Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

[URL="http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/2008/04/the_numbers_dont_lie_version_2.html"]The Numbers Don't Lie, Version 2.0: Don't Believe The Hype - Redskins Insider[/URL][INDENT][I]"Sure, they didn't spend anything on outside players - it was a poor market and they had very limited cap space - but let's not pretend things have truly changed. Guess which NFL team is currently second in the league in signing bonuses money paid in 2008, according to NFL Management Council numbers (which I obtain through league sources)?
Yep, you got it:


1 - Oakland Raiders - $53.8 million
2 - Snyder/Cerrato - $43.5 million (that doesn't even include another $5 million in option bonuses)"[/I]

[/INDENT]JLC is really on point in this article, even if the numbers are a hair off from what CC has here.

He's really pessimistic here though, and one of the thing he's ignoring is that to remain competitive, you have to draft the players [I]first[/I] and get rid of the bad contracts [I]second.

[/I]But the Redskins are really, really, really out on a thin limb on the Portis deal. By the book, it looks like they will get out unscathed, as long as Zorn doesn't run Portis into the ground. But a lot of things can happen between now and 2010. What if CP has a very injury prone year in 2008, and never really gets his feet under him again? Though that would be very unfortunate, it's a realistic fear that could seal Cerrato's fate, and it's probably a risk that could have been avoided.

I think the majority of Vinny's moves by date by and large have been intelligent, and JLC should probably give them more credit and stop trying to write off the current administration before they have a chance to do anything to right the ship. But it's a bit discomforting to be tied to a 26 year old RB for three years, especially with the turnover at the RB position.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

JLC's relevance in the Redskins Locker Room is less and less now since certain people moved on this off-season. And it shows in the tone of his columns. In fact, I thought I had heard somewhere that the Post was looking to replace him as the Redskins Insider sometime in the coming months.

And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

[quote=SmootSmack;441168]And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?[/quote]
He is undersized and has a tremendous amount of carries for a back his age. Plus he has had the shoulder.

I think we will need to see how Zorn uses him, in the WCO he shouldn't take the straight on pounding he did in Gibbs' offense. If that's the case barring something devastating he should be fine for 3yrs.

JLC: Don't Believe the Hype
 

[quote=SmootSmack;441168]JLC's relevance in the Redskins Locker Room is less and less now since [B]certain[/B] people moved on this off-season. And it shows in the tone of his columns. In fact, I thought I had heard somewhere that the Post was looking to replace him as the Redskins Insider sometime in the coming months.

[/quote]

*cough* Earnest Byner *cough*

But yeah, it's starting to get ridiculous over at RI. As I stated before the only reason I really go there anymore is because people post articles from Warpath Insiders as well as a few other sources I don't have access to.

In fact I just looked at his enteries from this time last year, and he wasn't nearly as negative as he has been this offseason, for me the change has been quite off putting and ironically has made me feel sorry for Snyder of all people.

I say it's best if Reid gets a chance to take over the Redskins and the Post makes JLC a beat writer for the Caps, because something big must have happened between JLC and the organization where his reporting is just extremly bias, which to me is bad both ways, but for a local paper it's a little better for a guy to be a bit of homer.

I really wish he took a similar stance to guy like Wilbon or Tony.

I also hate when people say shit like "it's a blog he can write whatever he wants." Maybe it started out as a blog, but it has since become a very popular desitnation for Redskin fans, and I doubt the Post would let JLC shut it down if he wanted to. In fact it's probably become a cash cow for the Post in terms of advertising. In other words JLC needs to be more professional.

But personally all these high and mighty articles are getting a little old. I kind of wish we would stop giving his articles new threads for the time being and just post them in already existing threads until the quality of his articles returns to a level close to where it was during the coaching search.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

What's wrong with being tied to Portis for 3 more years? At 29 he will likely be hitting the back end of his career and we can part with him then. I don't see what's so wrong with that. He's had one season out of 6 where he missed significant time and some people can't see to let that go. For some reason he's now fragile. I don't get it.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

he is the best blocking & hitting back in the league period

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

I'm sorry, but I've pretty much tuned JLC out altogether. I don't mind hard-hitting journalism and critical op-eds. Unfortunately, however, some people conflate whining with good analysis and objectivity. JLC is constantly taking Snyder and Gibbs to task for trivial issues and/or personality differences. I don't like reading articles that sound like they're written by: (1) Redskins Park employees; OR (2) disgruntled journalists with some sort of ax to grind.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

[quote=Mattyk72;441211]What's wrong with being tied to Portis for 3 more years? At 29 he will likely be hitting the back end of his career and we can part with him then. I don't see what's so wrong with that. He's had one season out of 6 where he missed significant time and some people can't see to let that go. For some reason he's now fragile. I don't get it.[/quote]


I dont understand it either but people just seem to think that he is fragile and withered away.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

[quote=SmootSmack;441168]And GTripp, you sure are pretty gung-ho on this whole "Portis is past his prime, due to get a debilitating injury any day now because we use him too much" idea aren't you?[/quote]Speaking statistically, we all should be.

