fantasy projections
 

I was flipping through a few fantasy mags tonight and I must say I'm impressed with how many Redskins are highly ranked.

Guys like Moss, Portis, Cooley, are all ranked pretty high. Even Randle El and Lloyd had some nice projections but then I came across Mark Brunell.

It seems like the entire fantasy world is down on our boy, MB. I saw two mags that predicted less than 2600 yards for him, and both predicted 15 starts for him. So that's on average 173.33 yards per game for him.

What do you guys think, is MB our weakest link? Will one year make a huge difference in the right or wrong way for Brunell??

I say he's a lock for 3200+ and 24 TDs with the weapons we have now if he plays a full 16 games.

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thats a big if

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What sort of numbers did they project for Moss, Cooley, Randle El and Lloyd? Because it wouldn't make sense to predict high numbers for them but then say less than 2600 for Brunell.

Unless they're saying Campbell or Collins will throw for like 600 yards in the one game Brunell won't start.

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[quote=Mattyk72]I say he's a lock for 3200+ and 24 TDs with the weapons we have now if he plays a full 16 games.[/quote]No doubt. I think the one guy who we have that will be overrated by fantasy standards will be Moss. Randle El, Patten, and Lloyd need to get their stats somewhere (well, maybe they wont, but still) and its not going to cut into Cooley's totals at all. Cooley is the second or third option on a lot of his receptions, and you can be sure that Al will have some plays drawn up to get Cooley the ball in the red zone.

Moss is still top 10, but with all the offensive additions, I would pass on him in drafts this year, unless he slips.

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I agree with you Matty, if Brunell stays healthy all year long, i have no doubts he will have a good season by fantasy standards. All the same, that's a big if because we all know Brunell isn't injury free anymore.

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[quote=TAFKAS]What sort of numbers did they project for Moss, Cooley, Randle El and Lloyd? Because it wouldn't make sense to predict high numbers for them but then say less than 2600 for Brunell.

Unless they're saying Campbell or Collins will throw for like 600 yards in the one game Brunell won't start.[/quote]

Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.

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I think most people are predicting that he will get hurt. The injury he sustained last year wasn't something that was extremely pansy, I mean his knee got hit pretty hard.

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2600 seems low to me. But I wouldn't go expecting much more than 200 per game (on average) from Brunell. If he starts all 16 games, that'd be 3200 yards. I'll say 3400 if he starts all 16, with 3000 being the realistic projection for injury time (so the sub would throw for 400 yds or so while MB is out).

I don't see Santana Moss duplicating last year's performance. I think he gets 1000-1200 this year because now there are other WRs in the system. ARE, Lloyd and Patten are probably good for 700, 500, 200 (which gets which, I have no idea). Cooley probably gets 700 or so. And the rest gets spread around to Portis, Sellers, and Fauria.

I have all the respect in the world for Al Saunders, but folks, this is a new offense. There will be growing pains. I think we have delusions of grandeur if we think Brunell is going to throw for 4000 yds.

Where the offense is going to pick up steam is in the running game, IMO. Portis will break last year's rushing record. Saunders is going to bring this big play mentality, but I betcha a million dollars that when it comes down to crunch time, Gibbs will make the call to lean on Portis.

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I agree Schneed. I can see the offense struggling a bit early on to find it's rhythm, but once they do watch out!

I see big things in store for Portis, and Cooley as well. With all the attention the WRs will face, the underneath stuff should be wide open for Cooley. And with the way Saunders utilizes his TEs, I can definitely see another big season for Cooley. 60+ catches and 10 TDs.

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[quote=Mattyk72]Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.[/quote]

I feel like fantasy mags do this sort of thing a lot. It's like they don't compare positions within a team.

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[QUOTE=Mattyk72]Yeah that's what didn't make sense. They were predicting numbers like 1300 yards from Moss, 800 from Randle El, 600 from Lloyd, and 700 from Cooley. Right there is 3400 yards.[/QUOTE]

Maybe they have Randle El throwing for a few hundred yards on option passes.

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[quote=Mattyk72]I agree Schneed. I can see the offense struggling a bit early on to find it's rhythm, but once they do watch out!

I see big things in store for Portis, and Cooley as well. With all the attention the WRs will face, the underneath stuff should be wide open for Cooley. And with the way Saunders utilizes his TEs, I can definitely see another big season for Cooley. 60+ catches and 10 TDs.[/quote]

Yeah I can see Cooley doing the majority of his damage in the red zone, for sure. And you touch on a good point...

