complicated than that - if you've got a low signing bonus then there's less dead money when you release a guy. They can get away before he's too old, if they wish.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Stop it! Just stop it right now, all you Nervous Nellies!

Dan Snyder is not making the calls on which FA's we go after. We know who can play and who can't. We know who fits our system and who doesn't. We no longer sign turds. We no longer write bad contracts that don't have exit clauses. We know how to manage the cap.

Vinny is not hiding in a closet at Redskins Park ready to jump out at any moment and convince Dan Snyder to do something stupid. There is no Bogey Man. You can relax now and sleep blissfully.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

I am with KI.

It's not to say McCloughan won't whiff on a move, but the point is he will whiff on fewer than most.

As much as I love the Norman signing, and I do, we all know our fate is heavily tied to the career path of a different player... Cousins. It really is all about him this year, is he for real, is he the leader for the next 10 years, is he capable of taking us deep in the playoffs with clutch play in the biggest moments.

McCloughan will continue to build around Cousins and this Norman signing does just that. But we live and die on the arm of Captain Kirk. I wouldn't have it any other way, it feels like a great time to be a fan.

:httr:

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Schneed10;1142260]Andre Roberts once healthy is probably the only move really needed.

But That Guy, Norman's cap hit in this first year is only $8M and he's got a $75M deal. If we want to keep Cousins, Reed, both WRs, Galette, and Baker, it is very doable. I was conservative in my estimates. I mean my assumptions here have Reed being franchised, which is as conservative as it gets. If they sign him to a long term deal the cap hit may only be $6M instead of $10M.

We're good.[/quote]

i understand norman is only counting 8m this year, but year 2-3 count for a total of 37m. when you count in the ~15m you spend every year on roster fill signings, it seems like logically in the long term plan, at least one big deal probably has to go to keep any kind of flexibility. there's also a chance baker REALLY breaks outs too, but i guess the whole exercise is fraught with speculation.


if someone does have to go, pg is the most replaceable and jg has the highest chance of either not showing enough or asking too much. I'm assuming culliver/roberts will end up going, and lavau or lichtensteiger are also candidates for release.

I do appreciate the work, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. the season, like you said, can end up making some of these decisions pretty easy as far as who stays and who doesn't.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Agree. If everyone plays well enough to deserve big deals, that's a cap problem, but it's also a nice problem because it means we will have had a very good 2016 season.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Nice? Losing our great players is nice?
I hate the salary Cap. Worst that ever happened to NFL.
Great teams that do everything right get broken up...because of money. Money most great teams would be willing to pay to keep their own, but are not allowed. All because the cheap owners are cheap.
I think temas should be allowed to exceed the Salary cap to keep their own players, but should be allowed to exceed it to sign Free Agents.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Defensewins;1142304]Nice? Losing our great players is nice?
I hate the salary Cap. Worst that ever happened to NFL.
Great teams that do everything right get broken up...because of money. Money most great teams would be willing to pay to keep their own, but are not allowed. All because the cheap owners are cheap.
I think temas should be allowed to exceed the Salary cap to keep their own players, but should be allowed to exceed it to sign Free Agents.[/quote]

so you sign a FA to a $1 deal, then, because he's now "your" player, resign him to whatever you want.

you either have a cap or you don't. the parity is good for the league, cause it means everyone has a chance to improve, which gives fans of every team a reason to watch every year. it also controls costs, which is good for business.

in the 1970s there were 30 major soccer teams in the US, but because the cosmos spent more money than they actually made (the atari guy was pumping in his personal money), other teams also had to also sign big names they couldn't afford. the whole thing went belly up. hockey also had problems and had to add a cap to control expenses, since teams were losing money (including the caps, ted blogged about the whole thing).

I mean, you can hate it if you want, but it's not going away. the south park guys did a pretty good job of explaining why leagues without free agency are kind of terrible in baseketball (of all things).

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Schneed10;1142303]Agree. If everyone plays well enough to deserve big deals, that's a cap problem, but it's also a nice problem because it means we will have had a very good 2016 season.[/quote]

I read a month or so ago that the cap was expected to go up. Any idea when and how much?

The cap may not be as tight as anticipated even if several of the recently drafted players emerge as stars.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=DYoungJelly;1142311]I read a month or so ago that the cap was expected to go up. Any idea when and how much?

The cap may not be as tight as anticipated even if several of the recently drafted players emerge as stars.[/quote]

Yeah definitely, it's good for a five percent increase at the very least. They never announce it this far in advance, but it goes up every year.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

Keim in agreement, they can afford to keep their own.

[url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/24676/signing-josh-norman-wont-prevent-a-long-term-deal-with-kirk-cousins-others]Signing Josh Norman won't prevent deal with Kirk Cousins - Washington Redskins Blog- ESPN[/url]

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Schneed10;1142347]Keim in agreement, they can afford to keep their own.

[url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/24676/signing-josh-norman-wont-prevent-a-long-term-deal-with-kirk-cousins-others]Signing Josh Norman won't prevent deal with Kirk Cousins - Washington Redskins Blog- ESPN[/url][/quote]

I also think that the team is confident they'll get a deal done with Cousins, which will help with the cap situation this year.

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Schneed10;1142347]Keim in agreement, they can afford to keep their own.

[url=http://espn.go.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/24676/signing-josh-norman-wont-prevent-a-long-term-deal-with-kirk-cousins-others]Signing Josh Norman won't prevent deal with Kirk Cousins - Washington Redskins Blog- ESPN[/url][/quote]

"If Chris Culliver somehow isn't on the roster in 2017, then it saves another $8 million." That's a lot of money for a 3rd string CB...just saying!

Re: Cap Implications of Josh Norman
 

[quote=Bangee7;1142379]"If Chris Culliver somehow isn't on the roster in 2017, then it saves another $8 million." That's a lot of money for a 3rd string CB...just saying![/quote]

#3, not 3rd string. if we're in nickel on the first play, he's still a starter.