In the case of Portis, he's 26 going on 27, and he consistently does a good job protecting his legs. Both of those things are reasons that justify the financial implications of his new deal.

All Running Backs need to get pretty lucky to avoid injury every season. When they are in the lineup, a great running back can make a pretty big difference in terms of just how good an offense is. Portis is a runner who has had three [U]great[/U] seasons: 2002, 2003, and 2005.

I think he is primed for a big 2008 season. But what if he gets banged up? I mean, look what happened to Shaun Alexander after he got his new deal in 2006. Alexander was a better back than Portis in his prime, and now he's pretty much garbage at the age of 30.

The point is that Portis is a good bet to have a career year this season, but if he happens to get banged up, then Cerrato looks like an absolute fool for investing so much in him ahead of time.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

But I thought you liked Rock? If I remember right, you don't like Betts right? Either way, I'm not too concerned about CP right now

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

Let me pose this question back to you all. If the Steelers had given Willie Parker an extension prior to this season with 20 million dollars guarenteed, what would we be saying about that deal right now, with the guy coming off a broken leg and a season in which Najeh Davenport was far more effective?

Portis is probably a better football player than Parker because he does all the little things very well, but their running production over their careers with their current teams are pretty similar. And at the end of the day, you are paying a RB to carry the ball, and getting blocking and receiving ability as a bonus.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

[quote=SmootSmack;441270]But I thought you liked Rock? If I remember right, you don't like Betts right? Either way, I'm not too concerned about CP right now[/quote]I think Rock would be a good second option. I think Betts would be a good second option also, but Betts is on a deal that averages over 2 million a year, and Rock is playing for the league min.

The point wasn't that Portis shouldn't be starting, the point is that you want to have the contextual flexibility to go another direction if Portis loses effectiveness.

Is a running back supposed to lose effectiveness before age 29? No he's not, but he does play the most physically demanding position in sports, and he doesn't do a whole lot of good if he--for whatever reason--can't play.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

Geez we get it already JLC! Now get off your high horse.

I am consistently baffled by the inabilities of journalists to understand finances in this league. There are two ways to handle the cap. Ours requires cash on hand AND IS COMPLETELY SUSTAINABLE as long as that cash keeps flowing. Yes you pay bonuses and push cap money ahead. Yes it means you have to do this every year, But every year one or two big cap numbers wipe away and the cycle continues. Of course if older guys get hurt it causes cap problems. Guess what...it does for every team. It is a simple numbers game and if you compare our way to say... the Eagles, it would kill them because they don't have the cash to keep something like this up. They can't afford bonuses every year to push money away but we can and do. You'd think the fact that they have been doing this for almost a decade now would show some people that this cap management style does work. But I guess journalists also can't tell the difference between talent evaluation and cap management. They are different things. Not once has this team been worse off in the last decade because of the way we manage the cap. Not once.

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

I would venture to guess that JLC understands it (as do many other journalists) but he's choosing to present the information in a different light.

I think a lot of it is in fact personal, and a lot of it is pressure to churn out stories. But, as the Insider, he should be churning out stories like "Lawrence Jackson will be visiting Redskins coaches tomorrow. Sources tell me the Redskins are talking to the Falcons about a trade that would send their 1st and Antwan Randle El to Atlanta for multiple picks, one of which would be spent on Jackson" (I totally made that rumor up).

That's an "Insider"

Re: Redskin Insider -- Don't Believe the Hype
 

But what if the money dries up?

I think the Skins are banking on the league being uncapped in the future. If 2009 is the final year the NFL ever has a salary cap on, we can push enough money into the future to where we are paying a ton of salary in 2010, and that'll be fine.

Because if that's not the plan, once the cap stops accelerating upward, we won't be able to hold our own roster. I mean, we already can't really add to the team through free agency (although if we want, we should have the cap room for a major move next season).

Actually, the end of the cap would be a wonderful, wonderful thing for the Redskins. Anthony Montgomery, Kedric Golston, Jason Campbell, Carlos Rogers, Reed Doughty, and Rocky McIntosh would all be unrestricted FAs in 2010 if the owners don't back out of the CBA, but if they do, all 6 of those guys would be restricted free agents, and effectively, Redskins through 2011.