Adding these WRs isn't just about getting more production from the WR position. It's about creating more ways to threaten a defense. If ARE and Lloyd don't come in and put up 800-1000 yards each, I'll bet a lot of people will be disappointed and the media will be screaming that we way overpaid. But really, their presence is designed to open up the entire field, more than anything. If they come in and put up 500-600 yards each, but allow Portis and Cooley to do more damage on the ground and on underneath routes & screens, then the new WRs will have fulfilled their expectations.

The best offenses in history have always been able to threaten a defense in multiple ways. An offense of just Moss, Cooley & Portis like we had at the end of last season can do some damage. But it's a lot harder to shut down 5 or 6 threats than it is to shut down 3.

For fantasy football, Mark Brunell should not be a starting QB in a 12-team league, IMO. But in real life, when he's healthy, I can't think of 10 QBs I'd rather have than him. The NFL is about avoiding turnovers, maintaining possession of the ball, and scoring effectively when you have the chance (red zone TD %). Brunell won't take lots of risks to get himself up to 4000 yards, which is exactly what we want. Efficiency is the key, not statistics. And these two new WRs will make Brunell more efficient. That's how you win ballgames.

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Hey guys, while we are on the topic of fantasy projections, what would you do with this "Keeper League" situation...... Let's say you could keep either Cooley TE or Anquin Boldin at WR. Knowing you have to start 2 WRs and 1 TE, do I keep Boldin and throw Cooley back, or keep Cooley and shop for WRs. Those of you with magazines what are the projections for Boldin?

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[quote=scowan]Hey guys, while we are on the topic of fantasy projections, what would you do with this "Keeper League" situation...... Let's say you could keep either Cooley TE or Anquin Boldin at WR. Knowing you have to start 2 WRs and 1 TE, do I keep Boldin and throw Cooley back, or keep Cooley and shop for WRs. Those of you with magazines what are the projections for Boldin?[/quote]

Anybody home?

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schneed, i agree 100%. when it comes down to crunch time, with the game on the line, good ole mr portis is definitley getting the ball. the one difference i could see is portis catching a ton more passes. the few times they threw the ball to him, his hands looked pretty damn good

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As much as I love Cooley, I would keep Anquan. That's just a gut feeling. I think with Saunders offense that Cooley will put up good TE numbers. Boldin, though, has pretty much already established himself as a very good receiver. Might want to consider Anquan's knee injury from early last year. I don't think you'll be disappointed with keeping either player.

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I should probably clarify this Keeper League. If I keep Boldin, I give up my 6th round pick and he is my 6th round pick. If I keep Cooley, he is my 13th round pick. I am in a Keeper League where we keep 2 players. My first Keeper is Portis, who I drafted in the 3rd round last year, I will give up my 2nd round pick (last year's round + 1 is how we do it) which is a no brainer to me. I guess my real question is which is a better value, Boldin in round 6 or Cooley in round 13.

I guess I am hoping that Warner keeps playing and that Edge down in Arizona makes Boldin better.

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[quote=scowan]I should probably clarify this Keeper League. If I keep Boldin, I give up my 6th round pick and he is my 6th round pick. If I keep Cooley, he is my 13th round pick. I am in a Keeper League where we keep 2 players. My first Keeper is Portis, who I drafted in the 3rd round last year, I will give up my 2nd round pick (last year's round + 1 is how we do it) which is a no brainer to me. I guess my real question is which is a better value, Boldin in round 6 or Cooley in round 13.[/quote]

The sports almanac says that Boldin is going to be paralyzed in week two. Keep Cooley.

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If you don't give my almanac back, it's going to wreck the past!

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[quote=dmek25]schneed, i agree 100%. when it comes down to crunch time, with the game on the line, good ole mr portis is definitley getting the ball. the one difference i could see is portis catching a ton more passes. the few times they threw the ball to him, his hands looked pretty damn good[/quote]

Yeah and the line is athletic enough to spring him on some long screens on occasion.

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Portis is the first back on my fantasy selection. With Fauria and Sellers, I see Portis being able to pound it in MUCH easier this year. I think that Alexander and Portis will go blow-for-blow for rushing champ this year.

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[quote=scowan]I should probably clarify this Keeper League. If I keep Boldin, I give up my 6th round pick and he is my 6th round pick. If I keep Cooley, he is my 13th round pick. I am in a Keeper League where we keep 2 players. My first Keeper is Portis, who I drafted in the 3rd round last year, I will give up my 2nd round pick (last year's round + 1 is how we do it) which is a no brainer to me. I guess my real question is which is a better value, Boldin in round 6 or Cooley in round 13.

I guess I am hoping that Warner keeps playing and that Edge down in Arizona makes Boldin better.[/quote]

Keep Boldin. He's easily one of the top 10 to 15 fantasy WRs in the league going into this year. He should go in the 3rd round of [I]most[/I] 12-team leagues and absolutely no later than the 4th round. Most projections I've seen have Boldin getting around 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs. Cooley will probably only get around 600-800 yards and 6-8 TDs.

You should never expect too much from your TE unless you have Gonzo or Gates. However, Boldin is a guaranteed starter every week for your team.

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I have Fitz doing more of the scoring than Boldin.

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[quote=PSUSkinsFan21]Keep Boldin. He's easily one of the top 10 to 15 fantasy WRs in the league going into this year. He should go in the 3rd round of [I]most[/I] 12-team leagues and absolutely no later than the 4th round. Most projections I've seen have Boldin getting around 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs. Cooley will probably only get around 600-800 yards and 6-8 TDs.

You should never expect too much from your TE unless you have Gonzo or Gates. However, Boldin is a guaranteed starter every week for your team.[/quote]

I agree with PSU (as the lights in my office are about to go out from the storm). You're bascially getting a steal by being able to get Boldin for a 6th rounder, plus you're only giving up a 3rd for Portis. I've never done a keeper league, but I would assume that you have to cinsider who everyone else is keeping and what rounds they are giving up to have them. If the majority of the others are giving up their 1st or 2nd round picks this year, that should put you in a good spot to brab some decent players early on.

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We are not able to keep any of our 1st rounders, so they all go back into the "pot". Of the 2nd round to 15th round (which is the rest of the draft) we can keep any player based on where he was drafted last year plus 1 round. I am kinda leaning with most of you. While Cooley would be a steal giving up only my 13 round pick for a starter at TE, Boldin at round 6 is probably better no matter who the QB in Arizona is. You would like to think that Edge would take away opportunities from Larry Fitgerald and Boldin this year, but I still think the Cards will be playing from behind most games and Boldin will get 70-100+ and a TD every week.

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I think both are steals where they'd get slotted in your draft. Needing 2 WRs makes a little more scarcity there(assuming it isn't a 6 team league or something). On the other hand Cooley is probably comparatively more valuable as a 13th round pick than Boldin with a 6th(again, both are steals though). On the subjective side of things I am a little wary of taking a player whose role is as undetermined as Cooley's. We all assume he is going to occupy a Gonzalez type role in Saudners' offense but we have no evidence to prove that he will or if he does that he will be able to do well with it.

I think Boldin is a the best option for sure.

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You have a good problem. :)

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[quote=FRPLG]I think both are steals where they'd get slotted in your draft. Needing 2 WRs makes a little more scarcity there(assuming it isn't a 6 team league or something). On the other hand Cooley is probably comparatively more valuable as a 13th round pick than Boldin with a 6th(again, both are steals though). On the subjective side of things I am a little wary of taking a player whose role is as undetermined as Cooley's. We all assume he is going to occupy a Gonzalez type role in Saudners' offense but we have no evidence to prove that he will or if he does that he will be able to do well with it.

I think Boldin is a the best option for sure.[/quote]

It is a 10 team league, starting 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE. I will have the last pick in the 1st round,(pick ten) I won my league last year so this is my reward. I am thinking RB. Who do any of you think will be available by then considering that only Larry Johnson will be kept from last year. (Larry was picked latter last year because of Holmes going in the 1st round)

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[quote=scowan]It is a 10 team league, starting 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE. I will have the last pick in the 1st round,(pick ten) I won my league last year so this is my reward. I am thinking RB. Who do any of you think will be available by then considering that only Larry Johnson will be kept from last year. (Larry was picked latter last year because of Holmes going in the 1st round)[/quote]

If you're only starting one RB and you already have Portis, maybe you should use that pick on a good receiver like Steve Smith or Chad Johnson, or Peyton if he's still around. The only reason I could see for taking a top tier running back would be for trade bait.

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[QUOTE=scowan]It is a 10 team league, starting 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE. I will have the last pick in the 1st round,(pick ten) I won my league last year so this is my reward. I am thinking RB. Who do any of you think will be available by then considering that only Larry Johnson will be kept from last year. (Larry was picked latter last year because of Holmes going in the 1st round)[/QUOTE]
At 10 and 11(I assume) I'd take best player available based on some projections/scoring system/scarcity. At 10 you' probably wont be able to get a top tier guy. You're talking the next tier(in my mind) or guys who are simply really good and not mortal locks for good season. Guys like James or Johnson may be there. The top WRs will be there. Peyton certainly wont be. I am not a big first round QB taker but if Peyton is there you almost have to take him.

I think you need to get two top tier type players there and that probably means WR.

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[quote=FRPLG]At 10 and 11(I assume) I'd take best player available based on some projections/scoring system/scarcity. At 10 you' probably wont be able to get a top tier guy. You're talking the next tier(in my mind) or guys who are simply really good and not mortal locks for good season. Guys like James or Johnson may be there. The top WRs will be there. Peyton certainly wont be. I am not a big first round QB taker but if Peyton is there you almost have to take him.

I think you need to get two top tier type players there and that probably means WR.[/quote]

Thanks for the advice FRPLG, I do have 10 and 11. 11 will be Clinton Portis my keeper from last year, so 10 is what I am focusing on. Then it will be picks 30 and 31. I believe our thinking is the same. I will have to get the best available, but I am hoping for at least a 2nd tier RB. I won my league last year with average QBs, but I got S. Alexander in round 1 and Portis in round 3 and they carried my team. Unless a can't miss like Peyton is available, I will probably pass on a QB and go RB. I am scared to wait until the 30 or 31 pick to try and get a RB.

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[QUOTE=scowan]Thanks for the advice FRPLG, I do have 10 and 11. 11 will be Clinton Portis my keeper from last year, so 10 is what I am focusing on. Then it will be picks 30 and 31. I believe our thinking is the same. I will have to get the best available, but I am hoping for at least a 2nd tier RB. I won my league last year with average QBs, but I got S. Alexander in round 1 and Portis in round 3 and they carried my team. Unless a can't miss like Peyton is available, I will probably pass on a QB and go RB. I am scared to wait until the 30 or 31 pick to try and get a RB.[/QUOTE]
What is your scoring system like?

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[quote=scowan]Hey guys, while we are on the topic of fantasy projections, what would you do with this "Keeper League" situation...... Let's say you could keep either Cooley TE or Anquin Boldin at WR. Knowing you have to start 2 WRs and 1 TE, do I keep Boldin and throw Cooley back, or keep Cooley and shop for WRs. Those of you with magazines what are the projections for Boldin?[/quote]The value this year is at TE and RB, espicially if you only play two WR's. Keep Cooley and see if you can add someone better than Boldin in rounds 2-3.

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what kind of (fantasy) season do you guys think jamal lewis will have? will he rebound or just keep on sucking?

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[quote=ArtMonkDrillz]what kind of (fantasy) season do you guys think jamal lewis will have? will he rebound or just keep on sucking?[/quote]He's behind the worst line in the NFL (despit Ogden, so thats really saying something), and his carries are going to tank. Pass on him.

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[quote=GTripp0012]He's behind the worst line in the NFL (despit Ogden, so thats really saying something), and his carries are going to tank. Pass on him.[/quote]

I was jsut posing the question, I don't draft until right before the season. It's funny, last year I think I would have rolled the dice on him with the 5th overall pick if we hadn't waited till after the preseason to draft. I thought he was going to have a good season for some reason, but I'm glad I actually thought that one through. This year, I might spend a late rounder on him if I feel like I don't need a backup tightend.

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Here's a really good question this year: Which Moss do you want on your fantasy team?

Santana or Randy?

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Randy. I think he and Brooks will work well under Art Shell.

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[quote=FRPLG]What is your scoring system like?[/quote]

Less emphasis on QB scoring, here goes.... 3 pts passing TD, 6pts rushing or receiving TD, 10 points for 250 yards passing, 1 point for every 25 yards after, 100 for rushing or receiving yards, 1 point for each 10 yards after.